Bulwark Takes: Trump’s Polls Stink. Will SOTU Turn Them Around?
Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: February 24, 2026
Hosts: Andrew Egger (Bulwark White House Correspondent), Bill Kristol (Editor-at-Large)
Episode Overview
This episode of Bulwark Takes is a special "Morning Chasers" segment featuring Andrew Egger and Bill Kristol, focusing on the political climate President Trump faces ahead of his 2026 State of the Union address. The discussion breaks down Trump's rapidly eroding poll numbers, the impact of economic and immigration policies, the Supreme Court blow to Trump's tariffs, and the broader messaging challenges he faces. The hosts also preview what to expect from the president’s speech and analyze the public's mood heading into the midterms, with a closing look at the risk of escalating foreign conflicts, particularly with Iran.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Trump’s Sinking Approval and the Polls
[02:00–07:35]
- Trend: Trump’s approval ratings have sharply dropped over his second term. In March 2025, Trump sat at 49% approval, 48% disapproval (NYT average) — now at 41% approval, 56% disapproval.
- Deeper Dives:
- CNN Poll: Shows an even steeper drop: 48% to 36% approval in a year.
- G. Eliot Morris Poll: Similar numbers, around 37% approval, 59% disapproval.
- Independents Collapsing: Approval among political independents is down to 20% (some polls as low as 23%).
- Quote:
“That’s losing one in four of your supporters. That’s the most dramatic, I think, that poll shows the most dramatic loss of support by Trump.” — Bill Kristol [04:07]
Notable Insights:
- The erosion isn’t driven by a singular disaster (like war or recession), but a gradual bleeding of support as dissatisfaction builds.
- For a sitting president, such low support among independents is labeled “astonishing” and signals deep trouble for both the White House and GOP in upcoming midterms.
2. Generic Ballot and the Democrats’ Position
[07:35–09:58]
- Polling: For the first time in years, generic ballot has Democrats leading Republicans 52%-42%, the largest margin since tracking began.
- Interpretation:
- Even as Trump’s numbers have declined, Democrats are simply less disliked than Republicans.
- Trump has lost his ability to pivot to issues (like the economy or immigration) to compensate for negative coverage elsewhere.
Notable Quotes:
- Andrew Egger:
"You very rarely see [immigration] being an actual positive for Trump… at best it's a wash. So that's, you know, he's kind of running out of places where he can redirect away from a bad issue to a good issue…" [09:10]
3. Economic Woes & The Tariff Blow
[09:58–19:29]
- Supreme Court Decision: Trump’s signature IEPA (“Liberation Day”) tariffs were struck down; he’s scrambling to reassert economic strength with new broad tariffs, but this increases uncertainty.
- The Reality: While the economy isn’t catastrophic (growth slipped from 2.8% to 2.2%; inflation from 2.9% to 2.7%; stock market up modestly), voters remain disillusioned due to unmet expectations.
- Public Perception: Not only did Trump promise a dramatic economic turnaround post-Biden, but he hasn’t delivered the “golden age” he campaigned on.
Notable Quotes:
- Bill Kristol:
"It isn't great and people sort of had these expectations that… Trump is a successful business guy and all that stuff. But… this polling decline was before the Supreme Court decision, right? Almost entirely. And therefore people do not like tariffs." [12:22]
- Andrew Egger:
"There's a gap… between what he promised me and what I'm feeling has not closed. So my economic anxiety has not really gone away." [14:58]
Historical Comparison:
- Reagan’s early 80s struggles are cited: he acknowledged hard times, presented a clear plan, and bought time with voters.
- By contrast, Trump offers no grounded “theory of the case” — there’s no sense of what will get better or when.
4. Messaging Around SCOTUS and Blame Shifting
[19:29–20:45]
- Trump likely to blame the Supreme Court for economic setbacks in his SOTU instead of presenting a concrete plan.
- Caution: Voters fundamentally hold the president responsible for the state of the nation, not courts or other branches.
Notable Quote:
- Andrew Egger:
“The buck is going to stop at the President no matter what. You can't be the president up there in your State of the Union basically saying, don't blame me for the way things are, blame other people instead. That's just not going to fly...” [19:29]
5. Immigration Policy and the ‘Enforcement Pivot’
[22:45–27:09]
- White House Messaging: Attempting a slight “pivot” on immigration after over-the-top ICE and Border Patrol enforcement. Yet actions (high-profile operations and continued “jackbooted” enforcement) contradict softer rhetoric.
- Bill Kristol: Trump is “all in on mass deportation” and reluctant to make a meaningful change.
