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A
Hello everyone. This is JVL here with my bulwark colleague, Andrew Egger. Andrew, it's tariff palooza. All the tariffs are happening. Donald Trump is out there with two thumbs setting new trade policy as we speak. We're going to get 100% tariff on movies. Interesting. Very curious to hear how that works. We're getting furniture tariffs. We have Scott Besant very upset that after we bailed out Argentina, the little, little disheveled hair maga down there went and turned around and sold soybeans to the Chinese. Everything is kind of topsy turvy and I'm here for it because this is some exquisite stove touching and as you know, I like nothing more than watching people touch the hot stove. Before we get started though, if you would like to follow bad things happening to the worst people, you should subscribe to this channel. Hit, like hit. Subscribe. Follow more feedback. Andrew, which is your favorite tariff of the new tariff regime? Which is maybe kind of happening or not?
B
I love that you have already baked me in like, like, like that. I'm bought in on the, on the presupposition that all this stuff is good. As before, I've even opened my mouth, which I don't agree with at all. I'm very unhappy with all of this.
A
What is good, what is bad? Andrew, we're, we're beyond such words.
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean like, maybe, maybe in a universe where like you actually could just sort of like silo off all of this pain to only people who had pulled a lever for Donald Trump last year in the election. I still wouldn't agree with you actually, but it'd be easier to agree with you. Okay then in the current case, which is just that we are going from sort of tariff disaster to tariff disaster. Donald Trump has rewired all global trade, you know, to fit his, his own sort of very dearly held protectionist model for how the US Is going to enter into its next golden age. And not only that, not only are we, you know, still finally starting to see the actual shocks hit from, from what we have now sort of settled into as the new synthesis from the old way and the, the liberation day tariffs from back in April that, that all finally clunked into place over the summer, not only do we have that to deal with, but, but Donald Trump still just loves tariffs. It's his favorite thing to reach for. Anytime he has any kind of economic like problem that's presented to him, he's like, we'll just slap a tariff on that. And so it like it compounds, right? And it compounds for the dumbest stuff for the silliest reasons. I mean, like you go, I genuinely don't know which of those two that you mentioned from the two, the two tweets that just, just went up on Truth Social this morning. These are like the two new policies. I guess we can talk about those. The one is, look, foreign jbl, foreign movie studios are eating our lunch. It's like taking candy from a baby that all these other countries are able to make these good movies. Now the South Koreans are making K pop movies. And it's, it's crazy. It's crazy out there. They're making lots of money in the.
A
US where are great American demon hunters? Shouldn't we also have boy band and girl band demon hunters that we animate right here in America?
B
Yeah, yeah. Come on, man. It's like they're eating our lunch. So that's, that's one of them and then the other one, which is like almost crazier, at least if you go by the wording of the tweet. And I don't know, none of us know whether he meant it this way or whether he was just being sloppy or what, but what he said was, look, North Carolina, their furniture industry has really been, you know, really hurt by a lot of imported furniture. So what we are going to do is we're going to place a tariff on all countries that don't agree to buy all their furniture from the United States. Not. What do you. Again, what he said was not just we are going to place a tariff on imports of foreign furniture. It was if, if, if you, any country out there do not consent to start buying your furniture immediately from our great North Carolina furniture manufacturers, we are going to put a retaliatory tariff on you for that. That was the plain text of the tweet. It's, it's crazy. It's crazy out there. It's like. And again, this is on all of every, every single new tariff. Thing you always have to keep in mind is on top of these incredibly sort of strangulatory and bad and, and distortionary tariffs that are economy wide now on basically every country out there. Some more than others. But it's, I mean, it's just, this is where we are.
A
We have separate tariffs for upholstered furniture and then a different set of tariffs for vanities and cabinets. I guess that makes sense for reasons Wayfair hardest hit, I would imagine. What is Wayfair gonna do? I am so. I am a little more struck by the movie Tariffs? Because that seems even more nonsensical to me. Like, movies are not a good. Movies are a service. Right? And he says he's going to put 100% tariffs on movies. What does that mean? Does, does that mean that, so Disney finances a movie, then Trump says that your local AMC has to charge double for, like, who, who pays the tariff for this? Is it only for movies that are exhibited theatrically in a theater? Or does streaming content count as well? If you are Netflix, a global company, and you, you are making content in Moldovia or whatever, can you do your things get tariffed because they're only stream. And the answer, of course, is that none of this makes sense, right?
B
But there is a, you're just, you're getting bogged down in the details. These are all questions, policy questions to be sorted out later by US Trade Representative Jameson Greer. You know, he's a big picture guy, you know, 100% tariff on movies, man. Just figure it out. That's a, that's figure it out.
