Trump’s Poll Numbers Are in the Toilet

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – Trump’s Poll Numbers Are in the Toilet

Episode Details:

• Title: Trump’s Poll Numbers Are in the Toilet
• Host/Author: The Bulwark
• Release Date: February 21, 2025

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Introduction to the Decline in Trump’s Approval Ratings

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sarah Longwell and her colleague JVL delve into the significant downturn in Donald Trump’s approval ratings early into his second term. The discussion centers around recent polling data indicating a sharp decline in Trump’s popularity, a trend that marks the “worst day of polling” for him during his tenure.

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Current State of Trump’s Poll Numbers

Sarah Longwell opens the conversation by highlighting alarming trends in Trump’s approval ratings. Referencing multiple polls, she notes that Trump’s net approval is not just low but “underwater,” a term metaphorically used to describe his negative standing compared to previous presidents.

• Poll Details:
  • CNN: Net approval at -5 points
  • Gallup: Net approval at -6 points
  • Ipsos: Net approval at -7 points
  • Quinnipiac: Net approval at -4 points

Harry Enten, featured in the episode, emphasizes the consistency across these polls: “These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater, like the Little Mermaid” (00:34).

Sarah contrasts Trump’s current approval with historical data, pointing out that while Trump entered his second term with a net approval around 8%, this is significantly lower than predecessors like Obama, Biden, H.W. Bush, and Clinton, who enjoyed approximately 60-68% approval at the onset of their terms.

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Reasons Behind the Decline

The hosts explore several factors contributing to the rapid decline in Trump’s approval ratings:

1. Economic Mismanagement:

   • Inflation and Rising Costs: A central theme is Trump’s handling of the economy, particularly the surge in inflation and rising prices, which voters find increasingly burdensome. Sarah notes, “Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater” (07:06).
   • Specific Economic Concerns: The price of essentials, such as eggs reaching $8 for the first time in American history, underscores the economic distress felt by average Americans. JVL highlights, “$8. For the first time in American history, we have $8 eggs as of today” (09:49).

2. Immigration Policies and Deportations:

   • Sarah discusses the backlash from Trump’s immigration stance, where initial voter support for deporting criminals has morphed into frustration as the policies extend to deporting non-criminals and long-term residents. She explains, “they thought he was gonna deport criminals... he’s deporting, like my neighbors and the guy who was around for 20 years” (05:03).

3. Focus on Foreign Policy:

   • The administration’s attention to foreign matters, such as relations with Ukraine and interactions with Vladimir Putin, is seen as neglecting pressing domestic issues. JVL criticizes Trump’s focus, stating, “he's spending all of his time taunting Volodymyr Zelensky and sucking up to Putin when people are pissed about the price of eggs” (13:23).

4. Government Dysfunction:

   • The rapid dismantling of federal institutions without clear plans for improvement has led to governmental inefficiency, further alienating voters. JVL remarks, “he's....wrecking the federal government” (10:05).

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Voter Perceptions and Behavior

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the evolving mindset of Trump’s voter base:

• Shift in Voter Expectations:

  • Sarah posits that voters initially supported Trump with specific economic expectations, such as lowering costs and making life more affordable. However, Trump’s failure to deliver on these fronts has led to disillusionment.

• Diverse Trump Voter Coalition:

  • JVL and Sarah acknowledge that not all Trump voters are the same. While some back Trump for his staunch stances on issues like immigration and his combative approach towards political opponents, others are primarily concerned with economic improvement. This latter group’s dissatisfaction is instrumental in the observed decline in approval ratings.

• Voter Delusion and Self-Reporting:

  • The hosts touch upon the concept of self-delusion in voter behavior, suggesting that voters may have idealized notions of Trump’s agenda, leading to unmet expectations when policies are implemented differently than anticipated.

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Implications for the Republican Party and Future Politics

The declining approval ratings of Trump carry broader implications for the Republican Party and the upcoming political landscape:

• Impact on GOP Lawmakers:

  • Sarah and JVL discuss how the dip in Trump’s approval might embolden Republican lawmakers to diverge from his agenda, recognizing that the perceived mandate is not as robust as previously thought. Sarah observes, “the only other metric he really cares about is the stock market” (18:17), indicating a potential shift in focus away from broad policy initiatives to more specific economic indicators.

