Bulwark Takes: "Worst in 80 YEARS?! Trump Polling Is a DISASTER at 100-Day Mark"
Release Date: April 28, 2025
Host: Tim Miller, The Bulwark
Introduction
In this episode of Bulwark Takes, Tim Miller delves into the latest polling data surrounding President Donald Trump’s approval ratings at the pivotal 100-day mark of his administration. Highlighting significant declines and historical comparisons, Miller provides a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving Trump’s unpopularity and the broader implications for the political landscape.
Trump’s Historical Unpopularity
Tim Miller opens the discussion by presenting alarming polling data from a joint survey conducted by The Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos. According to the poll, President Trump holds the worst favorable ratings of any president in the last 80 years, marking him as historically unpopular during his first 100 days in office.
“Donald Trump with the worst favorable ratings of any president in the last 80 years, historically unpopular for a president and his first 100 days” (00:00).
Miller reflects on the Bulwark team’s prior warnings about Trump’s potential for disaster, noting the persistence of his voter base despite negative forecasts.
Economic Concerns Driving Disapproval
A significant portion of Trump’s low approval ratings stems from economic dissatisfaction. Miller cites striking statistics from the poll:
- 21% believe the economy is better since Trump took office.
- 53% view it as worse, with 25% seeing it as unchanged.
- 62% report rising prices for necessities, with only 27% noting a decrease.
“The economy since Trump took office, 21% better, 53% worse, 25% same” (00:00).
These numbers underscore widespread economic distress, with a majority of respondents anticipating that Trump’s policies will lead to a recession (72% believe so). Miller interprets these findings as indicative of deep-rooted economic issues overshadowing Trump’s base.
Key Policy Areas Impacting Approval
Miller explores various policy areas where Trump’s administration is faltering in public support:
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Immigration:
- 46% approve of Trump's handling of immigration, the highest among the issues discussed.
- Specific policies, such as deporting undocumented immigrants suspected of criminal activity to El Salvador, receive 47% support.
- Comparatively, the New York Times Siena College poll showed a more severe disapproval (52% disapprove) for similar immigration measures.
“Sending undocumented immigrants who are suspected of being members of a criminal group to El Salvador at 47%” (00:00).
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Education and Research Funding:
- Reducing federal funding for medical research garners only 21% support.
- Government involvement in private universities receives a 28% approval rating.
“Reducing federal funding for medical research. That's at only 21% support” (00:00).
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Birthright Citizenship and DEI Practices:
- Ending birthright citizenship is supported by 31%, while DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) practices see mixed responses, with 35% approving Trump’s stance and 51% opposing it when extremist views are considered.
“Ending birthright citizenship. 31%. ... ending DEI practices, you've got the highest number, 35% say he's handling it about right” (00:00).
-
Environmental Regulations:
- Cutting back environmental regulations on oil and gas drilling receives 37% support, with 61% opposing the measures.
“Cutting back environmental regulations on oil and gas drilling, that's not something that a lot of people are talking about right now. That's happening. 37% support, 61% opposed” (00:00).
Voter Behavior and Democratic Response
Miller discusses the implications of the poll results for voter behavior and Democratic strategy. He emphasizes that voters are becoming increasingly aware of economic hardships, such as layoffs and rising prices, which are directly impacting their daily lives. This awareness is driving disillusionment with Trump’s policies.
“You have to give him a 9% curve to get him up above old Gerald Ford, who had a 47% approval rating about the first time days of his presidency. So, you know, it's not good no matter how you look at it” (00:00).
Miller argues that Democrats should focus their messaging on tangible economic issues rather than attempting to divert attention to other policy areas, which voters perceive as distractions. He contends that addressing core economic concerns directly is more effective in influencing public opinion than shifting the narrative to less impactful topics.
Historical Comparisons and Future Implications
Drawing parallels to previous administrations, Miller references George W. Bush’s presidency, noting how sustained negative perceptions can lead to significant shifts within a party. He suggests that persistent economic decline and declining approval ratings could embolden Republicans to distance themselves from Trump, similar to the disillusionment experienced by Bush’s supporters over various issues.
“Eventually, if the numbers keep going this direction, the economy keeps getting worse. That is what you're going to see” (00:00).
Miller underscores the potential long-term consequences of the current polling trends, emphasizing that while the polls may not yet prompt immediate changes, continued economic deterioration could catalyze a reorientation within the Republican Party.
The Importance of Polls in Political Action
Despite Sarah Longwell’s perspective that polls might not immediately influence behavior, Miller asserts that polling data remain critical indicators of public sentiment. He highlights that poor polling can lead to strategic adjustments within political parties, corporate America, and among candidates.
“There's a lot of reasons to not obsess over the polls, but they do matter in the way that they might impact other people's actions” (00:00).
Miller concludes by encouraging listeners to recognize the significance of these polls as barometers of potential future political shifts and the necessity for Democrats to leverage this data in their strategic planning.
Conclusion
Tim Miller wraps up the episode by reiterating the gravity of Trump's declining approval ratings and the underlying economic factors contributing to his unpopularity. He emphasizes the historical significance of these trends and the potential for substantial political realignment if negative sentiments persist.
“Nothing wrong with pointing and laughing at Donald Trump for being the least popular president in history at the 100 day mark” (End).
Miller signs off with a nod to The Bulwark’s commitment to delivering incisive analysis, encouraging listeners to stay informed and engaged.
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