Will the Shutdown Deal Actually Hold?

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: Bulwark Takes

Episode Title: Will the Shutdown Deal Actually Hold?
Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Sam Stein
Guest: Joe Peron

---

Overview

This Bulwark Takes episode, hosted by Sam Stein (Managing Editor at The Bulwark) and featuring Joe Peron (Capitol Hill reporter, Press Pass newsletter), dives into the late-breaking Senate deal to end what is now the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Stein and Peron analyze the details of the proposed agreement, the fractious Democratic support, potential consequences for both parties, and the real stakes involved—including whether the deal can actually hold. They bring insider knowledge and sharp analysis about the political calculus behind the scenes.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Latest Developments: The Senate Deal

• Senate Deal Details:

  • Brokered by a mix of centrist Democrats (Angus King, Jean Shaheen, Maggie Hassan).
  • Continuing Resolution (CR): Extends government funding through January 30, setting up a replay in two months.
  • Vote on ACA Subsidies: Democrats secured a vote (not guaranteed passage) in December on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies, their core ask ([01:17]-[02:07]).
  • “Minibus” Measures: Includes funding reversals, back pay, protections against future shutdown effects, and SNAP (food assistance) funding through FY2026.

• Political Landscape:

  • Democratic Supporters: King, Hassan, Shaheen, Cortez Masto, Tim Kaine, John Fetterman ([03:05]).
  • Democratic Opponents: Chuck Schumer, Brian Schatz, JB Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Reuben Gallego, Chris Coons, Mark Kelly, Tammy Baldwin ([03:05]-[03:58]).
  • Notably: Many 2028 presidential hopefuls rapidly denounced the deal.

2. The Case Against the Deal

Sam Stein lays out the base critiques:

• Primary objective was extending Obamacare (ACA) subsidies. Democrats have only secured a promised vote “with no guarantees” ([05:06]).
• Concerns over lack of limits on administrative impoundments and rescissions ([05:31]).
• Optics problem: “You just won an off-year election convincingly by pounding them on this issue, and the base finally... can fight for us. Then to turn around in a week... is absolutely demoralizing.” ([05:50])
• Peron’s take: “There are no winners in a government shutdown. There are only losers and survivors. And this is the survival move.” ([06:21])

3. The Case For the Deal

Sam Stein’s rebuttal and silver linings:

• Rehiring Fired Employees: Immediate benefit to federal workers ([06:31]).
• RIFT Protections: Safeguards against indiscriminate firing hold if shutdown resumes ([06:37]).
• SNAP Funding Secured: Ensures aid continuity even if the government closes again in January ([07:14]).
• Political Positioning: Shifts blame for rising healthcare costs/premium hikes onto Trump and House Republicans ([07:48]).
• Peron: December ACA vote will hand the problem directly to House Republicans, making it an issue in every House race ([08:12]).

4. Long-Term Political Impact: Will It Matter?

• Never Precedent for Victory: Party demanding a grand policy concession in a shutdown “never” wins.
  • Sam Stein: “When’s the last time the party demanding a policy concession in a shutdown got the policy concession?”
  • Joe Peron: “Never.” ([09:13])
• Historical Parallel: 2013 Shutdown over Obamacare didn't hurt the GOP because subsequent events shifted attention ([09:16]-[09:37]).
• Voter Perception: Most Americans will blame the president and majority party, regardless of nuance ([10:19]).

5. Democratic Base Reaction

• Anger Will Be Real, But Diffuse:
  • Stein: Some base “will be apoplectic,” but anger may lack a clear target due to supporting Senators either retiring or little-known ([11:00]-[11:48]).
  • Peron: “...if there’s anger, it’s not...I don’t think it actually does much...the base is more chill...because the people they're going to be disappointed in, they don’t like John Fetterman, they don’t know or care about Angus King.” ([11:24]-[11:48])

6. Procedural and Future Outlook

• Whip Count Update: 58 Senators in favor, need 60 ([11:56]).

