Tucker, Don Jr. or Vance?! Who Will Take The GOP Throne From Trump?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes Episode: Tucker, Don Jr. or Vance?! Who Will Take The GOP Throne From Trump? Release Date: June 4, 2025

Bulwark Takes delivers incisive political analysis, and in this episode, hosts JVL and Chris Cillizza delve into the future of the Republican Party post-Donald Trump. They explore the potential of key figures—Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., and J.D. Vance—to ascend to the GOP leadership mantle. This comprehensive discussion provides listeners with a nuanced understanding of the internal dynamics shaping the party's trajectory.

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1. Introduction to GOP Leadership Dynamics

The episode begins with JVL setting the stage for an in-depth conversation about the 2028 Republican nomination landscape. He highlights the predominant belief that Donald Trump will likely seek another presidential run but emphasizes a crucial overlooked aspect: J.D. Vance must navigate a challenging path over Don Jr. to secure the nomination.

Notable Quote:

JVL [00:30]: "The most interesting part of this conversation is something that I think a lot of people are overlooking which is that in order for J.D. Vance to get the brass ring, he’s gonna have to climb over Don Jr."

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2. J.D. Vance: The Honky Tonk Man Analogy

Chris Cillizza introduces Jonathan's insightful piece comparing J.D. Vance to the Honky Tonk Man, a wrestler who failed to resonate with audiences despite being heavily promoted. They dissect this analogy to assess Vance's potential as a GOP leader.

Key Points:

• Promotion vs. Popularity: Despite significant backing from influential figures, Vance struggles to garner genuine support from the grassroots.
• Base Support: Vance's appeal is limited mostly to intellectual and niche conservative groups rather than the broader MAGA base.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [07:40]: "The short of this is that JD Vance is the Honky Tonk Man. And you look at this guy and he is never been very good on his own."

Chris Cillizza [08:15]: "Vance has some real fans. Those people are like Rod Dreher and the editors of First Things."

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3. Donald Trump Jr.: Dynastic Ambitions and Influence

The conversation shifts to Donald Trump Jr., examining his potential candidacy and his strategic positioning within the party. JVL expresses skepticism about Don Jr.'s ability to secure the nomination independently of his father's influence.

Key Points:

• Dynastic Politics: Don Jr. is portrayed as a potential dynastic successor, heavily reliant on his father's legacy.
• Strategic Limitations: Without Trump's endorsement or active involvement, Don Jr.'s chances diminish significantly.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [12:37]: "He's a narcissist, and he views them simply as a proxy, pure proxy, for himself."

Chris Cillizza [13:19]: "He actually has to have the nuclear football to have the power. And Trump would not have fallen for that, but Don might."

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4. Tucker Carlson: The Unlikely Contender

Tucker Carlson's potential as a Republican nominee is discussed, with both hosts acknowledging his exceptional communication skills and deep connection with the base. However, they question his willingness to transition from media to politics.

Key Points:

• Authenticity and Charisma: Carlson's genuine demeanor and eloquence make him a favorite among conservative audiences.
• Reluctance to Run: Despite his appeal, Carlson shows no significant ambition to pursue the presidency, making his candidacy uncertain.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [22:32]: "If Tucker Carlson decided that he wanted to be the Republican nominee for president, I think he would be, he is perfectly in line with where the Republican base is right now."

Chris Cillizza [24:22]: "He is an unbelievably charming guy. Totally agreed."

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5. The Inescapable Trump Dominance

Both hosts agree that Trump’s influence remains a central force in the Republican Party. They argue that any viable GOP candidate must align closely with Trump’s ideology and have his endorsement to succeed.

Key Points:

• Supreme Court and Legal Challenges: Discussion on Trump’s potential defiance of constitutional norms and the likelihood of legal battles impacting his candidacy.
• Party Loyalty: The GOP's alignment with Trump makes it challenging for other candidates to gain traction without his support.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [27:07]: "No. No. Those people no longer have a spot in the party and there will be no way to walk away from him."

Chris Cillizza [29:00]: "The next, the post Trump move is going to be that real populism has never been tried."

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6. Other Potential GOP Leaders: Slim Prospects

The discussion extends to other Republican figures like Greg Abbott, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and Glenn Youngkin. JVL and Cillizza express doubts about their viability as presidential contenders, citing various personal and strategic shortcomings.

Key Points:

• Greg Abbott & Ken Paxton: Abbott is deemed too aligned with traditional politics, while Paxton's legal troubles hamper his prospects.
• Ted Cruz: Despite his debating prowess, Cruz appears disengaged and lacks a clear strategic vision.
• Nikki Haley & Glenn Youngkin: Both are seen as ineffective candidates who fail to capture widespread support within the party.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [33:17]: "Ted Cruz, I think, Ted is gonna get, I think Ted has given up and reconciled himself to a life as a podcaster."

Chris Cillizza [36:22]: "He is a broken man. And the base still hates him."

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7. The Rise of Celebrity Politics

JVL and Cillizza explore the trend of celebrities and entertainers becoming political figures within the GOP. They argue that the party is veering towards "celebrity idiocracy," prioritizing charisma over governance expertise.

