Bulwark Takes: "Why Iran’s Regime Isn’t Falling" (w/ Tim Mak) — March 13, 2026

Overview

In this episode, host JBL talks with Tim Mak of The Counteroffensive and Iran War Dispatches (both on Substack) about the ongoing turmoil in Iran, the resilience of its regime, and the complex, interconnected implications for global stability, U.S. foreign policy, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Drawing from Mak's on-the-ground reporting and interviews with Iranians and exiles, they explore the root causes and consequences of the conflict, dispel myths about the prospects for regime change, and draw attention to strategic and humanitarian crises now shaping Eurasia and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ecological Crisis as Underlying Instability

• Black Rain Phenomenon (02:38)
  • After recent bombings of IRGC oil depots near Tehran, black rain (contaminated by oil and smoke) has been falling, severely impacting local farmers—already suffering from extreme drought.
  • Mak argues that environmental breakdown, especially drought and water shortages, are the "genesis of all the upheaval in Iran," affecting inflation, food prices, and fueling unrest.
  • Quote:
    • "What really is the genesis of all the upheaval in Iran is the drought... access to water has been extremely, extremely limited." (03:13, Tim Mak)

2. Refugees & Internal Displacement

• Fewer refugees than expected have fled Iran, especially into Armenia—despite historic ties—because Iran's size allows for widespread internal displacement.
• Rural, mountainous areas in the north provide safer refuge from airstrikes, mitigating mass border crossings seen in smaller neighboring countries.
• Quote:
  • "Iran is... much larger than Iraq with the mountains of Afghanistan as its terrain features... large enough to have this war and people be displaced internally, but not yet externally." (07:36, Tim Mak)

3. Regime Resilience and Internal Suppression

• Decapitation, Succession, and Mosaic Defense
  • Despite surviving a US/Israeli decapitation strike and a leadership transition, the regime's mosaic defense (decentralized authority across provinces, emphasis on asymmetric warfare) appears effective.
  • Quote:
    • "Iran has just passed two very, very significant tests... [surviving] a decapitation strike... [and] a transition of power... That suggests... your doctrine at least hasn't been disproven." (10:02, JBL)
• Suppression of Uprising
  • The most active freedom-seekers were killed in the most recent wave of protests; IRGC brutality included executions at hospitals.
  • This loss has gutted the potential for mass internal dissent, at least in the short term.
  • Quote:
    • "These strikes came too late...the people who would have risen up now... they're all dead... you can't replace that easily." (12:33, Tim Mak)

4. Regime Change: Lack of External and Internal Momentum

• No Viable U.S./Israeli Plan
  • Military leaders have generally abandoned regime change as a near-term goal.
• Brittleness vs. Resilience
  • Authoritarian regimes can collapse rapidly, but only if internal actors choose to defect. Absent a credible alternative, IRGC and ruling elites feel incentivized to stick together.
  • Quote:
    • "Regimes... fall from internal defections... It's not clear what potential alternative could emerge..." (15:16, JBL)
• Arming Iranian Kurds?
  • The prospect of aiding rebellion via Kurdish groups is floated, but considered risky and unlikely to succeed without exhaustive support infrastructure.

5. Strategic, Economic, and Geopolitical Realities

• Oil Prices as a War Constraint
  • The daily metric for Iran War Dispatches: price of crude oil. The Trump administration is increasingly constrained by rising oil prices—over $100/barrel (20:00–21:17).
  • Control of the Strait of Hormuz is central: as long as it's closed, global pressure remains regardless of declared U.S. intentions.
  • Quote:
    • "You can say the war is over, but as long as the Iranian military... decide to keep that strait closed... the reason why the United States is looking for an easy withdrawal is not going to diminish." (22:24, Tim Mak)
• Iranians Think They’re Winning
  • Iranian officials project "increasing optimism" about having weathered U.S./Israeli attacks, believing time and rising oil prices are on their side.
  • Quote:
    • "That is a position that you take when you think you're winning." (23:04, JBL)
• Future Scenarios
  • JBL fears the most likely endgame is a face-saving U.S. exit in exchange for sanctions relief, which paradoxically empowers the regime—essentially a repeat of pre-war nuclear deal dynamics.
  • Quote:
    • "This is... classic Trump. You set a fire, you then put the fire out and you tell everybody, look at that, the fire's gone." (27:03, JBL)

