Why Republicans Are Nervous About Iowa

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode: Why Republicans Are Nervous About Iowa

Date: June 2, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (for The Bulwark team)

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Overview

This episode delivers an incisive look at Iowa's high-stakes 2026 primary landscape, dissecting why Republicans are losing their footing and why Democrats are unexpectedly competitive. Sarah Longwell leverages both polling data and exclusive focus group insights to analyze statewide frustrations with GOP leadership, the issues energizing Democratic campaigns, and the personalities shaping critical Senate and gubernatorial races.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iowa Voter Discontent & Shifting Political Landscape

• Focus Group Research Findings (01:17–03:57)

  • Both Donald Trump and outgoing Governor Kim Reynolds are highly unpopular among Iowans.
  • Factors driving anger:
    • Tariffs harming agriculture (Trump’s approval drops from 52% to 42%).
    • "Cancer water" concerns linked to chemical runoff and elevated cancer rates.
    • Reynolds’ unpopular policies, including school vouchers causing shortened school weeks and a strict six-week abortion ban.
    • Roughly 100,000 Iowans lost health insurance due to Trump-era legislation.

  “If you don’t want to drink cancer water…We literally installed a reverse osmosis system in our house for drinking water today.”
  — Focus Group Participant [03:39]

2. Governor’s Race Analysis

• Open Republican Field (03:57–06:52)

  • Kim Reynolds not seeking reelection creates a competitive race.
  • Randy Feenstra: MAGA establishment favorite, backed by state GOP leaders, replaced Steve King in Congress.
  • Zach Lane: More extreme, outsider candidate with backing from Steve King and funding largely from outside Iowa. Some polls have Lane up, but Feenstra is likely favored.

• Democratic Prospects

  • Rob Sand: State auditor (only statewide Democrat), ex-public corruption prosecutor, and former male model.

    • Campaign focuses on “common-sense, anti-corruption, fiscal conservative” platform.

    “As governor, I’ll bring back accountability and make jail mandatory for stealing tax dollars. You should never be in the dark about your tax money.”
    — Rob Sand ad [06:52–07:22]

  • Race Rating: Cook Political Report rates this race as a “toss-up”—notable for historically red Iowa.

3. Senate Race Breakdown

• Open Senate Seat (07:22–12:19)
  • Ashley Hinson (R): Incumbent Congresswoman, unopposed Republican nominee.
  • Democratic Primary:

    • Josh Turek:

      • Four-time Paralympian, has spina bifida, notable for perseverance campaigning by crawling up stairs to canvass.
      • Strong national support—$10M from Vote Vets, despite not being a veteran.
      • Emphasizes “hard work, grit, and determination” in ground game.

      “‘How in the world did you get up here?’… I crawled up here, I drugged my wheelchair up here. That’s how important it is to have a conversation with you.”
      — Josh Turek [08:32–08:58]

      • Running as a “prairie populist,” echoing former Senator Tom Harkin—Midwestern economic populism.

    • Zach Walls:

      • Gained fame as a teen for advocating gay marriage rights; maintains a progressive profile.
      • Has Elizabeth Warren’s endorsement but faces attacks for accepting crypto donations and for past party leadership controversies.
      • Competing polls—Turek up 20 points in Turek-leaning polls; Walls led by 18 in his own March poll. Unreliable data but strong vibes for Turek.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Voter Discontent:

  "You've got soybean farmers losing about $75 an acre… Trump's one big beautiful bill kicked nearly 100,000 Iowans off their health insurance."
  — Sarah Longwell [01:17–03:39]

• On Water Contamination:

  “If you don’t want to drink cancer water…We literally installed a reverse osmosis system in our house for drinking water today.”
  — Focus Group Participant [03:39]

• Rob Sand’s Pitch:

  “As governor, I’ll bring back accountability and make jail mandatory for stealing tax dollars.”
  — Rob Sand campaign ad [06:52–07:22]

• Josh Turek’s Campaigning:

  “‘How in the world did you get up here?’ … I crawled up here, I drugged my wheelchair up here. That’s how important it is to have a conversation with you.”
  — Josh Turek [08:32–08:58]

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Important Segments with Timestamps

• [01:17–03:57] — Iowa focus group findings; key issues fueling voter frustration.
• [03:57–06:52] — Governor’s race: key candidates, endorsements, dynamics.
• [06:52–07:22] — Rob Sand campaign message.
• [07:22–08:58] — Senate primary: Josh Turek’s story and campaign.
• [08:58–10:50] — Senate: Zach Walls and dynamics of the Democratic primary.
• [10:50–12:19] — Overall summary, why Iowa is a “watch this space” state for the general election.

