Two American Soldiers Killed as Trump’s Iran War Spirals

Summary

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Bulwark Takes — Two American Soldiers Killed as Trump’s Iran War Spirals

Date: July 18, 2026
Host: Sam Stein, with guest Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.)

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Episode Overview

In this urgent “emergency” episode, host Sam Stein and retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling respond to breaking news: two more U.S. service members have been killed in Jordan in the ongoing war with Iran, bringing the U.S. military death toll to 16. The discussion examines the military and strategic significance of the attacks, the escalating tit-for-tat between the U.S. and Iran, the collapse of diplomatic efforts, and the spiraling risks—including humanitarian and global economic impacts. Throughout, the episode maintains a somber and candid tone, highlighting both the operational details and the political failures that have allowed the conflict to escalate.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Attack and Human Toll

• [01:19] Sam Stein delivers the grave news of two American fatalities in Jordan, bringing total military deaths in the Iran war to 16. The attacked base is confirmed as Mafuak Salti Air Base, a critical U.S. and coalition hub.
• [02:30] Mark Hertling stresses the impact not only on service members but also families, citing ongoing uncertainty with one service member still missing and others wounded.
  • Quote: “Anyone that's assigned in Jordan, their families know where they are, more than likely...What CENTCOM reported was the death of two. There's another service member that's still missing.” — Mark Hertling [02:30]

2. Why Jordan Was Targeted and Base Significance

• [03:05] Hertling explains that Jordan’s bases serve as operational hinges for U.S. power projection in Iraq, Syria, and in support of Israel—making them deliberate targets for Iran looking to damage U.S. alliances and operational capabilities.
  • Quote: “Iran didn't randomly select Jordan...They're trying to hurt the US and the alliances we have and our potential to not only conduct operations in Iran, but also to support operations in Israel and Lebanon.” — Mark Hertling [03:54]

3. Details of the Attacks—Footage and Weaponry

• [04:32] Sam Stein outlines a cascade of escalating attacks on U.S. positions in Jordan, including missile/drone strikes and significant damage to U.S. Black Hawk helicopters.
  • [06:01] They discuss newly-released videos showing both the devastation and limited effectiveness of U.S. base air defense interceptors.
• [06:30] Hertling estimates the explosive power as being “at least 200 pounds,” much greater than typical mortar or rocket rounds against U.S. bases, and suggests the attacks will likely lead to serious traumatic injuries.
  • Quote: “I would say that's at least 200 pounds worth of explosive. That's more than you're gonna get...that's gonna spill your coffee, you know...this is going to cause some traumatic brain injuries and some concussions.” — Mark Hertling [06:30]
• [07:17] When asked about the weaponry, Hertling suspects drones due to their flight profile.
  • Quote: “It looked like...those were drones because of the slow movement toward the ground. If you had true missiles coming in, they'd be coming in a whole lot faster.” — Mark Hertling [07:30]

4. Problems with Air Defense

• [07:41] Stein notes declining effectiveness of interceptors; Hertling explains Iran is deliberately overwhelming U.S. defenses by destroying radar, command and control, and swarming with multiple simultaneous attacks.
  • Quote: “What Iran is attempting to do is overwhelm the defensive measures...If you shoot four or five missiles or five or six drones at one location and do it sequentially, it's just going to overwhelm the systems that are defending it.” — Mark Hertling [08:40]

5. Wider Regional Escalation

• [09:01] Stein recaps the wider spiral:
  • Nightly U.S. bombings on Iranian sites.
  • Iranian retaliatory missile strikes—including on U.S. bases in Jordan & Saudi Arabia, and a Kuwaiti oil facility now burning.
  • U.S. attacks on Iranian infrastructure (desalination plants, bridges), leaving 10,000 Iranians reportedly without water.

6. Military Strategy: Three Phases of the War

• [11:29] Hertling lays out the U.S. military's shifting objectives:
  1. Blind the Opponent (radars, air defense, command & control)
  2. Destroy Military Capabilities (drone bases, ammo, IRGC, navy)
  3. Attack Sustainment Systems (transport, logistics, industry; now targeting irrigation, water supply)
  • The current phase seeks to erode Iran’s ability to sustain war by hitting infrastructure—similar to Ukraine’s strategy against Russia—but so far has not forced Iran to capitulate or come to the table.
  • Quote: “They're trying to literally stop any movement inside of Iran so they can resupply the weapon systems. The problem...is attempting to force a strategic decision...But so far neither one of those things are working.” — Mark Hertling [12:50]

7. Collapse of Diplomacy: The Failed Memorandum of Understanding

• [13:52] Stein and Hertling dissect how the MOU unraveled, with misinterpretation and premature U.S. moves (sending ships through the Strait of Hormuz), provoking Iranian escalation.
  • Quote: “No, I think it's because the MOU was really dicked up. I mean, it was just a terrible document...the original memorandum of understanding, which was a path toward further negotiation, was so incredibly bad that both sides had misunderstanding...” — Mark Hertling [14:18]
• [15:10] Stein singles out domestic political figures (notably J.D. Vance and Trump) for both negotiating a flawed deal and failing to take responsibility for its breakdown.

