Bulwark Takes – “Why Trump’s Numbers Keep Getting Worse”

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: November 23, 2025
Host: Jack Coccharella
Guest: Sam Stein (and clips with Scott Bessant)

Overview

This episode dives into the recent steady decline in Donald Trump’s polling numbers, focusing on economic discontent, public skepticism about the administration’s messaging, and awkward attempts at economic justifications—especially around tariffs and inflation. Jack Coccharella and Sam Stein break down what’s fueling Trump’s worsening numbers, how the White House is (poorly) responding, and why disconnects with American daily life are now politically disastrous.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Sliding Poll Numbers

• Incremental, Cumulative Drop:
  Sam Stein highlights that Trump’s poll numbers are declining steadily, not in dramatic swings but in a grinding, sustained downtrend.

  • “It kind of has a very steady drop. It's not like… a roller coaster dive. It's just going down… incrementally.” (Sam Stein, 00:59)

• Public Perception:
  Trump’s reaction—particularly via “Truth Social”—has been increasingly frantic, a sign of political panic.

  • “His response to those polls has been like an astronomically greater freak out… the truth social tirades have gotten a little worse.” (Jack Coccharella, 01:13)

2. Polls on War and The Economy

• CBS News Poll—Venezuela & Military Action:

  • Only 30% favor US military action in Venezuela.
  • Most Americans say the administration hasn’t explained its intentions clearly.
  • Even supporters are craving clarity and leadership.
  • “Big majority say the administration needs to explain… and that it has not done so clearly yet.” (Jack Coccharella, 01:44)

• Inflation and Economic Perceptions:

  • People sense inflation is up, and Trump’s administration isn’t perceived as responsive.
  • Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy dropped from 51% (March 2) to 36% (recently):
    • “That’s like Biden bad territory.” (Sam Stein, 03:15)
  • In some polls, as many as 76% say the economy is going in the wrong direction under Trump.

3. Trump’s Economic Messaging is Backfiring

• Public Skepticism:

  • “Trump makes things sound better than they really are”— 60% think Trump is misrepresenting reality.
  • Only 27% of people believe Trump’s claims are accurate.
  • “He’s saying things are good. They are not good. He's making them sound good. My lived experience is not good.” (Sam Stein, 03:37)

• Classic Political Mistake:

  • “The worst thing a politician can do is to talk up how good a recovery is going… you look so detached and out of touch.” (Sam Stein, 04:10)
  • Trump is perceived as ignoring people’s real struggles, just “in a bubble.”

• Vague Solutions, No Clear Messaging:

  • J.D. Vance and others tell Americans to “be patient,” but no clear plan is offered.
    • “It's funny for Vance to say, ‘be patient, we'll explain,’ when they just will never explain. It's a weird thing to promise.” (Jack Coccharella, 05:53)

• Mixed Messages:

  • The administration alternates between claiming “things are great” and asking for time to fix problems, undermining credibility.
  • “You can say, we're working on it, be patient. But then you can't say, things are gangbusters. Great, right?” (Sam Stein, 06:05)

4. Scott Bessant’s Wild Analogies & The Tariff Mess

• Cringeworthy TV Moments:

  • On Meet the Press, Scott Bessant is pressed about inflation and says:
    • “Chris, how much does your arm weigh?” ([07:09])
  • Attempts to dodge questions about price hikes with analogies and charm, but comes off awkward and condescending.
  • “I don't think asking a female anchor how much your arm weighs and then saying you get on the scale every day… it just seems kind of like out of touch.” (Sam Stein, 08:07)

• Fact-checks and Contradictions:

  • Claims about falling energy prices are false; data shows recent increases.
    • “National average price of Gasoline… is 3.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.” (Sam Stein citing GasBuddy, 08:52)
  • Attempts to claim grocery prices are dropping are also challenged with real statistics.
    • “If you eat less, it’s going to cost you less. So America, go out there and starve.” (Jack Coccharella, 09:21)

• Tariff Nonsense—The Banana Clip:

  • Bessant’s attempt to explain tariffs on bananas becomes comical:
    • “We cannot build bananas in America. So we’re not making bananas here. And I don’t think we’re ever going to anytime soon.” (Jack Coccharella, 14:22)
  • “Maybe we can get some AI generated banana production in America at some point and all our problems will be solved.” (Sam Stein, 14:32)

5. Economic Consequences and Policy Gaps

• Stock Market Reality:

  • The rally is narrowly benefiting a few high-flying stocks, not the general public.
  • “He's like, well, a very small number of people are benefiting because your electrical costs are going up, but they're not going up, but groceries are down, but they're not… all of it put together is… we have traded all of the wealth… from the bottom 50% of Americans to the 0.1%.” (Jack Coccharella, 11:01)

• Cost Pressures & Political Fallout:

  • Extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies is uncertain, and healthcare premiums may rise.
  • Trump’s suggested “tariff rebate checks” aren’t gaining traction.
  • “People are going to freak that their bills are just going up when he promised that they would be halved. Halved when he took office.” (Sam Stein, 11:43)

• Medicare for All Riff:

  • Brief joking speculation about whether Trump will pivot to support single-payer health care.
    • “After his time was Iran. Do you not think he's going to do Medicare for all?” (Jack Coccharella, 12:23)

6. Personality Politics & Flattery

• Trump’s Thin-Skinned Favoritism:
  • “Nothing is permanent with Trump… a little bit of flattery gets you a long way with a guy. I think he really is non confrontational in person.” (Sam Stein, 12:39)
  • Trump likes telegenic, “winner” types like Mamdani, and turns quickly on others based on personal feeling—not loyalty or principle.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “I need to meet that person that could be like Bill Ackman.”
  (Sam Stein, joking about the 13% who think Trump is underselling economic optimism, 04:08)

• Scott Bessant’s “How much does your arm weigh?”
  (07:09)
  [As an answer about inflation components, this becomes a recurring joke throughout the episode.]

• “If you eat less, it’s going to cost you less. So America, go out there and starve.”
  (Jack Coccharella, mocking weak grocery inflation arguments, 09:21)

• “Maybe we can get some AI generated banana production in America at some point and all our problems will be solved.”
  (Sam Stein, 14:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:49: Show start, topic introduction: Trump’s poll drop
• 02:13: CBS News poll results (Venezuela & economy)
• 03:37: Breakdown of public skepticism about Trump’s rosy messaging
• 05:53: Incoherence in Team Trump’s economic explanations
• 06:57: Scott Bessant’s “arm weight” analogy on inflation
• 08:52: Fact-checks: energy prices and administration claims
• 09:21: Grocery prices and “just eat less” snark
• 11:01: The wealth gap, AI, and stock market debate
• 11:43: Political fallout as costs rise and policy promises falter
• 14:04: The great “banana tariff” clip
• 14:32: AI bananas as a punchline

Tone and Language

• The discussion is fast-paced, irreverent, and satirical, mixing policy substance with humor and direct critique. Hosts jab at political spin, highlight media awkwardness, and regularly punctuate analysis with memorable, often sarcastic commentary.

Conclusion

This episode of Bulwark Takes vividly captures why Trump’s numbers are sinking: a disconnect between political messaging and everyday American life, inept official defenses, and consistent, tangible economic pain that even the most skilled spin—or the most bizarre analogies—can’t conceal. For listeners, it’s a blistering, insightful ride through the intersection of polls, policy, and personality in 2025.