Bulwark Takes: Trump’s Third Term Plan is Impossible…Right?
Release Date: March 31, 2025
In this episode of Bulwark Takes, hosted by Sam Stein, the Bulwark's Legal Editor, James Ramoser, delves into a provocative and timely topic: the possibility of former President Donald Trump pursuing a third term despite constitutional barriers. Drawing from Ramoser's insightful article, "How Trump Could Snatch a Third Term Despite the 22nd Amendment: Four Ways Trump Could Stay in Power Beyond 2028," the discussion navigates through legal interpretations, potential loopholes, and the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding.
1. Trump’s Third Term Comments
The episode kicks off with a discussion about recent statements made by Donald Trump regarding a potential third term. Ramoser emphasizes the importance of taking these remarks seriously, moving beyond dismissing them as mere rhetoric.
Sam Stein [01:35]: "Donald Trump has been joking about a third term, but his recent comments suggest he might be serious."
James Ramoser [04:50]: "I decided to take him both seriously and literally ... he is thinking about it."
Trump’s comments on programs like “Meet the Press” have added fuel to the speculation, with him suggesting unconventional methods to remain in power.
2. Constitutional Constraints: The 22nd Amendment
A core part of the discussion centers around the 22nd Amendment, which explicitly limits U.S. Presidents to two elected terms.
James Ramoser [05:03]: "The 22nd Amendment uses the term 'elected' and it says you cannot be elected to more than two terms."
Ramoser clarifies that the amendment does not specify consecutive terms, meaning that even non-consecutive terms are restricted.
James Ramoser [05:37]: "The 22nd Amendment doesn't apply only to consecutive terms. It simply states you can't be elected to two terms, period."
This strict interpretation presents a formidable barrier to any attempts at a third term through traditional electoral means.
3. Loopholes to a Third Term
Despite the clear language of the 22nd Amendment, Ramoser explores potential strategies that could be employed to circumvent this constitutional barrier.
a. Vice Presidential Coup
One proposed method involves Trump running as a Vice Presidential candidate alongside another Republican, such as Vice President J.D. Vance.
James Ramoser [06:25]: "The idea would be that Vance or some other running mate would run at the top of the ticket and Trump would run as the VP candidate. If elected, the top candidate could resign, allowing Trump to ascend to the presidency."
This strategy hinges on the interpretation that Trump would not be "elected" President directly, thus sidestepping the 22nd Amendment's restrictions.
b. Speaker of the House Strategy
Another more complex approach, referred to as the “Stein Loophole,” involves elevating Trump to the Speaker of the House position.
Sam Stein [10:37]: "Make Trump the Speaker of the House... circumvent the 12th and the 20th and 22nd Amendments."
This method would require substantial cooperation within the Republican Party and is considered highly speculative due to its logistical challenges.
c. Legal Interpretations and the Supreme Court
Ramoser discusses the role of the Supreme Court in potentially validating these loopholes.
James Ramoser [07:21]: "The Supreme Court, being highly textualist, might uphold such arrangements if they strictly adhere to the letter of the law, despite violating its spirit."
The uncertainty surrounding future Supreme Court decisions adds another layer of complexity to the feasibility of these strategies.
4. Assessment of Likelihood
When asked to rate the seriousness of Trump's intentions on a scale from bluff (1) to certainty (10), Ramoser offers a measured perspective.
James Ramoser [14:00]: "I'm gonna go like right now, I think it's Maybe like PI 3.14, roughly."
While not highly probable, Ramoser notes that the mere consideration of such strategies indicates Trump’s interest in exploring avenues to extend his influence.
James Ramoser [15:05]: "The fact that he was even aware of this like a highly technical sort of nerdy loophole."
5. Constitutional and Political Implications
The conversation touches upon the challenges of amending the Constitution to prevent such scenarios, highlighting the political improbability of achieving the required supermajorities for ratification.
James Ramoser [11:36]: "Changing the Constitution would take super majorities in both chambers of Congress and in a supermajority of the states... not politically feasible."
Ramoser underscores the importance of addressing these loopholes through clear constitutional language to safeguard democratic processes.
6. Conclusion and Forward Look
The episode concludes with Sam Stein urging listeners to read James Ramoser's comprehensive article for an in-depth exploration of the topic.
Sam Stein [15:38]: "I encourage people to go and read the piece. It is titled, in case you're looking for it: 'How Trump could snatch a third term despite the 22nd Amendment. Four ways Trump could stay in power beyond 2028.'"
Ramoser’s analysis serves as a crucial examination of the potential constitutional and political maneuvers that could challenge the established two-term limit for U.S. Presidents.
This episode of Bulwark Takes provides a thorough and engaging analysis of a hypothetically alarming scenario, blending legal expertise with current political developments. For those seeking to understand the intricacies of presidential term limits and the possible strategies to navigate them, this discussion offers valuable insights and foresight.