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Takeaway

Sarah Longwell concludes that Iowa, once reliably Republican, is now a true battleground due to GOP missteps and strong Democratic organizing and candidates. Both the governor and Senate races are competitive, with economic hardship, social issues, and local scandals alienating voters from the GOP. The Democratic field combines compelling personal narratives with grassroots energy, making Iowa "one to watch" in the 2026 cycle.

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Bottom Line:
Iowa’s traditional red status is threatened by widespread GOP unpopularity, real economic distress, and charismatic Democratic contenders. The upcoming primaries may signal a seismic shift in the state’s political trajectory.

Transcript

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[D]

There's a primary tomorrow in Iowa and I'm extremely excited about it and I want to tell you guys the state of the race as we go into this primary. So we're going to talk about the Senate and governor's race today, but before we do that, let's look at the political landscape right now in Iowa. First of all, we've been conducting focus groups in Iowa, and Iowans are really mad at both Donald Trump and their governor, Kim Reynolds. And the Democrats, for the first time in a long time, are running some really strong races. You got Rob sand, who's running for governor. You've got Josh Turek and Zach Walls who are vying for the Senate, and we're going to find out which one of them will be in the general election after the primaries. And they also have a slate of very strong House candidates. So why are people mad at Kim Reynolds and Donald Trump? Well, number one, this is Iowa and the tariffs are hitting them really hard. Before the tariffs, Donald Trump had a 52% approval rating in the state. Still not super great for Iowa, but he is currently at 42%. Farmers are losing money even with the federal subsidies that are trying to offset the impact of the tariffs. You've got soybean farmers are losing about $75 an acres. Trump's one big beautiful bill kicked nearly 100,000 Iowans off their health insurance. And Reynolds is one of the most unpopular governors Iowa's seen in a while. They had the school vouchers issue that came up in a lot of the focus groups where some schools have had to go down to four days a week because of their school vouchers program. There's a lot of people talking about the six week abortion ban they enacted there in Iowa, which people think is too extreme. And then there's this issue of cancer water, which I had not heard about until I started focus grouping in Iowa. Um, but essentially you've got a lot of chemicals going into the water and a lot of people in Iowa say that they're experiencing these incredibly high cancer rates. So I want to play just a little bit of focus group sound since we have it from some of these Kim Reynolds voters who are currently what I would call sand curious, meaning Rob sand, who is running for governor there. Let's listen to them.

[E]

If you don't want to drink cancer water and you can get these like test strips and check it and the limit is like 10. And we tested ours. We literally installed a reverse osmosis system in our house for drinking water today. My husband installed it today.

[D]

So when you talk about the tariffs, you talk about cancer water. These are the things that are driving down the approval rating of Republicans and have made Iowans very frustrated with Republicans right now. So that takes us to the Iowa governor's race. So Kim Reynolds is not running for reelection. So we've got an open seat there. So in the Republican primary, you have two people really worth talking about. There's Randy Feenstra. He's the Mike Maga establishment candidate. He's currently a member of Congress. You may remember him because he's the guy who replaced very controversial House member there in Iowa, Steve King. And most of the Republican establishment there in the state has endorsed him.

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[D]

So then you've got this guy, Zach Lane and he is the MAHA candidate. He's the kind of guy he's like been going on Tucker. Steve King, who I just mentioned has endorsed him. And remember he was kind of like Steve King was like kind of a white supremacist type. And so he. Most of his money is coming from outside Iowa. And there's been some polling that has shown Lane up a little bit in polling, but it still looks like Randy Feenstraw is likely to pull it out. So on the Democratic side, you've got Rob Sand. Now Rob sand is such an interesting candidate. So he is the state auditor there in the state. He's the only Democrat to hold statewide office in Iowa. He was a public corruption prosecutor for the Attorney general of Iowa before that. And before he went to law school, Rob sand was a male model. So he's handsome. And I think that he's capitalizing on his anti corruption, sort of fiscal conservative, common sense platform that can play in a state like Iowa. Let's watch the ad that he's running right now.

