Bulwark Takes: We're Running Low on Munitions—Just Seven Weeks Into the War

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: April 22, 2026
Host: Ben Parker
Guest: Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.), Bulwark Contributor
Focus: U.S. military readiness, impact of vaccine and logistics policy, munitions shortages, and Clausewitz’s theories on will and war

Overview

This episode of Bulwark Takes—Command Post edition—dives into the acute problems facing U.S. military readiness just seven weeks into the war with Iran. Ben Parker and Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) discuss the consequences of recent Pentagon vaccine policy changes, alarming reports of munitions depletion, logistical strain on deployed naval forces, and how classic theories of war by Carl von Clausewitz illuminate current events. The tone is critical, informative, occasionally wry, and determined to press accountability on defense decision-makers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Vaccine Policy Change and Its Impact on Readiness

[01:30 - 12:48]

• DoD Ends Mandatory Flu Shots for Troops:
  • Secretary of Defense’s new policy allows U.S. service members to opt out of the flu vaccine, invoking “freedom” and reversing Biden-era mandates.
  • Hertling’s take: “I’m all for individual freedom, but when you’re talking about a team sport, which is the US military, you also have to talk about social responsibility.” ([03:38])
  • Risks highlighted include disease spreading rapidly in closed environments—barracks, subs, ships—with cascading impacts on unit readiness and training cycles.
  • Hertling draws parallels to past preventive health policies (anthrax, malaria vaccines), querying: “Is this really about principles, or just anti-vax politics for the base?”

Memorable Quote:
“This is a dangerous and extremely dangerous policy saying, hey, you can decide whether or not you get vaccines. The military has a long history of understanding what preventive maintenance and health within a formation means from a readiness perspective.” — Mark Hertling ([06:37])

Readiness explained:
Unit readiness isn’t just about gear—it’s about people, health, and skills. Sick troops mean disrupted training, missed qualifications, and ultimately, compromised combat potential.

Vignette:
Delays in basic training for dental care parallel how sickness (from preventable illnesses like the flu) can harm a unit’s ability to deploy on time and in full strength. ([10:24 - 12:48])

2. Munitions Shortages: Running on Empty

[12:48 - 21:42]

• CNN Report & Congressional Testimony:
  • Shockingly rapid depletion of advanced munitions: 50% of THAAD and Patriot interceptors, 45% of precision strike missiles, 30% Tomahawks, 20% JASSM and SM-3/6 Air Defense missiles—all within seven weeks of the Iran war.
  • Indo-Pacific Command leader testifies that replenishing key weapons is now urgent—same munitions needed for China/Taiwan scenarios.

Memorable Exchange:
Ben: “If he’s saying that in public...what do you think the message is when they go to the closed door hearing and he says here’s what’s really going on?”
Mark: “He’s basically saying ... I may be short if you ever ask me to go to war. ... It’s time to raise a flag.” ([15:17])

• Can't Blame Ukraine Aid:

  • Ben debunks argument that Ukraine support caused current shortages: “Most of these things that we’re now running low on have nothing to do with Ukraine.” ([18:46])
  • The underlying problem: The current administration had full knowledge, yet failed to adjust production or stockpiling.

• Military Logistics Neglected:

  • “We haven’t seen a whole lot of discussion of logistics. ... As a former military guy, that concerns me because I can see the implications.” — Mark Hertling ([19:29])

3. Logistics at the Breaking Point: Navy Food Shortages and Morale

[22:43 - 31:16]

• Social Media Images from USS Abraham Lincoln:
  • Meal trays appear under-filled, reportedly only offering ~400 calories each, raising concerns about nutrition and morale for sailors on extended deployment.
  • Hertling contextualizes: “The cooks on board naval vessels are extremely good ... but these are supplied by other ships...so supply chains are reduced.” ([24:32])
  • Extended deployments (now running 12+ months instead of 6-9) strain logistics further, affecting not just food but also maintenance, fuel, and even weapons.

