Trump’s New Voters Are Already Bailing

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes — Trump’s New Voters Are Already Bailing

Host: Tim Miller (The Bulwark)
Date: January 22, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Tim Miller unpacks a new New York Times/Siena poll showing a sharp reversal for Donald Trump’s 2024 coalition. Miller breaks down demographic data, explores why key groups have abandoned Trump so quickly, and highlights what this means for the political future. He also provides insights into the emotional motivations of both Trump’s supporters and opponents, drawing on polling cross-tabs and analysis from Nate Cohn.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Premise: Trump’s 2024 Coalition Is Unraveling

• The poll reveals that the surprising new voter groups Trump attracted in 2024—especially young voters and Black and Hispanic men—are now deserting him in large numbers just a year into his second term.
• This indicates that fears of a permanent, multiracial MAGA realignment may have been premature.

“Basically, what I would call the headline of this poll is the second Trump coalition has unraveled. Trump's approval rating is at 40% disapproved, 57%.”
— Tim Miller [03:56]

2. Demographic Shifts: Back to the 2020 Baseline

• The major demographic swings of 2024 have “snapped back.” Trump’s approval among various groups closely resembles his pre-2020 numbers.
  • Highest approval: older, white voters
  • Collapsed approval: young voters (18-29), and non-white voters

“In today's poll, Trump's approval rating by demographic group looks almost exactly as it did in the run up to his defeat in 2020.”
— Tim Miller [03:44]

• Trump’s support among non-white voters:
  • 2020: about -35 net approval
  • 2024: improved to about -25
  • 2026: collapsed to almost -50

“Now in 2026, he's almost minus 50. So not only has he lost the support he gained, but even additional people have jumped off the train.”
— Tim Miller [06:08]

• Young voters have also left in dramatic numbers.

“Just total collapse among young voters 18 to 29 as well as non-white voters.”
— Tim Miller [06:25]

3. The (Non-)Realignment: Multiracial MAGA was Fleeting

• The data strongly suggests that talk of a lasting multiracial, working-class coalition for Trump was overhyped.
• "Flippers"—voters who supported Trump in 2024 but now disapprove—abandoned him as quickly as they arrived.

“That coalition lasted a year. And the people that had come on board...they were the last ones on the train and they're the first ones off.”
— Tim Miller [05:00]

4. The Issues Behind the Turn

• Trump’s approval is underwater on virtually every major issue:
  • Immigration: -17
  • Economy: -18
  • Foreign affairs: -19
  • Cost of living: -30
  • “Epstein files”: -44

“On question after question, voters gives him negative marks in the handling of that issue.”
— Tim Miller [08:19]

• Main reason for defection: The economy. 44% of erstwhile Trump voters (“flippers”) cite economic issues as their top concern.
• Some Hispanic voters: immigration policies as a driver.
• Some young voters: disappointment in Trump’s handling of Gaza, Middle East policy.

“Among the voters who flipped, 44% of them cite economic issues... I think the Hispanic community, immigration is coming up. I think Israel is something that was brought up.”
— Tim Miller [09:24]

5. The Emotional Landscape: How Do Voters Feel About Trump?

• Poll asked: “What emotion best describes how you feel about Donald Trump's presidency so far?”
• Only 9% of respondents say “enthusiasm or pride.”
• 19% say “satisfaction”—Miller notes satisfaction isn’t “excited,” more like barely content.
• On the negative side, 29% say “disgust or derision,” 20% cite “hostility, outrage.”
• 16% report “disappointment or sadness”—many could be the aforementioned flippers.

“Among Trump supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction. That’s not like enthusiasm... Satisfaction is... just okay.”
— Tim Miller [12:17]

“29% of people fucking hate this, are disgusted by it, are outraged by it... that shows that there’s more of us than there are of them when it comes to people that are highly motivated by what’s happening right now.”
— Tim Miller [15:06] / [15:17]

6. The Electoral Outlook

• Democrats now hold a +5 lead on the generic congressional ballot, mirroring 2020 conditions.
• The House looks favorable for Democrats; the Senate remains close.