8. Escalation Dynamics: No End in Sight

• [15:59] Both agree neither side is prepared for genuine de-escalation. The cycle of attacks/outbidding each other is now driving policy instead of policy guiding military actions.
  • Quote: “We're seeing escalation driving policy rather than policy driving military operations.” — Mark Hertling [16:28]
• [16:44] Neither side seems willing or culturally able to walk back escalation. Both are “widening the range of targets that could certainly escalate to a position where total war is going to be the result. And that's what scares the hell out of me.” — Mark Hertling [16:59]

9. Obstacles to Renewed Diplomacy

• [17:23] Stein and Hertling observe deep mistrust: “Not much in the way of diplomatic channels.”
  • Trump’s approach is described as “narcissistic,” while the Iranian regime sees itself as “embarrassed,” making both unlikely to compromise.

10. Oil and Global Economic Risks

• [18:41] With only eight ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz daily (down from normal levels), the global oil market is facing severe risk, as supplies dwindle and prices rise.
• [19:24] Hertling underscores Iran’s asymmetric strategy of targeting the global oil supply, leveraging the U.S.'s vulnerability to economic shock. He warns that hitting critical infrastructure and causing humanitarian crises risks turning the U.S. into a “pariah” on the world stage, with accusations of war crimes likely to grow.
  • Quote: “We're now being seen, much like Russia is being seen when they strike civilian targets, as the ones that commit war crimes.” — Mark Hertling [20:07]

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Memorable Quotes

• “It is horrible. It is frankly...pretty foreboding honestly, because this comes amid the falling apart, the absolute dismantling of the Memorandum of Understanding...”
  — Sam Stein [01:19]

• “If the answer is, well, we're striking them because they disobeyed what we wanted them to do, then we're seeing escalation driving policy rather than policy driving military operations.”
  — Mark Hertling [16:28]

• “Neither side wants total war...but both are widening the range of targets that could certainly escalate to a position where total war is going to be the result. And that's what scares the hell out of me.”
  — Mark Hertling [16:59]

• “We're now being seen much like Russia is being seen when they strike civilian targets as the ones that commit war crimes.”
  — Mark Hertling [20:07]

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Segment Timestamps

• 01:19 — Breaking news: Death of two U.S. service members in Jordan.
• 02:30 — Family and strategic context of the strikes.
• 03:54 — Why Jordan is being targeted.
• 06:01–06:30 — Analyzing attack footage; scale of explosions and injuries.
• 07:17–08:40 — Drones, interceptors, and tactics to overwhelm air defenses.
• 09:01–10:10 — Recap of escalation across the region.
• 11:29 — Explanation of three U.S. wartime strategy phases.
• 13:52–15:10 — Breakdown of the failed MOU and diplomatic missteps.
• 15:59–16:44 — Escalation driving policy.
• 17:23 — Barriers to reopening diplomacy.
• 18:41 — Oil market impacts; reputational blowback for the U.S.

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Closing Tone

The episode ends on a somber, almost fatalistic note, with both participants expressing deep concern for the spiraling nature of the conflict, the absence of diplomatic offramps, and the broader dangers of uncontrolled escalation—for both the U.S. and the world. The hosts underscore the failures of policy and leadership, the heavy burden on the military and families, and the growing risk of wider humanitarian and global economic devastation.

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Transcript

[Kalshi Announcer]

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[Bluf]

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[Sam Stein]

Hey everybody, it's me, Sam Stein managing out at the Bulwark. I am joined by Mark Hertling who is here on a Saturday afternoon, 5pm or so. We're coming to kind of in an emergency setting because news is broken earlier today about the death of two additional U.S. service members in the war that we are engaged in with Iran. That brings the number of service members, according to New York Times, who have died in the war up to 16. These two service members were killed in Jordan after an attack on the base there. Seccom confirmed it and look, it's obviously horrible. It is horrible. It is frankly and Mark, you can take over here. It's pretty foreboding honestly, because this comes amid the falling apart, the absolute dismantling of the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, the escalation of hostilities and frankly as it becomes harder and harder to see any de escalatory path out of this. But let's start with the service members. Mark, you've lived through this and I just sort of would love to hear your thoughts on what people in the service must be going through, the horrors they're going through right now.

