Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – Trump’s Poll Numbers Are in the Toilet

Episode Details:

• Title: Trump’s Poll Numbers Are in the Toilet
• Host/Author: The Bulwark
• Release Date: February 21, 2025

Introduction to the Decline in Trump’s Approval Ratings

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sarah Longwell and her colleague JVL delve into the significant downturn in Donald Trump’s approval ratings early into his second term. The discussion centers around recent polling data indicating a sharp decline in Trump’s popularity, a trend that marks the “worst day of polling” for him during his tenure.

Current State of Trump’s Poll Numbers

Sarah Longwell opens the conversation by highlighting alarming trends in Trump’s approval ratings. Referencing multiple polls, she notes that Trump’s net approval is not just low but “underwater,” a term metaphorically used to describe his negative standing compared to previous presidents.

• Poll Details:
  • CNN: Net approval at -5 points
  • Gallup: Net approval at -6 points
  • Ipsos: Net approval at -7 points
  • Quinnipiac: Net approval at -4 points

Harry Enten, featured in the episode, emphasizes the consistency across these polls: “These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater, like the Little Mermaid” (00:34).

Sarah contrasts Trump’s current approval with historical data, pointing out that while Trump entered his second term with a net approval around 8%, this is significantly lower than predecessors like Obama, Biden, H.W. Bush, and Clinton, who enjoyed approximately 60-68% approval at the onset of their terms.

Reasons Behind the Decline

The hosts explore several factors contributing to the rapid decline in Trump’s approval ratings:

1. Economic Mismanagement:

   • Inflation and Rising Costs: A central theme is Trump’s handling of the economy, particularly the surge in inflation and rising prices, which voters find increasingly burdensome. Sarah notes, “Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater” (07:06).
   • Specific Economic Concerns: The price of essentials, such as eggs reaching $8 for the first time in American history, underscores the economic distress felt by average Americans. JVL highlights, “$8. For the first time in American history, we have $8 eggs as of today” (09:49).

2. Immigration Policies and Deportations:

   • Sarah discusses the backlash from Trump’s immigration stance, where initial voter support for deporting criminals has morphed into frustration as the policies extend to deporting non-criminals and long-term residents. She explains, “they thought he was gonna deport criminals... he’s deporting, like my neighbors and the guy who was around for 20 years” (05:03).

3. Focus on Foreign Policy:

   • The administration’s attention to foreign matters, such as relations with Ukraine and interactions with Vladimir Putin, is seen as neglecting pressing domestic issues. JVL criticizes Trump’s focus, stating, “he's spending all of his time taunting Volodymyr Zelensky and sucking up to Putin when people are pissed about the price of eggs” (13:23).

4. Government Dysfunction:

   • The rapid dismantling of federal institutions without clear plans for improvement has led to governmental inefficiency, further alienating voters. JVL remarks, “he's....wrecking the federal government” (10:05).

Voter Perceptions and Behavior

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the evolving mindset of Trump’s voter base:

• Shift in Voter Expectations:

  • Sarah posits that voters initially supported Trump with specific economic expectations, such as lowering costs and making life more affordable. However, Trump’s failure to deliver on these fronts has led to disillusionment.

• Diverse Trump Voter Coalition:

  • JVL and Sarah acknowledge that not all Trump voters are the same. While some back Trump for his staunch stances on issues like immigration and his combative approach towards political opponents, others are primarily concerned with economic improvement. This latter group’s dissatisfaction is instrumental in the observed decline in approval ratings.

• Voter Delusion and Self-Reporting:

  • The hosts touch upon the concept of self-delusion in voter behavior, suggesting that voters may have idealized notions of Trump’s agenda, leading to unmet expectations when policies are implemented differently than anticipated.

Implications for the Republican Party and Future Politics

The declining approval ratings of Trump carry broader implications for the Republican Party and the upcoming political landscape:

• Impact on GOP Lawmakers:

  • Sarah and JVL discuss how the dip in Trump’s approval might embolden Republican lawmakers to diverge from his agenda, recognizing that the perceived mandate is not as robust as previously thought. Sarah observes, “the only other metric he really cares about is the stock market” (18:17), indicating a potential shift in focus away from broad policy initiatives to more specific economic indicators.

• Encouraging Positive Changes:

  • The hosts express cautious optimism that falling approval numbers could lead to more constructive political dynamics within the GOP, allowing for a broader range of policies and strategies beyond Trump’s immediate influence.

• Comparison to Biden’s Struggles:

  • Drawing parallels to Joe Biden’s presidency, which struggled to recover from the summer of 2021 due to Afghanistan withdrawal and the Delta variant resurgence, Sarah suggests that Trump’s early challenges mirror Biden’s earlier setbacks, potentially setting a precedent for swift shifts in public opinion.

Conclusion and Final Insights

Sarah Longwell and JVL conclude the episode by reflecting on the significance of the current polling trends. They acknowledge the complexities of voter motivations and the multifaceted reasons behind the decline in Trump’s popularity. The discussion underscores the critical role of economic management in presidential approval and hints at a possible turning tide for Trump if these negative trends continue.

Sarah summarizes, “Maybe it's true that people are genuinely feeling pain in this economy and that it ate up Biden and now it's going to eat up Trump” (14:40), encapsulating the episode’s central thesis that economic dissatisfaction is a potent force influencing voter sentiment against incumbent leaders.

Notable Quotes:

• Harry Enten (00:34): “These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater, like the Little Mermaid.”

• JVL (09:49): “$8. For the first time in American history, we have $8 eggs as of today.”

• Sarah Longwell (07:06): “Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater.”

• JVL (18:17): “the only other thing he takes, is a relevant poll, his approval ratings in the stock market.”

This detailed exploration in Bulwark Takes provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate surrounding Donald Trump’s presidency, emphasizing the interplay between economic policies and public approval.