Key Points:

• Candace Owens & Don Jr.: These figures represent the entertainer wing of the party, appealing to certain segments of the base but lacking broader viability.
• Future of Political Leadership: The shift towards media personalities may undermine the party’s ability to present effective policymakers.

Notable Quotes:

JVL [37:11]: "Candace Owens. You go out and talk to Republicans and ask them, like, hey, would you like to."

Chris Cillizza [38:32]: "That's so interesting. Like, you think it's. That we are that far down that road."

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8. Conclusion: A Pessimistic Outlook

The episode concludes on a somber note, with both hosts expressing skepticism about the future direction of the Republican Party. They foresee a continued dominance of Trump-centric politics, with limited space for new, diverse leadership.

Final Thoughts:

• Trumped-Out Party: The GOP remains heavily influenced by Trump, making it difficult for alternative voices to emerge.
• Political Stagnation: Without significant shifts, the party may struggle to adapt to evolving political landscapes and voter expectations.

Notable Quote:

JVL [39:12]: "I think the chances of Democrats choosing somebody who is not in elected office are actually reasonably high as well. I just think we're headed as a country towards like, full blown celebrity idiocracy."

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This episode of Bulwark Takes offers a critical examination of the Republican Party's leadership prospects, highlighting the formidable challenge posed by Trump's enduring influence and the questionable viability of other potential candidates. Listeners gain a clear perspective on the internal struggles and the possible future trajectory of the GOP as it navigates post-Trump politics.

Transcript

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[JVL]

Go to wix.com hey fam, it's JVL. I sat down with my buddy Chris Cillizza the other day and we talked a little bit about 2028 Republican nomination politics. And yeah, I know it's early, it's way early. And also Trump is probably going to run. But the most interesting part of this conversation is something that I think a lot of people are overlooking which is that in order for J.D. vance to to get the brass ring, he gonna have to climb over Don Jr. I got a lot of thoughts about that. Stick with us. Watch the show and while you're here, do me a, do me a solid hit like hit. Subscribe. Follow us. It helps the channel more than you could possibly know. Here's the show.

[Chris Cillizza]

I want to start with a piece that Jonathan wrote last week because it scratched two of my itches which is Republican politics and professional wrestling. So JVL, why don't you talk about J.D. vance for people who haven't read it, J.D. vance, the Honky Tonk man and Hulk Hogan. I'll let you go there and then, and then I'll broaden it out and I'll recommend people. If you have not read the whole piece, you need to. It is, it is one of the, it's a piece that has stuck with me and will continue to stick with me because it is a even in the category of JBL's general work, which I think is very high. I personally think it was one of the more insightful pieces I've read from him and he's generally insightful. Go ahead, Jonathan.

[JVL]

Yeah, so you and I, our politics may not line up exactly, although I suspect we've got like 90% overlap.

[Chris Cillizza]

I think that's right.

[JVL]

Our life views are 100%.

[Chris Cillizza]

100%. And where we are in our lives.

[JVL]

Where we are in our lives, the backgrounds we come up through with our cultural touchstones, our views of parenthood and sport like Chris and I are just.

[Chris Cillizza]

Wait until we do our big denunciation of youth sports. How adults ruined youth sports. We're working on that.

[JVL]

That's it.

[Chris Cillizza]

That's only a matter of time. That's our life's work. That's our Iliad and our odyssey.

[JVL]

That's coming. So we came up through the world. So my wife is calling me, and I have to make it stop. We came up through the world of professional wrestling, of WWF in the 80s, and. And one of the tertiary figures from this was a wrestler called the Honky Tonk Man. And the Honky Tonk man was. Let me back up. Nobody knows. Unless you're deep into wrestling, you don't know who the Honky Tonk man is.

[Chris Cillizza]

But, I mean, I do. But. Yes, sure, right.

[JVL]

But everybody knows who Hulk Hogan was. And in the 1980s, Hulk Hogan was wrestling. He was. He was Michael Jordan, he was Babe Ruth. He was all those things rolled up into one. And he took wrestling from a regional sideshow into a mainstream part of pop culture because of Hulk Hogan made it.

[Chris Cillizza]

What it has become. Without Hulk Hogan, Even with Vince McMahon, without Hulk Hogan, it probably doesn't happen, right?

[JVL]

And as a consequence, Hulk Hogan got to have a lot of say within the company, in part because they wanted to keep the big guy happy on the road. And he was wrestling on the road 300, probably 60 days a year. And he liked to have his buddies around him. And so there were a lot of wrestlers who were great wrestlers at the time. Then there were a lot of wrestlers who were just buddies of Hulk. And so they got hired. One of them was this guy called the Honky Tonk Man. Now, the Honky Tonk Man's gimmick was he was like a bad Elvis impersonator.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yep.

[JVL]

And Hulk and this guy went way back together. And Hulk said, oh, we gotta hire him, brother. It's gonna be very.

[Chris Cillizza]

That's not a bad Hulkin, actually.