A
And looming over all this, of course, is the Supreme Court, which may decide to save Trump from himself, as opposed, which is just as a brief aside, that's kind of what I think they're going to do. I think the Supreme Court, this Supreme Court majority is happy to subsume principles in ways that help Trump, but is willing to stand up for principles if they think they're saving Trump from himself. So I think they're going to invalidate the tariffs. Where are you, if you had to put it, if you had to put five bucks on this.
B
I might go the opposite way of you just to have a conversation about it, right? Because I can totally see that argument. I can also see the argument that, like, if you take the, if you take the politics, this is like the basic, like, analytical question about the Supreme Court this term, right? Is it like, are they actually just doing politics? Are they actually like sort of like triangulating for, for the, for Trump or, or which would also be bad? Are they so sort of like outside of the politics of some of this stuff that they are just sort of like out there in this la la land world where they're like, isn't it fun that we get to get to investigate these interesting, not previously tested issues about executive power and, and who wields, who wields it in the, in the independent agencies and stuff? And boy, isn't it fun that like, you know, finally we're getting some good, some good cases that test some of these things. And let's, let's really dig down on the case law and like, and you know, you an argument that would, would go the opposite way where, because they have, because they are so bought in on this sort of principle of, of, of, you know, the unitary executive and the power of the executive branch rests in the executive that, that maybe they will, they will take the expansive view of these trade powers like they have taken the expansive view of so many other executive powers during this term. But if, if they don't do that, I think you have obviously hit on the most likely reason why.
A
Let me tell you a little secret, Andrew, about not just this Supreme Court, but all Supreme Courts. It's always just politics. That's, that's what it is. The Supreme Court is always just politics. Not, not just this Supreme Court, but every Supreme Court. Because that's the end of the system. The system.
B
And you say it's always just politics. It only takes one counterexample to, to.
A
Disprove that, that unmeaningful unmeaningful decisions. Right. They will rule on procedure stuff here.
B
And there, but whenever they are given gorsuch in that, in that sort of trans discrimination workplace case a couple of years ago, like, I don't know, there are, there are moments where these guys, I mean they, they take themselves seriously as thinkers and obviously they're, they're political beings too. We're getting kind of far afield from.
A
Yeah, we should get back to, we should get back to terrorists. Soybeans, Soybean tariffs still happening. Is, is he gonna bail out our great patriotic soybean farmers?
B
We honestly should have done a video just on this because this is so crazy. Like I've written about this a couple times in, in morning shots the last couple of days. You will remember we did this all before, right? I mean I covered it for the, for the Weekly Standard, you know, back in 2017, 2018, like the early ramp up of the trade war with China where you know, Donald Trump was, was sort of, you know, paying pennies to the dollar compared to the dollars he's paying now for these, these trade wars. But, but it was very clear even then that one of the most hurt groups from these, these tit for tat trade wars with China in particular, was going to be American farmers because American soybean farmers in particular sell a, or used to sell an enormous number of soybeans to China to feed their sort of domestic hog production over there. That's kind of how, that's what, that's what soybeans are for, you know, is like is like animal feed. And much of it was going to China at that time. China realized that because of that, they were totally overexposed to, like, political retaliation. Right? So here you have all these farmers. They're in the American heartland. They are Trump voting constituencies. And China's like, great, well, let's hit them. We buy a lot of stuff from them. We could easily stop doing that. We could buy from South America instead. Brazil and Argentina's sort of burgeoning agricultural industry down there. And that's what they did. And it really hurt farmers here. And, and as a result of that, Donald Trump, you know, reached down into his bag of goodies and was like, you know, our great patriotic American farmers have really been bearing the brunt of this. So we're going to bail them out to the tune of tens of billions of dollars a year for the rest of, for the rest of my term. Or as he would put it, you know, until the, until we win the trade war was, was kind of his, you know, on the far side of it, our farmers are going to be doing awesome. They're going to be able to sell everywhere. It's going to be this new golden age. But until then, until then, we will, we will just make you whole with these. Is that welfare payments?
A
Is that welfare or is it only welfare when it goes to black and brown people? It's so hard.
B
You get to the end of the first Trump term, and there's a lot of coverage of this, of like, okay, this has basically created a new kind of economic dependency where there are these, these payouts, you know, hand over fist with very little oversight going out of the Department of Agriculture, out of the federal government, you know, to just farmers. And it's kind of just, it's. It's a cash bonanza out there. And they were hurting. I mean, it's like there are questions about whether it made them whole at all. You know, it's not like they probably, all things being. Being equal, they probably would have rather sold their stuff to China and just gone on doing it. But, like, that was the problem that, that, that was the first term. And now you get to.
