Trump’s “New Iran Deal” Sounds A Lot Like Obama’s

Summary

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Bulwark Takes – Trump’s “New Iran Deal” Sounds A Lot Like Obama’s

Date: June 14, 2026 | Host: Will Saletan

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Will Saletan from The Bulwark delivers a sharp critique of the Trump Administration’s newly announced Iran deal, arguing that it amounts to little more than a rebranded version of Obama’s original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Through clips of Trump officials and his own pointed commentary, Saletan highlights how the agreement’s substance remains largely unchanged, despite the immense national cost of conflict, and mocks the administration’s claims of victory.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump's “Victory” Announcement [01:00]

• Will Saletan opens with irony: “Donald Trump announced that Iran has surrendered. He said they're going to sign a deal to give us everything we wanted. That's what he said, right?”
• Sets up the episode’s theme: the administration’s big win is largely smoke and mirrors.

2. Terms of the “New” Deal – Déjà Vu? [01:47 – 03:01]

• Clip: [01:47] Pete Hegseth (Sec. of Defense): “The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one.”
  • Saletan: “We already had that in the Obama deal. Huh. …It's just a deal to make another deal.”
  • Critique that the new agreement is essentially a recommitment to previous promises, not a substantive breakthrough.
• Mocking the “deal to make another deal”:
  • “We went to war and we spent all that money…just to get a promise. A promise from Iran to make another promise. How lame is that?” [02:09]

3. The “Wall, Not a Path” Rhetoric [02:55 – 03:27]

• Hegseth: “JCPOA was a path to a bomb. What this deal will be will be a wall to a bomb.”
  • Saletan blasts these talking points as hollow: “This isn’t a wall. This is a promise from Trump and his flunkies…like when Trump said Mexico was going to pay for the wall…this time there isn’t even going to be a wall. There’s just a wall of bullshit.” [03:27]

4. Sanctions and ‘Pay for Performance’ [04:20 – 04:45]

• Waltz: “What's called pay for performance.”
• Saletan immediately notes: the original JCPOA already included this provision:
  • [04:38] “With the JCPOA, they lifted sanctions only after there were verifiable steps toward implementing.”
  • “We already had a pay for performance deal before Trump scrapped that deal and went to war…”

5. Strait of Hormuz and Oil Claims [05:05 – 06:23]

• Waltz on Fox: “Iran cannot and will not have a nuclear weapon…and cannot and will not hold the world's economies hostage with sea mines attacking shipping and trying to charge tolls.”
  • Saletan scoffs: “There were no mines or tolls. So we did all of that. We charged you all of that to get right back to where we were…”
• Hegseth: “We've run 125 million barrels of oil through the straits… How many ships from Iran have transit our blockade? Zero. …We have controlled the straits this entire time.”
  • Saletan: “Do you know how many barrels usually come out of the strait on a normal day? About 20 million. And we went to war more than 100 days ago. So… Hegseth is bragging that we're getting one eighth as much oil out… So apparently Iran can’t do anything except block 7/8 of the oil that would normally come out…” [06:23]

6. Iran “Begging” for a Deal [07:38 – 09:33]

• Hegseth: “Their regime is more devastated... more devastated than it's ever been…they’re at the table.”
  • Saletan: “Look, the Iranians were at the table throughout the talks on the Obama deal, and they were at the table before we launched this war… And after all the blood and money and sacrifice, we're bragging that Iran is coming to the table.” [07:58]
• Waltz: “[With Obama] they begged Iran for a deal and we bombed Iran. This is why you see them coming to the table practically begging for cash. …President Trump's blockade has been enormously effective.”
  • Saletan highlights the contradiction: “They’re begging us, right? But the talks are taking a long time because these beggars are just very tough negotiators. Do you get the feeling that maybe all this talk about begging is just more bullshit?” [09:33]

7. Conclusion – All Spin, No Substance [09:33 – 10:28]

• Saletan: “It’s pretty clear what’s going on here. Trump went into this war without a plan for how to get out of it. So he needs to cut a deal. And it’s not going to be any better than the deal we had before. But Trump can’t admit it. So…this whole administration full of blowhards are going to feed you a bunch of bull about how big and strong this new deal is while they slowly back away.” [09:33–10:28]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will Saletan [02:09]:
  “We went to war and we spent all that money…just to get a promise. A promise from Iran to make another promise. How lame is that?”
• Will Saletan [03:27]:
  “There’s just a wall of bullshit.”
• Will Saletan [06:23]:
  “Hegseth is bragging that we’re getting one eighth as much oil out of the strait as we would normally… So apparently Iran can’t do anything except block 7/8 of the oil…”
• Will Saletan [07:58]:
  “After all the blood and money and sacrifice, we're bragging that Iran is coming to the table.”
• Will Saletan [09:33]:
  “Do you get the feeling that maybe all this talk about begging is just more bullshit?”

