How did 2025 change the design industry?

Summary

Podcast Summary: How did 2025 change the design industry?

Business of Home Podcast
Host: Dennis Scully
Date: December 22, 2025
Guests: Caitlin Peterson (Editor in Chief), Warren Shoulberg (Retail Columnist), Fred Nickelhaus (Executive Editor)

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Overview

This special year-end episode assembles the Business of Home editorial team to reflect on 2025's tumultuous events in the design industry. Host Dennis Scully is joined by Caitlin Peterson, Warren Shoulberg, and Fred Nickelhaus for a candid, wide-ranging discussion on tariffs, the housing market, retail shake-ups, design centers, and the explosive impact of AI. The group analyzes the sector’s challenges, the resilience of its players, and offers predictions for 2026.

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One Word to Capture 2025’s Vibe

[03:09] Panel shares their "word of the year":

• Caitlin Peterson: “Tumultuous. This was a year of surprise pivots, abandoned plans, and just a lot that you don’t expect, but that you really have to recover from quickly to stay above water."
• Warren Shoulberg: “Lost. Coming into this year, I think everybody had pretty good expectations… and then wham, bam, no thank you, ma'am… It's turned into a disaster."
• Fred Nickelhaus: “The letter is ‘K’. There’s like a K-shaped economy where the high end continues to do really well and skyrocket, whereas the low end is going down like that little leg of the K."
• Dennis Scully: “Unbowed. Despite everything… they seem somehow remarkably unbowed.”

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Impact of Tariffs

[05:41] Tariffs Continue to Loom Large

• Warren: Tariff fears haven't resulted in economic collapse, but caused "unprecedented chaos and confusion" for companies. The worst effects are likely deferred to early 2026.
• Fred: Uncertainty from pending Supreme Court decisions has delayed price increases. Many companies are “on pause or on the defensive." Real tariff effects are “yet to fully play out.”
• Caitlin: Designers burned huge amounts of energy dealing with moving targets on pricing: “A lot of time that you can’t bill for… nobody could just say I’m opting out of this one.”

Notable Quotes:

• “We keep pushing back the worst of the tariff impact… it really looks like tariffs are not around the next corner, but the corner afterwards.” — Warren [06:33]
• “I think the effect of the tariffs is really yet to fully play out.” — Fred [07:59]

[10:19] Sourcing and Manufacturing

• Fred asks: Will US-based manufacturing benefit from tariffs?
• Warren (firmly): “No. It’s unrealistic that this manufacturing is going to come back.” [11:10]

Housing Market Stagnation

[14:35] The Frozen Housing Market

• Warren: Housing starts are at record lows. “Anybody who’s in a house has no intention of selling because they can’t get as advantageous a mortgage. So it’s just this logjam."
• Fred: The “survive til 25 and then thrive” outlook fizzled. “Housing has been frozen… except the very top, 1%, who kept spending solidly.” [16:15]
• Caitlin: That split echoes in design firms—some thriving, many struggling, “a broad slice of the design community… is hurting right now.”

Memorable Moment:

• “If you’re at that thin slice at the top of the market, this was not a bad year.” — Fred [17:13]

[20:16] Home Equity Not Being Tapped

• Homeowners aren’t spending their built-up equity. “The equity is there and they've decided, well, if we're not going to sell… and you just haven’t seen it.” — Warren [20:23]
• Fred notes “consumers are as frozen as the brands” and that post-COVID fatigue may still play a role. [22:31]

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Retail Winners, Losers, and Question Marks

[24:01] Retail Performance

• Wayfair’s stock up 114%—“the big enigma,” as their numbers are “less worse than they used to be.”
• RH down nearly 60%, but panelists remain bullish on their long-term potential, especially in European expansion.
• Williams Sonoma steady, but sector-wide skepticism on Wall Street persists.