A
Now, is that why all those farmers. Is that why all those farmers went and voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, because they believed in the dignity of their work? Is that, Is that why. Because Iowa went for Harris last time around? Right. It was like a tremendous swing. Or am I missing that?
B
Well, there was this1poll. JBL.
A
Boy, it's so, it's so weird.
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, you're correct. You get to. Today, Trump's talking about the same stuff again. He's in the Oval Office the other day. He's like, well, you know, I think we're gonna start making some payouts out of our, out of our tariff revenues is how it framed it. You know, again, to start protecting these, these, these farmers from this short term pain. Meanwhile, the pain is humongous. China has, has, I don't know if you've seen these, these, these stats. China has not bought US Soybeans in any quantities since May. Like, it's just completely gone. And a big part of the reason why it's completely gone is because China has been able to just go back to those markets that profited so much from the, from the first term trade war. Like, like that, that, like Argentina and these countries have, have been kind of scaling up These, this we just. Industrial agriculture for.
A
Bailed out Argentina. Right?
B
Yeah.
A
In the last few days because America first requires bailing out Argentina because they have a Junior Maga. And then he went and turned around and sold some more soybeans and Scott Besant is very upset about. Anyway, we'll get to that.
B
Well, and that's just the free market, right? I mean, down there it's like, wow, we have China. But honestly, like, China, China's coming and calling. If you're an Argentinian farmer, it's just like, great, right? They're like, okay, well, they'll pay a bunch more money for my soybeans than they were going to. Otherwise I'm going to invest in more and more, you know, production and scale to be able to meet that demand. Five years ago, during the first trade war, I was already doing that. I already was scaling up because it was suddenly so much more lucrative. And that has now gotten me in a position where I can, I can pants the American farmer that much worse this time. I mean, it's, it's crazy. And yet we're running the same playbook again. There's, there's no end in sight. I mean, like, and when, when Trump talks about, you know, what he's going to do for American farmers, it is just, it's so clear just from listening to him talk that, that he thinks that like, he's going to blow this gigantic hole in, like, what US Industrial agriculture looks like in the country now and he's going to make it up by getting these concessions on the margins. Like he's going to knock down Canada's, you know, embargo on US Dairy and he's going to knock down Japan's, you know, refusal to accept US rice. I mean, it's, it's crazy. It betrays a complete, complete, like just failure to grapple with like any of the actual economic realities on the ground. I mean like, I guess that's sort of like a dog bites man story at this point. Is Donald Trump like just, just existing in this, in this economic funhouse mirror land when it comes to these trade policies. But it is actively now already having enormous economic damage and we're just talking about agriculture, but it's happening everywhere.
A
Yeah, this is, again, this goes to my thesis that the kitchen table issues thing was always just cover. It isn't actually about kitchen tables issues. It's like Trump is going to be mean to the people you hate. And if your business has to suffer for it or your farm has to get blowed up from it, so what? It's a small price to pay for self esteem, Michael. And so I, but I do, I want to hit on something that is actually really sinister in all of this. And I forget who, who made this point. I think it was Heather Cox Richardson, which is that one of the things the tariffs do is they provide Trump a workaround from the Constitution requiring all funds to be congressionally mandated and approved because the tariff money goes straight to the US treasury and is, is the purview of the executive branch. So that becomes in a sense essentially Trump's private financing for whatever he wants. Do we think that he was smart enough to think that's what he was doing? That in addition to like trying to turn ICE into like a private police force and trying to turn the military into his private military force? The tariffs part of it was, yeah, and I'm going to get my own national bank that I can use to do whatever I want with the money.
B
What is so strange about all of this is, is the degree to which all of that was anticipateable, you know, before the election. Right. Again, we were like writing about this at the time, that this was a, that this was a new found power and a newfound lever of control that Donald Trump was proposing, preparing to give himself. I, when I think back to the election, it, it remains sort of strange to me that there was so little talk of tariffs in general. You know, Kamala Harris had one line that she would routinely roll out in her speeches, talking about, you know, the Trump national sales tax, which like, was plainly like her way of trying to cut through the fact this is sort of like a wonky issue to make it more real for people, but like he was always planning to reorganize the entire economy in this way and like people didn't really notice, you know, like, like searches for like what tariffs were spiked like crazy in the weeks after the election, you know, way higher than ever before. Let me read you one line from this New York. There's this New York Times piece up just this morning. Small businesses wither under Trump's tariffs is the headline. It's hard to breathe. I don't know whether this woman's a Trump voter. Jbl, so try to, try to hold back here but, but just listen to this quote. I mean, Kimberly Hyde, the owner of Beet and Yarrow, a flower shop in Denver, so that doesn't really code maga, does it? Said she was caught off guard by how much the trade policy would drain her business. Quote. I don't know why it didn't occur to me that flowers would also be tariff, said Ms. Hyde, who sells flowers from countries including Colombia and Ecuador and ceramic and metal bases from China and India. So like, this is a woman whose entire business is extremely exposed to tariffs. Right. She imports everything she sells and yet I don't think it's at all unreasonable and I don't think it's all that rare that like a million people have like saw tariffs before the election as this sort of like wonky out there abstract thing that was like going to happen someplace else and did not actually think about like I buy things from overseas to run my business and I'm going to have to start paying like 40% more on all those imports if this, if this guy gets through and does what he said he's going to do. And that's the weird disconnect that I still have not gotten my head around how exactly it all went down that way.
