Podcast Summary: Business Lunch with Roland Frasier

Episode Title: Why Smart Businesses Froze in 2025 and What Will Separate Winners in 2026
Hosts: Roland Frasier (A), Ryan Deiss (B)
Release Date: January 8, 2026

Overview

In this candid and insightful episode, Roland Frasier and Ryan Deiss look back at the unique and turbulent year of 2025, dissecting why uncertainty “froze” many businesses—including their own—and how the winners of 2026 will separate from the rest. They cover evolving deal dynamics, shifts in buyer confidence, the real impact of AI, radical changes in decision-making, and practical lessons for business operators navigating volatile times. No cheerleading—just real talk and actionable insights for leaders designing their next moves in 2026.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. 2025: A Year of Unprecedented Business Paralysis

• Not a Crisis, but a Freeze

  • Businesses, customers, and capital didn’t “disappear,” but assumptions did ([02:23]):

    “What disappeared was confidence without proof. Everything slowed down—not because people were scared, but because they stopped assuming.” — Roland Frasier ([02:23])

  • The market response felt like “deer in the headlights”—an absence of optimism or fear; just collective inaction ([02:51])

• Traditional Economic Indicators Didn't Apply

  • Classical models broke down: despite high inflation, people kept spending; the stock market (fueled by AI stocks) diverged from the real economy ([03:16]-[04:02])
  • Quote:

    “A mistake that a lot of businesses make and certainly the media makes is equating the stock market with the economy. They have increasingly become disconnected.” — Ryan Deiss ([04:02])

  • AI-adjacent sectors thrived, especially commercial services linked to data centers, while traditional and home services lagged ([04:02])

2. Deals Took Longer—Trust Got Replaced by Proof

• Dramatic Shift in Deal Dynamics

  • Deals that previously would have closed quickly became protracted, with buyers demanding more in-depth diligence at every step ([06:06])
  • Example: Attempting to sell a company saw months of due diligence before even an LOI ([06:47])
  • Analogy:

    “It’s like that uncomfortable moment right before you cry. We’re still living in the tension of trying not to cry—we haven’t just let ourselves go.” — Ryan Deiss ([07:24])

• Prove It Culture Across the Board

  • Speed in business once masked bad assumptions; in 2025, “prove it” replaced “trust me”—in sales, hiring, lending, and partnerships ([08:56])
  • This caution is likely to become the norm until the macro climate feels truly “safe” again ([09:59])
  • Quote:

    “The thing that actually moved the needle [on consumer trust] the most was the founder or the CEO having a consistent presence on social media. We’re just looking for real humans.” — Ryan Deiss ([11:11])

3. Key Lesson: Profit Dollars Beat Margin Percentages

• Businesses Learned Hard Lessons in Measurement
  • Business owners fixated on margin percentages missed opportunities for higher profit dollars ([12:03])
  • Many painful, necessary decisions (stopping pet projects, letting people go, killing sunk cost ventures) led to record profits despite flat or lower revenue ([16:07])
  • “Hard times create strong men ... Good times create weak men ... The cycle continues.” ([16:32])

4. 2025 Was the Year AI Became Labor, Not Just Software

• The Big Mindset Shift

  • Early AI use was incremental ("just another tool"); late 2025 saw a breakthrough—using AI as an employee, not just software ([17:10]-[18:30])
  • Story:

    “I put the job description and training materials for a real team member into ChatGPT. Suddenly, I had a mini AI version of that person working on my project. That changed everything for me.” — Ryan Deiss ([18:30])

• AI Accelerated from Tool to Team Member

  • Roland used multiple AIs (Claude, ChatGPT, Lovable) to build and iterate an app in four weeks—a process that would have taken a developer team four months ([22:10])
  • Naming and codifying 'protocols' within AIs allows repeatable, rapid content creation and task delegation ([24:38])

• AI Protocols—A New Moat for Operators

  • By creating and naming custom “protocols”, users get bespoke outputs without constantly re-prompting or arguing with the AI ([24:38]-[29:31])
  • Quote:

    “If you’re building your versions of AI, with your own protocols baked in, it creates an ever-widening moat over users who are just typing prompts.” — Roland Frasier ([25:44])