• Encouraging Positive Changes:

  • The hosts express cautious optimism that falling approval numbers could lead to more constructive political dynamics within the GOP, allowing for a broader range of policies and strategies beyond Trump’s immediate influence.

• Comparison to Biden’s Struggles:

  • Drawing parallels to Joe Biden’s presidency, which struggled to recover from the summer of 2021 due to Afghanistan withdrawal and the Delta variant resurgence, Sarah suggests that Trump’s early challenges mirror Biden’s earlier setbacks, potentially setting a precedent for swift shifts in public opinion.

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Conclusion and Final Insights

Sarah Longwell and JVL conclude the episode by reflecting on the significance of the current polling trends. They acknowledge the complexities of voter motivations and the multifaceted reasons behind the decline in Trump’s popularity. The discussion underscores the critical role of economic management in presidential approval and hints at a possible turning tide for Trump if these negative trends continue.

Sarah summarizes, “Maybe it's true that people are genuinely feeling pain in this economy and that it ate up Biden and now it's going to eat up Trump” (14:40), encapsulating the episode’s central thesis that economic dissatisfaction is a potent force influencing voter sentiment against incumbent leaders.

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Notable Quotes:

• Harry Enten (00:34): “These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater, like the Little Mermaid.”

• JVL (09:49): “$8. For the first time in American history, we have $8 eggs as of today.”

• Sarah Longwell (07:06): “Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater.”

• JVL (18:17): “the only other thing he takes, is a relevant poll, his approval ratings in the stock market.”

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This detailed exploration in Bulwark Takes provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current political climate surrounding Donald Trump’s presidency, emphasizing the interplay between economic policies and public approval.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, everyone. Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. And I am joined by my best friend, jvl. What's up, my man?

[jvl]

Hey. Hey.

[Sarah Longwell]

We were just talking about something else and as is our want, we decided we should jump on and talk to you guys about what we were talking about, which is the fact that it's possible and JBL is the person JBL is my go to for. If there's ever any schadenfreude. If there's ever any schadenfreude, I gotta get my boy. Is it possible the honeymoon is ending? Because there's been four different polls that have come out recently that all show Trump, his approval rating dropping. Now, Trump entered his second term relatively popular for him. Relatively popular for him, which was somewhere around 8%. Like net 8% approval. According to 538's tracker. In raw numbers, that was roughly 50% approve, 42% disapprove, with the rest unsure. So while this is historically low compared to past presidents approval at the onset of their term, this is like, for example, Gallup had Obama at 68% approval when he entered office. Biden, H.W. and Clinton all had about 60% approval. So Trump at 50% is not great. However, for a guy who lives underwater, it is better than he's done. But just four weeks into his term, Trump's approval rating is dropping. It's falling fast. Let's listen.

[Harry Enten]

Last day and change has been the worst day of polling for Donald Trump during his entire second term in office. What am I talking about here? Take a look at Trump's NET approval rating. CNN, you see it on this side of the screen. Minus 5, Gallup, minus 6. Ipsos minus 7, Quinnipiac minus 4. Negative, negative, negative, negative. Underwater, underwater, underwater, underwater. These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater, like the Little Mermaid.

[jvl]

All right, what are the changes since.

[Sarah Longwell]

The beginning of his term? January.

[jvl]

Right.

[Harry Enten]

All right, so we don't have a CNN poll to compare, but we do have the other three pollsters that we can look at. Trump's net approval rating, the change since January. Look at this. Gallup down five points. Quinnipiac down seven points. Ipsos down 13 points.

[Sarah Longwell]

I don't know about you. I think Harry Enten seems as happy as we are about this drop in his poll numbers.

[jvl]

He's like, Ursula, sing for me.

[Sarah Longwell]

Underwater, like the Little Mermaid. You think he practiced that in the mirror?