[JVL]

Yeah, brother. And so the Honky Tonk gets hired, and Hulk pushes him to the moon. And the idea is we're gonna, you know, WD is gonna push him. We're going to make him a baby face. So he is going to be one of the. One of the people that people cheer for. And he shows up. And from the very beginning, the audience rejects this character. This is a thing that happens in wrestling. Like, the audience has a say, and the company can try to push something on the audience, but it only goes so far, right? The audience gives a verdict, like thumbs up or thumbs down.

[Chris Cillizza]

It's like Roman for modern wrestling fans. It's the trials and travails of Roman reigns as a face.

[JVL]

Yes. And so they fucking hated Honky Tonk. And it didn't matter what the, what Vince and Hulk did to try to put Honky Tonk over, it didn't work. And so eventually they launched a write in campaign. They said, we're going to have, we're asking the fans for a vote of confidence. And so they gave.

[Chris Cillizza]

So weird that this happened. I did not remember this happened, by the way. Like, your piece reminded me that it happened. I did not recall this.

[JVL]

Yeah. And so they, they, this is what people did before there was an Internet, is they, they literally put on the screen, you know, write in what you think, should we, let's stay with Honky or not. And WWE fans wrote in and said, we don't like him. Make him go away. And so WWE turned him into a heel. And so Honky Tonk became a bad guy. And that worked better. They liked, the audiences were okay with him as a heel, but the truth is, even as a heel, he was, he was very knit. He relied on what's called Cheap Heat, which is like the least imaginative way. You know, he'd go into, go into Michigan and be like, what are the hell talking about Ann Arbor? This is call it and poop or something.

[Chris Cillizza]

Exactly. It's like the greatest Cheap Heat is Rick Rude being like Rick Rude, who was like supposed to be really good looking. And he'd get up there and he'd be in Columbus, Ohio, and you'd be like, which one of your pig women want to come up here and be with a real man? Yeah.

[JVL]

Yes, Yes.

[Chris Cillizza]

I did love Rick Rude, by the way.

[JVL]

And so eventually they, the audience turned even on this and he got what's called Nuclear Heat, which is when in wrestling when the crowd doesn't. They're not rooting against you because they enjoy rooting against you. They want you to be fired from the show. Like wrestling fans view wrestling as a TV show and when they decide about the character, they just don't want to see you anymore. That's death.

[Chris Cillizza]

That's it.

[JVL]

Like, that's, that's it. And they didn't want to see Honky Tonk anymore. And so he left wrestling after a pretty brief stint. I think he was there for five years in total. And the short of this is that JD Vance is the Honky Tonk Man. And you look at this guy and he is. He's never been very good on his own. He has been pushed along by a series of people who he has ingratiated himself with, beginning with Amy Chua, the tiger mother Back at Yale. And he just sort of keeps, you know, that he made friends with from. Yep. Then he made friends with Teal. Then he made friends with Don Jr. And he, he got pushed to, to be like, oh, look in the company. He's a face. You didn't. People didn't really buy it and they don't like him. I don't think anybody likes J.D.

[Chris Cillizza]

Vance. So you don't think the MAGA base likes J.D.

[JVL]

Vance? I don't think so. Except by association.

[Chris Cillizza]

Except by. So like.

[JVL]

Right.

[Chris Cillizza]

And to. Just to extend the metaphor, you didn't do it. But if, if Hogan came out with the Honky Tonk man, people would cheer because they like Hogan.

[JVL]

Right.

[Chris Cillizza]

And so it's like if Trump comes out with Vance, people cheer because they like Trump. And the question is, is like, yeah, but if you subtract Hogan, nobody's cheering for the Honky Tonk Man. And your contention is if you subtract Trump, Nobody's cheering for J.D. vance.

[JVL]

I just don't think so. And I think that Vance has some real fans.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah. Yeah.

[JVL]

And Vance is Vance's real fame. There are people who are into him. Those people are like Rod Dreher. Right. And so like Vance. Vance has basically.

[Chris Cillizza]

They're not the rank and file of the Mag Up Conservative Party.

[JVL]

Yeah. And so, you know, like Rod Dreher and the editors of First Things. Right. Compact magazine, like these incredibly weird niche.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah. Hyper intellectual. Trying to put an intellectual framework around Trumpism.

[JVL]

Right.

[Chris Cillizza]

Sort of.

[JVL]

Those are the people. Yeah. Who are super. Those are just, you know, devoted fans for J.D. vance. And I just don't think that there is a viable base of popular support there. And so his whole view of 2028 is I can only win by keeping anybody else from getting in the race. And so my, my interesting theory of J.D. vance is that his strategy is to convince the two most obvious people, Tucker Carlson and Don Jr. To not run for president by saying, we're best friends, I love you, you love me. We all want the same thing. You don't, you don't want to. You don't want to be president. You be president. They do that. It's all hard. People say pain that be president for you. And, and, and you just do your own thing, man, and it'll be great. Right. And if he can execute that, then, like, maybe he could beat Ron DeSantis. Right. I mean, he could beat some tomato Dan Jobber.

[Chris Cillizza]

Right, exactly.

[JVL]

But, but the people who would be the actual inheritors of the populist throne, I think his only chance of beating them is to convince them that they don't need to run because he's their guy.

