Podcast Summary: Business Lunch – Episode: Riding the Waves of Disruption: Trends to Watch in 2025

Title: Business Lunch
Host: Roland Frazier
Guests: Ryan Dice
Release Date: January 7, 2025

Introduction

In the premiere episode of 2025, Business Lunch hosts Roland Frazier and Ryan Dice delve into the anticipated trends and disruptions that will shape the business landscape in the upcoming year. The conversation focuses on identifying potential winners and losers across various sectors, including business strategies, technology advancements, and marketing tactics. With a blend of insightful analysis and candid opinions, the duo provides a roadmap for entrepreneurs and business strategists looking to navigate the complexities of the year ahead.

Business Winners and Losers

Timestamp: 00:31 – 15:50

Winners: Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Roland emphasizes the continued success of companies growing through acquisitions:
"Acquisitions are still doing well and that people who are growing by acquiring companies... I think it's going to continue to be a winner in 2025." ([03:32])

Ryan concurs, highlighting the substantial "$4 trillion of committed but unallocated capital" poised to reignite M&A activity:
"I think in 2025... M and A is going to have an explosion which is just going to get acquisitions going crazy again throughout the ecosystem." ([03:32])

Losers: Businesses Resistant to Automation Roland points out that companies failing to adopt automation technologies will struggle:
"The businesses that don't keep up are going to have big challenges with that." ([09:37])

Additional Winners:

• Telehealth Services: Increased demand as consumers prefer remote services.
• Automation Platforms: Tools like Zapier and Robotic Process Automation (RPA) are essential for streamlining operations.
• First-Party Data Ownership: Companies that own and leverage their own customer data will gain a competitive edge.

Additional Losers:

• Private Equity-Owned Service Providers: Mismanagement by PE firms may lead to declining service quality, adversely affecting consumers.
• Traditional Event-Based Businesses: High costs and diminishing returns are expected to push traditional trade shows and events out of favor.

Technology Winners and Losers

Timestamp: 17:44 – 36:26

Winners:

• Google Gemini and AI Technologies: Roland sees Google's AI advancements, particularly Gemini, as pivotal, despite potential regulatory challenges:
  "I think Gemini is going to claim the top spot... Gemini in many cases now is better than ChatGPT." ([33:12])

• Elon Musk’s Initiatives (X and Grok): Roland predicts Musk’s ventures will thrive, citing their rapid development capabilities:
  "I think that X and Grok are going to be big winners. I'd put my money on Elon." ([35:58])

Losers:

• Enterprise Software Companies: Outdated sales processes and reliance on annual contracts make them vulnerable:
  "I think Apple products are going to continue to be losers... How long before they destroy the user experience?" ([07:59] – [30:10])

• Apple Intelligence: Disappointment in Apple’s AI initiatives could erode brand trust:
  "Everything just seems like it's loser after loser after loser." ([30:53] – [35:03])

• OpenAI’s ChatGPT: Anticipated regulatory scrutiny and competition from Google Gemini may diminish its dominance:
  "I think chatgpt OpenAI is going to lose... Gemini is going to claim the top spot." ([35:58] – [35:20])

Marketing Tactics and Strategies

Timestamp: 36:46 – 57:48

Winners:

• First-Party Data Utilization: Owning customer data allows for personalized marketing and reduces dependency on third-party platforms:
  "The people who do that will be the winning." ([36:46])

• High-Quality, Original Content: Moving away from AI-generated slop to bespoke, data-driven content enhances credibility and engagement:
  "Well thought out original content... are going to look like they're out of touch." ([38:38] – [43:03])

• Micro-Influencers and Niche Podcasts: Targeting smaller, engaged audiences through authentic voices increases marketing effectiveness:
  "The micro influencers... they actually do value this person's opinion in this very narrow area." ([44:18] – [46:12])