[jvl]

That was boy, Harry Harry had his Wheaties. You know, let me just say, first of all, Trump was more popular for the last month than he's ever been in his political career, more so than at the start of his first term in 2017. I, this is part of what made me so depressed over the last month, because I did not understand how on year eight, with everything, with the million dead from COVID with the insurrection, with the convictions, with the indictments, with the Arnold Palmer penis, with all of those things, I could not understand why Trump was more popular than he had ever been. But you and I had a little, we had a little tiff yesterday during Next Level, and it was me just, you know, saying some very frank and unguarded things about voters. And in large part this was driven by the fact that the polls hadn't moved yet. And so we were fighting about was me saying, you saying the voters didn't vote for this. I'm abstracting this literally, but I think the crux of it was you thought the voters didn't vote for what they're getting from Trump. And I was saying, I think they did. I think this is what they knew. And in part that was driven by the fact that he's been in our life for eight years and they voted for him twice or three times. But the other part was that what he's doing is so different from the like, you know, I'm going to solve Ukraine, we'll have peace on day one, prices will go down on day two. That I did not understand why his approval was higher than it had ever been and hadn't started moving. And now, lo and behold, they're moving now, would it? Sarah. Sarah. Friend.

[Sarah Longwell]

Best friend.

[jvl]

Best friend. If I told you that these polls were conducted by Ann Selzer, would that change your mood?

[Sarah Longwell]

Look, man, I think Ann, I think everybody deserves an outlier. I know Tim can't hear her name.

[jvl]

I know, I know. I don't mean to be throwing shade, I'm just saying. So what do you make of it? So I'm sitting here thinking, Sarah's always right, Sarah's vindicated.

[Sarah Longwell]

I would love for that to be true. I'm not positive that it is. I think a couple things are happening and I want to get into one of them. Cuz it's actually at the center of another debate you and I have had for a long time. Because one of the most interesting things is the fact that Trump's approval rating on the economy is as low as it's ever been. So Trump is often has low approval Ratings, he's almost always underwater. But the one place he tends to do better than everywhere else is on the economy. And I have been sitting here listening to voters and the focus groups. Now, granted, the groups I've been really focused on since the election have been these Biden to Trump voters. And they've been relatively, I wouldn't say they're not all full steam ahead. You hear on the immigration, you know, pod that I did with our boy Adrian, you know, we kind of, the voters were like kind of in two camps. There were the ones who were like, yeah, deport them all. He's doing something. Thank God he's doing something about it. Sorry about it. If we catch a few Puerto Ricans on the way out, that was our bad. But then there's the other group that was kind of like, you know, I just thought he was gonna deport criminals. But he's deporting, like my neighbors and the guy who was around for 20 years, who just went to his job every day and never broke the law. And so I'm nervous about what's happening. And so I think that embedded in some of these numbers are people who voted for him because they're like, well, I wanted him to lower costs. That's what I want right away, lower costs. And I want him to do some of the things like, okay, I'm okay with deporting criminals, but they're seeing that he's going further than they anticipated. Now, to be fair to Trump, I think he was pretty clear he was gonna do more than deport just criminals, but voters, and this is a point that I try to make often, they don't always catch all this. Right. There's a lot of self delusion in what people do where they.

[jvl]

That's such a kind way of saying it. Yeah, well, people always catch all of this.

[Sarah Longwell]

Look, I just think people say they tell themselves what they wanna hear. They wanna hear that he's gonna deport criminals. Cause that's what they think sounds reasonable. And they throw out the rest. But of course he's doing the rest. But this, I wanna go back to this economic piece because the drop is in part happening because people don't like Trump's handling of the economy. Listen to this clip.

[Harry Enten]

One of Donald Trump's great Strengths during the 2024 campaign was the economy. The idea that Donald Trump could fix the economy. This was one of Donald Trump's great strengths. Now it's one of his great weaknesses. What am I talking about? Trump's net approval rating. You go back to his first term, February 2017. Ipsos. He was at plus 16 points on his net approval. Quinnipiac plus six. Look at where he is now in Ipsos. He's eight point underwater on the economy. Quinnipiac four points under on the economy. I honestly never thought I'd see the day in which Donald Trump would be polling so poor on the economy, but that day is here. As I said last week, inflation ate the Joe Biden presidency alive. And right now, it's. It is very much the case that Donald Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, so here's where I want to do a very cautious. Maybe Sarah was right. And here it is. It's on this idea that you and I have argued for a long time about the health of the macro economy. And I was saying, like, oh. Cause you're like, why are all these voters blaming Biden? The economy's actually good. It's not fair. It's. You know, and I think, and you can correct me if I'm wrong, but you might have said, or your contention was that when Trump's in office, a whole bunch of people are gonna suddenly say, oh, look, the economy's great. They would suddenly recognize that it was great. But I think it's possible that actually the consternation about the economy was very real. And Donald Trump's lack of attention to it, it's sort of like, maybe not exactly the same, but the way that Joe Biden maybe focused on some things that were not at the top of people's priority list hurt him a great deal. Similarly, Donald Trump's focus on Doge and sort of dismantling the government, There's a lot of people who are like, yes, go, go, go. But there was a whole bunch of other Trump voters who are not big MAGA types, who are not particularly ideological, who are like, no, bro, I just want you to do something about the economy. And they're impatient types of voters. And so I feel like they're the ones saying, he's not even doing anything about the economy. In fact, nothing's getting better. Eggs are even more expensive, although that's part of the bird flu.