[Chris Cillizza]

I don't want to torture the metaphor because I love the Honky Tonk Man. JD Vance is Honky Tonk Man. So much so I don't want to be like, and who is this candidate as a wrestler. But I do want to talk about the rest of the field and as a way to talk about because I, I'm pretty sure, although you and I haven't talked about this lately, but I'm pretty sure you and I have a similar view of what 2028 looks like for Republicans. But let's just, let's. Because you mentioned these two, I do want to talk about Don Jr. And Tucker. I have not, I have not mentioned Tucker in my kind of top tier, but I always say to me, Don Jr. Feels like, like if JD Vance didn't exist and, you know, the vice presidential nominee was whoever, I'd be like, well, Don Jr. For sure. What is your read on people who are not part of that MAGA world? I mean, the number of eye rolls, gasps surely not that I get from people when I say Don Jr. And I say like, I don't know. Have you ever been to a Trump rally? Have you ever seen who gets the most applause other than Senior? It is not J.D. vance. It is not fill in the blank surrogate. It is Don Jr because he is kind of like, I don't know if you do Trump 2.0, the ID of the Trump. I don't, I don't know how you could be more ID that Donald Trump Senior is, but the ID of the Trump movement. Can you talk about how you see him? Because I think people do not take his chances seriously enough, particularly people not of the kind of MAGA movement.

[JVL]

Go, I'll go this far. I will say that if Trump doesn't run himself, I think is an absolute live possibility in the.

[Chris Cillizza]

Let's talk about that in a minute. Let's talk about that in a minute.

[JVL]

Yes, but if he were to choose not to run, I think the most likely reason for that would be because he is positioning Don Jr. To run. I think he thinks dynastically somebody in the comments just said, what about an outsider like Nikki Haley, a true outsider.

[Chris Cillizza]

I love, I want to talk about the Nikki Haley thing because I literally think it is if you actually are not joking about Nikki Haley and you it is such a misread of what the Republican Party is right now. But yes, he does absolutely believe in sort of the dynastic nature of it. He's very focused on legacy. He's very focused on being consequential. And to the extent he's loyal to anyone, which I do think is a somewhat debatable proposition, but to the extent loyal to anyone, it is like direct family members.

[JVL]

And for the most understandable reason. Right. Because he's a narcissist, and he views them simply as a proxy, pure proxy, for himself. Right. He's like, yes, they are me. And, you know, for somebody who's contemplating a world without. Without you at the center of it, the. The closest you can get to being comfortable with that is like, okay, take my son, who has the same name as me.

[Chris Cillizza]

Right.

[JVL]

And I think that's the most likely places go. And I think Don Jr. Has a taste for this.

[Chris Cillizza]

Oh, he absolutely has a taste for it. Did you see him in Qatar, The Qatar Economic Forum, where he's like. I mean, I'll admit I'm interested in it. Like, if I'm J.D. vance, I'm like, the only thing can.

[JVL]

Do is hug him and convince there's.

[Chris Cillizza]

Nothing he can do.

[JVL]

He doesn't want to do it. Yeah. And the question is, like, is Don dumb enough to believe that? And I think that's an open question.

[Chris Cillizza]

Believe that Vance will. Hey, you don't really want to do. To believe that line of argument.

[JVL]

Is he dumb enough to believe that he can get everything he wants without being president himself? Because that's what JD Will say. It'll be just like your president. You'll get everything you want. I'll just have to get, like, the title. I'll be the one who has to go to all the openings of the Chicken Marts and stuff.

[Chris Cillizza]

I don't want to have to cut these ribbons and kiss these babies.

[JVL]

And that's bullshit. Like, you actually have to have the nuclear football to have the power. And Trump would not have fallen for that, but Don might. Don's not too wise for that.

[Chris Cillizza]

Right?

[JVL]

Two street wives for that.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah.

[JVL]

I mean, Eric Trump would certainly fall for that. Right. It's a question like, you know, is Don as dumb as Eric or is he smarter?

[Chris Cillizza]

I think he's smarter. Yes.

[JVL]

Yeah, I do, too.

[Chris Cillizza]

And I actually think. I actually think. And I know a lot of people probably watching this, loathe Don Jr.

[JVL]

But.

[Chris Cillizza]

But I actually, having seen him operate, he has a kind of, like, feel for it. Like, you can hate it. I mean, it's like. It's like for many. For many years, Freddie Freeman was on the Braves. And as a Nats fan, I. I don't have the numbers on this, but I'm pretty sure Freddie Freeman hit about 8:50 against the Nats. I mean, the guy was going 3 for 4 with two home runs every single game. And I hated Freddie Freeman at the same. Now, Freddie Freeman appears to be a wonderful human who I'm just a terrible person for hating, but at the same time, I recognize Freddie Freeman's immense abilities as a hitter. Right. And I feel like with Don Jr. I always say to people, look, you don't have to like him, but, like, I have seen him move around. He is not. He is not putting fingers. Ron DeSantis. Like, he. He has a. A feel. And you can say, well, he's a demagogue. Like, I'm. I get it. I'm just saying in terms of what appeals to what the party is right.

[JVL]

Now, I mean, there's.

