Trump's Tariffs Are Crushing His Voters

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes – "Trump's Tariffs Are Crushing His Voters"

Release Date: May 2, 2025
Host: The Bulwark Team (Featuring Sarah Longwell and Unnamed Political Analyst)
Episode Title: Trump's Tariffs Are Crushing His Voters

---

Introduction

In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Sarah Longwell delves deep into the repercussions of former President Donald Trump's tariff policies and their impact on his voter base. Joined by an unnamed political analyst, the discussion navigates through the economic strain caused by tariffs, the shifting political landscape, and the broader implications for America's political and social institutions.

---

Tariffs and Their Impact on Voters

Sarah Longwell opens the conversation by highlighting the immediate effects of Trump's tariff policies on his voters, particularly focusing on the working-class demographic. She states:

"Many of his voters are sitting there saying, I don't know, my guy's saying, this is going to work. So I'm going to wait and see and hope that it works." ([00:48])

Longwell explains that Trump's association with the economy has historically been his strength, but the current economic downturn is eroding his approval ratings. Voters who initially supported Trump in hopes of lower prices are now experiencing the opposite due to imposed tariffs. This demographic, often comprising low to middle-income individuals, finds even minor price increases significantly affect their daily lives.

Key Points:

• Tariffs have led to higher prices, directly affecting Trump's core working-class voters.
• Voters' initial optimism about economic improvements under Trump's policies is fading.
• The economic strain is causing dissatisfaction among voters who feel let down by the administration's handling.

---

Business Community and Small Business Owners

The discussion then shifts to the effects of tariffs on small business owners, an essential segment of the economy and a pivotal factor in the political landscape.

Unnamed Political Analyst emphasizes:

"Small business owners are an incredibly important, not just part of the economy, but part of the political landscape." ([02:48])

Longwell elaborates on the diverse reasons why Trump supporters back tariffs, ranging from debt reduction to safeguarding American jobs and revitalizing manufacturing. However, she points out the skepticism surrounding the effectiveness of tariffs in achieving these goals:

"You will not accomplish all of those things. I think most people are skeptical you can do any of those things with tariffs." ([03:13])

Key Points:

• Tariffs were initially seen as a tool to boost American industries and reduce national debt.
• Business owners anticipated benefits from deregulation and tax cuts, but tariffs have instead strained their operations.
• The chaotic and mixed messaging from the administration has led to confusion and disappointment among supporters in the business community.

---

National Security and Institutional Competence

The conversation delves into the broader implications of Trump's administration on national security and the rule of law. Longwell expresses concern over the perceived incompetence and chaotic governance style, which is undermining public trust.

"You take the national security sort of just clownishness, and then on top of that, you have them deporting people who are clearly American citizens... that's where you get the total sense that no one has their hands on the wheel." ([05:00])

She highlights incidents that reflect poorly on the administration's competence, such as the mishandling of classified information and wrongful deportations, which exacerbate the economic frustrations of voters.

Key Points:

• Administrative incompetence is eroding confidence in national security and governance.
• High-profile mistakes, including security breaches and wrongful deportations, contribute to public mistrust.
• The combination of economic strain and governmental mismanagement is leading to a loss of support among voters.

---

Leadership Void and Civil Society Response

The episode underscores the lack of prominent leaders and institutions standing up against the administration's questionable actions. Longwell laments the silence from critical figures in national security and other key sectors.

"I'm watching the entire civil society... they are knuckling under." ([09:05])

Despite the chaos, there's a notable absence of vocal opposition from influential figures like former generals or former FBI directors, which Longwell finds troubling. She contrasts the current situation with pre-pandemic times when Trump had more robust support from established Republican figures.

Key Points:

• Critical leaders and institutions are not actively opposing the administration's actions.
• The Republican Party has seen a significant shift, with traditional guardrails and influential figures distancing themselves.
• The lack of resistance from civil society institutions contributes to the perception of unchecked chaos within the administration.

---

Conclusion: The Erosion of Trump's Support Base

As the episode draws to a close, both Longwell and the political analyst reflect on the diminishing support for Trump among his core voters. The combined pressures of economic hardship, administrative incompetence, and the absence of institutional pushback are leading to a potential decline in Trump's political influence.

