Why Trump’s Numbers Keep Getting Worse

Summary

Bulwark Takes – “Why Trump’s Numbers Keep Getting Worse”

Podcast: Bulwark Takes
Date: November 23, 2025
Host: Jack Coccharella
Guest: Sam Stein (and clips with Scott Bessant)

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Overview

This episode dives into the recent steady decline in Donald Trump’s polling numbers, focusing on economic discontent, public skepticism about the administration’s messaging, and awkward attempts at economic justifications—especially around tariffs and inflation. Jack Coccharella and Sam Stein break down what’s fueling Trump’s worsening numbers, how the White House is (poorly) responding, and why disconnects with American daily life are now politically disastrous.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Trump’s Sliding Poll Numbers

• Incremental, Cumulative Drop:
  Sam Stein highlights that Trump’s poll numbers are declining steadily, not in dramatic swings but in a grinding, sustained downtrend.

  • “It kind of has a very steady drop. It's not like… a roller coaster dive. It's just going down… incrementally.” (Sam Stein, 00:59)

• Public Perception:
  Trump’s reaction—particularly via “Truth Social”—has been increasingly frantic, a sign of political panic.

  • “His response to those polls has been like an astronomically greater freak out… the truth social tirades have gotten a little worse.” (Jack Coccharella, 01:13)

2. Polls on War and The Economy

• CBS News Poll—Venezuela & Military Action:

  • Only 30% favor US military action in Venezuela.
  • Most Americans say the administration hasn’t explained its intentions clearly.
  • Even supporters are craving clarity and leadership.
  • “Big majority say the administration needs to explain… and that it has not done so clearly yet.” (Jack Coccharella, 01:44)

• Inflation and Economic Perceptions:

  • People sense inflation is up, and Trump’s administration isn’t perceived as responsive.
  • Approval of Trump’s handling of the economy dropped from 51% (March 2) to 36% (recently):
    • “That’s like Biden bad territory.” (Sam Stein, 03:15)
  • In some polls, as many as 76% say the economy is going in the wrong direction under Trump.

3. Trump’s Economic Messaging is Backfiring

• Public Skepticism:

  • “Trump makes things sound better than they really are”— 60% think Trump is misrepresenting reality.
  • Only 27% of people believe Trump’s claims are accurate.
  • “He’s saying things are good. They are not good. He's making them sound good. My lived experience is not good.” (Sam Stein, 03:37)

• Classic Political Mistake:

  • “The worst thing a politician can do is to talk up how good a recovery is going… you look so detached and out of touch.” (Sam Stein, 04:10)
  • Trump is perceived as ignoring people’s real struggles, just “in a bubble.”

• Vague Solutions, No Clear Messaging:

  • J.D. Vance and others tell Americans to “be patient,” but no clear plan is offered.
    • “It's funny for Vance to say, ‘be patient, we'll explain,’ when they just will never explain. It's a weird thing to promise.” (Jack Coccharella, 05:53)

• Mixed Messages:

  • The administration alternates between claiming “things are great” and asking for time to fix problems, undermining credibility.
  • “You can say, we're working on it, be patient. But then you can't say, things are gangbusters. Great, right?” (Sam Stein, 06:05)

4. Scott Bessant’s Wild Analogies & The Tariff Mess

• Cringeworthy TV Moments:

  • On Meet the Press, Scott Bessant is pressed about inflation and says:
    • “Chris, how much does your arm weigh?” ([07:09])
  • Attempts to dodge questions about price hikes with analogies and charm, but comes off awkward and condescending.
  • “I don't think asking a female anchor how much your arm weighs and then saying you get on the scale every day… it just seems kind of like out of touch.” (Sam Stein, 08:07)

• Fact-checks and Contradictions:

  • Claims about falling energy prices are false; data shows recent increases.
    • “National average price of Gasoline… is 3.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.” (Sam Stein citing GasBuddy, 08:52)
  • Attempts to claim grocery prices are dropping are also challenged with real statistics.
    • “If you eat less, it’s going to cost you less. So America, go out there and starve.” (Jack Coccharella, 09:21)

• Tariff Nonsense—The Banana Clip:

  • Bessant’s attempt to explain tariffs on bananas becomes comical:
    • “We cannot build bananas in America. So we’re not making bananas here. And I don’t think we’re ever going to anytime soon.” (Jack Coccharella, 14:22)
  • “Maybe we can get some AI generated banana production in America at some point and all our problems will be solved.” (Sam Stein, 14:32)

5. Economic Consequences and Policy Gaps

• Stock Market Reality:

  • The rally is narrowly benefiting a few high-flying stocks, not the general public.
  • “He's like, well, a very small number of people are benefiting because your electrical costs are going up, but they're not going up, but groceries are down, but they're not… all of it put together is… we have traded all of the wealth… from the bottom 50% of Americans to the 0.1%.” (Jack Coccharella, 11:01)

• Cost Pressures & Political Fallout:

  • Extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies is uncertain, and healthcare premiums may rise.
  • Trump’s suggested “tariff rebate checks” aren’t gaining traction.
  • “People are going to freak that their bills are just going up when he promised that they would be halved. Halved when he took office.” (Sam Stein, 11:43)

• Medicare for All Riff:

  • Brief joking speculation about whether Trump will pivot to support single-payer health care.
    • “After his time was Iran. Do you not think he's going to do Medicare for all?” (Jack Coccharella, 12:23)

6. Personality Politics & Flattery

• Trump’s Thin-Skinned Favoritism:
  • “Nothing is permanent with Trump… a little bit of flattery gets you a long way with a guy. I think he really is non confrontational in person.” (Sam Stein, 12:39)
  • Trump likes telegenic, “winner” types like Mamdani, and turns quickly on others based on personal feeling—not loyalty or principle.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• “I need to meet that person that could be like Bill Ackman.”
  (Sam Stein, joking about the 13% who think Trump is underselling economic optimism, 04:08)

• Scott Bessant’s “How much does your arm weigh?”
  (07:09)
  [As an answer about inflation components, this becomes a recurring joke throughout the episode.]

• “If you eat less, it’s going to cost you less. So America, go out there and starve.”
  (Jack Coccharella, mocking weak grocery inflation arguments, 09:21)

• “Maybe we can get some AI generated banana production in America at some point and all our problems will be solved.”
  (Sam Stein, 14:32)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:49: Show start, topic introduction: Trump’s poll drop
• 02:13: CBS News poll results (Venezuela & economy)
• 03:37: Breakdown of public skepticism about Trump’s rosy messaging
• 05:53: Incoherence in Team Trump’s economic explanations
• 06:57: Scott Bessant’s “arm weight” analogy on inflation
• 08:52: Fact-checks: energy prices and administration claims
• 09:21: Grocery prices and “just eat less” snark
• 11:01: The wealth gap, AI, and stock market debate
• 11:43: Political fallout as costs rise and policy promises falter
• 14:04: The great “banana tariff” clip
• 14:32: AI bananas as a punchline

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Tone and Language

• The discussion is fast-paced, irreverent, and satirical, mixing policy substance with humor and direct critique. Hosts jab at political spin, highlight media awkwardness, and regularly punctuate analysis with memorable, often sarcastic commentary.

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Conclusion

This episode of Bulwark Takes vividly captures why Trump’s numbers are sinking: a disconnect between political messaging and everyday American life, inept official defenses, and consistent, tangible economic pain that even the most skilled spin—or the most bizarre analogies—can’t conceal. For listeners, it’s a blistering, insightful ride through the intersection of polls, policy, and personality in 2025.

Transcript

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[C]

Numbers don't lie. And so Donald Trump is trying to hide all of them. I'm Jack Cocherella, joined today by Sam Stein and Sam, does it look like Donald Trump's polls are getting better or worse to you?

[B]

Worse. Like they kind of have a very steady drop. It's not like it hasn't been like a, like a roller coaster dive. It's just going down like that. It's like incrementally. But the cumulative worse, it's, it's fairly evident. Yeah.