[Chris Cillizza]

He has a.

[JVL]

A feel this way.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah.

[JVL]

Let me put it this way. In 2017, the operating assumption was that Ivanka would be the successor because she's smart and she knows how to get things done and she's not an idiot and all this. And Don Jr looked at her, and she's her dad's favor. Yes. Right. Don Jr looked at her and looked at the way she was brought inside the administration and given an office in the West Wing and decided, I gotta fucking knife her. How do I do it? I'm gonna go on Fox, and I'm gonna get good at going on Fox.

[Chris Cillizza]

Rumble.

[JVL]

He was right.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah, he was right. All those things. Yep.

[JVL]

You know, like, he went and he endeared himself to the MAGA faithful and the Republican base. And now Ivanka is gone. She's, like, in. Under witness protection somewhere, and Don is now his dad's favorite kid.

[Chris Cillizza]

Let's before go through some other people. Before we go through some other people, I do want to talk about this, because I do actually think. I don't know, that we disagree about the possibility, but maybe the likelihood of the possibility. Here's what people always say to me, well, Donald Trump Senior is going to run again. And I guess my view is, constitutionally, he can't. So the way that you overcome that is you either get a favorable Supreme Court ruling or you just get an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling and you just ignore it. Is it your belief that that latter thing, no matter what the Supreme Court does, he would just do it anyway? Because I think you believe it more like. I think it is a possibility. I think you think it's more likely than I do. Correct me if I'm wrong. Tell me how you get there and then we'll talk about some other people.

[JVL]

All right. I think that Trump defying Supreme Court is the least likely of pathways to this. I think the most likely pathway is he says he's going to do it, he pushes ahead to do it, and he gets a bunch of primaries held in which he is voted for. And the Supreme Court is then asked to invalidate the will of Republican primary voters or to invent some new test like they did for the 14th Amendment, and that five people in the Supreme Court view the lesser evil as. Let the voters have their say. We'll just say it's two consecutive terms. That's what it's.

[Chris Cillizza]

By the way, which, by the way, the court does not like to and has not for a long time meddle in politics. Getting away. I mean, they do that all the time.

[JVL]

Exactly.

[Chris Cillizza]

So you're, you're, I'm putting. I have it first. It's the campaign and then the court challenge, as opposed to the court challenge that gets the campaign. That's interesting. Okay.

[JVL]

I think if you are him, you have to create facts on the ground. And the other thing you'll do is, you have to understand is by the time we get to that point, Republicans and the Republican Party will all be saying, oh, we want Trump. It won't be like, there are 15 great Republicans out there saying, no, he's got to step aside because I'm running for president. If he has said, I'm running for president, then everybody else in the Republican Party will have said, yes, sir. And so, like, what does that look like? Tears in our eyes.

[Chris Cillizza]

Big guys. Yes.

[JVL]

Tears in there. And so what does that look like when the Republican Party is saying, we want this guy? We don't even have any other candidates. How can the Supreme Court deny us this? And I can. This is one of those things where, if you forced me to, I could, I could make a good argument for John Roberts to say to Amy Coney Barrett, hey, we got to grab Neil and we got to make a 5, 4 decision on this, because if we don't let him do this, it takes us to a civil war or something. Like, I could see that in a way which I don't agree with, but which is not, Is not the most unreasonable thing in the world.

[Chris Cillizza]

I always feel like this with, with, like, you know, how he pressures institutions. I think of this all the time. And because we are of the same cultural vein, I think you will appreciate this, do you remember in Spinal Path, where they release Smell the Glove and the image, the COVID image is a woman on all fours with a dog collar around her neck and a black glove being shoved in her face. And the record promoters, like, you should have seen what they wanted to put on the COVID I feel like that, like, that feels kind of to me like the John Roberts argument, which is like, well, we can't have a civil war. You should see what he'd do if we ruled against him. You know, it's the HR McMaster, the John Kelly, the whoever who's like, you know, well, you should have seen what he wanted to do. And it's like, okay. But, like, at some point, I feel like that argument. I mean, this is that argument, at least in political terms, taken to the nth degree, right? Like, well, we're going to let him. We're going to let him ignore the Constitution because the alternative is a civil war.

[JVL]

But we've already done that, right? I mean, this is why they created presidential immunity. So they created a writ of presidential immunity purely because they thought that the prospect of having Trump in jail while running for president was too dangerous. Yeah, and I disagree with that. But, I mean, at some point, like, you're pot committed to that proposition as an institution, Right? I mean, you've. You've decided that you can't let the. He'll die eventually. God will take care of this eventually. And so if we give him this last term, this third term, he won't ask for a fourth term because he'll, you know, he won't survive as long. But I think. I think a lot of this could be avoided by people understanding that Donald Trump is going to be like Castro. He's going to live till he's a thousand. Like, guys like that always live forever. You know, they eat terribly, they never exercise, and they live until they're 92.

[Chris Cillizza]

But the guy down the street from you who runs 17 marathons. Yeah, I think that I remember, and I can't. You'll know this. When did you write that piece? It was a long time ago. But you wrote the Donald Trump is Forever piece.

