Trump’s Nightmare Poll as Budget Bill is Big Loser

Summary

Bulwark Takes: Summary of "Trump’s Nightmare Poll as Budget Bill is Big Loser"

Release Date: June 10, 2025

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, the Bulwark team delves into the latest political developments surrounding President Trump’s proposed budget bill and its implications for the Republican Party. Hosted by prominent figures from The Bulwark, including Tim Miller, Sarah Longwell, and Bill Kristol, the discussion primarily focuses on the recent poll results from Economist and YouGov, highlighting the bill's unpopularity among various voter demographics.

1. Overview of the Pollocalypse

The episode opens with a critical analysis of a new poll conducted by Economist and YouGov, which the host refers to colloquially as a "pollpocalypse" for the GOP's flagship bill, disparagingly nicknamed the "Big Fugly Turd" (BBB). This bill, an extension of Trump-era tax cuts combined with additional measures such as Medicaid cuts and reductions in food benefits, has faced substantial backlash.

Notable Quote:

"The Big Fugly Turd is an absolute disaster for Republicans. It shouldn't be a surprise. We've been talking about it on here. This bill is not popular."
— Political Analyst [01:25]

2. Breakdown of the Budget Bill

The budget bill primarily aims to extend tax cuts, predominantly benefiting the wealthiest Americans, while simultaneously slashing essential services for lower-income populations. This includes eliminating the tax on tips, reducing Medicaid funding, and cutting SNAP benefits, among other measures.

Key Points:

• Tax Reforms: Extension of Trump’s tax cuts with additional reductions.
• Healthcare and Food Benefits: Significant cuts to Medicaid and SNAP.
• Economic Impact: Targeted benefits towards the top income brackets, with adverse effects on the working and lower-middle class.

3. Public Opinion and Voter Demographics

The poll reveals a stark division in public opinion, with a significant majority opposing the bill. Specifically, 56% of respondents agree with Elon Musk's critique that the budget will exacerbate the national deficit to $2.5 trillion, while only 17% disagree. Among Trump voters, the support drops notably:

Notable Quotes:

"Only 31% of Trump voters disagreed [with Musk’s statement]. Overwhelming among liberal voters, overwhelming among Democrats, overwhelming among upper scale voters."
— Political Analyst [02:15]

When questioned directly about support for Trump’s proposed budget, only 30% expressed support, while 50% opposed it. This opposition spans across various demographics, including:

• Black Voters: 61% oppose
• Harris Voters: 89% oppose
• Liberals: 88% oppose
• Democrats: 82% oppose
• Income Levels: No demographic subgroup above 38% support, except Republicans and Trump voters.

4. Implications for the Republican Party

The unpopularity of the budget bill poses significant challenges for Republicans, particularly in the lead-up to the midterm elections. The analyst emphasizes that even among Trump supporters, there is a notable opposition, with 19% opposing the budget bill directly associated with Trump's name.

Notable Quote:

"Even the Trump supporters, only 68% of them support that is just an utter, utter nightmare. 19% of Trump supporters oppose that."
— Political Analyst [05:10]

5. Strategic Recommendations for Democrats

Given the bill's unpopularity, the analyst advises Democrats to capitalize on this momentum by:

• Raising Awareness: Increasing the salience of the budget issues in public discourse.
• Engaging Voters: Encouraging constituents to contact their senators to oppose the bill.
• Targeting Weaknesses: Highlighting dissent within Republican ranks, such as opposition from senators like Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Josh Hawley.

Notable Quote:

"The Democrats have to be on their front foot on this... Go into Fox and pick fights on this issue."
— Political Analyst [05:50]

6. Future Outlook and Potential Outcomes

The episode concludes with an outlook that predicts the bill’s failure due to its widespread unpopularity. The analyst underscores the potential for legislative standoffs, especially if the Senate introduces amendments or if the House faces internal conflicts.