[C]

I think though, his response to those polls has been like an astronomically greater freak out because the truth social tirades have gotten a little worse. But there are two main polls that just came out recently that really show how Trump is down in the dumps, both economically and I guess almost technically on the war front that I want to get into. Scott Bessant is also trying to defend those numbers. We got a lot to talk about, but I want to get in these polls first. CBS News poll finds most would oppose US Military action in Venezuela, say Trump hasn't explained. That's a shocker. The situation around Venezuela has Americans asking to know more across party lines. Big majority say the administration needs to explain why what the US Intends regarding any action and that it has not done so clearly yet. Meanwhile, what Americans hear from the White House about inflation is, they say, not what they're actually feeling at home. What a surprise. Rising prices and worsening economic views. And in terms of taking US military action in Venezuela, only 30% are in favor of that, according to this new CBS poll.

[B]

All right, here's my hot take. The Venezuela numbers are bad, but like, I don't think they're going to matter materially for Trump. I think people are tuning a lot of that stuff out, obviously, I think it's. It would be problematic for him to go to war with Venezuela on a humanitarian, geopolitical, and political level. But it's the inflation numbers in that poll that really sort of stood out to me. So this is the whole reason for his election? Well, not the whole reason, but a huge reason. Right. It's like, cost of living is up. Biden's doing jack shit about it. Elect me. I'm going to bring all that stuff down. And it's not going down. And we'll get into the actual economics in a little bit. But these poll numbers, there's two things that really stood out for me. One was the handling of the economy. Okay, so CBS does this thing, approval of Trump's handling the economy. March 2, it's at 51% approval. Okay. He's a couple months in. People are giving him the benefit of the doubt. Things are looking good again. The steady decline. It goes to 44, 42, 40. A little tick up to 41, 40, 38. It's 36 approval now. That's like Biden bad territory.

[C]

It's worse than Biden because what was worse, the Biden number was like 70% of people that the economy is going in the wrong direction with Trump, it's now up to, I think it was 76 and one number. And then there's the CNN poll when he's like minus 41 with independence. And it's funny because they are doing the same Biden justification where it's like, look at the stock market. Things are getting better. Things are okay.

[B]

That's what I want to get to. This is the most fundamentally interesting question. Trump makes things sound better than they really are. 60%, okay? So three out of every five people are saying Trump is speaking in a way that is totally foreign to me. He's saying things are good. They are not good. He's making them sound good. My lived experience is not good. Only 27% say Trump is saying things about as they really are. 13% think he's underselling how great things are. I don't know who those 13% are.

[C]

That's a great group. I want to talk.

[B]

I need to meet that person that could be like Bill Ackman. All right, so here's why I think this matters. There's this old, like, you know, conviction in politics, especially in Democratic politics, that the worst thing a politician can do is to talk up how good a recovery is going. And the reason why is because you look so detached and out of touch. People who are not feeling a recovery. Think you are, you know, not paying attention to their plight. Think that you're ignoring them. Think again, that you're in a bubble and they feel disconnected from you. We're not even in a recovery. We are in a shaky economy at best. Trump's talking it up as if it's the greatest economy on earth. And all these people are there being like, what is he talking about? He's really risking alienating a huge swath of voters. It's almost worse, maybe worse than the rating that he gets for his handling of the economy, in my estimation.

[C]

And what was interesting to me is that when you're, you're talking about, like, just take a look at the Venezuela of it all, it's like, Trump isn't explaining why we would be going to war with Venezuela. But that's a similar question asked about the economic numbers, where it's like, Trump isn't explaining what he's doing to combat inflation, which is funny when J.D. vance says, like, okay, you need to be patient. We're working on it. It's going to take a little bit of time for every American to feel that economic boom, which we really do believe is coming. Donald Trump is the most omnipresent cultural figure in, like, American history. I don't know. And so if he and his constant barrage of posts and messaging and isn't explaining what their economic message is, then people aren't, like, looking for it and not getting it. He's just not delivering it, obviously, which is much different than the Biden issue when he just wasn't out and about enough and nobody saw him. So it's funny for Vance to say, like, be patient, will explain when they just will never explain. It's a weird thing to promise.

[B]

True. And I would add to that that they're not really consistent messaging.

[C]

Right?