A
All right, well you, you are not sure if the lady from that piece is a Trump voter. I have one who I'm sure is a Trump voter. This is from Hannah Knowles. Is the reporter. Can't tell it's on like Microsoft News, so I can't tell you what the actual home publication is on it. Jesse Meadows told her mother in law not to panic when business slowed at the family flower shop last year. They just needed to hold on a little longer until Donald Trump got back in office. She's still waiting for the turnaround. The phone that used to ring all day during Trump's first term sits mostly quiet. Customers are still reluctant to spend on extra like flowers. In her corner of small town Georgia, a box of faux berries from China recently arrived at the shop with a note explaining that they cost 17% more because of Trump's tariffs. Fruit's getting outrageous now, Meadows, 36, lamented to a customer one recent afternoon, explaining the rising price of the gift basket the woman orders every year for a friend's birthday. Ben goes on to list the other things she was expecting. She was expecting energy costs to be cut in half immediately, bring prices down, draining the swamp, free IVF and ending the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. And she's been disappointed by all this. I mean, I guess this is. I'm roping you into a long running conversation that Sarah and I have, which is, are people stupid or are they not stupid? And they know what they want to know because it's one of those two, right? And obviously 330 million people in the country, the answer is both. There's some people are just dumb, dumb as a bag of rocks, who really did think, well, I thought we were gonna get free IVF everywhere, but the median American. Is the median American that dumb? Or do they just know what they wanna know? Do you see what I'm getting at, Andrew?
B
Yeah, of course. I think there's a lot of knowing what you wanna know going on everywhere all the time. Right? And like, you can go back to, again, this has been the hallmark of the tariff stuff all throughout this, this second Trump term term as well, where it's not just sort of like the, the, you know, the flower shop owners and the small business mom and pop shop people just trying to get by, who have been kind of gobsmacked by the effects of this. But if you will recall, we had a giant stock market panic right after Liberation Day, where all of the, where the entire financial industry and, you know, all of the traders, all the smartest guys in the room whose job it is to see around corners and all this stuff looked at one another and we're like, oh, he was serious about all that stuff, like, what's going on? And then when he kind of pulled out of the deepest part of that dive, they were all kind of like, oh, thank goodness that's over. And they all went back to normal. And we're now in yet another period of sort of like bizarre. Like all of these, these, you know, red lights are flashing on the control panel and yet everybody's just kind of going about their business as though it's going to be fine. Again, like at, not just at the, at, at the level of, you know, you own a flower shop, but at the level of you trade Stocks for a living on the New York Stock Exchange. You know what I mean? So it's like the amount, there's a certain amount of willful blindness that affects, affects us all, I would say.
A
Not me, but speak for yourself.
B
Yeah, everyone but you.
A
I would say this. The long term version of the story will wind up being the most important version and it will be the one that nobody sees, the one that will be completely invisible, which is that it isn't just the imposition of tariffs, it's the mindless on again, off again nature of it. The total chaos that is then commingled with Trump's lingering popularity. I am sorry, but he's still somewhere between 40 and 40%. At 40 and 44% approval, which given the externalities around, like what is happening in the real world is astonishing. And what this says to the rest of the global order is that you can't make plans around the United States. The United States is still very large and has a lot of money. And so you have to be prepared to be able to take advantage of that when you can. When there's an opportunity to make a buck by dealing with the United States, you should probably take it. But in terms of like ordering your long term interests, you can't do that with any confidence. Right? You can't go like, hey, let's encourage our companies to go make $100 million investments in physical plants in the United States. Are you kidding? Are you high? And this, you know, mixed with the health care stuff, mixed with the pharmaceutical tariffs which are coming online, mixed with the slashing in NIH and research funding and the pushing out of foreign students to universities, which is like, like long been one of America's big strategic advantages, means that the rest of the world is going to move on because they have to. And they can't just say, oh, well, it's just Trump, you know, it's just this one weird guy. The truth is the American people know better. They're chomping at the bet. They have buyer's remorse. Anybody who's rational looks at America. And I, I come back to this all the time. I forget who it was. I think it was like the, the Minister of Defense from Poland or something who said something to the equivalent of, we cannot make long term defense plans based around the whims of 40,000 people in Wisconsin every four years. And that's right for NATO. And it's also going to be right about the global economic order. This is what you all voted for. Enjoy it. Andrew, thanks for sitting with me. Buddy. It was great. Stove touching. And I can tell you enjoyed it, even if you. Even if you're determined to pretend that you didn't.
