Trump’s Senate Nightmare Is Starting Early

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode: Trump’s Senate Nightmare Is Starting Early
Host: The Bulwark
Date: May 6, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the political turmoil sparked by the Trump administration’s controversial “ballroom” project, including its $1 billion price tag (footed by taxpayers) and the legal, political, and ethical questions swirling around it. The hosts and guests discuss the damaging optics for the GOP, the Democrats’ unexpectedly strong Senate outlook, and how corruption charges—especially around “the Epstein class”—are being weaponized in key races. The conversation links these stories under a broader theme: a culture of corruption and the shifting election landscape.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trump “Ballroom” Controversy (02:42–08:55)

• Origin of Funding in the Reconciliation Bill

  • Sam Stein explains how a $1 billion expenditure for security for the new "ballroom" is tucked into a reconciliation bill, a maneuver allowing Republicans to sidestep a filibuster and secure funds on a party-line vote.
    • Quote:

      “It wasn't that Donald Trump went up there and said, hey, we're going to have this ballroom... By the way, the security components of the ballroom... you're going to have to cover from taxpayer funds. He never said that.” (03:32, Sam Stein)

  • The cost started at $200 million, ballooned to $1 billion.

• Democratic Strategy

  • Democrats can force a vote to strip this component from the bill, putting every GOP Senator on record as supporting or opposing the ballroom funding.
    • Quote:

      “Democrats will have the opportunity to say, hey, we're going to have an up and down vote on this $1 billion specifically. And that will put every Republican on the record.” (04:42, Sam Stein)

• White House Insularity, Vanity Projects

  • Trump is depicted as surrounded by sycophants and ignores dissent, leading to extravagant vanity projects with minimal public support.
    • Quote:

      “He's surrounded by people in the Cabinet who are largely sycophantic... policies that are really vanity projects. So the ballroom is the biggest personification of this, right?” (05:20, Sam Stein)

• Legal & Procedural Hurdles

  • The demolition of the East Wing for construction without full environmental review is affecting related projects. Judges are issuing injunctions to stop similar overreach elsewhere (e.g., Potomac Golf Course). The reconciliation bill’s passage could give post hoc legal cover to the ballroom project.
    • Quote:

      “They've demolished the East Wing, and it's just sort of like a big gaping hole... Now, with respect to the reconciliation bill, this is why this is somewhat important..." (07:33, Sam Stein)

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2. The 2026 Senate Map and Democratic Prospects (08:55–11:31)

• Swing in Senate Races

  • Six months prior, regaining the Senate seemed a “pipe dream”; now, Democratic prospects are much brighter due to strong fundraising and surprising competitiveness in states like Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa.
    • Quote:

      “If you look at the fundraising data, the candidates... are raising insane amounts of money from a huge influx of small dollar donors, which is a real indication of enthusiasm.” (09:20, Sam Stein)

• Risk Factors and Live Wire Candidates

  • Winning four seats remains a challenge, and even then, the party must contend with unpredictable members like John Fetterman.
    • Quote:

      “It's challenging. It's not impossible... you have to contend with the fact that John Fetterman is a Live Wire act continuously for the party.” (09:54, Sam Stein)

• Weaponizing Corruption, the “Epstein Class”

  • Democrats are framing the election around GOP corruption—a holistic narrative linking the Trump family’s enrichment, cronies, and the “Epstein class” label. This weaponization could motivate voters and frame the election as a referendum on systemic self-dealing.
    • Quote:

      “The contrast Democrats are really putting together... there's a corruption here happening, that the administration is covering things up, that they are enriching themselves... that's the Epstein class.” (10:19, Sam Stein)

• Balancing Message and Risk

  • There’s debate about whether Democrats should release a broad policy platform or keep the election focused on Trump’s alleged corruption—recalling past instances where platforms backfired.
    • Quote:

      “You want this election to be about Donald Trump. You want this election to be about whether the Epstein class... is in charge. And if you put out a platform like that, you do change the conversation.” (11:13, Sam Stein)

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3. Corruption as a Catalyst: Lessons from Abroad (11:32–12:23)

• Hungarian Election Parallels

  • Recent Hungarian elections saw record turnout not just due to economic issues but because opposition ran on anti-corruption. Dan Kennan notes how soon after, an investigation was opened into CPAC.
    • Quote:

      “One of the first things that they announced after the election was actually an investigation into CPAC in this country. So it is interesting how all those things are starting to connect.” (11:52, Dan Kennan)

• Closing Thoughts and Staff Banter

  • Light-hearted acknowledgment of Sarah Longwell’s contributions and internal staff dynamics, keeping the tone conversational and sharp.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:32 | Sam Stein | “It wasn't that Donald Trump went up there and said, hey, we're going to have this ballroom... He never said that.” | | 04:42 | Sam Stein | “Democrats will have the opportunity to say, hey, we're going to have an up and down vote on this $1 billion specifically. And that will put every Republican on the record.” | | 05:20 | Sam Stein | “He's surrounded by people in the Cabinet who are largely sycophantic... policies that are really vanity projects.” | | 07:33 | Sam Stein | “They've demolished the East Wing, and it's just sort of like a big gaping hole... Now... the reconciliation bill... is somewhat important." | | 09:20 | Sam Stein | “If you look at the fundraising data... huge influx of small dollar donors, which is a real indication of enthusiasm.” | | 10:19 | Sam Stein | “The contrast Democrats are really putting together... there's a corruption here happening, that the administration is covering things up... that's the Epstein class.” | | 11:52 | Dan Kennan | “One of the first things that they announced after the election was actually an investigation into CPAC in this country. So it is interesting how all those things are starting to connect.” |

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Key Segment Timestamps

• Ballroom Funding in Reconciliation Bill: 03:00–05:00
• Trump’s Isolation and Vanity Projects: 05:00–06:30
• Legal Status & DC Impact: 07:00–09:00
• Senate Map and Dem Prospects: 09:00–11:30
• Corruption and International Parallels: 11:30–12:20

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Takeaways

• Trump’s “ballroom” is spinning into a major liability for the GOP—with a billion-dollar taxpayer price tag and layered legal problems.
• Democrats, once seen as unlikely to recapture the Senate, are now riding an enthusiasm and fundraising wave, fueled in part by anti-corruption messaging.
• The “Epstein class” label is an effective, if risky, unifying charge as Dems seek to frame the 2026 election as a referendum on corruption and self-dealing.
• International examples (e.g., Hungary) underscore how anti-corruption themes can mobilize and reshape elections.
• The episode mixes sharp political insight with lively banter and accessible explanations—customary for The Bulwark team.

Transcript

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[Sam Stein]

Hey everyone, it's me, Sam, back with you. I was just on Ms. Now with Nicole Wallace. It was a great segment. We talked about a lot of stuff, of course had to touch on the ballroom and the craziness that's happening there. But we also had a bit of a deep dive on Sherrod Brown, his race for the Senate, and how he's kind of utilizing weaponizing this whole Epstein class attack against his opponent for getting a lot of donations from an Epstein associate. That was kind of interesting. We touched on how these two things are interrelated a little bit. Culture of corruption charges against Republicans. They're covering stuff up and they're enriching themselves and their wealthy donors. It was a really meaty conversation. Think you're going to enjoy it? Take a look at it, let me know what you think. And as always, subscribe to the Bulwark where you get great bulwark takes like this. And of course, if you're in the San Diego or LA area, come to our live shows May 20th May 21st. You can get tickets right now at the bulwark.com events. Thanks for listening. This ad is brought to you by Aura Frames. Aura Frames is a great upgrade from your typical Mother's Day flowers. Trust me, I know this. I got an aura frame from my mother in law last Mother Day. She loved it. That's because flowers, they're nice, but they only last a few days. The perfect gift is one that lasts a lifetime and that gift is AA Frames. Aura Frames are a great way to share all your favorite memories. From birthdays to vacations to kids sporting events and everything in between. There's free unlimited storage that allows you to add as many photos and videos as you want. My favorite part of OR Frames is how easy it is to preload photos before it ships. You can keep adding photos and videos from anywhere, anytime. It's really awesome and it's perfect for Mother's Day. A gift box is included. Every frame comes packaged in a premium gift box with no price tag. Name number one by Wirecutter. You can save on on gifts for your mom or your mother in law by visiting or frames.com for a limited time. Listeners can get $25 off their best selling carver Matte frame with code bulwark takes. That's a U R A frames.com promo code bulwark takes. Support the show by mentioning us at checkout. Terms and conditions do apply.