[B]

Like, so you can say, we're working on it, be patient. But then you can't say, things are gangbusters. Great, right? Like, it's either one or the other. So, like, if the stock market has a great day and you say, this is the Trump economy, you can't then turn around and say, you know what? It's the Biden economy, because we're still working on getting, you know, back to what he had done to us. And look, it's difficult. I'm not sitting here saying, like, it's. It's easy to explain this stuff. Obviously, if it were easy, people would, you know, no incumbent would ever lose. Right. It's hard when your policies contribute to this Stuff. So inflation has obviously been caused by the terrorists. Otherwise they wouldn't be rolling them back on food products. But then you have messengers like Scott Bessant who goes out and says weird stuff. I Meet the Press like he did this morning. Play. Let's play the clip with him and Kristen Welker where she's saying, why are, you know, why is inflation still up? And he has some weird analog army.

[C]

Well, and banana prices are up almost 7%, coffee prices up nearly 19%.

[A]

Isn't the fact that you're rolling back tariffs in admission that ultimately they do.

[C]

Drive up prices for consumers?

[D]

Chris, how much does your arm weigh?

[A]

That I.

[D]

Exactly. But you know, how much you weigh. You get on the scale every morning. Inflation is a composite number and we look at everything. So we are trying, we try to push down the things we can control. And, and as I said that we are working on the energy prices are down and everything flows from that. And I think we're going to see these other prices come down. And again, many of these goods were part of trade deals with countries that have been in the works for months.

[B]

I mean, like, what. It just doesn't make sense. How much is your arm weigh?

[C]

I love that. He's like, do you know what I'm going to do? Going to bring out the besant charm. Like, this is like the most like, rigid guy in the world who just like kind of sounds like he's about to take a breath before every. It's kind of like choppy. And he's like, you know, I'm just going to lay on that southern that best. Is he from, from the great state of Louisiana or is he a South Carolina guy?

[B]

So I think he's. I think he's South Carolina, but I don't think, I don't think asking a female anchor how much you, your arm weighs and then saying you get on the scale every day. Right. I don't know, it just seems kind of like out of touch. Yeah, it's so also, let me just add this, Jack, he's wrong. Like, he's just wrong about energy prices. Look, it's hard to say definitively energy prices where they stand because it varies by state, for instance, and there's different forms of energy. But look, I mean, energy prices, I'm just pulling up this Yahoo article from like nine days ago. They are not down. And here's gas buddy a couple of days ago. Who looks at the cost of gasoline? Obviously, this is from the 22nd. So this is from Saturday. National average price of Gasoline today is 3.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.

[C]

Well, Sam, do you remember who told us last week that the price of energy was up? It was Scott Bessant who is upset with Mikey Sherrill about the cost of energy being up in New Jersey.

[D]

What I would respond to is electricity prices are a state problem. And you know, I was very interested to see in the earlier clip where the governor, the governor elect of New Jersey said, well, I'm going to bring down energy prices. Well, it was her predecessor, Phil, Phil Murphy, who took him up.

[C]

My favorite part about that clip is him saying like, well, grocery prices are going down. If you look at so energy is going to go down. Like he didn't even come prepared with the talking point about like the Thanksgiving whatever meal basket that they keep bringing up that has lost like half of the items in it, which is just like such a funny thing to say. It's like, hey, when you eat less, it's going to cost you less. So America, go out there and starve. You'll save a couple of bucks, exercise more, eat less.

[D]

So we're going to grow more, spend less or constrain spending.

[C]

That with the Kristen Welker get on the scale thing, I think Scott Besant is like advocating for dieting. He just wants everyone to be nice and lean. But he didn't even come with the talking points. That's my favorite part.

[B]

And this is the thing. Okay, so the Yahoo piece says at the end of August 2025, residential electricity prices jumped 6.2% compared to the last 12 months per the U.S. bureau of Labor Statistics. Again, I don't want to like overstate it because there's no each state has different energy issues and they're going to have to deal with them separately. But this gets to my original point. You can't tell people, hey, energy's down when they're, they know they're paying more, a little bit more at the pump or they know that their electricity bills are actually elevated. You can't tell them things are going great when they don't feel it and they don't see it. You know, who knows this? The Biden freaking White House, they tried doing this and they understood that it's impossible to sell people a bag of goods and say, you know what, you should be grateful for it. And I just think the Trump White House is in trouble, real trouble for this stuff.