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:00 – Will Saletan opens with Trump’s new Iran deal announcement
• 01:47 – Comparing Trump’s deal to Obama’s JCPOA
• 02:55 – Hegseth invokes “wall” versus “path” to a bomb
• 03:27 – Saletan mocks the emptiness of the new promises
• 04:20 – Waltz claims deal is “pay for performance”; fact-checked
• 05:05 – Claims about Strait of Hormuz and oil flows
• 06:23 – Crunching oil export numbers vs. administration spin
• 07:38 – Bragging about Iran “coming to the table”
• 08:41 – White House: “They begged us” for a deal
• 09:29 – Waltz explains long negotiations due to tough Iranian diplomats
• 09:33 – Saletan underscores the real reason for the deal: need for an exit

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Tone and Style

Saletan’s tone is acerbic, critical, and laced with sarcasm, staying true to the Bulwark’s biting style. The episode shifts rapidly through clips and analysis, prioritizing clear-eyed skepticism and lampooning political spin.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Show

This episode is a fast-paced, cut-to-the-bone critique of the Trump administration’s “new” Iran deal, exposing its similarities with Obama’s much-maligned agreement and lambasting the war-driven costs that delivered little substantive change. If you want a concise, pointed breakdown of the political rhetoric versus reality, Saletan delivers in spades.

Transcript

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[Will Saletan]

hey, it's Will Salatan from the Bulwark. So have you heard the great news? Donald Trump announced that Iran has surrendered. He said they're going to sign a deal to give us everything we wanted. That's what he said, right? And this morning, several officials from the administration went on TV to brag about this so called new deal. So I'm going to take you through some of the interviews and show you that it's all a bunch of bs. So let's start with Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense. He was on Face the Nation and he was bragging about the terms of this deal. Watch what happens partway through when Margaret Brennan reminds him that the jcpoa, which was the Obama Iran deal, said the same thing.

[Pete Hegseth / Mike Waltz (quoted speakers)]

The document says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Won't seek one, won't buy one, won't have one. JCPOA said that there'll be negotiations to make that final.

[Will Saletan]

Oh, so wait, so this big win that Trump and Hegseth promised that Iran was going to sign a document, a document promising not to get a nuclear weapon? We already had that in the Obama deal. Huh. And what was that at the end where Hegseth said there'll be negotiations to make it final? You mean this, this document that we're signing? It isn't even the deal. It's just a deal to make another deal. So wait a minute. We went to war and we spent all that money and we got American service members killed and we're all paying way more for gas just to get a promise A promise from Iran to make another promise. How lame is that? Oh, but Hegseth says, no, no, no. This deal is solid. This deal, he says, is a wall.

[Pete Hegseth / Mike Waltz (quoted speakers)]

JCPOA was a path to a bomb. What this deal will be will be a wall to a bomb.

[Will Saletan]

Oh, it's a wall. So, okay, so how exactly is this wall gonna work? Let's hear from Mike Waltz, who is Trump's ambassador to the UN on abc.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

This is a strong deal, but the most important piece going forward. Remember, Martha, this is a memorandum of understanding. A lot of these details are going to be worked out as we go forward into the next round of negotiation.

[Will Saletan]

Huh? So. So there it is again. The details. The details he says, are going to get worked out in the next round of negotiation. So. So this isn't a wall. This is a promise from Trump and his flunkies that somewhere down the road, Iran is going to let us build. We're going to build a wall. It's like, do you remember when Trump said Mexico was going to pay for the wall on our southern border? I mean, this is just like that. It's just an empty promise. Except this time there isn't even going to be a wall. There's just a wall of bullshit. Oh, but Walt says this deal is much better than the deal that Obama got. Because. Because this time, Iran won't get any sanctions relief till they make good on their promises.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

This is going to be, in terms of any unfrozen assets or sanctions relief. What's called pay for performance.