[Dan Kennan]

Donald Trump stiffing the American taxpayer amid widespread anger and fury over his failure to address their economic concerns is where we begin today with some of our favorite reporters and friends. Managing editor of the Bulwark and contributor Sam Stein is here. Also joining us, former Battleground states director for the Harris Walls campaign and Democratic strategist Dan Kennan is back. And with me at the table, Democratic strategist and Columbia University professor, political analyst Basil Smichle is here. Sam, how did this billion dollars end up in the bill in the first place?

[Sam Stein]

Well, so there is a reconciliation bill that congressional Republicans are pushing now. And for people who don't want to get too in the weeds, reconciliation bill is a budgetary matter that can pass just with a party line vote. So you can stuff any budgetary matter into it and you can pass it with 50 Republicans in the Senate. So it becomes a grab bag. Last night, the Senate Judiciary Republicans put forth their portion of that bill and included tens of billions of dollars for ICE or Customs and Border Patrol. And then tucked in there was this $1 billion expenditure, was put in a bunch of legalese terms, but basically it's for security for the ballroom. And to your point, this was never as advertised. It wasn't that Donald Trump went up there and said, hey, we're going to have this ballroom. It's going to be paid for. And oh, by the way, the security components of the ballroom that you're going to have to cover from taxpayer funds. He never said that. He said it was going to be fully paid for by private donations or money from his own POC market. Started at 200 million, went to 300 million, went to 400 million. At one point, Lindsey Graham, you might recall, introduced legislation that would have had Congress appropriate funds for about 400 million. Now it's $1 billion on top of whatever it costs to construct the ballroom itself. That will be paid for by taxpayer funds. I will just add one quick note. Part of the reconciliation process allows members of the opposing party to call votes to strip out the various components of the bill. And so Democrats will have the opportunity to say, hey, we're going to have an up and down vote on this $1 billion specifically. And that will put every Republican on the record as voting for or against funding the ballroom at a price tag of $1 billion.

[Dan Kennan]

Who's running the White House in terms of guarding against barreling 100 miles an hour toward that, for which 9% of the public support.

[Sam Stein]

Sam, that's a great question, and I was talking about this with some colleagues. I think what's happening here, and I have no, like, insight reporting on it, but I think what's happening here is that Donald Trump, especially in the second term, is not getting any conflicting information into his ecosystem. He's surrounded by people in the Cabinet who are largely sycophantic. You see it all the time when they have these Cabinet meetings and they praise him as if he's the second coming. He probably watches only news media that affirms his priors, and when he does, he'll lash out on Truth Social. So you see it every now and then when he posts something going after a random cable commentator. But by and large, I think he just gets people who tell him how great he is, and then that kind of supplements into him pursuing policies that are really vanity projects. So the ballroom is the biggest personification this, right? $1 billion. He thinks, whatever. It's great. We'll have events here. We don't have to do the White House correspondence dinner at the Washington Hilton, but it's also the Reflecting pool and the golf courses at East Potomac in this arch. And it raises the question, why is he doing all of this? Right? Is it vanity? Probably a lot of it is. But what is the point of building all this type of stuff if you're just going to end up leaving Washington, D.C. is it a legacy matter, or is it something larger than that that we're not really accurately describing?

[Dan Kennan]

I mean, I guess what I would push back and say, Dan, is that every time the press tries to figure out what sophisticated, secret version of 3D chess Trump is playing, he's just doing some dumb shit on his phone. Sam, what is the legal status? Like, do they have, you know, anyone that's renovated in their own home? Like, do they have all the deliveries from Home Depot or wherever the stuff's coming from? Like, are they ready to build and just waiting for the taxpayers to put the bill? Like, where what is standing where the east, the regal east wing once was?