• House Passage in Question: Debate over whether Speaker Mike Johnson will allow a vote, or whether Trump and his circle will derail it ([12:54]-[13:49]).

  • Peron: “He does not bend to what might be good or popular. He’s just doing what Trump wants…” ([12:54]).

• White House Cooperation Likely: Need for White House to be looped in ([14:03]).

• Bottom line: Possible shutdown end in days, but likely to repeat drama in January ([14:28]-[14:34]).

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“There are no winners in a government shutdown. There are only losers and survivors. And this is the survival move.”
— Joe Peron [06:21]

“You just won an off-year election convincingly by pounding them on this issue...Then to turn around in a week and be like, actually nah, we’re going to give in on this one is absolutely demoralizing.”
— Sam Stein [05:50]

“When’s the last time the party demanding a policy concession in a shutdown got the policy concession?”
“Never.”
— Sam Stein & Joe Peron [09:13]

“If there’s anger, it’s not...the base is more chill about this because the people they’re going to be disappointed in, they don’t like John Fetterman, they don’t know or care about Angus King.”
— Joe Peron [11:24]

“Mike Johnson has shown time and time again...he does not bend to what might be good or popular. He’s just doing what Trump wants.”
— Joe Peron [12:54]

---

Important Segment Timestamps

• Deal Details Unpacked: [01:17] – [02:37]
• List of Senate Support/Opposition: [03:05] – [03:58]
• Case Against the Deal: [05:06] – [06:21]
• Case For the Deal: [06:31] – [08:12]
• Historic Precedent/Shutdowns Don’t Work: [09:00] – [09:37]
• Base Reaction Dynamics: [11:00] – [11:48]
• Whip Count/House Politics: [11:56] – [14:03]
• Shutdown Déjà Vu: [14:28] – [14:46]

---

Tone & Style

Conversational, analytical, sometimes wry. Sam Stein and Joe Peron blend inside-the-Beltway knowledge with raw skepticism about the political system’s incentives, repeatedly highlighting the cyclical, performative nature of shutdown brinkmanship. Their tone is candid, occasionally darkly humorous about the state of U.S. legislative politics.

---

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

If you want a crisp, insider’s recap of Congress’s latest wild night and whether the shutdown fix will stick, this episode offers clear breakdowns of what’s on the table, who stands where, and why this is probably just an intermission before political gridlock repeats in January. Stein and Peron don’t sugarcoat the frustration on the left nor the structural incentives pushing Washington toward more of the same.

---

Summary prepared by Bulwark Takes AI Recap

Transcript

[Joe Peron]

What do you think makes the perfect snack?

[Sam Stein]

Hmm.

[AM PM Advertiser]

It's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.

[Joe Peron]

Could you be more specific?

[AM PM Advertiser]

When it's cravenient. Okay, Like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the street at a.m. p.m. Or a savory breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at a.m. pM.

[Joe Peron]

I'm seeing a pattern here.

[AM PM Advertiser]

Well, yeah, we're talking about what I.

[Joe Peron]

Crave, which is anything from AM pm.

[AM PM Advertiser]

What more could you want? Stop by AM PM where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. AM PM Too much. Good stuff.

[Sam Stein]

Hey everyone, it's me, Sam Stein, managing Enter at the Bulwark and I'm here with Joe Peron, who is covering Capitol Hill for us with his Press Pass newsletter, which you should subscribe to. It's awesome. We are coming here late Sunday night. It's like eight o'clock on Sunday night. I'm telling you the timestamp because by the time you watch this, it's likely that this video will feel dated. But we're going to do it anyway because it appears that there is a deal in the Senate to end this government shutdown. This happened pretty quickly today through the course of the day, but we were getting wind of it throughout the course of the day. And then we are awaiting John Thune, the majority leader, to speak on the matter. But Joe, tell us what we know. And then I'm going to get into the case for the deal and the case against the deal, but tell us what we know.