[jvl]

But, like, $8, $8. For the first time in American history, we have $8 eggs as of today.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, but what do you make of this theory of mine, potentially, that actually voters still do view the economy as negative and it's starting to hurt Trump?

[jvl]

I think that's possible. And this is why, again, seeing his numbers move from where they've been over the last month is very, very encouraging. Today at cpac, JD Vance did some justifying of Trump's record and about prices and inflation and tried blaming Joe Biden and said, you know, I mean, they, you know, it was such a disaster. They wrecked the economy so fast. Anybody can break, anybody can wreck things quickly, but it takes time to fix them. And I just thought to myself, that's what you say when you're losing. Yes, right. That's, that's loser talk. And it's, it's also, of course, projection, because what the, the Trump administration is doing is absolutely wrecking the federal government. And they're doing it very quickly. It would take time to actually like, cut the government and make it more efficient and in reasonable ways. But that's, that's beside the point. If JD Vance has to say that at cpac, then it means that there are some people out there who are going, wait a minute, why aren't prices down? And I think we, by which I mean every, every person in America with, you know, know, two eyes to see and two ears to hear ought to be asking 15 times a day, why aren't prices lower? Why aren't prices lower? Because here's the secret.

[Harry Enten]

Prices can't go lower.

[jvl]

We don't get. Deflation is not a thing. If deflation hits, it's actually very bad for the macro economy and we will all be in much worse shape than we are now. And so maybe if voters are really going to be responsive to this and they're going to be stuck in that same mode that they were with Biden, it'd be great if we could use that as a club to drive Trump's popularity down.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And look, I think Trump's in a tough spot here in the sense that if the numbers are already starting to go down, because actually it's happening sooner than I thought it would like, I really did think there's gonna need to be, it was gonna take a while for the negative personal consequences of a lot of what they're doing to sink in. But, but if I had to guess from these numbers right now, it's actually a frustration with Trump's lack of focus on the economy that he's not talking about that, that he's not explaining to people, hey, here's what I'm gonna do to lower prices. And in fact, what they're having to say is, cuz I saw Elon Musk said this is like, nope, it's probably gonna get harder before it gets better. Okay? That is not a good message for people. They will not like that. And the more that his number one, the further he gets away from Joe Biden being president, the. The harder it gets to say, but this is Joe Biden's economy. We're just trying to fix it. Right. I mean, that's one piece of it. You would agree with that, right? That, like.

[jvl]

Yeah. Especially because he's not actually doing anything to fix it.

[Sarah Longwell]

Right.

[jvl]

Is the other thing. I mean, there is, again, I don't think there's anything to be. To be really fixed, but he's spending all of his time trying to sell out Ukraine. And so this is where I do think, you know, so where do things go south for Biden? They went south starting the summer of 2021, and it was. It was Afghanistan, which was coincidental with the first warning signs of inflation, which.

[Sarah Longwell]

And Delta. The Delta resurgence.

[jvl]

And the Delta resurgence. Right. If, again, I, I do not want to say, like, maybe Americans will care about Ukraine, because I think they probably won't. But if that's happening at the same time, it looks like Trump is spending all of his time taunting Volodymyr Zelensky and sucking up to Putin when people are pissed about the price of eggs. Maybe that's a one, two combination which can inflict some political pain on him and which people ought to try to use to inflict political pain on him.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And I don't know, you know, just thinking about Biden and that bad summer in 2021, he never really recovered from that.