[Mark Hertling]

Well yeah, Sam, not just the service members but their families too because you know Anyone that's assigned in Jordan, their families know where they are, more than likely. But what CENTCOM reported was the death of two. There's another service member that's still missing. And they talked about the wounded that were returned to duty and some had minor injuries. But we'll show the film, I think, in a minute. But this all occurred at the Malwa Fox Salty Air Base, which is in Jordan. It's near a town called Azrak in eastern Jordan, which is about 60 miles west of the Iraqi border. And it's part of the rat line that goes from Syria through Jordan into Iraq. It's about 25 miles from the Saudi border as well. But if you were to see the map of this area, it's not only a strategically important coalition air base because of what's going on now in Iran, but it's also very close to Israel. From a military perspective. Mafuak Salti matters because, yeah, it's a airbase of one of our partners, Jordan, but it's also a forward operating location for U.S. air Force fighters, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, tankers, which are especially important when you're talking about the long legs from the Middle east and the Levant to Iran. But it also has special operations forces there. It's one of, in my view, one of the principal hubs supporting the operations over both Iraq and Syria. And it's a critical node for CENTCOM operations throughout the Gulf. So if I were explaining this, I'd say Iran didn't randomly select Jordan because this is an operational hinge. They're not trying to hurt Jordan. They're trying to hurt the US and the alliances we have and our potential to not only conduct operations in Iran, but also to support operations in, in Israel and Lebanon.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, you got ahead of a question I was about to ask, which is why. Why Jordan seems to be such focal point right now for these attacks. You mentioned the troops who have been hurt in addition to those who have been killed. I'm just going to read from the Times and then I want to show the video. The first attack to hit US Forces in Jordan struck a residential facility at the King Fasal Air Base, wounding as many as five US Service members. Second hit a base in eastern Jordan where the US Black Hawk helicopters were operating from damaging a significant number of them. Then, 48 hours ago, Iranian missiles hit Jordan's Malfaxati Air Base in Azraq, which is the same base where the troops were killed on Friday, which we referenced, the earlier strike wounded about 20 troops. U.S. troops rushing to take Cover in bunkers. No one was killed in that barrage. But on Friday, when the Iranians struck the base again, two U.S. troops were killed and four other service members were injured. That's according to U.S. officials. Let's play two videos in a row. Let's play the one to show sort of just how violent the hit was and how dramatic it was. And then we'll play the one with the interceptors. Jesus. Okay, and here's the interceptors.

[Mark Hertling]

You can see in this one, the interceptors going up. And there's a mingling of both the interceptors and the. And the. Either missiles or drones coming down. And then you see the strike pattern of the two hits. I would guess that's probably about two or three kilometers away, and it's some pretty good explosions.

[Sam Stein]

Let's talk about the first one, the first explosion, because I don't think people would usually get that type of footage.

[Mark Hertling]

It was close, Sam. And I also think it was very large. I mean, I'm not a explosive ordinance demolitions expert, but I would say that's at least 200 pounds worth of explosive. That's more than you're gonna get, certainly on what I experienced in Iraq as mortar rounds or even rockets that were fired at bases. That's gonna spill your coffee, you know. And what I'd also say is, you know, for the injured that are returned to duty. I'm hearkening back to when President Trump said a couple of years ago when a base was hit in Iraq, he said, oh, yeah, they're just a couple of headaches. No, no, no, this is going to cause some traumatic brain injuries and some concussions.

[Sam Stein]

Forgive me for my ignorance here, but what is Iran firing here? Are those missiles? Are those drones? Are those drones with some explosive technology on them? What exactly do you think they're firing at the base?

[Mark Hertling]

It looked like, and this is just a guess on my part, those were drones because of the slow movement toward the ground. If you had true missiles coming in, they'd be coming in a whole lot faster.

[Sam Stein]

And why did the interceptors not. Obviously, nothing's infallible and things will get through. But in this case, it appears, according to reporting, that the interceptors are not getting as much, that the rate of interception is declining significantly.

[Mark Hertling]

Yeah, And I think that's because Iran has destroyed a lot of the radar systems for incoming missiles. They've also destroyed some of the command and control, the guys inside the vans who are pushing the buttons. But they're also, from what I can see in that video, they're Trying to overwhelm the defensive systems. When you have air defense, it's something you can't move them around a lot. So it's a point defense. And you can't say, hey, we're going to defend here today and defend here tonight and defend here tomorrow and get everything coming in at the same time. Any kind of air base is going to have good defensive measures around it, especially with that amount of U.S. aircraft using that Mafawak base. But I would suspect that what Iran is attempting to do is overwhelm the defensive measures. You can only fire two or three at any given time against a missile. So if you shoot four or five missiles or five or six drones at one location and do it sequentially, it's just going to overwhelm the systems that are defending it.

