Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes — Trump’s New Voters Are Already Bailing

Host: Tim Miller (The Bulwark)
Date: January 22, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller unpacks a new New York Times/Siena poll showing a sharp reversal for Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition. Miller breaks down demographic data, explores why key groups have abandoned Trump so quickly, and highlights what this means for the political future. He also provides insights into the emotional motivations of both Trump’s supporters and opponents, drawing on polling cross-tabs and analysis from Nate Cohn.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Premise: Trump’s 2024 Coalition Is Unraveling

• The poll reveals that the surprising new voter groups Trump attracted in 2024—especially young voters and Black and Hispanic men—are now deserting him in large numbers just a year into his second term.
• This indicates that fears of a permanent, multiracial MAGA realignment may have been premature.

“Basically, what I would call the headline of this poll is the second Trump coalition has unraveled. Trump's approval rating is at 40% disapproved, 57%.”
— Tim Miller [03:56]

2. Demographic Shifts: Back to the 2020 Baseline

• The major demographic swings of 2024 have “snapped back.” Trump’s approval among various groups closely resembles his pre-2020 numbers.
  • Highest approval: older, white voters
  • Collapsed approval: young voters (18-29), and non-white voters

“In today's poll, Trump's approval rating by demographic group looks almost exactly as it did in the run up to his defeat in 2020.”
— Tim Miller [03:44]

• Trump’s support among non-white voters:
  • 2020: about -35 net approval
  • 2024: improved to about -25
  • 2026: collapsed to almost -50

“Now in 2026, he's almost minus 50. So not only has he lost the support he gained, but even additional people have jumped off the train.”
— Tim Miller [06:08]

• Young voters have also left in dramatic numbers.

“Just total collapse among young voters 18 to 29 as well as non-white voters.”
— Tim Miller [06:25]

3. The (Non-)Realignment: Multiracial MAGA was Fleeting

• The data strongly suggests that talk of a lasting multiracial, working-class coalition for Trump was overhyped.
• "Flippers"—voters who supported Trump in 2024 but now disapprove—abandoned him as quickly as they arrived.

“That coalition lasted a year. And the people that had come on board...they were the last ones on the train and they're the first ones off.”
— Tim Miller [05:00]

4. The Issues Behind the Turn

• Trump’s approval is underwater on virtually every major issue:
  • Immigration: -17
  • Economy: -18
  • Foreign affairs: -19
  • Cost of living: -30
  • “Epstein files”: -44

“On question after question, voters gives him negative marks in the handling of that issue.”
— Tim Miller [08:19]

• Main reason for defection: The economy. 44% of erstwhile Trump voters (“flippers”) cite economic issues as their top concern.
• Some Hispanic voters: immigration policies as a driver.
• Some young voters: disappointment in Trump’s handling of Gaza, Middle East policy.

“Among the voters who flipped, 44% of them cite economic issues... I think the Hispanic community, immigration is coming up. I think Israel is something that was brought up.”
— Tim Miller [09:24]

5. The Emotional Landscape: How Do Voters Feel About Trump?

• Poll asked: “What emotion best describes how you feel about Donald Trump's presidency so far?”
• Only 9% of respondents say “enthusiasm or pride.”
• 19% say “satisfaction”—Miller notes satisfaction isn’t “excited,” more like barely content.
• On the negative side, 29% say “disgust or derision,” 20% cite “hostility, outrage.”
• 16% report “disappointment or sadness”—many could be the aforementioned flippers.

“Among Trump supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction. That’s not like enthusiasm... Satisfaction is... just okay.”
— Tim Miller [12:17]

“29% of people fucking hate this, are disgusted by it, are outraged by it... that shows that there’s more of us than there are of them when it comes to people that are highly motivated by what’s happening right now.”
— Tim Miller [15:06] / [15:17]

6. The Electoral Outlook

• Democrats now hold a +5 lead on the generic congressional ballot, mirroring 2020 conditions.
• The House looks favorable for Democrats; the Senate remains close.

“Things have snapped back to about where they were in 2020... so really Democrats are going to kind of push that number up this time if you want the goal of taking back the House and the Senate.”
— Tim Miller [07:26]

• Multiple polls (Emerson, NYT/Siena) show similar trends, providing confidence the numbers aren’t outliers.

“Emerson had a poll out, had Trump at 43% approved, 51% disapproved... Emerson directionally verifies that this is the ballpark of where the country is on Trump.”
— Tim Miller [10:19] / [10:31]

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the fleeting “coalition:”

  “They don't like the smell and they were the last ones on the train and they're the first ones off.”
  — Tim Miller [05:02]

• Miller’s emotional upshot:

  “There’s a tinge of disappointment in Maga world and there is a unified rage in never Trumper world.”
  — Tim Miller [15:27]

Notable Quotes and Timestamps

| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |---|---|---| | “The second Trump coalition has unraveled.” | Tim Miller | [03:56] | | “If anything, young and non white voters are even likelier to disapprove of Mr. Trump than they were back in 2020.” | Tim Miller (paraphrasing Nate Cohn) | [05:10] | | “Trump is really struggling with non white voters. Also with young voters.” | Tim Miller | [06:21]-[06:24] | | “Among the voters who flipped, 44% of them cite economic issues.” | Tim Miller | [09:24] | | “Among Trump supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction.” | Tim Miller | [12:17] | | “29% of people fucking hate this, are disgusted by it, are outraged by it.” | Tim Miller | [15:06] |

Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:37] — Start of substantive discussion
• [03:56] — Headline finding: coalition collapse
• [05:00]-[06:25] — Demographic breakdowns and Trump’s shrinking support base
• [07:11]-[10:14] — Polling cross-tabs, why voters are turning away, focus on economy
• [11:00]-[15:40] — Emotional breakdown of Trump’s support and opposition

Closing Thoughts

Miller’s analysis is direct and laced with dry humor, underlining that Trump’s expanded 2024 coalition of new, often younger and non-white voters—once feared to spell lasting change—has dissipated just as quickly as it formed. The primary driver seems to be economic dissatisfaction, with a strong negative emotional sentiment dominating the electorate. The Democratic outlook looks rosier, and Miller concludes on a rare optimistic note, suggesting anti-Trump energy is now better motivated and more unified than the pro-Trump bloc.

End of summary.