[JVL]

I believe I wrote that in October of 2020.

[Chris Cillizza]

I think that. I think of that piece regularly. I mean, it's what we're talking about sort of here, broadly. I think of that piece a lot. I would recommend for people who don't just search Donald Trump is forever in JBL's name. It'll come up. Can we. Okay, so we stipulate as we go forward that that is at least a possibility.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Chris Cillizza]

Okay. Can we talk about is there. I hear this all the time because people say like, who's going to run? And I say like, well, I mean, I think a fair number of people run but like, I think it's like J.D. vance, Don Jr. Let's talk about Tucker briefly. But then I also want to talk about this thing of like, what about Glenn Youngkin? What about Ron Desantis? Like can you talk, let's talk first. Let's talk about Tucker briefly because I feel like Tucker's kind of receded somewhat and maybe purposely from kind of the national conversation lately. But tell me why you think he belongs in that first conversation. Then I want to talk about all the other people we hear mentioned.

[JVL]

I mean, I'll say this about Tucker. In a world where Trump decides not to run, if Tucker Carlson decided that he wanted to be the Republican nominee from president, I think he would be, he is perfectly in line with where the Republican base is right now. And he is the best talker. He's a great have ever seen.

[Chris Cillizza]

He's a great talker. I say this about Olbermann. Overman hates me. I think Overman is a little much. That's being kind because we're live. But I don't have any against him. But like my thing with Overman is no matter what he feels about, he's a genius on television. Like if you go and watch what he did with Countdown or certainly Sports center, he's a genius. It's a certain skill and he's remarkable at it. Tucker is a remarkably gifted communicator.

[JVL]

He just is unbelievable. Yeah, he's unbelievably good. Yep. And, and I, I just think the base wants more of that. They want his type of authenticity. They don't want another politician. They do not want some governor. You know, they, they right. They don't want some senator. And so I think with Tucker the question would be, would he want to run? And he never has. No. I mean this is something, I've been old friends with Tucker for a long time. We do not break bread often. We haven't spoken in a long time. But I, I know for certain he has never wanted to run for president. He's never had that ambition at all. But if he were to change his mind, I think he would be impossible to stop.

[Chris Cillizza]

I see some people in the comments saying, how can you say Tucker is authentic? Now I actually agree with, you know, this is the bow tied, you know, William F. Buckley. Like, and, and now he's the Trumpian, like explain what you mean and why he is what Republican you think the Republican base wants.

[JVL]

I mean, Tucker, authentic is is such a weird verb because it doesn't mean exactly what the, the OED definition of it means. Right. Donald Trump is very authentic, even though he's very 90% of the time. But it's authentic. Right. It's, you know, it is what it is.

[Chris Cillizza]

Comfortable, his own skin says what he thinks. That's what people.

[JVL]

Yeah. It's George Costanza. Right. It's not a lie if you believe it 100 and so long as you believe it when you're saying it, then you're not lying. Right. That's the difference, I think, between authenticity and non authenticity is the people who understand that they're lying and are trying to sell something versus the people who genuinely believe what they're saying in the moment, every moment. And I think Tucker's a lot like that. Plus, again, Tucker's just, I'm sorry, he's an unbelievably charming guy. Totally agreed.

[Chris Cillizza]

I think people who've never met him probably don't they, they're like, how can you. And I'm like, well, like I know him through mutual. I haven't talked to him in years either. And you're. I'm sure you knew it better. But like I know him through mutual people. And like, yes. I mean I would say, by the way, the few times I've met Donald Trump, he's like, people don't get this about him. Like, this is why the whole fake news things makes me insane because no one cares more about the media and no one is more aware of media and no one is more solicitous of the media than Donald Trump. I mean, George W. Bush and Barack Obama were genuinely, genuinely disdainful of the media. Like they didn't really understand why there's a pain in their ass. And Trump, every time I've ever seen. Yeah. Hey, you're doing great work. Now, of course he's never read. He didn't know that I'm doing that. But he is. He is. That is who he is.

[JVL]

This is kid. And if I can just say to people in the comments, because I see you guys talking about this, there is a magic that people who are good at politics have and it is like the Dungeons and Dragons character attribute, category, charisma. And you don't have to like it or agree with it. And it doesn't always work. Look, I never understood the Bill Clinton charm, but Bill Clinton was a charming motherfucker Right. And it didn't work on me. I wasn't the target demo. But you can't deny that it exists. And Tucker has that.

[Chris Cillizza]

And I totally agree. Let's talk. Before we talk to individual names, do you, again, with the stipulation of who knows what Donald Trump Sr. Does, do you see any scenario where the next Republican nominee for president is not a full fledged Trump acolyte?

[JVL]

No. No. Those people no longer have a spot in the party and there will be no way to walk away from him. And like, right.

[Chris Cillizza]

There's no, there's no, like, oh, I agree with some of what he said, but not everything. Like, there's no there, there won't be a, there's no subtlety that exists there.

[JVL]

And more than that, I think that 2024 was an object lesson to people who might think about starting a primary challenge or starting an exploratory committee, even. I mean, this is one of the things you're going to see. We're going to pass the midterms, which is going to be when people start announcing their exploratory committees for office on the Democratic side and the Republican side is going to be absolute silence. Nobody is going to dare put a toe over the line.