5. Cultural Evolution: Less is More, Simpler is Better

• Embracing the Systems They Teach

  • Roland and Ryan “ate their own dog food,” rigorously implementing their own frameworks, processes, and content strategies ([30:56])
  • Content was treated as a business asset—selling, training, supporting deals, and anchoring decisions ([31:57])

• Faster, Harder Decisions

  • Hard decisions (letting people go, shutting down underperformers) were made more quickly than in previous years—but could still be improved ([32:44])
  • Lesson for faster decisions: if you won’t measure or scorecard a project, it’s probably just an expensive hobby ([34:21])

• Optimizing for Predictability and Inevitability

  • The goal for 2026: move from momentum to inevitability by systematizing success—fewer bets, more certainty ([36:14])
  • Quote:

    “As you begin to compound assets instead of just events, that’s what creates predictability and inevitability.” — Ryan Deiss ([38:22])

6. Letting Go of Sacred Cows & Creating Capacity

• Killing the Gold-Plated Event
  • Decision to stop hosting the profitable Get Scalable Live event—a $2.5-3M outlay that netted $1M—despite market expectations ([38:22])
  • Instead, they’ll leverage smaller, high-value client events to replicate the revenue with less effort, freeing up focus and supporting work-life balance ([42:49])
  • Insight: Sometimes, the thing you think you “have” to do is the very thing you can replace for more leverage or more joy ([42:49])

7. Trends for 2026: Human, Simple, Systematized

• Simplification Wins
  • Complexity was trimmed from sales and marketing; streamlined processes performed better ([42:57])
  • Authentic, human-to-human contact (especially CEO/founder visibility) supports trust in the AI era ([44:54])
  • Final Reflection:

    “Don’t copy what we did in 2025; copy how we decided. Ask yourself what worked, what didn’t, what should have died sooner, and what would make 2026 inevitable.” — Roland Frasier ([44:54])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[2025] was a year where a lot of things that used to work stopped working, and it happened kind of quietly.” — Roland Frasier ([00:35])
• “It just felt like everybody froze...not optimistic, but not scared. True deer in headlights.” — Ryan Deiss ([02:51])
• “Deals that should have been easy...radically different buyer behavior.” — Roland ([06:06])
• “Speed before was hiding maybe bad assumptions...prove it is replacing trust me.” — Roland ([08:56])
• “Margin percentage lies. Profit dollars don’t.” — Roland ([12:03])
• “Treating AI as labor, not software, was the breakthrough.” — Ryan ([18:30])
• “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times.” — Ryan ([16:32])
• “If we’re unwilling to put a scorecard on it, we’re not treating it like a business.” — Ryan ([34:21])
• “What would need to be true for us to not have to do that event?” — Ryan ([39:43])
• “Simple and human. I think that’s where things are headed.” — Ryan ([44:54])

Important Timestamps

• [02:23] — Main insight: Confidence, not capital or customers, disappeared in 2025
• [04:02] — Disconnect between stock market and the real economy
• [08:56] — Shift from “trust me” to “prove it”
• [11:11] — Impact of consistent founder/CEO presence on brand trust
• [17:10] — How AI finally moved the needle: from tool to labor
• [24:38] — Game-changing discovery: Naming protocols in AI
• [34:21] — Lesson: unpaid, unmeasured projects = expensive hobby
• [36:14] — 2026 focus: From momentum to inevitability
• [42:49] — Killing the sacred cow (Get Scalable Live event)
• [44:54] — Closing call-to-action: Emulate the decision process, not the specifics

Final Takeaways

• 2025 wasn’t a year of fear or collapse, but paralyzed inaction and heightened caution.
• Winners in 2026 will replace assumption with rigorous proof, focus on profit dollars over margin, and build unique company “moats” by codifying processes and AI use.
• Simplicity, human presence, and ruthless focus on scalable systems will be more valuable than ever.
• Challenge every sacred cow—sometimes your presumed “must-do's” are the biggest levers for future freedom.

If you want actionable business clarity and the hard truths (not just hype), this episode is essential for your 2026 strategy.