Bulwark Takes Episode Summary: "Trump’s New Poll Numbers are AWFUL"
Introduction
In the June 12, 2025 episode of Bulwark Takes, hosts Sam Stein and Sarah Longwell delve into the latest polling data surrounding former President Donald Trump's approval ratings. The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of recent polls, explores the factors contributing to Trump's fluctuating approval, and discusses the broader implications for the Republican Party and the current political landscape.
Latest Poll Findings
The conversation begins with Sam Stein addressing the surprising drop in Trump's approval ratings as indicated by recent polls.
- Sam Stein [03:05]: "Trump’s approval rating was at 3,854 approved disapprove... But then today we have this AP N O NORC poll that has him at 39 approved."
Sarah confirms these findings, highlighting the steep decline.
- Sarah Longwell [03:53]: "They've got him at disapproved 60% and approved 39."
Analyzing Trump's Declining Approval
Sarah Longwell provides an in-depth analysis of the factors contributing to the decline in Trump's approval ratings.
- Sarah Longwell [04:02]: "When Trump does a thing, when he puts it... everybody goes, wait, I'm sorry, what?"
She draws parallels between Trump's handling of tariffs and current events, emphasizing the pattern of initial disorganization followed by attempts to walk back policies, which often leads to increased disapproval.
- Sarah Longwell [05:25]: "Trump's numbers start to drift back up when he's not the focus, but now, with protests and the parade, he's back at the center, and his disapproval is rising again."
Economic Policies and Public Perception
The discussion shifts to the economic policies implemented during Trump's tenure, particularly tariffs, and their impact on his approval ratings despite some macroeconomic indicators showing improvement.
- Sam Stein [06:39]: "He knows that if he's in the news, it's not good for him... yet here he is."
Sarah elaborates on the disconnect between macroeconomic improvements and the public's lived experiences, citing focus group insights.
- Sarah Longwell [07:31]: "Prices are still very high. Trump's promise to lower prices immediately isn't being met, leading to voter dissatisfaction."
She underscores that while macroeconomic metrics may show a stable or improving economy, the tangible effects on everyday life—like high prices—negate the perceived benefits, causing disillusionment among voters.
Impact of Immigration Policies
Immigration remains a pivotal issue affecting Trump's approval ratings. The hosts examine various polls that reflect public sentiment on Trump's immigration policies.
- Sam Stein [10:07]: "The AP poll on immigration shows Trump at 46% approved, 53% disapproved."
Sarah critiques the oversimplification of immigration issues within the MAGA coalition, highlighting the nuanced views of voters who support strict immigration control but oppose harsh deportations.
- Sarah Longwell [11:19]: "There are many in the MAGA coalition who don't want cruel and unusual deportations, especially for those who have been in the country for years without committing crimes."
She explains that the Republican base now includes more low-income voters who rely on government programs, making aggressive immigration policies politically risky.
- Sarah Longwell [09:45]: "A woman on SNAP benefits expresses frustration with Trump's policies, showing the internal conflicts within the Republican base."
Elon Musk's Criticism and Its Fallout
The episode takes a turn as the discussion focuses on Elon Musk's public denunciation of Trump, which has had significant repercussions on Trump's standing, especially within his base.
- Sarah Longwell [15:14]: "Elon Musk called Donald Trump a pedophile who should be impeached, yet the reaction has been minimal and dismissive."
Sam compares this scenario to hypothetical situations involving other prominent figures, emphasizing the unique challenges Trump presents to the media and political discourse.
- Sam Stein [16:53]: "In any other reality, such claims would lead to a major political earthquake, but with Trump, it's treated as just another back-and-forth insult."
Sarah expresses frustration over the lack of substantial media coverage and public accountability regarding such serious allegations.
- Sarah Longwell [15:45]: "In a real political culture, these accusations would prompt thorough investigation and public outrage, but instead, it's downplayed."
Challenges for Journalism and Political Discourse
The hosts reflect on the difficulties journalists face in covering Trump's unpredictable and often sensational actions, which complicate accurate reporting and public understanding.
- Sam Stein [17:21]: "Every day brings a new serious controversy, making journalism incredibly difficult under Trump."
Sarah agrees, noting Trump's tendency to divert attention through crises, thereby making it challenging to maintain focus on critical issues.
- Sarah Longwell [17:45]: "Trump's pattern of lurching from crisis to crisis disrupts the ability to thoroughly investigate and report on important stories."
Conclusion
The episode wraps up with Sam and Sarah summarizing the precarious position of Donald Trump in the current political climate. Despite occasional polls suggesting moderate support, the overarching trend indicates declining approval driven by unmet promises, controversial policies, and internal conflicts within his support base. The discussion underscores the complex dynamics within the Republican Party and the broader implications for upcoming elections and policy directions.
- Sam Stein [18:35]: "It's nutty that despite serious controversies, the public discourse remains superficial."
Sarah highlights the critical need for journalists to persist in uncovering and reporting substantive issues amidst the chaotic and shifting political landscape.
- Sarah Longwell [18:35]: "We need to continue exploring these stories deeply, even when Trump attempts to divert attention."
Key Takeaways
- Recent polls indicate a significant decline in Donald Trump's approval ratings, with disapproval surpassing approval in multiple surveys.
- Trump's handling of economic policies, particularly tariffs, has led to voter disillusionment despite some positive macroeconomic indicators.
- Immigration remains a contentious issue, with a divided Republican base struggling to balance strict policies with the needs of low-income voters relying on government programs.
- Elon Musk's public criticism of Trump has failed to elicit a substantial response from the media or the public, highlighting challenges in accountability and discourse.
- Journalists face increasing difficulties in covering Trump's unpredictable actions, necessitating persistent and in-depth investigative efforts.
This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a thorough examination of the factors influencing Trump's declining approval and provides insights into the evolving dynamics of American politics.