Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode: Trump’s Polls Are Slipping—So Why Does He Feel More Dangerous Than Ever?
Date: January 18, 2026
Host: Bill Kristol
Guest: Andrew Egger (Bulwark, Morning Shots)

Episode Overview

Bill Kristol and Andrew Egger, both of The Bulwark and Morning Shots, break down the paradox at the heart of today’s political climate: Donald Trump’s presidency is more unpopular than ever, yet his authoritarian tendencies and policy aggressions are escalating, giving many a sense that his administration is becoming still more dangerous. They analyze the latest political polling, Trump’s controversial foreign policy maneuvers (with a focus on his Greenland obsession), rising authoritarianism and ICE deployment at home (especially “the Minneapolis ordeal”), and what these trends mean for the future—both for Trump’s chances at reelection and for American democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Trump’s Poll Numbers

• Polling Plateau:
  • Trump’s approval ratings have stabilized at a low plateau—high 30s to very low 40s in most polls.
  • “[Trump] is stable and really low… We've hit this kind of new plateau for him.” (Andrew Egger, 03:44)
• Electoral Implications:
  • Off-year elections and current polling suggest significant losses for Trump’s party in upcoming midterms.
  • If Trump’s approval slips to ~36–37%, “that is very rough for the incumbent party.” (Bill Kristol, 05:54)
• Economic Sentiment Drives Discontent:
  • Economic confidence is sluggish, with just 3/10 Americans saying the economy is good, and even fewer are optimistic about the future.
  • Notably, “20% of the country that was feeling pretty good about our economic prospects when Trump first came to power has since been disabused of that fact.” (Andrew Egger, 05:12)

2. Trump’s Evolving Political and Authoritarian Tactics

• Paradox of Popularity and Power:
  • Despite declining popularity, Trump’s “authoritarian project continues and even accelerates.” (Bill Kristol, 07:38)
  • The public is moving away from Trump, but his policy and anti-democratic maneuvers are intensifying.
• Does Trump Care About Popularity?
  • Open debate on whether Trump still thinks he can reverse public opinion, or if he’s moved on to “pushing everything as far as he can for the next three years.” (Bill Kristol, 07:38)
  • Uncertainty about Trump’s self-awareness: “How much is Trump, like, performing this, this sort of, like, oh, you know, relief is just around the corner thing, and how much does he actually think that that is true?” (Andrew Egger, 07:53)

3. Policy “Innovation”—and the Greenland Debacle

• Foreign Policy Adventurism:
  • Recent moves: Attempted acquisition of Greenland, aggressive ICE deployments in US cities, trade wars with allies.
• Greenland Policy Critique:
  • Trump’s obsession with acquiring Greenland is both a vanity project and an excuse for belligerence:
    • “We are pushing them [Europe, Canada] completely into the arms of China…” (Andrew Egger, 16:06)
    • Economic damage: trade pacts between Canada and China, and growing EU-China alignment.
    • Undermining US global leadership and the anti-China alliance painstakingly built during the Biden administration.
• Lack of Any Policy “Home Turf”:
  • Trump’s signature issues (tariffs, immigration, etc.) are deeply unpopular with the broader public—there’s “no issue to turn to…a safe space.” (Andrew Egger, 03:44)

4. Tariffs, the Economy, and Political Backlash

• Tariffs as a Liability:
  • The Supreme Court may or may not strike down the Trump tariffs. Regardless, “he’s made such a big deal about it that people are more willing to make him responsible for what they don’t like about the economy.” (Bill Kristol, 13:04)
  • Tariffs were once seen as a legitimate strategic move against China; now the administration is “helping” China by antagonizing allies.
    • “Not only are we not putting that kind of particular pressure on China, but we are helping them…just by pure clownishness and idiocy and short sightedness.” (Andrew Egger, 22:21)
• Vanity & Geopolitics:
  • The push for Greenland is not even mentioned in official security doctrine, highlighting its irrational, egotistical character.
    • “There’s no serious foreign policy rationale and national security rationale…It is vanity and whatever else it is.” (Bill Kristol, 24:50)

5. Authoritarianism at Home: The Minneapolis Ordeal

• ICE Deployment & Public Recoil:
  • The killing of Minneapolis activist Renee Good by ICE agents, and the broader militarization of law enforcement in the city, have produced shock and disgust across the country.
    • “The staggering polling in terms of like just the number of Americans who say they, they themselves have seen the video, like 75% of poll respondents… And they do not have the narrative at all.” (Andrew Egger, 32:26)
  • The MAGA base remains unmoved, but a growing “iron wall of opposition”—around 60%—is being erected by these excesses.
• No Normalization—Only Escalation:
  • “It doesn't seem like he gets satisfied and relaxes…if anything the authoritarianism self radicalizes in a sense or one step leads to another.” (Bill Kristol, 30:55)
  • Even engineered pretexts for ICE raids lose traction as the violence and extremism escalate.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the pattern of Trump’s presidency:
  • “It is real, like he’s the president.” (Andrew Egger, 29:25)
• On the supposed rationale for Greenland:
  • “We already have perfect access to Greenland because Greenland is in NATO, which is on our side. I would remind the president, we have our bases there. We can do what we want militarily up there.” (Andrew Egger, 16:06)
• On authoritarian escalation:
  • “[Trump’s] authoritarian project continues and even accelerates. And I suppose the question is, does Trump care at some point? How much does he care about the popularity?” (Bill Kristol, 07:38)
• On how to view sudden shifts in public opinion:
  • “We should allow ourselves to be actually taken by surprise if anything ever does crack…The first real moment to actually break his power is the midterms.” (Andrew Egger, 32:26)
• Bill Kristol on the state of the GOP and possible future scenarios:
  • “I’ve run into more quote regular people in the last week or two who are like geez, that’s bad. What is Trump doing? That’s just chaotic.” (Bill Kristol, 30:55)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:30 – Banter: The nature of Sunday Bulwark and “Morning Shots.”
• 03:39 – Discussion of recent CNN poll; Trump's dropping approval.
• 05:54 – The electoral dangers for Trump/GOP in the midterms.
• 07:38 – Trump’s popularity dropping as authoritarian behavior increases.
• 13:04 – Political significance of tariffs and effect on public opinion.
• 16:06 – Andrew’s rant: “Every week is something stupid”—the Greenland policy lambasted.
• 18:40 – Kristol: Europe is moving toward China due to US belligerence.
• 22:21 – “We are helping [China] by pure clownishness and idiocy.”
• 24:50 – Greenland not a real strategic concern; “It is vanity.”
• 26:37 – Trump’s incrementalist, domination-driven style—all appetite, all escalation.
• 30:55 – Trump’s authoritarian appetite “never seems satisfied.”
• 32:26 – Minneapolis: ICE, polling shock, “iron wall of opposition.”
• 36:13 – Even beyond midterms, Trump’s policy excesses offer little chance for reset.

Conclusion

Kristol and Egger deliver a sobering diagnosis: Despite cratering public approval, Trump’s administration continues to act with increasing recklessness and personalistic ambition, both abroad and at home. Key policy choices—especially the Greenland adventure and Minneapolis ICE deployment—are not only failing to deliver popular support but are also producing new levels of opposition and chaos. If there’s hope for resistance and renewal, it will be through steady democratic opposition and, perhaps, a reckoning at the ballot box during the midterms.