“Things have snapped back to about where they were in 2020... so really Democrats are going to kind of push that number up this time if you want the goal of taking back the House and the Senate.”
— Tim Miller [07:26]

• Multiple polls (Emerson, NYT/Siena) show similar trends, providing confidence the numbers aren’t outliers.

“Emerson had a poll out, had Trump at 43% approved, 51% disapproved... Emerson directionally verifies that this is the ballpark of where the country is on Trump.”
— Tim Miller [10:19] / [10:31]

7. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the fleeting “coalition:”

  “They don't like the smell and they were the last ones on the train and they're the first ones off.”
  — Tim Miller [05:02]

• Miller’s emotional upshot:

  “There’s a tinge of disappointment in Maga world and there is a unified rage in never Trumper world.”
  — Tim Miller [15:27]

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Notable Quotes and Timestamps

| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |---|---|---| | “The second Trump coalition has unraveled.” | Tim Miller | [03:56] | | “If anything, young and non white voters are even likelier to disapprove of Mr. Trump than they were back in 2020.” | Tim Miller (paraphrasing Nate Cohn) | [05:10] | | “Trump is really struggling with non white voters. Also with young voters.” | Tim Miller | [06:21]-[06:24] | | “Among the voters who flipped, 44% of them cite economic issues.” | Tim Miller | [09:24] | | “Among Trump supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction.” | Tim Miller | [12:17] | | “29% of people fucking hate this, are disgusted by it, are outraged by it.” | Tim Miller | [15:06] |

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [01:37] — Start of substantive discussion
• [03:56] — Headline finding: coalition collapse
• [05:00]-[06:25] — Demographic breakdowns and Trump’s shrinking support base
• [07:11]-[10:14] — Polling cross-tabs, why voters are turning away, focus on economy
• [11:00]-[15:40] — Emotional breakdown of Trump’s support and opposition

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Closing Thoughts

Miller’s analysis is direct and laced with dry humor, underlining that Trump’s expanded 2024 coalition of new, often younger and non-white voters—once feared to spell lasting change—has dissipated just as quickly as it formed. The primary driver seems to be economic dissatisfaction, with a strong negative emotional sentiment dominating the electorate. The Democratic outlook looks rosier, and Miller concludes on a rare optimistic note, suggesting anti-Trump energy is now better motivated and more unified than the pro-Trump bloc.

---

End of summary.

Transcript

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[Andy]

Hi, everybody, it's Andy and James here from your next favorite podcast. No such thing as a fish.

[Tim Miller]

That's right.

[James]

We do fun facts.

[Andy]

Yes, we do. James, give me a fact.

[James]

Did you know that there is an extinct bandicoot whose official scientific name is Crash Bandicoot?

[Tim Miller]

Lovely.

[Andy]

I didn't know that. Did you know, James, that Upper Egypt is technically below Lower Egypt?

[James]

Incredible. Absolutely amazing. I would love to hear more about that.

[Andy]

Well, all you have to do is go and listen to no such thing as a fish.

[James]

Where will I find it all over. Okay, bye.

[Andy]

Bye.

[Tim Miller]

Hey, everybody, it's Tim Miller from the Bulwark. There's a new poll out from the New York Times and Siena and viewers of the channel know I have been.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I've been picky and juicy about wanting.

[Tim Miller]

To get into poll content. We're far away from another election. You know, these things have margin of errors. We've been burned before. But every once in a while, something comes out that I think really distills.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Something very important about our moment.

[Tim Miller]

And this New York Times Siena poll.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I think, has revealed something that is important to break down about Donald Trump's declining political standing.

[Tim Miller]

And I think this is important because.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

The Trump win in 2024 was a nightmare on so many different vectors.

[Tim Miller]

But one thing that I think was.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Especially concerning for a lot of us.

