Bulwark Takes – “Trump’s WORST Jobs Report Yet, Stagflation Incoming?”

Date: September 5, 2025
Hosts: Tim Miller (A), Jonathan V. Last (JVL, B)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the latest dismal jobs report under President Trump’s administration, analyzing the economic and political causes, the deeper trends behind the numbers, and the implications for both Main Street America and the broader economic outlook. Tim Miller is joined by Jonathan V. Last (JVL), author of the Triad newsletter, to break down the data, discuss the administration's policy direction, and forecast the risks of stagflation and institutional breakdown.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Disastrous Jobs Report: A Sign of Deeper Troubles

• Headline Numbers: Only 22,000 new jobs created last month; significant downward revisions to previous reports, with June showing net job losses and a net 23,000 jobs lost across June and July.

  “So at the biggest picture, we’re looking at a pretty stagnant economy.” — Tim, [01:35]

• Sector Breakdown: Healthcare is the only major growing sector (+31,000), meaning most sectors are losing jobs; manufacturing especially hard hit (-78,000).
• Quits Rate as a Sentiment Indicator: Normally, a high quits rate suggests worker confidence in finding new employment. Now, the number is stagnant, reflecting anxiety and unease among workers.

  “When the quit rate is high, that means you’re saying quit… That has been stagnant for three or four months now.” — JVL, [04:13]

2. Underlying Economic Trends & Policy Moves

• Tariffs and Self-Inflicted Recession: Trump’s promised wide-scale tariffs are blamed for worsening manufacturing and exporting conditions, notably for farmers and machinery companies like John Deere.

  “How could anyone possibly have known that it would end this way?” — JVL, [05:17]

• Federal Workforce Cuts & Consumer Impact: Mass layoffs of federal workers (with severance running out soon) and expulsion of undocumented migrants reduce consumer spending and depress tourism, further hurting fragile job growth.

  “I don’t know if you’re aware of this, but the migrants that are in the country that we’re expelling, they also are consumers.” — Tim, [06:04]

3. Comparison to Pre-Trump Economic Boom

• Recent Economic Strength: The U.S. economy from 2021-2024 was extremely strong:

  “The American economy from 2021 to the end of 2024 was unbelievably good. The unemployment rate was at or below 4% for something like 37 straight months.” — JVL, [06:32]

• Visuals & Trends: Tim describes a chart showing robust hiring under Biden and a dramatic falloff under Trump, humorously likening the Trump-era bars to “wee little… penises.”

  “And then the Trump ones… those bars are wee little, kind of like little penises." — Tim, [07:45]

4. Can Trump Target the Pain?

• Selective Economic Pain: Discussion on whether Trump can “shield” his political base and direct the worst of economic consequences toward opponents—an idea found mostly impractical on a large economic scale despite attempts in areas like immigration enforcement.

  “You push in the economy over here and something pops out over there… the world is too big, it’s too interconnected.” — JVL, [09:06]

• Unintended Consequences: Raids affecting even loyal supporters/donors show the limitations of such targeted strategies.

5. Stagflation Fears and the Federal Reserve

• Central Bank Independence in Jeopardy: Trump’s desire to replace Fed personnel and push interest rates aggressively lower threatens economic and institutional stability.

  “Why not put his own people into the Fed and have the Fed become just another arm of his?” — JVL, [11:43]

• Risk of Stagflation: With inflationary pressures lurking and growth stagnant, the hosts warn about the rare but destructive threat of stagflation—rising prices amid economic stagnation.

  “What we really have is stagflation. That's what’s happening. Good on you, Donald Trump, for creating stagflation. That's kind of hard to do.” — JVL, [11:31]

• Global Consequences: If independence of the Fed is lost, long-term dangers like the U.S. dollar losing reserve status loom.

  “Maybe the dollar isn’t the world’s reserve currency anymore 10 years from now… That’s like another four alarms throw on the fire.” — JVL, [12:54]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the New Acting Head of BLS:
  “You definitely want a shitposter in charge of something like labor statistics. There are roles for shitposters. Podcast host, maybe, for example. Commissioner of labor statistics? Not as much.” — Tim, [01:00]
• On Health Care and Job Growth:
  “I guess we have some good news though… if I go by what I heard at the RFK hearing yesterday, we’re gonna have a lot more sick people in America, and so that’s going to increase demand for healthcare services.” — JVL, [02:24]
• On the Shocking Policy Shifts:
  “This makes our friend Sarah very, very angry with me. But the American economy from 2021 to the end of 2024 was unbelievably good… Everything was really, really good.” — JVL, [06:32]
• On the Farmers’ Plight:
  “The farmer bailout in Trump’s first term was bigger than the one year operating cost of the Department of State.” — Tim, [08:30]
• Catastrophizing, JVL-style:
  “Not everywhere can you get that update and then add on top of that some catastrophizing about how that terrible one month report might lead to America speed running the Argentina currency collapse. And that’s what you come to JVL for.” — Tim, [13:27]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00-01:35] — Introduction, BLS leadership and the new jobs report
• [01:54-03:53] — Breakdown of job numbers, sector analysis, healthcare and prison growth dark “opportunities”
• [03:53-05:18] — Deep dive: Quit rates, consumer confidence, early recession signals, and policies’ role in the malaise
• [05:18-07:26] — Policy context: Tariffs, federal workforce cuts, consumer base loss, comparison to earlier economic conditions
• [07:26-08:52] — Visual evidence, sectoral pain (agriculture, manufacturers), questions about targeted bailouts/relief
• [08:52-10:40] — Can Trump shield his base and punish enemies? Why the economy isn’t so easily manipulated
• [10:40-12:33] — The Fed’s future, interest rate cuts, stagflation, risk of institutional collapse
• [12:33-13:42] — What comes next: institutional risks, currency stability, JVL’s signature doomcasting

Tone and Takeaway

This conversation blends deep policy wonkery, biting critique, and gallows humor. The hosts mix precise economic analysis with sarcasm and bleak “looking over the horizon” speculation, warning that the confluence of intentional policy choices and institutional degradation could bring not only short-term pain but also long-term systemic risks for the U.S. economy and global order.

Final Call:

“That’s Jonathan V. Last. Sign up for that newsletter. Subscribe to this feed. Tell your friends. We’ll see you all soon.” — Tim, [13:42]

For listeners who missed the episode: expect a sharply critical, sometimes darkly comedic rundown of why the Trump-era job numbers look so bleak, how policy choices triggered them, and why the path ahead could get even bumpier.