Standout Quotes:

• “RH continually does things that nobody else does.” — Warren [27:21]
• “If you look at these stock results... it’s tough to pull a thread out of all of them because they really reflect where each company is at.” — Fred [28:01]
• “All of these companies… are relatively well-insulated. But independents are in trouble.” — Fred [31:47]

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Design Centers: Evolution and Shake-Up

[33:27] Changing Ownership & Models

• Coen Brothers Realty lost control of two major design centers; control now down from four to two.
• Caitlin: New ownership has led to “reinvesting in people, in programming, in very basic things like flowers and plants, potentially restaurants, better climate management…”
• Fred: Ownership changes may erode “efficiencies” and may motivate further sales, possibly centralized under entities like Jamestown.
• Dennis: “There's a need for people to come and to gather and for product to be available… the design center model is one that seems to have a lot more legs to it than people would have imagined.” [36:00]

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AI and Tech Disruption

[40:00] AI’s Industry Takeover

• Fred: The year that general-purpose AIs (ChatGPT, Gemini) overtook specialized design tools—“ChatGPT is pretty darn good at interior design, at visualizing…”
• Caitlin: Future jobs may be more about “asking the right questions” rather than having all the answers—AI will “reshape how we prepare for the workforce.” [41:57]
• Warren: Game-changer was Walmart integrating direct purchasing into AI—“a seminal change in the buying process and the consumer psyche.” [43:08]

Notable Quote:

• “Some surveys say up to 81% of designers use [AI]. I think next year… everyone will be using it.” — Fred [41:53]

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Memorable News, Companies, and Trends

[44:55] What Will Stay with You?

• Caitlin: Insightful interviews with Duane Bergman on valuing and selling design firms; succession is “in the industry zeitgeist.”
• Warren: Macy’s showing signs of genuine retail turnaround—“the first shoots of some really good retailing.”
• Fred: Quince’s push into home and the “obsession with dupes”—he expects them to be a bigger player in 2026.
• Dennis: Designers’ evolving relationship with vertical video/social media—predicts move towards valuing portfolios over personalities.

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Predictions for 2026

[50:22] Caitlin

• Hopes for “smoother sailing,” but predicts 2026 will be about taking “big swings” as companies revisit abandoned plans.

[51:47] Warren

• Tariff effects will hit “in the first half of the year… and that’s not going to be good.”

[52:43] Fred

• Predicts Charles Cohen will lose another design center in 2026.
• Every big furniture retailer will integrate with AI and click-to-buy features “except RH.”
• Renews (humorously) his running prediction that Houzz will go public.

[54:00] Dennis

• Predicts D&D Building will change hands; another Supreme Court ruling could end tariffs (with caveats); expects major private equity acquisition in the home sector.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "Tumultuous… a year of surprise pivots, abandoned plans, and a lot that you don’t expect." — Caitlin [03:09]
• "There’s like a K-shaped economy where the high end continues to do really well and skyrocket, whereas the low end is going down like that little leg of the K." — Fred [04:09]
• "It’s unrealistic that this [manufacturing] is going to come back." — Warren [11:10]
• "Housing has been frozen… except the very top, 1% who kept spending solidly." — Fred [16:15]
• "But don’t underestimate Gary Friedman and don’t underestimate RH." — Dennis [30:41]
• "ChatGPT is pretty darn good at interior design, it’s pretty darn good at visualizing." — Fred [40:30]
• "We’re not teaching them to know the answers, we're teaching them to ask the right questions." — Caitlin [41:57]

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• [03:09] — Panel’s "word of the year"
• [05:41] — Deep dive on tariffs: impact, Supreme Court, and future effects
• [14:35] — The state (and stagnation) of the housing market
• [24:01] — Public company retail performance: RH, Wayfair, Williams Sonoma, and others
• [33:27] — The changing landscape of design centers
• [40:00] — AI adoption and implications for the design industry
• [44:55] — Standout interviews, companies, and news stories from 2025
• [50:22] — Predictions for 2026

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Conclusion

This panel episode is a candid, sharply observant analysis of 2025’s major currents in the design world: policy uncertainty, economic bifurcation, technological disruption, and profound shifts in retail and professional life. With realism and a pinch of optimism, the team looks forward to a year that, while uncertain, is ripe for bold bets and creative adjustments.