[Will Saletan]

Pay for performance sounds great. But then the ABC interviewer Martha Raddatz points out one little thing.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

Let me just say, with the jcpoa,

[Will Saletan]

they lifted sanctions only after there were

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

verifiable steps toward implementing.

[Will Saletan]

Oh, well, how about that? We already had a pay for performance deal before Trump scrapped that deal and went to war to get us another pay for performance deal. Okay, so do we get anything else in this deal? Let's hear from Walt on Fox News.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

He's been very clear on this for many decades. Iran cannot and will not have a nuclear weapon, and they cannot and will not hold the world's economies hostage with sea mines attacking shipping and trying to charge tolls.

[Will Saletan]

Oh, so. So there won't be any Iranian mines or tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. That's. That sounds great. Except remind me, did Iran have mines and tolls in the Strait of Hormuz before we went to war and spent all these billions of dollars and drove up your gas prices? No. In fact, there were no mines or tolls. So we did all of that. We wasted all of that. We charged you all of that to get right back to where we were with no mines or tolls. Oh. But Hegseth assures us that we already have control of the Strait of Hormuz. He says we've been sneaking oil out of the Straight and Iran can't do anything about it.

[Pete Hegseth / Mike Waltz (quoted speakers)]

Project Freedom never stopped, and we've run 125 million barrels of oil through the straits, and Iran couldn't do anything about it. How many ships from Iran have transit our blockade? 0. 0. We have controlled the straits this entire time.

[Will Saletan]

Oh, so we have total control of the strait. In fact, he says we've gotten 125 million barrels out. But do you know how many barrels usually come out of the strait on a normal day? About 20 million. And we went to war more than 100 days ago. So. So that is 2 billion barrels of oil that would have come out of the strait normally. So. So Hegseth is bragging that we're getting one eighth as much oil out of the strait as we would normally get. And then he tells you hilariously that that means we have total control and Iran can't do anything. So apparently Iran can't do anything except. Except block 7. Eight of the oil that would normally come out of the street. But the big win, according to Hegseth, is the one that we already got for sure, which is that Iran came to the table. Now, Pete Hegseth is not the smartest guy in the world, so please bear with him as he tries to get this sentence out of his mouth.

[Pete Hegseth / Mike Waltz (quoted speakers)]

Their regime is more devastated, more devastating. Excuse me, more devastated than it's ever been in its 47 years. And that's why they're at the table. Don't discount how important it was that we were willing to show. We will restart this and. And we will set you back even further. And that was part of the reason why Iran came to the table.

[Will Saletan]

Okay, so. So Iran came to the table, and that's a victory. Look, the Iranians were at the table throughout the talks on the Obama deal, and they were at the table with the Trump people before. Before we launched this war. Right? And Trump and Hexith and those guys said that wasn't enough. So we started this war. And then after all the blood and money and sacrifice, we're bragging that Iran is coming to the table. Oh, but the Trump guys say this time it's different, because this time the Iranians begged us. They begged us to come to the table.

[Pete Hegseth / Mike Waltz (quoted speakers)]

That's the big difference between this and jcpoa and the way Obama did it. Obama, they begged Iran for a deal and we bombed Iran.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

This is why you see them coming to the table practically begging for cash. The blockade, this is a huge difference from the past. President Trump's blockade has been enormously effective. This is why you see the regime practically begging for access to any type of economic lifeline.

[Will Saletan]

Okay, so, so this time we have all the. We have all the cards. We didn't beg them. They begged us. All right, so if that's true, then why is it taking this long? So here's what Waltz said when Martha Raddatz asked him why the deal wasn't done.

[SpinQuest Legal Disclaimer / McDonald's Ad Voice]

The Iranians are incredibly difficult negotiators.

[Will Saletan]

Gee, that's odd. They're begging us, right? They've been begging us, but the talks are taking a long time because these beggars are just very tough negotiators. Do you get the feeling that maybe all this talk about begging is just more bullshit? Look, it's pretty clear what's going on here. Trump went into this war without a plan for how to get out of it. So he needs to cut a deal. And it's not going to be any better than the deal we had before. But Trump can't admit it. So he and Pete Hegseth and Mike Waltz and this whole administration full of blowhards are going to feed you a bunch of bull about how big and strong this new deal is while they slowly back away. See you next time.

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