Key Takeaways:

• Legislative Hurdles: Potential for the bill to stall in the Senate or face challenges in the House.
• Midterm Impact: The bill’s failure could negatively affect Republicans in upcoming elections.
• Voter Mobilization: Emphasis on the importance of voter action in opposing the bill.

Notable Quote:

"I think that there is significant trouble ahead on this bill. I think it's a loser. It's going to hurt these guys in the midterms and man, it is."
— Political Analyst [06:45]

Conclusion

This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a comprehensive analysis of the precarious position the Republican Party finds itself in due to the unpopularity of President Trump’s budget bill. With substantial opposition across various voter demographics and potential legislative challenges ahead, the bill stands as a significant liability for the GOP, particularly as midterm elections approach. The Bulwark team underscores the importance of strategic voter engagement and leveraging the current dissatisfaction to influence future political outcomes.

---

For more detailed insights and analysis, listeners are encouraged to visit The Bulwark's official website or tune into upcoming episodes of Bulwark Takes.

Transcript

[Political Commentator]

Rural communities are being squeezed from every side, from rising health care costs to crumbling hospitals, from attacks on public schools to the fight for paid family and medical leave. Farmers and small businesses are reeling from the trade war. And now Project 2025 is back with a plan to finish what Elon Musk started. Trump and the Republicans won rural votes, then turned their backs on us. Join the Country Project for the rural progress summit, July 8th through the 10th. This free virtual event brings together leaders like Senator Heidi Heikamp, Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Governor Andy Beshear, and others for real talk and real solutions. Together, we'll tackle the most urgent issues facing rural America. Register today or learn [e-mail].

[Religious Author]

Feeling restless and unfulfilled? Discover the secret to complete contentment, a devotional that leads you to true peace by living in God's abundant love. While the world offers fleeting satisfaction, God provides everything you need with each page. Grow closer to him and uncover the lasting joy found in his love. Don't wait. Experience the life God designed for you. Get your copy on Amazon or wherever you buy books.

[Political Analyst]