[jvl]

Never.

[Sarah Longwell]

And I never recovered from it. Right. And so I wonder if we're starting to. I just. You see public opinion moving so much faster than it used to. And even if the economy stays the same, but certainly if it gets worse, Trump can do all the Doge stuff and all the deportations. I'm not sure that it will. And I guess this is the part where I want to be like, was I? Come on, man, Was I right? Was I right that people are genuinely feeling pain in this economy and that it ate up Biden and now it's going to eat up Trump?

[jvl]

Look, I never said you were wrong about that. What do you mean? I said that people believed things that weren't true, and they may still be believing things that aren't true.

[Sarah Longwell]

Maybe it's true. Maybe it's true.

[jvl]

The American economy, literally. Somebody posted this today. A April 2024 Wall Street Journal headline, American Economy the envy of the World. Like, it's. That's just the case. Like the American, you know, Everything is relative. We have the best economy in the world right now, and we still have incredibly low unemployment and good wage growth. And could it be better? Sure. But everything can always be better. There's. We live in a very, very tight economic system with very little slack in it. Most people who are anywhere from even the upper middle class down are sort of living paycheck to paycheck. Ish. And that's true on the good times and in the bad times. And that's why I just never, I was never willing to give people credence for, for saying, as they did all through the Biden presidency, things are worse now than they were in 2009 during the Great Recession, which, which is just fucking cockamamie. And. But at least, look, if they're going to be consistently wrong, and they'll be wrong during Trump, too, I'm in favor of it. I'll take that.

[Sarah Longwell]

You'll take that?

[jvl]

I'll take it. I'll take it. And this is where I would say this is a real. Sarah's right, is that this would be a sign that people didn't think they were voting for what Trump is doing.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think that is right. I think, and here's the thing that I know. Right, is that that is not true of all voters. Right. There's plenty of people in the sort of Trump voting coalition that are there for the deportations or there for Doge or because they like Musk or they like Trump just owning the libs and making people cry. But there's a whole other group of voters, and I think those are the ones you're seeing reflected in these numbers who are just like, which one of these guys do I think is going to do better to bring prices down for me or make my life more affordable? And Joe Biden's not doing it. So I'm going to take a flyer on the other guy. And a month in, they're going, this guy's not even talking about the economy and nothing's getting.

[jvl]

Not talking about it at all. Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah.

[jvl]

I mean, he's talking about, well, we're going to get rid of the FAA people after we've had all these plane crashes. And we're going, we're going to fire a bunch of veterans who work at the IRS and in the, you know, the AG Department. And we're going to. I'm going to send my people out to Saudi Arabia to meet with Vladimir Putin's people. I mean, this is not a guy who was focused on the things happening to average, everyday Americans.

[Sarah Longwell]

I think so. 100%. That's right. And I think, as we see, you know, there's not an election until 2026, but Trump is gonna look at two things, and you see Republicans, the reason they're so afraid of him, and I think one of the reasons the Democrats have been so paralyzed is that him winning the popular vote was a shock to people. And I think as. And so they're claiming some enormous, majestic king like mandate, when, of course, Donald Trump won by a number that was far less than Joe Biden won when he won in 2020, far less than.

[jvl]

Hillary Clinton's majority in 2016.

[Sarah Longwell]

But, look, he won the popular vote, but I think that if you start to see his approval ratings sink early, the only other metric he really cares about is the stock market. That's the only other thing he takes, is a relevant poll, his approval ratings in the stock market. So I think we should all take good news where we can get it. And I think his approval ratings going down this early as opposed to going up can start to send a signal to Republican lawmakers that this guy. Everything's not inevitable. They don't have to go along with everything. The mandate's not as big as they're acting like, I think, yeah, be nice.

[jvl]

We get these numbers in front of the Senate before they vote to confirm Cash Patel. But, you know, yeah, no, it is good news. I am cautiously optimistic. And if we're sitting here next week with another bunch of numbers that confirm or show the slide continuing, then that'll be really good news, and that will be something we can start to work with.

[Sarah Longwell]

All right, buddy, well, here's to good news, something we get so little of these days. Thanks for jumping on and talking about the poll numbers with me.

[jvl]

See you tomorrow on the secret podcast.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'll see you there, buddy.