Longwell encapsulates the sentiment by observing:

"They are going to find themselves the most damaged by this and maybe the most regretful of their choices." ([03:13])

Final Takeaways:

• Trump's tariff policies are backfiring, causing more harm than anticipated to his primary supporters.
• Economic dissatisfaction, coupled with governmental mismanagement, is weakening Trump's position.
• The political landscape is shifting, with traditional supporters feeling betrayed and contemplating their allegiance.

---

Notable Quotes

• Sarah Longwell ([00:48]): "Voters associate him with the tariffs. Many of his voters are sitting there saying, I don't know, my guy's saying, this is going to work."
• Unnamed Political Analyst ([02:48]): "Small business owners are an incredibly important, not just part of the economy, but part of the political landscape."
• Sarah Longwell ([03:13]): "We don't really know why they're doing it. And as a result, like, it can't be all of those things."
• Sarah Longwell ([05:00]): "Any one of those Americans might tolerate if the economy was okay. But if the economy is not okay and you have those things, that's where you get the total sense that no one has their hands on the wheel."

---

This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a comprehensive analysis of how Trump's tariff policies are adversely affecting his supporters, particularly among the working class and small business owners. The discussion highlights the intertwined issues of economic strain, administrative incompetence, and the diminishing role of civil society institutions in holding the administration accountable, painting a bleak picture of the current political climate.

Transcript

[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, everyone, Sarah Longwell here, publisher of the Bulwark. Don't forget to subscribe to our channel here. But I was just on a call. We were talking about both the economy, the incoming tariffs, the shortage that people, people are already talking about, like, you know, people who own stores. And then we also got into the mike walls almost firing, but then actually just shuffling over to the United nations, we got into both those things. It was a good conversation. Hope you enjoy it.

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

Sarah Longwell, the politics for any human being would be catastrophic. The politics for someone who ran for president saying that the price of everything will, quote, go down on day one. I'm talking about the grocery standing in front of melting meat. Should be lights out. Where are the worst the political sort of pendulum swinging on Trump?

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I mean, look, you're already seeing the impact of his numbers going down and not just in his overall approval rating, but his approval on his handling of the economy, which has always been greatest strength. But one of the things I want to point out, I really have two points from listening to voters. One is they definitely think that this is Trump's economy. His thing yesterday by trying to say, oh, this is Joe Biden's stock market. No way. Voters associate him with the tariffs. Many of his voters are sitting there saying, I don't know, my guy's saying, this is going to work. So I'm going to wait and see and hope that it works. But a lot of those same Trump voters, right? And this is the second point that I want to make. Many people in the Trump coalition are working class and more low income voters. There has been this political realignment that Donald Trump has really supercharged where the Republican Party is now much more the party of working class voters. Those are the people who are going to be hit by the higher prices. These aren't people who had 30 dolls to begin with. These are people for whom that $1 was very special and now that doll is going to be out of reach in terms of price. And so it is his voters in many ways who are going to be the most negatively impacted people at the upper end of the income scale, they can say, okay, well, maybe I scale back on a vacation or something. But for people who are saying, I already can only do so much for my kids at Christmas and now because of Donald Trump's tariffs, I can't afford much of anything. I mean, I hear voters talk like this in focus groups all the time where they said, look, the reason I voted for Donald Trump is because I wanted to lower prices. And already now they are complaining about the fact that he doesn't seem to be focused on the economy, that he's not doing anything to bring down prices. And they feel that because, you know, $10 here and there makes a big difference in their lives. And so those are the people that are going to be hurt. And I think that's where you're going to start to see some of Trump's floor potentially fall out.

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

I mean, small business owners are an incredibly important, not just part of the economy, but part of the political landscape. Both sides fight over them ferociously. And, I mean, this anecdote has to be playing out all over the country. Sarah, what are you hearing from that part of his support that saw, that wanted to emulate some, something that he was selling as, as, as he played a successful businessperson.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, you know, part of what's been interesting to me to listen to people who really support the tariffs, who are trying to give him and say, no, no, no, like we should do this, is they have a bunch of different reasons why they are with him on the tariffs. They either say, well, look, we have to do something about the debt, so we're going to pay the debt down, or we need to reassure American jobs, we need to bring back manufacturing, or, you know, or it's a negotiating tactic. And you hear all these different things, which, of course, mirrors the chaotic messaging coming from this administration. Right. We don't really know why they're doing it. And as a result, like, it can't be all of those things. You will not accomplish all of those things. I think most people are skeptical you can do any of those things with tariffs. And so I think that for a lot of these voters, especially for the business community that really counted on Trump coming in, cutting regulations, cutting taxes, who thought he would be good for them, and were, unfortunately, I think, willing to put aside the sort of threat to democracy that he posed in favor of what they thought were going to be positive business, you know, moves from Donald Trump, I think they are going to find themselves the most damaged by this and maybe the most regretful of their choices.