• Brand-Focused Advertising: Shifting budget towards brand-building efforts to create long-term relational equity:
  "Allocating at least 20% of your advertising budget to some type of brand effort." ([47:57] – [52:22])

Losers:

• Direct Response Advertising: Rising customer acquisition costs and diminishing returns make direct response less viable:
  "If you're just relying exclusively upon paid advertising... it's just too expensive." ([46:18] – [48:23])

• Celebrity Endorsements: Declining influence of traditional celebrities in favor of more relatable, niche influencers:
  "The value of a celebrity endorsement is so incredibly low right now." ([44:36] – [46:12])

• Traditional Loyalty Programs: Physical and generic loyalty cards are becoming obsolete in favor of seamless digital alternatives:
  "Loyalty cards are going to be down... online connected loyalty cards that make it seamless and easy wins." ([65:29] – [67:06])

Trends to Watch in 2025

Timestamp: 57:15 – 71:34

Growing Trends:

1. Local Search Optimization: Increasing emphasis on "near me" searches enhances local business visibility:
   "Near me open now." ([57:27])

2. Automation for Small Businesses: Expansion of automation tools beyond large enterprises to support small businesses:
   "Automation and RPA for small business, not just the big people anymore." ([58:01])

3. Hyper-Personalized Marketing: Leveraging detailed customer data to deliver tailored marketing messages increases engagement:
   "Hyper personalized marketing and a focus on employee retention via... employee experience." ([59:11])

4. YouTube as a Key Marketing Platform: Continued growth of YouTube as a content binge platform presents advertising opportunities:
   "YouTube is still sharecropping... but more than any other social channel." ([52:22] – [53:30])

5. Paid Communities: Growth of low-cost paid communities as front-end marketing strategies, despite potential over-saturation:
   "Paid communities... I'm seeing more and more people promoting low dollar paid communities." ([60:10])

Declining Trends:

1. Social Media for Younger Audiences: Potential regulatory crackdowns on platforms like TikTok and Meta may reduce their appeal:
   "Social media companies are about to get their comeuppance." ([23:31] – [24:55])

2. Metaverse and NFTs: Continued skepticism and decline in adoption rates make these technologies less viable:
   "Metaverse speculation... NFTs... they're going to lose any kind of faith." ([68:02] – [71:34])

3. Traditional Events and Trade Shows: High costs and questionable ROI lead to a reduction in traditional event-based marketing:
   "It seems to be going the way of the enterprise." ([66:03] – [67:42])

4. Email Newsletters: Oversaturation and declining engagement render traditional email newsletters less effective:
   "Email newsletters, terrible experience... most of them absolutely sucked." ([60:35] – [63:25])

Conclusion

Roland Frazier and Ryan Dice wrap up the episode by reiterating the importance of adapting to evolving trends and leveraging emerging technologies to stay competitive in 2025. They emphasize the necessity of owning first-party data, investing in high-quality content, and embracing automation to drive business growth. The conversation concludes with a call to action for listeners to stay informed and strategically position their businesses to ride the waves of disruption successfully.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Dice on M&A Impact:
  "I think in 2025, with the new FTC chair... M and A is going to have an explosion which is just going to get acquisitions going crazy again throughout the ecosystem." ([03:32])

• Roland Frazier on Automation:
  "Robotic process automation... are going to be big winners and the businesses that don't keep up are going to have big challenges with that." ([09:37])

• Ryan Dice on Marketing Shifts:
  "I think if you're not doing marketing that compounds, you've got to know that it's only going to work less well tomorrow." ([48:23])

• Roland Frazier on YouTube's Role:
  "YouTube is still sharecropping... but more than any other social channel." ([52:22])

Final Thoughts

This episode of Business Lunch serves as a comprehensive forecast for 2025, offering valuable insights into the shifting paradigms of the business world. By identifying key areas of growth and decline, Roland Frazier and Ryan Dice equip entrepreneurs and business leaders with the knowledge needed to make informed strategic decisions in the face of ongoing disruption.