[Joe Peron]

So I watched the Niners get killed today and I wanted to just go to bed.

[Sam Stein]

And what does this have to do with this?

[Joe Peron]

The Senate had other plans. And so anyway, this is a. Depending on who you ask, it's a cave or it's a compromise. What it entails, basically, is led by Angus King, Jean Shaheen, Maggie Hassan. Basically, it's a CR the same old house pass CR but it goes through January 30th. So we'll get to do this again in a couple months.

[Sam Stein]

Nice.

[Joe Peron]

And then they get a promised vote on a Democratic Affordable Care act extension in December. So like 40 days from now.

[Sam Stein]

Now those are the. Just because those are the extended subsidies for the Affordable Care. Okay, gotcha.

[Joe Peron]

And that's the thing they've been wanting to get out of this all along, but this is much further away. They originally wanted it, wanted it to be a part of reopening. And then there's a minibus which is, you know, A cobbling together of some funding things which will be reversal of shutdown, reduction in forces and back pay, and then protections against them potentially happening in the future. Plus snap, the food assistance program funded through the end of fiscal year 2026.

[Sam Stein]

Okay. I just want to set the stage with who's supporting and who's not. And then I'm going to actually get into my. The, the case for. The case against. So who we know is supporting is on the Democratic side is important, but actually who we know who's against is kind of more important. But let's go. We know Angus King, Maggie Hassan, Gene Shaheen, Cortez, Mastro, Tim Kaine and Fetterman are the six Democrats as of now that we know are supporting this. The people who are not, presumably.

[Joe Peron]

Chuck Schumer.

[Sam Stein]

No, Chuck Schumer has announced he is against it. You got to check slack, buddy. I put it in the slack. This is how fast this thing's moving. The minority leader of the Senate is against it. It. Okay. Brian Schatz, who is widely expected to be the next Senate minority whip or the next whip, I should say, who knows if they regain power, is against this. Okay. The 2028 potentials who are out against this are JB Pritzker already, Gavin Newsome, Reuben Gallego, all against this. Chris Coons, not exactly a bleeding heart, rageful progressive, is against this. Mark Kelly is against this. A lot of people are against this. Tammy Baldwin is against this. So it's. They need. How many votes do they need? Seven Democrats, is that right? Yes. Okay. They need seven votes. It's going to be tight for sure.

[Joe Peron]

I mean. Yeah, we're already seeing the trickling in. And, and you mentioned, like, the 2028 contenders. I'm also seeing a lot of the Democrats who are outside of the Senate, but who are running in primaries to get in are against it. Mallory McMorrow in Michigan, Angie Craig in Minnesota. So they're all very quickly saying, this is a cave, this is a bad deal. Bernie's basically. And when I spoke to him earlier this week, he was like, any cave like this will be, you know, horrible.

[Sam Stein]

And.

[Joe Peron]

Yeah. And he said, you know, it's. That it's going to be not just a policy mistake, but a political one. Yeah, I don't really buy that, that shutdowns a year out from an election can impact it, but they seem to. To be making the case that it. That it could.

[Sam Stein]

So. Okay, now should I get into my. The case for and against. Let me do it. I'm going to do My case against, I'm gonna do my case for. But in between, I want you to kind of either counter rebut me or just, you know, weigh in on them. So the case against doing this deal, if you're a Democrat, you went into the shutdown with one objective or at least one main objective, which was extend the Obamacare subsidies. Okay? They're expiring at the end of the year. You're already seeing people who have sticker shock because the premiums are high. You said you wouldn't even take a year extension. You wanted two, three years. You weren't even going to have a ceremonial vote. That was a no, no, that was your objective. And you have failed. You have failed. You're getting like a vote in the Senate, no guarantees of a vote in the House, no guarantees of it passing the Senate. It is an abject failure. The second objective you had if you were Democrats is you wanted to stop the administration from doing like impoundments and rescissions, basically unilaterally determining what money Congress spent, got spent. There are no, as far as I can see, there are no limits on that. So on the second objective, you failed. And then the third reason to vote against this is that you just won an off year election convincingly by pounding them on this issue and by saying they don't get affordability. And the base finally is like, yes, we have a party that can fight for us. Finally we have someone who can fight for us. Then to turn around in a week and be like, actually nah, we're going to give in on this one is absolutely demoralizing. So that's the case against it. Am I wrong?