- Public increasingly distinguishes between being “tough on the border” and endorsing mass deportation/overreach.
- Polls show: Enforcement stances have cost him not just with independents, but even some core supporters.
- DHS Shutdown: Ongoing funding standoff highlights Trump’s unwillingness to accept even modest Democratic demands for accountability on ICE actions (e.g., proper identification, no masks, targeted arrests, body cams).
Memorable Moments:
- Kristol suggests:
“Democrats should really go to the State of the Union, honestly, I think they should just leave, let Trump... give his speech. But why should they sort of honor him by being there, so to speak, or even respect him by being there?... if he starts to praise ICE, they should walk out.” [24:23]
6. The DHS Shutdown and ICE Accountability Fight
[27:09–37:22]
- Legislative Battle: Democrats demand basic reforms (proper identification/badges, limits on where agents can operate, use-of-force reforms, investigating misconduct).
- Republicans and Trump resist, preferring a partial shutdown to conceding on ICE guardrails.
- Political Opportunity: Democrats see a strong message — “We’re willing to fund FEMA, TSA, and the rest of DHS; just not ICE without reform.”
- Broader Point: Public supports some immigration enforcement but is fed up with the spectacle and abuses of ICE policy.
Notable Quotes:
- Andrew Egger:
"It's where they're putting them. Like, you won't even vote for this. You would rather keep it shut down than even say that the masks are bad. And I mean, that is an incredibly potent political argument, again, to, like, 70% of the country..." [35:36]
- Bill Kristol:
"It's not just the images of the jackbooted thugs. It's also the stories about the person who's been here 20 years... And these people are suddenly disappearing. That wasn't sort of what they thought they were getting." [37:22]
7. Foreign Policy Uncertainties (Iran and Venezuela)
[38:43–43:26]
- War Drums with Iran: Escalating US military posture in the Gulf, with large deployments; Trump has not sought congressional authorization.
- Hosts’ Take: Critique Trump’s “bullying” approach and note how public opinion remains apathetic—or even opposed—to new military interventions, despite the administration’s perception that the successful Venezuela intervention would boost support.
- Comparison: Previous military authorizations (Bush with Iraq) vs. Trump’s unilateralism and risk of overreach.
Memorable Quotes:
- Bill Kristol:
"Can he really just not do anything now and leave the regime sort of complacently in power?... The public does not want it. I mean, the public... is not in favor of foreign interventions, period." [39:54]
- Andrew Egger (joking):
"There’s not a lot of popular things he can say that are in keeping with the agenda he has laid out so far. But we'll see which unpopular door he decides to open in the course of his 6 hour and 45 minutes State of the Union speech tonight." [38:43]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
Kristol on Trump's fading support:
“That's losing one in four of your supporters. That's the most dramatic loss of support by Trump.” [04:07]
-
Egger on independents:
“Approval among political independents is just 20% in our data... that's astonishing for the President.” [07:35]
-
Kristol on ICE:
“Unless he's really willing to pivot away from mass deportation, which he's not, I don't think... the more they've seen of ICE, the more they disapprove. And I think it would take a pretty... dramatic change. It can't just be that Bovino is reassigned somewhere...” [24:23]
-
Egger on economic expectations:
“There's a gap… between what he promised me and what I'm feeling has not closed. So my economic anxiety has not really gone away.” [14:58]
Important Timestamps
- 02:00–07:35: Trump’s plummeting approval – setting the scene
- 07:35–09:58: The Democratic generic ballot surge & independents abandoning Trump
- 09:58–19:29: Tariffs, Supreme Court blowback, and economic messaging deficits
- 19:29–20:45: SCOTUS blame-shifting and voters wanting accountability
- 22:45–27:09: Immigration pivot, ICE crackdowns, and mass deportation critiques
- 27:09–37:22: The DHS/ICE standoff and power struggle in the Senate
- 38:43–43:26: Looming conflict with Iran and the administration’s foreign policy dilemmas
- 43:26–44:30: Wrap-up and closing thoughts
Summary Wrap-Up
As Trump prepares for a pivotal State of the Union amid historic low approval ratings, the Bulwark’s Morning Shots team lays bare just how stark his political position is: significant support erosion even in the absence of acute crisis; an inability to pivot to positive issues; a public that’s grown weary of both economic turbulence and harsh immigration enforcement; and rising skepticism of a muscular, go-it-alone foreign policy. The path forward remains fraught, with both hosts agreeing that, barring a dramatic change in direction or message, Trump faces an uphill battle in both Congress and with the broader electorate.