Transcript

[A]

This is Business of Home. I'm your host, Dennis Scully. Every week, I'll be speaking with leaders and innovators from all corners of the home industry. This week, we're doing something a little bit different. To look back on a busy year in the design industry. I'm joined by three members of Business of Homes editorial team, Editor in chief Caitlin Peterson, retail columnist Warren Shohlberg, and executive editor Fred Nickelhaus. Together, we go over the topics that mattered most, from tariffs to design centers to rising prices to AI. We also look ahead at 2026 and make a prediction or two about what's to come. After this episode, we'll be taking a break from new episodes until January. In the meantime, enjoy the holiday season and we'll be back with you in New Year. This podcast is proudly sponsored by John Roselli and Associates, celebrating 75 years of design excellence and artisanal inspiration. For decades, John Rosselli has been a trusted name in the design world, representing premier brands, known for their craftsmanship and timeless style. With a commitment to bespoke customization and exceptional service, John Rosselli helps designers bring their creative visions to life. Visit johnrosselli.com or step into one of their showrooms in the D and D Building, the Dakota, the Washington Design center, or the Mart to experience their legacy firsthand. This podcast is sponsored by Leloy, maker of rugs, pillows and wall art. Leloy revealed their latest designer collaboration with Leanne Ford at High Point Market this fall. See those beautifully handcrafted rugs and pillows at their site, along with new seasons from Amber Lewis, Chris Loves Julia and Bridget Romanik. Learn [e-mail] that's L O L O I rugs.com and don't forget to follow Laloyloi Rugs on Instagram and TikTok. And now on with the show.

[B]

Here we are. We're almost to the end of the year, and in what has become an annual tradition around here, we've gathered together the Business of Home Brain Trust to look back on the last 12 months. We've got an amazing panel to do that, starting with boh's editor in chief, Caitlin Peterson. Kaitlin, welcome.

[C]

Thank you, Dennis.

[B]

So glad to have you. We've also got our retail columnist Warren Shohlberg with us.

[D]

Warren, hi Dennis.

[B]

Great to have you. And of course, Business of Homes executive editor Fred Nicklaus.

[E]

Great to meet you, Dennis.

[A]

Thanks for having me.

[B]

Well, pleasure to have you on the show, Fred. I've heard such good things.

[E]

They're all true.

[B]

So to get us started. We always try and find the one word that somehow described the vibe of 2025. Caitlin, what do you think?

[C]

My word for this year is? Tumultuous. I think this was a year of surprise pivots, abandoned plans, and just a lot that you don't expect, but that you really have to recover from quickly to stay above water.

[B]

I like it. Tumultuous. Certainly felt tumultuous.

[E]

Indee.

[B]

Warren, what about you?

[D]

I'm going with lost. You know what?

[B]

Okay, can't wait to hear this.

[D]

Coming into this year, I think everybody had pretty good expectations. The housing market was supposed to rebound, election was over, things were coming along, and then wham, bam, no, thank you, ma'.

[E]

Am.

[D]

It's turned into a disaster. And I think companies and businesses have spent the whole year playing defense trying to. To figure it out. And it's a lost tier. Yeah.

[B]

Okay, now that's making me feel like I was overly optimistic with my word. But, Fred, you go ahead and tell us yours.

[E]

I gotta give it up to Warren. It was the year before that it was mushy. Is that right? I feel like we should get these printed on, like, brass plaques. I've got mine down to just the letter of the year, and the letter is K. We've talked a lot about how there's like a K shaped economy where the high end continues to do really well and skyrocket, whereas the low end is going down like that little leg of the K. And I really feel like this year a lot of people have had a turbulent year. That's true. A lot of people have been lost, But I think the high end is still doing remarkably well. And the sort of bifurcation originally was bifurcation, but that's too unsexy of a word.