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

To the degree that the attacks against the FBI and the rule of law and the national security sort of institutions has been an ongoing story for nine years. I'm always wondering if the fact that 66% of Americans now believe that the Trump administration is too chaotic, if these stories are going to land differently now, what in sort of the vein of too much chaos, too much upheaval, too much, too fast, this isn't what we voted for. Are you picking up from voters?

[Sarah Longwell]

Look, really, the first segment is what you're picking up from voters, right? People feel the economic strain right away, and that's a personal consequence. They had that personally. But then when you layer on top of that, not just one, but many stories of wild incompetence, Right? So the incompetence of putting a reporter on a signal chain. But it wasn't just. I mean, the idea that Walls was the only person that needed to be held accountable. When I saw that story, I thought the same thing you did. This is Laura Loomer having influence. They don't like Wallace because he's a neocon, because Hegseth should also go. I mean, this guy was sharing absolute classified information on these, you know, secure in a commercial sense, but not in a national security sense channel. So there was nowhere like this is not how people should be behaving. And so you take the national security sort of just clownishness, and then on top of that, you have them deporting people who are clearly American citizens, wrongly deporting them, then refusing to get them back, then refusing to listen to the Supreme Court. I mean, when you layer that on competence, any one of those Americans might tolerate if the economy was okay. But if the economy is not okay and you have those things, that's where you get the total sense that no one has their hands on the wheel.

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

I mean, it made me think of the conversations we had about the role of the. Of the generals just saying that something is not okay. These people, people don't always vote. People don't often vote on national security because they don't want to worry about it. And I think that when politicians try to make it front and center, it usually doesn't work because it's one of those functions of government where you may weigh in on a. On a philosophy. For years. I'm old enough to remember when Republicans ran on being strong on defense. Not the case anymore. But. But the idea that it so chaotic that people are talking about and it seeped into culture, this massive, massive security breach of military plans being sent into group chat. I feel like that could color all of these other lapses. And I wonder. I see signs all the time where people handwritten posters, which I feel like are the best window into what people really care about most to write on their poster before they go out on a weekend to protest that, say, due process. I mean, some of this stuff that people spent years, you know, trying to sort of drive home, it has really landed and resonated in a Different way this time, Sarah?

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, I just think this time is so different in part because at least in 2019, you know, pre pandemic, Trump had a hot economy and that. And also he was surrounded at the time by serious people. Right. By a lot of the sort of Republican firmament that put up guardrails around him, doesn't have any of those guardrails this time. I mean, all of the people he is surrounded by. I mean, there's a recent. Marco Rubio has, like, 10 jobs now. It's because he's one of the only competent people in the entire administration. And so maybe he'll just run the whole thing by the end of it. Congrats, Marco. I hope this is what you were hoping for when you went out all in for Donald Trump. But, you know, just really quickly on the generals, please. This does seem like a moment where you would think that people who really do care about our national security, people for whom it has been their vocation, the thing that they devoted their lives to, their study to, that they would be out here, this moment, decrying what is going on. I mean, if you care about it, like, who?

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

Name names, name names.

[Sarah Longwell]

Mattis, Millie, anybody. Where is it? I mean, there are. But. But anybody who's been. I would take former FBI directors. I don't know what happened to Chris Wray. I don't. To the guy who was running do Merrick Garland. Where is everybody?

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

To your point, the worst has come to pass. He's running like an autocrat. He's being blocked when he does things that are illegal by the judges. But it's not the role of the courts to be the only people standing up and saying, this is wrong. This is un American. Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, look, I'm watching the entire civil society, all of our civil society, our media companies, our universities, our law firms, they are knuckling under. They all look like the Republican Party in 2018, just slowly capitulating. And it'd be nice if some people started to speak up, because it really has gotten to the point where that's necessary.

[Unnamed Political Analyst]

From your lips, my friend. Sarah Longwell. Thank you.