[C]

Well, it also is funny as there's this increasing recognition that these AI data centers are just like all of this storage capacity is what's driving up people's.

[B]

Electrical costs in some states, not in all states, but in some, not in all states.

[C]

But you do have Trump out there saying like the stock market is exploding because of only seven stocks that are exploding because of kind of this AI bubble has been created by raising your energy costs to make these stock prices artificially inflated, which serves a very small and like getting smaller portion of Americans who actually have skin in the game in the stock market. So he's like, well, a very small number of people are benefiting because your electrical costs are going up, but they're not going up, but groceries are down, but they're not the stock market. And so all of it put together is just like we have traded all of the wealth that we can possibly collect from the bottom 50% of Americans to the 0.1% and now we're going to lie about it. It's a great economic theory. Good job.

[B]

And then on top of that, you add to the likely rise in premiums that are going to come because the Affordable Care extended subsidies are expiring. And it's, it's a real bad situation. You can tell because a bunch of congressional Republicans are looking for ways to get ahead of this. Trump's not signed off on this stuff yet. But I, you could see a situation down the road where he does realize he's got to figure out a way. I mean, he's floated this idea of a tar rebate check. That's not really getting any traction. I'm surprised he's not more open to extending the subsidies. We'll see if he, you know, lessens his opposition to that because at some point people are going to freak that their bills are just going up when he promised that they would be halved. Halved when he took office.

[C]

Well, after his time was Iran. Do you not think he's going to do Medicare for all? He's been talking about it.

[B]

Maybe he's all right, maybe mom dying to convince him of that.

[C]

What was your takeaway from that? I know you talked about it a little bit already.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, I think.

[C]

You think it sits with Trump. Do you think this love fest continues or is he going to try to pull back?

[B]

No, nothing, nothing is permanent with Trump. Come on, he was, you know, he chair, he turns on anybody and everybody. But I do think it's very evident that a little bit of flattery gets you a long way with a guy. I think he really is non confrontational in person. He's perfectly confrontational online. And look, I think he, he's a superficial dude. He thinks mom Donnie is a winner. Mamdani is a good looking guy who, you know, had a nice big victory in Manhattan and talks good game and is very telegenic and is good on tv and I think Trump really likes that stuff and it doesn't really take much more to get on his good side.

[C]

So it doesn't, it's, it's pretty funny and it's pretty funny again that the Scott Bessant a little less telegenic defense of the tariffs as they're, as they're pulling them back. I wanted to talk a little bit more about tariffs but before we did I wanted to play the greatest tariff clip of all time. Scott Besson is talking about bananas because we just have to see it as much as we possibly can.

[B]

Absolutely.

[C]

What's the tariff on bananas? Americans, by the way, love bananas. We buy billions of them a year. I love bananas. What's the tariff on bananas?

[B]

The tariff on bananas would be representative of the countries that produce them.

[C]

And what's that tariff generally?

[B]

10%.

[C]

Correct, 10%. Walmart has already increased the cost of bananas by 8%.

[B]

Recognizable as countries do deals with us that will go to zero as countries do deals with us on the American.

[C]

Consumer now and on the businesses with the confusion now. Mr. Secretary, I believe you know better.

[B]

There's no uncertainty. If you build in America and you produce your product in America, there will be no tariff. We can't be building in America and pay no tariff. Is very, very clear.

[C]

We cannot build bananas in America. So we're not making bananas here. And I don't think we're ever going to anytime soon. But maybe if Scott Besant is weighing arms then he can.

[B]

I don't know, man. Maybe we can get some AI generated banana production in America at some point and all our problems will be solved. That's what I'm hoping for.

[C]

It's worth raising my electrical bills by 50% if we can get those. AI banana pays off.

[B]

It pays off with cheaper bananas down the road.

[C]

What were the digital tokens? Oh God, how am I forgetting those that people trade in? The AI bullshit. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. But on that note, on our problems being solved by AI Sam, thanks for joining me as always, man.

[B]

Jack, you're the man. Appreciate it.

[A]

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