[Tim Miller]

Was the way that he managed to cobble together a new coalition that he hadn't had in 2016 and 20, and that he brought in a lot of New voters, particularly young voters, particularly black and Hispanic men.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

There's some other groups too, but those are the two main groups.

[Tim Miller]

And for those of us projecting out.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

If this is a realignment where MAGA Republicans are doing better among young voters.

[Tim Miller]

Among black and brown men, among people who don't show up to the polls.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

That much, that's an important realignment that makes us much more susceptible to some kind of permanent quasi MAGA authoritarianism caveat always applying, assuming we have free and fair elections, et cetera, et cetera.

[Tim Miller]

So the Siena poll, I think, is important not just because Donald Trump's approval rate is shit.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

And let me tell you, Donald Trump's approval rate is shit.

[Tim Miller]

The Siena poll is important because we learn who the voters are that got onto the Trump train in 2024 and.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Have since jumped off over the course of the first year.

[Tim Miller]

And learning about who those important voters are is important for political strategy and.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Understanding the way forward.

[Tim Miller]

So let's dig into this. Basically, what I would call the headline of this poll is the second Trump coalition has unraveled. Trump's approval rating is at 40% disapproved, 57%. Where is that movement coming from? Well, what Nate Cohn and the folks at New York Times and CN have found is that the major demographic shifts of the last election have snapped back. In today's poll, Trump's approval rating by demographic group looks almost exactly as it did in the run up to his defeat in 2020. So what we have here now is some evidence that there has not really.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Been a permanent realignment, that this sort.

[Tim Miller]

Of aspirational, multicultural working class coalition that.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

A lot of MAGA commentators were talking about, that coalition lasted a year.

[Tim Miller]

And the people that had come on.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Board and joined that coalition have decided that they don't like the smell and they were the last ones on the train and they're the first ones off.

[Tim Miller]

In short, Nate Cohn puts it bluntly. If anything, young and non white voters are even likelier to disapprove of Mr.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Trump than they were back in 2020.

[Tim Miller]

While Trump retains most of his support.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Among older and white voters. Womp, womp.

[Tim Miller]

I want to just take a look.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

At the chart here together.

[Tim Miller]

So you're looking at net support here.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Right?

[Tim Miller]

So that vertical line on the right.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Side of the graph would be the marker of being, even being basically 50, 50. So you can see Trump is above water with white voters there, a little bit under plus 10. And you can see there's no movement with non white voters at the top.

[Tim Miller]

Of the chart there you look at.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

The 2020 number he was. This chart doesn't give you the exact numbers here, but looks like kind of around minus 35. In 2024, he gained to where he's minus. Only call it around 25.

[Tim Miller]

Now in 2026, he's almost minus 50. So not only has he lost the support he gained, but even additional people have jumped off the train.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

So Trump is really struggling with non white voters.

[Tim Miller]

Also with young voters.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

You're seeing the same right where in 2020 you see there he was minus about 25. Then in 2024, Kamala Harris got pretty close to even the young voters preferring Harris by somewhere between 5 and 10%. Now you see young voters again. Now that arrow is pointing close to minus 50 as well. So just total collapse among young voters 18 to 29 as well as non white voters. While the whites, the older whites, the 30 plus whites, my people bad, they're still staying about where they were before the election.

[Tim Miller]

I want to get into a couple.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Of other big takeaways from this, things we can learn.

[Tim Miller]

Democrats lead by 5 nationwide in the generic ballot. This is pretty good. This is again, it's about basically the nuts to this poll is that the.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Things have snapped back to about where they were in 2020.

[Tim Miller]

Democrats won the House in 2020. Senate ends up being a coin flip, 50, 50. And so really Democrats are going to.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Kind of push that number up this time if you want the goal of taking back the House and the Senate. But I think things continue to look very good in the House of Representatives for the Democrats in the midterms. And I'll likely Speaker Jeffries, if you.