[Sam Stein]

Let's back up a little bit because what we've had now is a aggressive escalation of hostilities. Over the past seven days, we've had nighttime bombing of Iranian sites by US forces. For seven days in a row, we've had Iranian retaliation. Not just in Jordan. There was a. I'm going through the list here. A ballistic missile launched at a US Base in Saudi Arabia. The Iranians struck a vital oil facility in Kuwait, which you could see from satellite imagery was burning oil workers, oil sector workers were injured there. And then on the US Side, we have now taken to going after desalination plants in southern Iran. There is questions about how aggressively we're doing that, but Iranian authorities, officials in Iran said about 10,000 people are facing water short because of those hits to bridges, roaches and desalinization plants. Mark, what the hell's going on?

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[Bluf]

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[Mark Hertling]

Yeah, what we've seen, Sam, I'll break it into three phases. Early in the war, the first phase is the US was trying to blind the opponent and destroy radar, integrated air defense command networks, airplanes, locations of arms caches. In phase two, the US was trying to destroy military capabilities. The launchers, the drone bases, the ammunition depots, the aircraft, IRGC facilities, the Republic Republican Guard, Navy, and that's reducing Iran's offensive capacity. It didn't work real well because Iran is a big country and they can resupply things to areas where they have storage out to the places where they want to shoot. It appears like I would say we're in phase three and this is where the US is. Instead of merely destroying weapons or locations, we're attacking systems that allow the Iranians to regenerate military power. So we're seeing now a campaign against places like Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, transportation hubs, bridges, military logistics facility, industry, fuel distribution. This is the same kind of thing that Ukraine is attempting to do against Russia. These are all operational sustainment targets. But you know, if I went down and explained more about the importance of Bandar Abbas and Isfahan, you can see what the US military is attempting to do under the direction of the President. They're trying to literally stop any movement inside of Iran so they can resupply the weapon systems. The problem with this, Sam, I'd say this is attempting to force a strategic decision rather than, you know, I'll recount what the US has been trying to do. Rather than seeking regime change. The campaign now appears to be presenting Iran's leadership with a choice between, number one, continuing the conflict and see progressively more of the country's military and economic infrastructure degraded or destroyed, or having them start to negotiate from a weaker position. And so far neither one of those things are working.

[Sam Stein]

Let me stop you for a second because we did negotiate. We had a negotiation. I'm not saying that you can't go back and renegotiate, but we did negotiate. This is all falling apart of the Memorandum of Understanding and I know it seems like a simple question, but but why are we here? Is it just simply because the Iranians and the Americans had a disagreement over whether the Iranians were going to start charging tolls in the Strait of Hormuz? Is that literally it?

[Mark Hertling]

No, I think it's because the MOU was really dicked up. I mean, it was just a terrible document. It allowed both sides to say to the other side, you're not following what we said we were going to talk about. And I think on our side, we jumped the gun and said, hey, we're going to start now sending ships through the Strait. And Iran said, no, you're not, because that was what we were going to talk about. So we're going to start hitting ships again, and it spirals out of control from that point. And both sides are pointing at the other because the original memorandum of understanding, which was a path toward further negotiation, was so incredibly bad that both sides had misunderstanding of each other. Iran said, we're not going to allow you to do this. And President Trump said, well, then we're going to bomb the hell out of you, which he said multiple times.

[Sam Stein]

I find it shocking, honestly, and this is my own personal opinion, obviously, but it is such an abject failure, the mou. I'm actually surprised that the. The embarrassment and the blame for its failure is so confined. I mean, J.D. vance put this together, and he's now scuttling around the United States talking to Joe Rogan for three hours as this entire thing falls apart, as US service members are getting killed, as 10,000 people in Iran are without water, as this, as the Middle east is on edge, as the Kuwaitis are dealing with a huge, vital oil facility up in flames, that, to me, seems like an abject failure of diplomacy and they should own it. And I don't feel like they're owning it.

[Mark Hertling]

They're not. They're not. And what we're seeing from the very beginning, and I think we've talked about this before, it's a continuous transition from battlefield attrition. Strike targets, kill people, have J.D. vance and Hegseth and Trump all saying how much they're destroying to attempt at strategic coercion, which is not working with Iran. This is a different kind of warfare. You'd have to ask yourself the question, what strategic objectives are our targets, what we're targeting accomplish? If the answer is, well, we're striking them because they disobeyed what we wanted them to do, then we're seeing escalation driving policy rather than policy driving military operations.