[B]

So the bifurcation K is so much sexier, I believe.

[E]

Well, it's shorter, at least. Has really defined a lot about this year.

[B]

Yeah, well, like I say, I'm feeling like my word might be overly optimistic, but I was going with unbowed.

[E]

Okay.

[B]

Okay. So I feel that despite everything that has been thrown at this industry and so many of the people who lead it or try and make a living in it, they seem somehow remarkably unbowed. And I think a big part of what has been making people feel lost or dazed or confused certainly has to be tariffs. And I'm wondering, as we get into that subject, what, Warren, really stands out to you as far as sort of telling the story of the impact of tariffs this year.

[D]

Well, the most dire predictions about Tariffs have turned out not to be true. The economy has not collapsed, we're not in a recession. But the amount of chaos and confusion they've caused for companies that are trying to sell stuff is unprecedented. And so I think that's a big deal. The consumer, I think, has tariff fatigue and says, well, I keep reading about these tariffs, but eggs have come down and my house is worth more than it used to be. So I don't get this tariff stuff. I do think we keep pushing back the worst of the tariff impact. And, you know, we first talked about it happening over the summer and then the fall and then Christmas. It really looks like tariffs are not around the next corner, but the corner afterwards. And I think that's looking like Q1 or Q2 of 26. And so what this is doing to pricing we haven't seen yet because companies still stockpiled products and goods and inventory. And they also said, well, short term we're going to eat some margin and we're not going to pass along everything. But that ain't going to last. And they're going to say, it's enough already, I need to make some money here. So any altruistic intent I think is going to be over next year.

[B]

Interesting. Fred, do you feel the same way?

[E]

Yeah, I mean, I think a lot of people have been putting off raising prices. I mean, one of the weird things to think about as we have this discussion is that the Supreme Court has yet to rule on whether the IEEPA tariffs are going to be considered legal or not. So if those are undone, everything we're talking about now needs to be revisited. I think a lot of companies are kind of waiting to hear what the Supreme Court says. And if they keep the tariffs in place, I think Warren is right. They will get sick of seeing their margins compressed, their investors will get sick of seeing margins compressed, and you're going to see a lot of long overdue price hikes come true in January, February, and the first half of next year. So I do think that there's this really, we're very tired of talking about them, and I'm sure our listeners are tired of hearing about it. But I think the effect of the tariffs is really yet to fully play out. It's been a very, very chaotic year, and I think that's kind of more than price hikes, although that's part of it. It's been this sort of chaos and uncertainty that's put a lot of brands kind of on pause or in the defensive. Caitlin, when you think about, like designers like what's been the biggest impact in terms of their mood or how they run their businesses.

[C]

I think a lot of time that you can't bill for either. Navigating with like your vendors, going back and checking that order, rechecking pricing, trying to figure out if pricing has changed, pivoting and trying to talk to your client about whether or not they still want the thing now that it's maybe more expensive because there's a tariff. Trying to figure out what the next best course of action is for each project to message to each client in the moment and then also how to move forward in a way that hopefully protects your firm from future fluctuation. Has just been this enormous energy burn all year long and I think it was happening in every single firm. Nobody could just say I'm opting out of this one or we'll just pass it along to my clients and they won't mind. That isn't a thing.

[B]

It's interesting, Fred, because I was wagering whether one of my predictions was going to be the Supreme Court tossing out the tariffs and how that was going to break next year open and what that might mean. I think that the pickup in unemployment, the affordability issue, I think people are feeling a lot more disgruntled going into the end of the year and holiday shopping is reminding them of the expense of so many things that it wouldn't surprise me if there's this a little bit of a tariff revolt going into next year. And it being an election year, there might need to be some meaningful changes. And I think the administration, while not often malleable when it comes to such things or agreeable to making meaningful changes, I feel like next year there might be a mood that, you know what, we do actually want to make the voters happier than they seem to be right now. And maybe we do need to dial back on those tariffs and not just on avocados and some of the things that they've brought down. What do you think?