[Sam Stein]

Well, first of all, I'd be remiss not to say that Sarah Longwell, wow, what insight, what brilliance, incredible stuff. You should have her on all the time. An amazing colleague. Secondly, I will say, in terms of the legal status, there's been challenges to this because they did not follow proper procedure. You're supposed to get clearance for this environmental Reviews. Congress is supposed to have some appropriations of funds and I'll get back to in a second. As things stand now, they've demolished the East Wing, and it's just sort of like a big gaping hole. And this has affected a lot of different projects around D.C. so I mentioned the East Potomac Golf renovation. There was a report over the weekend that they were just going to go ahead and renovate the courses. And the National Links, which is fighting them, which has control of the courses, now went to court to get an injunction to say, you cannot do this. And the judge in that case specifically reference what is happening in the East Wing to basically say, you can't touch anything more than 10 trees. The judge said, you can't do what you did in the bottom, which is, you know, bulldoze everything and then decide, oh, we'll wait for the actual court hearing after the fact. So this has affected how judges are thinking about this stuff around the city. Now, with respect to the, to the reconciliation bill, this is why this is somewhat important, which is because Congress, through this reconciliation bill, has decided that is going to appropriate $1 billion for some portion of the ballroom, whether it's security or otherwise. The White House is now pointing to that and saying, look, we're getting congressional authorization for the construction. Congress is going to sign off on this thing. So there is a legal component that matters to this reconciliation bill with respect to how they go forward with the bottom construction.

[Dan Kennan]

It's amazing. At a time when 15% of Americans think the economy is getting better, the Republicans are marching in lockstep with something that has 9% support from the public. It's remarkable. Sam, what is your latest reporting on how the Senate is looking for Democrats?

[Sam Stein]

Oh, much better. My colleague Lauren Egan has been talking to strategists nonstop about this. I mean, six months ago, it was sort of a pipe dream that they could win the seats needed to get there. But increasingly, the operatives in the party are emboldened by what they see, not just in the polling data, but if you look at the fundraising data, the candidates who are on the ballot, Senate candidates, are raising insane amounts of money from a huge influx of small dollar donors, which is a real indication of enthusiasm. Right. And it's in states that, you know, maybe would have seemed unlikely not so long ago. Ohio is one of them, obviously.

[Dan Kennan]

Texas has increasingly.

[Sam Stein]

Alaska.

[Dan Kennan]

Iowa.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, Iowa. And so, look, they have to win four seats. It's challenging. It's not impossible. And even with four, you have to contend with the fact that John Fetterman is a Live Wire act continuously for the party. But it's not, it's not impossible at this point in time. And in fact, the betting markets seem to treat it as a likelihood at this juncture. Let me just add one thing about the Epstein clause, because I do think this relates not just to this conversation about the Senate, but also to a prior conversation about the ballroom, which is that the contrast Democrats are really putting together, which I think is effective, is not just that it's, you know, up or down, it's that there's a corruption here happening, that the administration is covering things up, that they are enriching themselves, that the Trump family is getting rich through all these ventures, these crypto schemes and these contracts. And the only one that's really benefiting from this presidency are the family members and the family members, the cabinet members. And that's the Epstein class. And that's why this whole holistic charge works. As to Basil's point. Yeah, I mean, it would be beneficial probably for Democrats to put together some sort of policy platform that could take their congressional approval higher and make voters more excited about the prospects of them taking over. But it does come with a real risk and I think it's important to talk about that, which is you want this election to be about Donald Trump. You want this election to be about whether the Epstein class, quote, unquote, is in charge. And if you put out a platform like that, you do change the conversation. Doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. But we all can remember when Rick Scott, for instance, did this in the last midterm cycle, it gave Democrats a lot of fodder to go on and say, hey, they're going to try to cut your Social Security. So there are real risks.

[Dan Kennan]

It's so interesting that you mentioned corruption. I mean, I think one of the things that gets lost from the surprise, the turnout results of the Orban race, is that yes, he was talking about economic issues and yes, they participated at 71%. It was too big to deny, but they also ran against his corruption. And one of the first things that they announced after the election was actually an investigation into CPAC in this country. So how Hungarian taxpayers money ended up in the coffers of cpac. So it is interesting how all those things are starting to connect. Samstein, we should also point out that your glowing comments about Sarah Longwell, I agree with them, but she also happens to be your boss, so I'll make sure she saw those. Dan Kennan, it's great to have you back, Basil. It's always great to start off with you. Thank you all so much.

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