B
I like talking about it.
A
Guys. Hit. Like, hit. Subscribe. Follow the channel. We'll be back with more soon.
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Episode: Trump’s New Tariffs Make Life WAY More Expensive
Date: September 30, 2025
Hosts: JVL (Jonathan V. Last) and Andrew Egger
In this brisk, biting conversation, JVL and Andrew Egger analyze the chaos and far-reaching consequences of Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs. They unpack both the slapdash policymaking and the deeper implications for American consumers, small businesses, farmers, and the global economic order. The hosts also critique the political and psychological underpinnings enabling the policy—and forecast the lasting damage beyond mere “kitchen table issues.”
“I like nothing more than watching people touch the hot stove.” — JVL [00:38]
“Movies are not a good. Movies are a service.” — JVL [04:31] “100% tariff on movies, man. Just figure it out.” — Andrew [05:55]
“If you, any country out there, do not consent to start buying your furniture immediately from our great North Carolina furniture manufacturers, we are going to put a retaliatory tariff on you for that.” — Andrew [03:30]
“Let me tell you a little secret, Andrew... The Supreme Court is always just politics.” — JVL [07:54] “It only takes one counterexample to disprove that.” — Andrew [08:13]
Trump’s trade wars have harmed American farmers—especially soybean producers—by inviting devastating Chinese retaliation.
Bailouts have made entire sectors dependent on federal handouts.
“China’s coming and calling. If you’re an Argentinian farmer, it’s just like, great, right?... I can pants the American farmer that much worse this time.” — Andrew [12:54]
JVL calls out the hypocrisy and racial coding in how these bailouts are characterized:
“Is that welfare, or is it only welfare when it goes to black and brown people?” — JVL [10:43]
“The tariff money goes straight to the US treasury and is the purview of the executive branch. So that becomes, in a sense, essentially Trump’s private financing for whatever he wants.” — JVL [15:16]
The hosts probe whether Americans are simply uninformed (“dumb as a bag of rocks”) or willfully blind about tariff consequences.
Andrew and JVL reference both everyday small business owners and supposedly savvy Wall Street traders who were caught off guard by the real-world impact, despite ample warning.
“The median American. Is the median American that dumb? Or do they just know what they wanna know?” — JVL [19:31]
Example: Flower shop owners seeing drastic input cost increases, but failing to anticipate the direct effect of tariffs.
“Kimberly Hyde...said she was caught off guard by how much the trade policy would drain her business. ‘I don't know why it didn't occur to me that flowers would also be tariffed.’” — Andrew quoting NYT [17:23]
“We cannot make long term defense plans based around the whims of 40,000 people in Wisconsin every four years. That's right for NATO. And it's also going to be right about the global economic order.” — JVL [22:30]
“Tariff palooza. All the tariffs are happening. … This is some exquisite stove touching.”
— JVL [00:06]
“Donald Trump has rewired all global trade, you know, to fit his own sort of very dearly held protectionist model.”
— Andrew [01:47]
“If your business has to suffer for it or your farm has to get blowed up from it, so what? It's a small price to pay for self esteem, Michael.”
— JVL [14:34]
“There are questions about whether it made them whole at all... they probably would have rather sold their stuff to China and just gone on doing it.”
— Andrew [10:59]
“There's a certain amount of willful blindness that affects us all, I would say.”
— Andrew [21:04]
“The United States is still very large and has a lot of money... But in terms of ordering your long-term interests, you can't do that with any confidence.”
— JVL [21:34]
The conversation is fast, sharply irreverent, and laced with gallows humor. JVL leans into snark (“stove touching”) while Andrew provides policy depth, together highlighting not just the economic chaos, but the broader political, constitutional, and cultural dysfunction fueling the tariff crisis.
This summary captures the depth, spirit, and critical details of a dense, timely episode—serving as both a recap and a primer for those seeking to understand the wider implications of Trump’s latest trade moves.