Transcript
A (0:01)
This week Amazon announced it's shutting down its Amazon Fresh and Amazon Go Grocery Stores and refocusing its grocery strategy around Whole Foods delivery and a more Walmart style operating model. On the surface that sounds like a retreat. It's not. Grocery was one of the most logical expansions that Amazon could make. High frequency, massive share wallet and daily customer behavior. But what's interesting isn't that Amazon closed some formats. What's interesting is how they expanded, why they built first, why they bought Whole Foods and why Whole Foods won, as well as why they're now copying Walmart. So today on Business Lunch, we're going to break down all of that and by the end we're going to give you a simple framework that you can use to decide how to expand and when to pivot in your own business. Welcome to Business Lunch. I'm Roland Frazier and our co host today is Richard Lindner. Richard, how are you?
B (0:53)
And I'm great. I'm excited to talk about this today. I think there are so many great.
A (0:58)
What do you like about it?
B (1:00)
Well, I love that if we look about, look at it. I think you said it, you nailed it. This, this isn't a retreat. Right. Whole food sales are up 40% since Amazon acquired them in 2017. They have what, 550 locations. They're going to open another hundred stores and they're going to add 10 of those smaller footprint daily shop formats by the end of 2026. So it's not a retreat, it's market expansion with capital allocation discipline. Right. And I think that's just such a great lesson to look because it's easy to kill things that aren't working. It's really difficult to kill things that are when you can't do everything. I think it's especially difficult for entrepreneurs and I think the larger companies when really you're dealing with money factoring and capital allocation, at the end of the day it can be an easier decision to make. But I think as entrepreneurs looking at that decision and bringing in sunk cost bias and a bit of emotional ownership of things and saying what lesson can we bring? Because again, killing a loser and shutting down something that's not working is easy.
A (2:18)
Yeah, yeah.
B (2:19)
But reallocating and stopping something that is, that's hard to do.
A (2:26)
So let's, let's look at the story here. So Amazon already dominated. They had non perishable goods, long tail selection, infrequent but large baskets. What they didn't really fully own was daily purchasing. They didn't have a household habit, they didn't really have food spend which is one of the biggest categories there is. And Amazon is the everything store. So grocery wasn't really for them I think so much an adjacency as it was a frequency and wallet share expansion. So that's an important distinction because they didn't say what's nearby to what we already do. They said what do our customers already buy all the time that we don't currently touch? Which is a really good question to ask. So I think the insight to start with here is that the smartest expansions usually target one of three things. It's either higher purchase frequency, greater share of the customer wallet, or some sort of built in structural lock in to customer behavior that's already going on. And this one hit all three for them. So I'd like to kind of from an operational perspective and I want to bring in some of the stories of, of the businesses that you run with us and that we have or that we run together and that, that I think could really help people. My first question for you is like when you're asking yourself where should I go next? And you're. I guess the question would be what do my customers buy far more often than my current product? That would be a good place to start. Do you agree?