[Joe Peron]

I don't think so. But I, I would say there are only, there are no winners in a government shutdown. There are only losers and survivors. And this is the survival move.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, okay, here's the case for it. One, you are rehiring a bunch of people who are fired. You are also, as far as I read this, and I might be wrong, but the RIFT protections, by that, I mean the protections against those people who are fired in reduction of forces, they go into effect in this cr and if this CR gets extended in January, it stays into effect. In other words, if they continue at level, the administration cannot fire federal employees indiscriminately according to law. So that's a, that actually is a win. And it matters. You are funding snap benefits. So even if you have another shutdown in January and we're finding this no matter what, and so the administration in January can't take this hostage. And then three is like, look, if your objective heading into this shutdown was we cannot allow for financial pain to be inflicted upon the populace in the form of heightened Obamacare subsidies, you can't then turn around and say like, we are willing to allow people to endure financial pain by the reduction of SNAP benefits. It doesn't quite compute. And there is an advantage to being the party that actually does have a semblance of morality. Now, last thing I will say this is just the case for I'm just making the case is you can say we have made health care the most salient issue in politics and now Donald Trump owns the premium increase. That's going to happen because he's the one who refused to vote for this or even debate it or even allow discussion on it. Therefore, when you get those premium increases and you don't have the subsidies in January, only one person is to blame, and it's that guy. Yeah.

[Joe Peron]

And I would say that when they have their December vote on the ACA subsidies, if they get it and it either fails or it passes, well, then it's in the House's court and they got to do something about it. And they don't want to. They're not going to. And so it be not just becomes a Trump problem. It becomes an every single House race problem for a Republican who's not, you know, pressing Mike Johnson on this.

[Sam Stein]

All right, so which one convinced you more? Which case?

[Joe Peron]

I would say that, look, if you're looking at this from the perspective of a federal employees and like getting something done. That's right. And taking what you can, I think there's, there's a case to be made there in terms of like you Democrats emerging with some kind of real tangible victory. They're not getting it here.

[Sam Stein]

Well, of course not. I mean, but here's the other thing. You're a student of this stuff. Like when's the, when last time the party demanding a policy concession in a shutdown got the policy concession?

[Joe Peron]

Never.

[Sam Stein]

Correct. It's never happened.

[Joe Peron]

Do you remember what this defeated Obamacare in 2013.

[Sam Stein]

Okay, so this is, this is a great, this is a great example. 2013. Ted Cruz basically whips up energy on the right. Defense demands a repeal of Obamacare. Right. They shut down the government for what? I don't know, couple weeks. What was it? Do you know?

[Joe Peron]

It was a lot less long than this one.

[Sam Stein]

Yeah, they opened the government. Everyone says, wow, they really it up. Like Republicans totally screwed the pooch. That was really dumb. What a waste of Time they look like idiots, they open it up, what happens the next like week or two. Everyone assumed that they just screwed themselves for the election. What happened was the Affordable Health Care Act's website launched and it was a total disaster. That was launch of healthcare.gov it was a total disaster. The entire conversation shifted away from the shutdown into failures of Obamacare to launch. And the Republicans enjoyed a fantastic midterms in 2014. So I'm not, I'm with you. I don't know how much this actually will impact anything.