[Tim Miller]

Go through the issues, it's important here to note that he's underwater on basically all the issues.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

-17 on immigration, 18 on the economy, 19 on foreign relations, -30 on the cost of living, -44 on the Epstein files.

[Tim Miller]

And so there are a lot of things that are driving this snapback in support.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I would assume this is not in Nate Cohen's analysis, but I would assume that immigration stuff and just this horrific ICE enforcement is having an impact on, on the Hispanic voters snapping back.

[Tim Miller]

But what Cohen finds is that like.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Broadly speaking, the evidence is that it's the economy that's driving voters away from Trump. On question after question, voters gives them negative marks in the handling of that issue. Cohn says including just 34% approve his handling of the cost of living, compared with 64% who disapprove. So again, that's a minus 30 on the cost of Living.

[Tim Miller]

And then I think the key point here is looking at this group that we care about, like, who are the, who are the switchers? What word does Sarah use for these people? Switchers. Sounds right.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I've taken a little break from the focus group. We love Sarah.

[Tim Miller]

We love Sarah. You should watch the focus group, but I'm going to start watching it again soon.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

But I just.

[Tim Miller]

Mental health switchers.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I think that's what she calls them.

[Tim Miller]

Flippers.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Flippers. There it is.

[Tim Miller]

Flippers. These people we care about, they voted for Trump.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Now they're off. What can we learn about them?

[Tim Miller]

And again, it's mostly the economy. What we see here is among all.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Voters, when you ask them what the biggest problem is facing the country, about.

[Tim Miller]

One in four say an economic issue.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Some say immigration, some say just trumping crazy corruption, democracy, foreign affairs. Various things come up.

[Tim Miller]

Among the voters who flipped, 44% of.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Them cite economic issues.

[Tim Miller]

So almost half. So not all, though, you know. So as I mentioned, I think the Hispanic community, immigration is coming up. I think Israel is something that was brought up.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

I think a lot of the younger voters were fooled by Trump and thought that he was going to be better on the Gaza genocide than Harris, which is unbelievably stupid.

[Tim Miller]

But here we are, the Board of Peace. Jared Kushner had a PowerPoint today at Davos talking about all the great high rises his real estate buddies are going to be building in Gaza. So a couple issues, but economy, main takeaway. Sorry for that digression. Main takeaway. Economy is the big reason, but there.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Are some other issues that are causing folks to jump off the Trump train.

[Tim Miller]

Lastly, I just want to say there's another poll coming out today. I wouldn't usually mention this, but just as far as kind of verifying, making sure this is an outlier, Emerson had a poll out, had Trump at 43% approved, 51% disapproved.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

So slightly better. What we see from New York Times. CN I like to focus on that poll because I just think Nate Cohen does a really good job of being rigorous. He caught a lot of the movement that we saw in 2024 last time and just does a good job of breaking it down. And so I like to focus on New York Times. Sienna. But Emerson directionally verifies that this is the ballpark of where the country is on Trump.

[Tim Miller]

I want to get to one last.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Question, and I'm usually such a downer.

[Tim Miller]

As I was digging through the cross.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Tabs of the New York Times poll, there's one thing that Cohen didn't mention in his analysis.

[Tim Miller]

That caught my eye and it gave me a little skip my step this.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Morning, gave me a little pick me up.

[Tim Miller]

So if you're looking for a little.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Pick me up, let's do this together.

[Tim Miller]

And that was the question is what emotion best describes how you feel about.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Donald Trump's presidency so far?

[Tim Miller]

Just think about that.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

What would your answer be?

[Tim Miller]

Just think about a word. Okay, now they offer a bunch of options. Enthusiasm or pride. Hope, relief, satisfaction. Just neutral confusion or shock, Disappointment or.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Sadness, Disgust or derision.

[Tim Miller]

Now we're talking fear, anxiety, hostility or outrage.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

It's not the one I like are people who don't know and refused.

[Tim Miller]

So you look at those answers and there's kind of like a bucket of.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Positive answers that you'd think Trump supporters.

