Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode Title: Will the Shutdown Deal Actually Hold?
Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Sam Stein
Guest: Joe Peron

Overview

This Bulwark Takes episode, hosted by Sam Stein (Managing Editor at The Bulwark) and featuring Joe Peron (Capitol Hill reporter, Press Pass newsletter), dives into the late-breaking Senate deal to end what is now the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Stein and Peron analyze the details of the proposed agreement, the fractious Democratic support, potential consequences for both parties, and the real stakes involved—including whether the deal can actually hold. They bring insider knowledge and sharp analysis about the political calculus behind the scenes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Developments: The Senate Deal

• Senate Deal Details:

  • Brokered by a mix of centrist Democrats (Angus King, Jean Shaheen, Maggie Hassan).
  • Continuing Resolution (CR): Extends government funding through January 30, setting up a replay in two months.
  • Vote on ACA Subsidies: Democrats secured a vote (not guaranteed passage) in December on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, their core ask ([01:17]-[02:07]).
  • “Minibus” Measures: Includes funding reversals, back pay, protections against future shutdown effects, and SNAP (food assistance) funding through FY2026.

• Political Landscape:

  • Democratic Supporters: King, Hassan, Shaheen, Cortez Masto, Tim Kaine, John Fetterman ([03:05]).
  • Democratic Opponents: Chuck Schumer, Brian Schatz, JB Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Reuben Gallego, Chris Coons, Mark Kelly, Tammy Baldwin ([03:05]-[03:58]).
  • Notably: Many 2028 presidential hopefuls rapidly denounced the deal.

2. The Case Against the Deal

Sam Stein lays out the base critiques:

• Primary objective was extending Obamacare (ACA) subsidies. Democrats have only secured a promised vote “with no guarantees” ([05:06]).
• Concerns over lack of limits on administrative impoundments and rescissions ([05:31]).
• Optics problem: “You just won an off-year election convincingly by pounding them on this issue, and the base finally... can fight for us. Then to turn around in a week... is absolutely demoralizing.” ([05:50])
• Peron’s take: “There are no winners in a government shutdown. There are only losers and survivors. And this is the survival move.” ([06:21])

3. The Case For the Deal

Sam Stein’s rebuttal and silver linings:

• Rehiring Fired Employees: Immediate benefit to federal workers ([06:31]).
• RIFT Protections: Safeguards against indiscriminate firing hold if shutdown resumes ([06:37]).
• SNAP Funding Secured: Ensures aid continuity even if the government closes again in January ([07:14]).
• Political Positioning: Shifts blame for rising healthcare costs/premium hikes onto Trump and House Republicans ([07:48]).
• Peron: December ACA vote will hand the problem directly to House Republicans, making it an issue in every House race ([08:12]).

4. Long-Term Political Impact: Will It Matter?

• Never Precedent for Victory: Party demanding a grand policy concession in a shutdown “never” wins.
  • Sam Stein: “When’s the last time the party demanding a policy concession in a shutdown got the policy concession?”
  • Joe Peron: “Never.” ([09:13])
• Historical Parallel: 2013 Shutdown over Obamacare didn't hurt the GOP because subsequent events shifted attention ([09:16]-[09:37]).
• Voter Perception: Most Americans will blame the president and majority party, regardless of nuance ([10:19]).

5. Democratic Base Reaction

• Anger Will Be Real, But Diffuse:
  • Stein: Some base “will be apoplectic,” but anger may lack a clear target due to supporting Senators either retiring or little-known ([11:00]-[11:48]).
  • Peron: “...if there’s anger, it’s not...I don’t think it actually does much...the base is more chill...because the people they're going to be disappointed in, they don’t like John Fetterman, they don’t know or care about Angus King.” ([11:24]-[11:48])

6. Procedural and Future Outlook

• Whip Count Update: 58 Senators in favor, need 60 ([11:56]).

• House Passage in Question: Debate over whether Speaker Mike Johnson will allow a vote, or whether Trump and his circle will derail it ([12:54]-[13:49]).

  • Peron: “He does not bend to what might be good or popular. He’s just doing what Trump wants…” ([12:54]).

• White House Cooperation Likely: Need for White House to be looped in ([14:03]).

• Bottom line: Possible shutdown end in days, but likely to repeat drama in January ([14:28]-[14:34]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“There are no winners in a government shutdown. There are only losers and survivors. And this is the survival move.”
— Joe Peron [06:21]

“You just won an off-year election convincingly by pounding them on this issue...Then to turn around in a week and be like, actually nah, we’re going to give in on this one is absolutely demoralizing.”
— Sam Stein [05:50]

“When’s the last time the party demanding a policy concession in a shutdown got the policy concession?”
“Never.”
— Sam Stein & Joe Peron [09:13]

“If there’s anger, it’s not...the base is more chill about this because the people they’re going to be disappointed in, they don’t like John Fetterman, they don’t know or care about Angus King.”
— Joe Peron [11:24]

“Mike Johnson has shown time and time again...he does not bend to what might be good or popular. He’s just doing what Trump wants.”
— Joe Peron [12:54]

Important Segment Timestamps

• Deal Details Unpacked: [01:17] – [02:37]
• List of Senate Support/Opposition: [03:05] – [03:58]
• Case Against the Deal: [05:06] – [06:21]
• Case For the Deal: [06:31] – [08:12]
• Historic Precedent/Shutdowns Don’t Work: [09:00] – [09:37]
• Base Reaction Dynamics: [11:00] – [11:48]
• Whip Count/House Politics: [11:56] – [14:03]
• Shutdown Déjà Vu: [14:28] – [14:46]

Tone & Style

Conversational, analytical, sometimes wry. Sam Stein and Joe Peron blend inside-the-Beltway knowledge with raw skepticism about the political system’s incentives, repeatedly highlighting the cyclical, performative nature of shutdown brinkmanship. Their tone is candid, occasionally darkly humorous about the state of U.S. legislative politics.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you want a crisp, insider’s recap of Congress’s latest wild night and whether the shutdown fix will stick, this episode offers clear breakdowns of what’s on the table, who stands where, and why this is probably just an intermission before political gridlock repeats in January. Stein and Peron don’t sugarcoat the frustration on the left nor the structural incentives pushing Washington toward more of the same.

Summary prepared by Bulwark Takes AI Recap