6. War Widening? Global Security Concerns

• Interconnected Conflicts: Iran & Ukraine
  • Weapons and tactics (especially drones and missile defense systems) are cross-pollinating between the Iran and Ukraine wars, stretching U.S. and Western resources thin.
  • Depletion of missile interceptors for Middle East defense directly impacts Ukraine's frontline survival (35:23).
  • Quote:
    • "America and its Middle East allies expended more Patriot interceptors in a week than had been provided to Ukraine over four years of warfare." (35:39, Tim Mak)
• Global Ramifications
  • The Iran conflict has led to strikes on Cyprus, Azerbaijan, and across two dozen countries—removing longstanding checks on great power escalation.
  • U.S. depletion of missile stocks complicates any potential defense of Taiwan or South Korea against Chinese/North Korean aggression.
  • Quote:
    • "Trump had a choice to make: attack Iran or protect Taiwan... we've already made a tacit decision to not defend Iran. That is kind of horrifying to me." (33:53, Tim Mak)

7. Ukraine’s Precarious Situation

• Material Shortages, Resilience, and Psychology
  • As Europe is forced to rebuild its own defense industries in response to U.S. shortages, Ukraine must adapt to increasing bombardment and less protection.
  • Quote:
    • "The idea of Ukrainians just deciding... we’re just going to stop now, I don’t think that's what we’re going to do... the costs of continuing to resist... are just going to increase." (39:02, Tim Mak)
  • Mak describes the normalization of constant danger and the psychological resilience of Ukrainians:
    • "You just deal with it, because what else is there to do but deal with it?" (40:34, Tim Mak)
• Warning to the West
  • Technologies—cheap, effective drones especially—that devastate Ukraine and Iran will inevitably threaten the West.
  • Calls for Americans to act, organize, and support freedom and security proactively—while they still can.

8. Implications for U.S. Hegemony & Western Security

• JBL laments America’s abdication of global leadership for domestic comfort ("eggs got too expensive"), likening it to the decadence that dooms empires (43:30).
• Trust in both American and Iranian official sources is at historic lows, and the dire need for trusted, on-the-ground journalism is highlighted.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On drought as the root of Iranian instability:
  "You could argue that... it all comes down to Iranian farmers suffering through a drought." (03:32, Tim Mak)

• On regime brutality wiping out dissent:
  "The IRGC didn’t merely shoot them in the streets, but then went into hospitals and went room to room executing people... these people are gone and they won’t come back." (12:46, Tim Mak)

• On defense policy dilemmas:
  "Trump had...a choice to make... either attack Iran or protect Taiwan. We’ve already made a tacit decision to not defend Iran." (33:53, Tim Mak)

• On Ukraine’s adaptation to terror:
  "At the beginning of the war, I would rush down to the basement every night... Now... I just need to sleep, so I’m just gonna pull my sleeping bag into the hallway and sleep on the floor... you just deal with it." (40:24, Tim Mak)

• On future threats to the West:
  "These terrible and dangerous technologies... they are not going to be restricted just to those places... it’s only a matter of time until people who mean to do us harm find ways to do that in the United States..." (42:09, Tim Mak)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:53 — Where to find Iran War Dispatches coverage
• 02:38 — Black rain phenomenon and environmental crisis in Iran
• 05:20 — Internal Iranian reactions to external attacks
• 06:53 — Refugee dynamics and Armenia’s role
• 08:55 — Regime resilience and recent stress tests
• 11:43 — What leads to the fall of autocratic regimes (internal vs. external pressure)
• 16:49 — Prospects and risks of arming Iranian Kurds
• 21:17 — Oil prices and U.S. political constraints in the war
• 23:08 — Regime optimism and time as an asset for Iran
• 27:03 — Comparison of current endgame to the Iran nuclear deal
• 29:51 — War widening; interconnectedness with Ukraine
• 35:23 — Patriot missiles shortage and implications for Ukraine
• 38:44 — Can Ukraine hold out? Psychological adaptation
• 43:30 — Consequences of U.S. abdication of global responsibility

How to Support or Follow Tim Mak’s Reporting

• Iran War Dispatches (on Substack): iranwar.news
• The Counteroffensive (on Ukraine): Also on Substack

Closing Thoughts

The episode provides a gripping, granular view of why Iran’s regime remains standing despite immense external and internal pressures—rooted in both brutal suppression and the regime’s adaptable, asymmetric defensive doctrine. It starkly connects the dots between climate disaster, warfare, global resource shortages, and the crisis of U.S. global leadership. The bleak but insightful discussion makes clear: the shocks now rocking Iran and Ukraine will shape the future of global security, leadership, and freedom.

For more human-centric, deeply sourced analysis, subscribe to Tim Mak’s reporting via Iran War Dispatches and The Counteroffensive on Substack.