[Tim Miller]

Would give, and there's a bucket of.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Negative answers that you think that people who oppose Trump would give. And then there's some things that are more of a mixed bag for our flippers, for people in the middle.

[Tim Miller]

And what struck me here.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Let's pull this poll up on the screen now.

[Tim Miller]

And here's what struck me. Among Trump supporters, the emotion that best described how they felt was satisfaction. Satisfaction. That's not like enthusiasm. I don't know.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Think about things that you're satisfied by.

[Tim Miller]

You know, satisfaction is. Okay, Rolling Stones say it's bad when you can't get no satisfaction. So it's nice to have satisfaction. It's nice to be satisfied. But if you think about your favorite.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Things, like when I think about the Oasis concert I went to last year, I wouldn't say I was satisfied by that. When I think about big milestones for my child satisfied, I usually be like, it kind of would be a tinge of disappointment, right?

[Tim Miller]

If you're very. If you make your personality about something.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

If you're a red hat person, if.

[Tim Miller]

You'Re really into Donald Trump saying that you're satisfied, it's almost a little bit.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Like, I wanted a little more.

[Tim Miller]

Anyway, that was the one that came up most, enthusiasm or Pride only had 9%. Hope only had 3%. So if you kind of look at those numbers together, you only have about 30% that have a very positive emotional association with Trump. Right? Now, look at the other side of that ledger. Disappointment, sadness is 16%. So some of those could be some.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Of these flippers who wanted better from Trump. Some of them are other folks.

[Tim Miller]

Then the biggest number, hostility, outrage, 20%. Hostility, outrage, 20%. You add in disgust and derision. 29%. That's 29% who feel disgusted or outraged by Trump versus only 9% who feel enthusiastic, are proud. I think that tells you a lot. I think it tells you a lot that the Trump base has a very small number who are like, I'm loving.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

What he's doing right now. I love shooting. Having ICE agents shoot lesbians in the face in their Honda Pilot. I love trying to steal Greenland. I love coups in Venezuela. I'm loving the crypto corruption. I'm loving that the libs are owned.

[Tim Miller]

That's only 9%. It's a lot of people. 9% of the country, big country, but only 9%. And you add in hope, it's 12%. Relief, I guess, is maybe positive because.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

It'S relief that bidens are gone.

[Tim Miller]

14%. It's pretty small. Then you have 19 in that satisfaction category, which I would call somewhat favorable. Then on the other side, 29% of people fucking hate this, are disgusted by.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

It, are outraged by it.

[Tim Miller]

To me, that shows that there's more of us than there are of them when it comes to people that are.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Highly motivated by what's happening right now.

[Tim Miller]

And that's a good place to be. And so I'm happy the New York.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Times asked that question. What emotion best describes how you feel about Trump's presidency?

[Tim Miller]

Because I think what it revealed is that there's a tinge of disappointment in Maga world and there is a unified.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

Rage in never Trumper world. And I think that will potentially end up yielding some positive political results. So there's my little bit of good.

[Tim Miller]

News for today, everybody. Subscribe to the feedback. If you're new, come on. This is it. This is the good shit all the time. If you're a frequent viewer and you haven't subscribed yet, do it now. Comment like, appreciate y' all so much.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

We'll be seeing you soon. Peace.

[Andy]

Hi, everybody. It's Andy and James here from your next favorite podcast, no Such Thing as a Fish.

[Unidentified Political Commentator]

That's right.

[James]

We do fun facts.

[Andy]

Yes, we do. James, give me a fact.

[James]

Did you know that there is an extinct bandicoot whose official scientific name is Crash Bandicoot?

[Andy]

Lovely. I didn't know that. Did you know, James, that Upper Egypt is technically below Lower Egypt?

[James]

Incredible. Absolutely amazing. I would love to hear more about that.

[Andy]

Well, all you have to do is go and listen to no Such Thing as a Fish.

[James]

Where will I find it? All over. Okay, bye.

[Andy]

Bye.