[Joe Peron]

Yeah. People just, they under, they don't understand what's happening in Washington. They just go, that's Trump's fault. Anything, any, any bad thing that stems from this, whether it's the ACA tax credits not getting extended eventually or potentially another shutdown or you name it, it's just gonna, it's just gonna go back to the president and the majority party. That's how this works. And especially a, a year, a little less than a year out from the election. It's. I would say that this shutdown has been a victory for Democrats in turning the, the conversation towards health care.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Joe Peron]

But I, which is their, that's their number one issue. Always has been.

[Sam Stein]

But don't. Okay. Now I go back though. Don't. This is, I, this is tough because there's going to be legit anger at Democrats for doing this from their base. Like, people are going to be apoplectic. Right. Right.

[Joe Peron]

But the, the anger will be because, especially with like Schumer not sporting it, like the anger is going to be at Jean Shaheen, a retiring New Hampshire senator. I don't.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Joe Peron]

You know, the anger's not going to be if it's directed at like Ken Martin, the, the dnc. Yeah. Like if, if there's anger, it's not. I, I don't think it actually does much in terms with the base. I think the base is more chill about this because the people they're going to be disappointed in, they don't like John Federman. They don't know or care about Angus King.

[Sam Stein]

Right.

[Joe Peron]

You know, it's just like it's, there's not a central figure in this at, at the moment who they can really put blame on. Like a Schumer.

[Sam Stein]

Right. I'm reading the latest up to date stuff. So my follow right now is Andrew Desiderio, old colleague of mine, works for Punchbowl. He's been on top of this. His whip count as of 8:15 is 58 senators who. All, all the Republicans, not Rand Paul Because Rand Paul is opposing this. So if that's 52 Republicans, then he's got Federman, Cortez, Mastro King, that', Shaheen, Maggie Hassan and Kane. That's 58. So there's two that they still need. Last question for you. Did you what was I mean, did you have an inkling that this was coming and, and if so, what gave it away?

[Joe Peron]

When John Thune at the end of the week said we're going to be working through the weekend, I was like, yeah, some something's going to happen. Nothing makes senators work and get to work like being told they have to stay here for the week weekend. Biggest sign.

[Sam Stein]

I have one other question though. Like let's say they in theory they get this done. Could this get up in the House? Like, I mean, yeah, really.

[Joe Peron]

Mike Johnson has shown time and time again, which is part of what's made him such a successful relative term speaker, is that he does not bend to what might be good or popular. He's just doing what what Trump wants what Trump wants him to do. And the, the conference is just getting in line behind him. And so if he says we're not going to vote on these woke tax credits, you know, who's going to make him?

[Sam Stein]

Well, I'm not saying that. I'm saying let's say the Senate passes this CR with the attachments, the rifts restored, the snap money and you know, up to up through January, which are the main components of this thing. The it would pass the House, right? I mean Trump wouldn't. I don't, I'm assuming Trump would be, I don't know, man. Maybe Trump looks at the rifts and says, no, I don't, I, I don't. My hands tied.

[Joe Peron]

I don't. That'd be a good indicator of like who is really directing this thing. If it's Russ vote directing this thing, there'll be some opposition on that front. If it's just Trump, like he's going to take any kind of deal and thing he can turn into his own victory.

[Sam Stein]

You have to assume that they've looped in the White House. The Thunes people have looped in the White House and they're not like freelancing here. All right, well, we'll see. As of now, 8, 18, we don't have a full 60 votes, but we're getting there. It looks like they're gonna have a deal tonight. We'll have a couple days where this goes through the procedural stuff, but we could be looking at the end of the longest shutdown in US History, so.

[Joe Peron]

And then we can do it all again in January.

[Sam Stein]

I know. That's the other thing. We. This is the thing. It's like, we're gonna do this again in January.

[Joe Peron]

So, like, I. I have written before that I'm like, oh, the government is on the verge of shutting down. That's a sentence I've written, like, a thousand times in my career. And I'm going to write a thousand more times just this year.

[Sam Stein]

Can't wait. This is why you gotta subscribe to Press Pass. All right, buddy, I know it's past your bedtime. I'll let you go. Take care, okay?