[Chris Cillizza]

Because of Trump.

[JVL]

Because of Trump. Because even saying it out loud, because this is, again, it is like a hostage situation where he keeps toying with the idea of 2028. And so until he specifically disavows it, then saying that you are going to set up an exploratory committee and go do an event in Iowa, that is an act of treason. And you have seen what happened to all of those people who ran in 2024. Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Chris, those guys are all roadkill. They're out of the party. I mean, DeSantis is still there, and I understand that. Well, Ron DeSantis still thinks he's running for president, which is amazing to me.

[Chris Cillizza]

Well, he also probably thought his wife was going to be the governor of the state three months ago.

[JVL]

Yeah, no, I mean, he did.

[Chris Cillizza]

And again, Donald Trump just totally power played that, you know, 100%.

[JVL]

And they're going to look at this and, you know, anybody who is half, you know, two brain cells to run, to rub together is going to look at this and say, no way. I'm not going to have what happened to me, what happened to Mike Pence happen to me. I'm not going to have what happened to Ron DeSantis happen to me.

[Chris Cillizza]

Let me pause. I agree with you. I just want to Play devil's advocate for a minute, let's say. So Trump is at like 42, 43% approval in the general electorate right now. He's over 80, certainly among Republicans, probably 85, 86%. Let's say he gets down, and I think you and I have talked about this publicly and privately before, which is his floor is probably pretty high in the same way that his ceiling and polling is probably pretty low. And so I don't think he's going to 29 like George W. Bush was, but let's say he gets into the mid-30s by the 20, they lose big in the midterm. They lose the house by 20 seats. They keep the Senate by a seat. He's at 36% approval. It's January, it's March 2027. His numbers among Republicans dip below 80%. Is there not a case to be made then that you can say you could, as a candidate, say, I love what Donald Trump did, but we need something a little bit different? Or is it just. Am I, am I thinking in the old way of, like, polling matters?

[JVL]

Yeah, I think that's, that's the old view. Right. I mean, this is, I think that.

[Chris Cillizza]

As I was saying it, I was thinking it too, but I, you know, I figured, why not?

[JVL]

I mean, I don't even, I mean, regardless of how this turns out, the next, the post Trump move is going to be that real populism has never been tried. Right. It's not going to be like, hey, we got to tack back to the center. Maybe we should try governing or democracy or something. If, like, let's pretend Trump, the bottom falls out, we get a recession, Trump falls like 32% approval. Right. Even there, the answer is not going to be Glenn Youngkin. It's going to be, we've been stabbed in the back by all of these deep state blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And what we have to do is we've got to do real populism.

[Chris Cillizza]

Right? So, so even really further down, even further down that rabbit hole, not out of the rabbit hole.

[JVL]

Yeah, that's, that's where the party is. Because again, I mean, the dynamics are there because everybody who would have wanted, like Glenn Youngkinism, they're gone. They're not in the party anymore. Right. So where's the appetite for that?

[Chris Cillizza]

I know every time somebody mentions him, I'm like, the party is going to go from Donald Trump to a guy who made millions at Carlisle and whose signature thing is that he wears vests. Like, it just doesn't feel Glenn Young among the kids, among the dads who go to my kids private school in Northern Virginia.

[JVL]

They love Glenn Youngkin now I'm sure.

[Chris Cillizza]

They do and they're ostensibly Republicans. But like it's. That's not a thing. That's. That's not scalable.

[JVL]

Do you think Glenn Youngkin believes in Glenn Youngkin? Because that's the thing that I've never been able to understand. For a guy who seems so smart, he does not seem to be realistic about the world in which he lives.

[Chris Cillizza]

So I, because Carlisle is based in. In Northern Virginia, I know many people who work there and many people who used to work there. And for people don't know Carlisle is where Glenn Youngkin made all his money. And their view of Youngkin is he is a pretty good face for Carlisle. He's really good in a meeting where you're trying to recruit new business. But he's not the strategic mind behind. You know what I mean? Like he's not picking up what you're the guy. He is not David Rubenstein. You know what I mean? He is not like the guy who made Carlisle. Carlisle. Right. He's a guy who's like he looks good, you know, he's good in front of sheriff.

[JVL]

He's good at blah, blah, blah.

[Chris Cillizza]

Yeah, exactly. And so given that I guess I see him through that lens more which makes me think he probably does kind of believe in Glenn Youngkin because he's.

[JVL]

Guys like that always believe in themselves.

[Wix Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Chris Cillizza]

He's just kind of like playing the role to which he was born. You know what I mean? Like and so that makes me wonder does he probably take some kind of. Well, does he think hard about it? Even though I agree with you. And so by the way. So just in that category I would put Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia is a non starter. Right. Given. Given that. Right.

[JVL]

Yeah.

[Chris Cillizza]

Nikki Haley is done in American Republican politics for the first. I mean I don't see a way in.

[JVL]

Right, done.