Hey, guys, we got a new poll From Economist and YouGov, which is a pollpocalypse for the BBB, whatever we're calling it these days, the Big Fugly Turd. It is an absolute disaster for Republicans. It shouldn't be a surprise. We've been talking about it on here. This bill is not popular. The components are not popular. It's unclear who even likes it, and now we have some data to prove it. But before I go into some of the details on this data, I just want to talk a little bit about my policy by talking about polls on this page, because we're very far away from the midterms, and sometimes I get asked to respond to polls and I say I don't care. And that annoys Sarah. And that's okay because Sarah's still very focused on the focus groups and the polls, and I honor and appreciate that. But my view is kind of like we're far away from elections. There's a lot of substance for us to worry about right now to get me to get my dander up over Trump being up three points or down three points in a poll that has a margin of error of 6 points. I just ain't gonna do it. And so I'm only gonna do poll content for you guys if there is something that is overwhelming in what its verdict is, either in opposition to what the administration's doing or otherwise. So that is what is the case here. Would not be talking about it if it was not for the fact that it's overwhelming. I mean, these guys at economist YouGov, they could be off by Ann Seltzer numbers. Ooh, sorry. They could be off by 15 points and it would still be a disaster for the pushers of the bbb. So here it is. And for folks who just, just for context are going to be coming in clean, this, you know, big fugly bill is the extension of the Trump tax cuts on top of some other tax cuts, no tax on tips, some other things, plus the Medicaid cuts, plus kind of a grab bag of other stuff, plus the snap cuts. So that's, that's basically the core of it. Cutting taxes mostly for folks on the top, cutting services and health care and food benefits for people towards the bottom. So not surprising that that's unpopular. But let's look at the numbers first, related to the Musk Trump feud. Do you agree or disagree with a statement from Elon Musk about the budget? It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to 2.5 trillion and burden American citizens with crushingly unsustainable debt. The conventional wisdom is people don't care about debt. But here it is, 56% agree with that. Only 17% disagree. The only number there, it looks like Trump voters, 31% of Trump voters disagreed, which is not very many. Overwhelming among liberal voters, overwhelming among Democrats, overwhelming among upper scale voters. So I think that shows that this bill is unpopular. It's going to be unpopular with working class voters because of the cuts and more upper middle class voters over to the debt issues. So there you go on the must Trump feud, at least when it comes to the budget deficit, that people are siding with Musk. And so an overall answer, from what you know about it, do you support or oppose President Trump's proposed budget? I like that framing of this question because it puts Trump's name in there. Right. And so it's like for people, if you just ask, do you support or oppose the congressional reconciliation bill? A lot of people might not think that, not be sure if they know what they're talking about. Most people get it, like what Trump is trying to push through as far as the budget, do you support or oppose it? Only 30% support, 50% oppose. Biggest groups on oppose black voters, 61% against Harris voters, 89% against liberals, 88% Dems 82 on income. It's pretty even across the board actually. If you look at income among the support, 30% support. It's not above 38% among any group except Republicans and Trump voters. There's no subgroup demographically that has it at 40%. So that is just a catastrophe. And how do you put together a bill like this that nobody likes? And even the Trump supporters, only 68% of them support that is just an utter, utter nightmare. 19% of Trump supporters oppose that. 1 in 5 Trump voters oppose the Trump budget with his name in it. That is astonishing. Interesting. Among Trump voters. Not that interesting really. Do you side with Trump or Musk? 73 Trump 7% Musk. Among Republicans 74 Trump 6. So Trump is winning the feud overall, even though voters agree with Musk basically on the specifics of the bill. So there you go. That is the latest from our friends at The Economist and YouGov. We will put a link here in the show notes for other crosstab divers like me that want to look through it. But to me, there are just a couple of final political takeaways here. One, the Democrats have to be on their front foot on this. I know I've said before the one area where I disagree is this. Like, I don't necessarily think that means they have to talk about nothing else. They have to pivot every question about Los Angeles into a question about the bbb. That's not real. It's not authentic. But look for every opportunity possible to raise the salience of this issue. Pick fights on this issue. Go into your districts and pick fights on this issue. Go into Fox and pick fights on this issue. Because even the there's some weakness even among Republicans. That is the advice to Democrats. The other thing is senators and voters. Call your senators. This thing is probably going to pass just out of inertia. I've said that from the start, but it's not 100%. Crazier things have happened. And we've seen Tyrese Halliburton shots at the end of the NBA playoff games. Crazier things have happened. And there is a decent group of Republican senators, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, Josh Hawley that have issues. So call your senators. Call the Republican senators. If you're down here in Louisiana, call Bill Cassidy, shame him about rfk, but also tell him to oppose this disaster of a bill. And you never know what happens. It'll be interesting to see what happens also when the Senate makes some changes, whether it goes back to the House and creates some trouble in the House. So I think that there is significant trouble ahead on this bill. I think it's a loser. It's going to hurt these guys in the midterms and man, it is. It's really something that this is the one piece of legislation these guys want to jam through. So that's the latest. 30, 50, 20 points underwater. Total nightmare. We'll be back here soon with any relevant breaking news for you guys, and we'll be seeing you then.

[Religious Author]

Feeling restless and unfulfilled? Discover the secret to complete contentment, a devotional that leads you to true peace by living in God's abundant love while the world offers fleeting satisfaction. God provides everything you need with each page. Grow closer to him and uncover the lasting joy found in his love. Don't wait. Experience the life God designed for you. Get your copy on Amazon or wherever you buy books. Call from Mom. Answer it. Call silenced.

[Advertiser]

Instacart knows nothing gets between you and the game. That's why they make ordering from your couch easy. Stock up today and get all your groceries for the week delivered in as fast as 30 minutes without missing a minute of the game.

[Religious Author]

You have 47 new voicemails.

[Advertiser]

Download the app to get free Delivery on your first three orders while supplies last. Minimum $10 per order. Additional term supply.