[G]

I'm Rob Sand. Being thrifty is a Sand family tradition that goes back and back and back. That's why as state auditor, I created new efficiency programs to save your tax dollars and uncovered record amounts of misspent tax money. Politicians change the law. Taking away my power to protect your tax money. It's wrong. As governor, I'll bring back accountability and make jail mandatory for stealing tax dollars. You should never be in the dark about your tax money.

[D]

Cook Political Report currently rates this race as a toss up. So that's interesting for Iowa. They've got a toss up for governor. Democrats looking strong now. Let's move to the Senate. So also we have an open Senate seat because Joni Ernst has decided not to run again. There's no Republican primary because Ashley Hinson, who is a sitting member of Congress, she's been there for three terms, she's a former state rep she was also a news anchor in the state. She is the de facto Republican nominee. But the Democrats have kind of an interesting primary. There's two of them. There's Josh Turek, who I think is likely to win, and Zach Walls. Now, Josh Turek, if you haven't, if you don't know who he is or you haven't seen him, he's in a wheelchair. He has spina bifida and he had, his dad had exposure to ancient orange in Vietnam. And he's knocking on doors by pulling himself up step by step. He's also a four time para Olympian, a two time gold medalist. Let's watch his ad.

[H]

Well, Josh, tell us how'd you win that House seat when no one said that was possible?

[I]

The blueprint is hard work, GR and determination. I went out every single day crawling those stairs, knocking doors, dragging my wheelchair up, having face to face conversations with Republicans, with independents, with Democrats. It did not matter. The party. Very first thing they would say is, how in the world did you get up here? And I would say, I crawled up here, I drugged my wheelchair up here. That's how important it is to have a conversation with you.

[F]

Talk about red states and red districts

[D]

and red Senate seats turning blue, look

[H]

no further than Iowa.

[D]

Now, Turek, on top of what is quite a compelling personal story, he's also got $10 million being poured into his race by vote vets, which is interesting because he's not actually a veteran, but there is a lot of money behind him. Now let's get to the next guy, Zach Walls. Now, you might remember Zach Walls the same way that I do because he was, when he was like a teenager, he went to the state house and testified in favor of gay marriage and talked about his two moms. And that made him kind of a viral star at the time. I remember this really well. And I remember because he's an Eagle Scout, he's handsome, and I just remember that being really meaningful when it happened. But he is running very much as the most progressive candidate in this race. He's got Elizabeth Warren's seal of approval. That's tougher, that's a tougher sell there in Iowa than I think what Josh Turek is selling. He's also had some trouble internally at the party. He's gotten some negative press attention for taking crypto money, which Turek has been hitting him with. He also had some when he was a minority leader, he, you know, fired some people and earned himself some bad will. So. Well, I think Turek is going to win Zach Walls has been putting up a serious challenge. Now you've got Walls as the more progressive candidate who comes from a solid Democratic seat and has held leadership positions in the Democratic Party. And so as a result, Turek, even with the support from the national groups that he's getting, he's still able to run as more of an outsider candidate, which people are calling the way he's running, a prairie populist, which is something the last Democrat to hold the seat, Tom Harkin, he was known for that same thing, this idea of being a prairie populist and effectively fighting for economic populism, but with kind of a Midwest flair. Now, Turk's been up by about 20 points since the end of April in polling sponsored by him and supporters of him. Walls hasn't released a poll since the end of March in which he had himself up by 18 points. So it's been tough to get super reliable polling in the race. But just based on pure vibes, I think Turek has a bit of an edge here. So to recap, Trump and Reynolds, both bad, both in negative territory with voters. You've got the national environment, obviously much better for Democrats, and the Democrats in Iowa are actually playing to win right now. So bottom line, you've got the negative national environment for Republicans, you've got the negative Iowa environment for Republicans, and you have some pretty formidable Democratic candidates. And so this is one that I am watching closely and that maybe you haven't been paying enough attention to. But I think now that you've listened to this, I think you're going to start watching it because it's going to be a very interesting race when we get to the general election. And so that, my friends, is the state of the race in Iowa.

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