[Chris Cillizza]

I'm just going through all these other Desantis same thing. Okay, so let me just go through a few other people just because I'm selfishly. I just want to get your take on them. I'm going to go in alphabetical order. Greg Abbott, three term governor of Texas more in his heart of hearts, more John Cornyn than Ken Paxton. I know that's a little bit of a deep cut if you don't follow politics all that closely but more aligned with what the establishment used to be the kind of Mago world. What do you make of him and do Ted Cruz while you're at it. While we're in Texas.

[JVL]

Yeah. I mean, I think that if somebody was going to come out of Texas, it would be Paxton, because it's got to be somebody who, who went to jail. Right. Or who almost went to jail. He didn't go to jail.

[Chris Cillizza]

Texas is Trump.

[JVL]

And so if you're going to be a traditional politician, what has to be your strategic advantage has to be you are so far outside of the mainstream of traditional politics. And what that Paxton.

[Chris Cillizza]

Right.

[JVL]

That everybody else is repelled by you because you're like, you are literally a crook. Right.

[Chris Cillizza]

Speaker, who is a Republican in Texas, tried to impeach Ken Paxton. Like, that's, that's what you need.

[JVL]

Yeah, that's, that's my view. Ted Cruz. I mean, I, at some point, Ted is gonna get, I think Ted has given up and reconciled himself to a life as a podcaster.

[Chris Cillizza]

But what he was born for, honestly, he's, he's another, I always say to people, Ted Cruz is a good talker.

[JVL]

He's a pretty good talker. He's like, he does not appear to enjoy being in the Senate. He does not appear to enjoy his life. Like, I don't, I just don't understand what that guy's doing.

[Chris Cillizza]

Somebody said, I'll call an audible because somebody, I assume this was serious. If it wasn't. Sorry. But somebody in the comments just said Chris Sununu. I mean, that to me is like, that's like the chances of Chris Cillizzo being elected as the Republican nominee. Like, I, I, I mean, I just don't. What? What?

[JVL]

0.00%. Yeah. Yeah.

[Chris Cillizza]

Do any of the following names jump out at you in any way, shape or form as interesting, whether in 2028 or beyond, as a future leader of the Republican Party? Stop me when you've heard one. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Tom Cotton and. Or Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott, any of those people. Rubio is the name that gets the most run because clearly, even though he had, like, a very public fight with Trump during 2016, I guess nobody remembers anything about the past. He is now National Security Advisor and Secretary of State. Oh, well, Trump trusts him. What do you make of Rubio?

[JVL]

0.000 chance. Everybody chances. I mean, he's turned into a schlub. I don't know if you've noticed this, but, like, he, he's no longer like the dashing, good looking he is. He's now like, sweaty with his hair receding and he's just broken. He's a broken man.

[Chris Cillizza]

I feel that sweaty and hair receding. I feel those vibes.

[JVL]

He is a broken man. And the base still hates him and hate him still.

[Chris Cillizza]

See, that's the thing. It's like, it's like, because they know Trump is able to forgive in some way if he thinks it's advantageous for him. But I really do think it is like a. You have to think about it like religion. Like, I do think the base will never forgive Ruby. Like, I just don't see it.

[JVL]

And see, that's what makes it easier for Trump to forgive. Right. Trump can forgive because he knows his base won't. Right. Seems to be graceful when you know that your people hold the grudge for you. I'll tell you a name you didn't have. Candace Owens. You go out and talk to Republicans and ask them, like, you know, hey, would you like to. I am telling you, in every single group, Sarah had this in 2024. So my, my partner, Sarah Longwell, does focus groups.

[Chris Cillizza]

It's an great, it is a great podcast.

[JVL]

It's like 10 of them will follow it. And in, in 2024, every single Republican focus group she did where she asked, like, who do you guys want? Overwhelmingly, they always wanted Trump, but there was in every group, one or two people who said, boy, that Candace Owens is really impressive.

[Chris Cillizza]

So is it your belief that if I gave you, if I, if I had to split this into entertainment, slash. Right. Celebrities, whether that's TV, YouTube or whatever, and I include Tucker, Candace Owens, those kind of people in there, or. And, and I guess Don Jr. Would be included in there too, although he has the right of heredity, but, but he's in that space too, versus literally any person who is a Republican currently in elected office. Would you choose the entertainer wing?

[JVL]

Yes. Yes.

[Chris Cillizza]

That's so interesting. Like, you think it's. That we are that far down that road.

[JVL]

Yes. And I, I mean, I think that the chances of Democrats choosing somebody who is not in elected office are actually reasonably high as well. I just think we're headed as a country towards like, full blown celebrity idiocracy. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Democrats will nominate some public servant who really prioritizes passing legislation, but I don't know. Trump has been president for five months now, and they've passed four bills in Congress, I think, and he signed 100.

[Chris Cillizza]

And 100 and whatever executive orders, and.

[JVL]

You know, he threw us into the first negative quarter of growth in God knows how. Long, and his approval rating is only 42%. Like, this is. I mean, like. I know, like 42% isn't great, but that's. Actually. Considering the facts on the ground, that's not bad. We're just in a. I mean, this gets to my general pessimism. This country is just fucked.