[Sam Stein]

Well, then doesn't escalation Drive more escalation in this case, because Iran's not going to. Iran's not going to say, oh, you destroyed our bridges and. And you bombed our desalination plant. We give up. I mean, maybe at some point, but it doesn't strike me that they have ever done that.

[Mark Hertling]

No, I don't think so. And what this is, historically speaking, for anybody that studied warfare and combat in history, this is where the war becomes more and more difficult to control. Neither side wants total war on this, but both are widening the range of targets that could certainly escalate to a position where total war is going to be the result. And that's what scares the hell out of me.

[Sam Stein]

And I guess the other question is, how do you get back to an MOU after one was ripped apart so quickly? Right. Like, what kind of trust do either side have for one another at this juncture? What kind of diplomacy can you do? They clearly don't trust Wyckoff and Kushner, the Iranians. And Trump clearly doesn't trust the Iranians. Yeah. It just strikes me that there's not really much in the way of diplomatic channels here to resolve this.

[Mark Hertling]

There's not. There's not. This is where one side or the other has to say, okay, this is ridiculous. We will stop everything we're doing and let's come to the table. But that, you know, that's not in Trump's psyche. He won't do that. And it's not in the Ayatollah psyche either. In the Republic, the Revolutionary Guard Corps. I'm sorry I said Republican Guard before, but the Revolutionary Guard Corps does not want to do it either. They've been attacked. They've had thousands of their citizens killed. They've been embarrassed in a culture where embarrassment is the ultimate sin. So Trump has a narcissistic approach. Iran and the Ayatollahs and the IRGC has a embarrassed approach. So it's not just a lack of trust. It's the cultural dynamics that are involved.

[Sam Stein]

I guess the one. The one component here that sort of stands out, because we know that this is on Trump's mind is global oil in the markets around global. I mean, Trump admitted that the reason he did the MOU to begin with was that we were four weeks away from a global oil catastrophe. I saw some data points that there's something like eight ships going through the strait in 24 hours. Well, off anything pre war, but even basically down to where we were when the first round of conflict was at its peak. I don't know what we're looking at in terms of global oil supply at this juncture, but oil obviously is going, the price of oil is going up. Do you have a sense of anything on that front or is that. I don't know. Do you have a sense of anything on that front?

[Mark Hertling]

No. I mean, that's what Iran has been doing from the very beginning. They understand asymmetric warfare. Okay, you're going to use your military against us. We're going to use the one strength we have against you, which we know will bring you to your knees. But here's the one thing I'd add to that, Sam. As we start to get into this spiraling of escalation and we start hitting a lot of infrastructure that's not going to play well on the world stage when you know there are certainly military targets that you can hit. But when there's confusion about is it a military target or is it affecting the civilians of the nation, then the United States increasingly appears to be a pariah on the world stage. So not only are we damaging the energy markets and the economy on the global scale, we're now being seen much like Russia is being seen when they strike civilian targets as the ones that commit war crimes.

[Sam Stein]

Dark stuff. This has been a really troubling, honestly, 48 hours, it is foreboding. You can see how it can really spiral out of control and let's hope it does not turn. Mark Cartling, thank you, man. Really appreciate you unpacking this stuff. And for those who watch and appreciate Mark's work, he does command posts which you should check out. He writes more than basically anyone on staff other than Bill Crystal and jbl. So we appreciate all your contributions. Thank you, Mark.

[Mark Hertling]

All right, thanks, Sam. Talk soon.

[Sam Stein]

Take care.

[Kalshi Announcer]

The World cup championship will be crowned this week and you can trade the tourney through the finals on kalshi, America's number one prediction market platform. Right now, Spain is trading at 58% to beat Argentina meaning 100 trade pays out 166 if they win. On Kalshi, you're trading against other people in a live market. No house, no odds makers. For a limited time, download the Kalshi app and use code Defend to get $10 when you trade $10 Kal Shi Kalshi Trade the beautiful game 18 Only restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. Prices, values and available markets may differ from those mentioned. For more information, see kalshi.com regulatory what's going on everyone?

[Bluf]

It's bluff here and we're driving through the states in the Bluffmobile. And the best thing that we can do is play our favorite casino style games on Spin Quest. They have over a thousand games including live dealer blackjack and craps. With tons of slots and unlimited options, you can get a $30 coin pack for just $10. For new users sign up today, go to spinquest.com right now Spin Quest is a free to play social casino void where prohibited. Visit spinquest.com for more details.