Morale Drivers:

1. Food quality and quantity
2. Contact with family
3. Clarity and value of mission

Memorable Story:
Hertling recalls being sent back to Germany to explain unexpected deployment extensions to angry families, underscoring the human side of readiness and morale deterioration. ([28:27 - 29:20])

• Downstream Effects:
  • Ben reflects: “If the morale in the force isn’t good, is that the kind of thing that you want to join and think that...you’re making a difference in the world?” ([31:16])

4. Clausewitz: Power, Will, and Resources in Modern War

[32:15 - 48:30]

• Why Clausewitz Still Matters:

  • Classic theory: “Power equals will times resources” (P = W x R).
  • Both hosts confess to being “Clausewitz nerds,” citing the 19th century theorist’s enduring relevance.
  • “...If you go in with a whole lot of will...and you don’t have the resources, you’re going to lose. ... If you have the best army...but you don’t have the will...you’re going to lose too.” — Mark Hertling ([36:45])

• Case Studies:

  • Russia/Ukraine: Russia’s superior resources blunted by Ukraine’s unyielding will and international support.
  • US/Iran: U.S. military might offset by lack of allied support and unclear mission, while Iran’s government and population (however repressed) won’t readily give up.
  • Loss of Coalitions: Ben: “The number of countries that at some point or another contributed to the war in Iraq, I think is 40. ... We attacked Iran with Israel. And we didn’t anymore.” ([42:16 - 42:44])

5. Decision-Making and Strategic Drift: “Who’s In Charge?”

[43:51 - 48:30]

• Fragmented National Security:

  • Roles of National Security Advisor, Secretary of State, and Secretary of Defense are split, often on a personal/loyalty basis.
  • Comparisons to Putin’s dysfunctional system: “We’re going down that same kind of road...and look what happened.” ([47:35])
  • Absence of cohesive strategy means logistical failures, diplomatic isolation, and vulnerability to adversaries’ moves.

• Missing Cohesion, Missing Strategy:

  • Hertling: “The decision making seems to be more episodic and ad hoc, and when you have that instead of a long term strategy... you’re putting yourself at a disadvantage.” ([47:38])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• [03:38] Mark Hertling: “I’m all for individual freedom, but... when you’re talking about a team sport, which is the US Military, you also have to talk about social responsibility and your reliance on...the team concept.”
• [06:37] Mark Hertling: “This is a dangerous policy... The military has a long history of understanding what preventive maintenance and health within a formation means from a readiness perspective.”
• [19:29] Mark Hertling: “We haven’t seen a whole lot of discussion of logistics... as a former military guy, that concerns me because I can see the implications of it.”
• [28:27] Mark Hertling: “There are a couple factors that really either drive up or drive down morale. Number one is the food. ... The second thing is contact with families. ... The third thing, truthfully, is, what's the mission?”
• [36:45] Mark Hertling: “...If you go in with a whole lot of will...and you don’t have the resources, you’re going to lose. ... If you go in with the best army...and you don’t have the will...you’re going to lose too.”
• [42:44] Ben Parker: “We attacked Iran with Israel. And we didn't anymore.”
• [47:38] Mark Hertling: “The decision making seems to be more episodic and ad hoc and when you have that instead of a long term strategy... you’re putting yourself at a disadvantage.”

Timestamps of Key Segments

• [01:32] — Vaccine policy change and debate on individual freedom vs. military readiness
• [07:45] — Readiness explained in practical terms (tank crew analogy)
• [10:24] — Vignette: Dental care delays and impact on training/readiness
• [12:48] — Ammunition depletion reports and implications for China/Taiwan defense
• [15:17] — Congressional testimony: Indo-Pacific Command’s munitions warning
• [19:29] — Lack of focus and discussion on logistics
• [22:43] — Navy logistics: Food shortage reports from deployed sailors
• [28:27] — The three drivers of military morale
• [32:15] — Introduction to Clausewitz and the “will vs. resources” equation
• [36:45] — Clausewitz’s relevance applied to Ukraine, Russia, Iran, and the US
• [43:51] — Impact of fractured strategic decision-making and loss of allied support

Conclusion & Looking Ahead

The episode underscores a troubling picture: U.S. defense policy is lurching between culture-war gestures (vaccine “freedom”), neglecting logistical necessities, and running down crucial wartime stockpiles—all while lacking a unifying strategic vision or robust coalition partner support. Drawing on history and classic theory, the hosts warn that current leadership is risking force readiness, mission success, and even long-term deterrence.

Next Up:
A deeper look at the China/Taiwan situation, possibly with outside experts.

For more, including behind-the-scenes commentary and audience Q&A, visit thebulwark.com or consider joining Bulwark+.