[E]

Well, I mean, it's really impossible to predict what the administration is going to do. The tariffs could come on, they could come off. We'll certainly be covering it on the show. I kind of think about the long term changes that will come out one way or the other, whether they come off or come on. I think one of the big ones is just that everyone's going to want to consolidate and we're already seeing that. If you're a small company and you only have one supplier in China and you have no idea what the trade policy is going to be next year, you're going to be a lot more amenable to somebody coming along and saying, hey, I want to buy your company and fold you into a giant conglomerate that has a lot of breathing room and a lot of flexibility of sourcing. So I guess my one question is to everybody here is part of the tariffs are ostensibly to bring back US Manufacturing. Do you think there's a possibility that we will see a bump, even a small one, in sourcing from US Companies? What do you guys think?

[D]

No. Thank you. Very good at one word answer.

[E]

No.

[B]

No. I knew you'd have the right answer. There, there, go. There you go.

[D]

It may not be right, but it's my answer, and you can't take it away from me. It's unrealistic that this manufacturing is going to come back. And even if somebody wanted to do it, they'd still have to source so much of the components from overseas that it would negate any meaningful change. So. And if I can backtrack one second, the cynic in me says this Supreme Court thing is what Alfred Hitchcock used to call a MacGuffin, which is this meaningless distraction that's off on the side that really has nothing to do with anything. The Supreme Court may, you know, based on their decisions in the past on how they treated Trump administration policies that they. Some, in many cases, they've said, okay, this is not good, but we're not going to change it or we're not going to go back and undo what's been done. And Stephen Miller, who has come up with, you know, enough permutations to get around anything, has said, don't Worry, we got 14 different ways we can charge for tariffs. So I think the Supreme Court thing is not going to make a big difference. And granted, I am a cynic.

[B]

Yeah, you mentioned a cynical side. I haven't seen another. Is there. Wait, is there another side of you that I. That I haven't seen? I feel like I've only seen.

[D]

You know, if that wasn't true, I would take offense at that. So, yes.

[B]

Caitlin, did you have anything you wanted to add there?

[C]

Can you imagine when we were talking earlier about this idea that maybe tariffs are rolled back? Can you imagine everyone trying to administer, like, refunds on the designer side? Do you now go back to your client every single time you charge them a tariff and give them their money back because you got it back? Because. Because. Because I think there's a funny piece of that. Where would the industry cheer if suddenly we don't have some of these tariffs anymore. Maybe. Would we all then have to figure out how to undo all the work we spent this year doing? Yes. Which is sort of a funny wrinkle.

[B]

To consider and funny when you talk to designers who also, Warren, have a cynical side to them oftentimes. And they don't feel that any way you cut it, they don't feel their prices are coming down. They don't feel right that people are gonna dial. Interesting. And hard to know what will happen.

[A]

We're taking a quick break to remind you about Leloy.

[B]

It's been quite a year for the design industry.

[A]

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[B]

We're gonna move on to, to another rosy topic, really uplifting discussion and that is the housing market, which. Oh, did we did we see a lot of progress in the housing market in 2025. I'm not sure who wants to kick this one off for us.

[D]

Just not seeing it. Housing starts are at lows we haven't seen in a very long time. And anybody who's in a house has no intention of selling it and moving someplace else because they can't get as advantageous a mortgage. So it's just this log jam and there's nothing really coming along that's going to change that until mortgage rates come down substantially. And we're not talking, you know, an eighth of a percent or a quarter percent. We're talking about a couple of points and there's nothing to suggest we're going to see that anytime soon, except perhaps.

[B]

A new fed chairman in 2026, Warren, who, who I understand has the objective of lowering rates by several basis points. So we'll see. But I don't disagree with you. I think it is going to be chall. Fred, what's your sense?

[E]

Yeah, I mean this was supposed to be. This was survive till 25 and then thrive, I think was the charming motto that rapidly running out of relevance. And it just didn't happen. The housing market has been frozen and that's impacted everybody. I mean, I remember at the beginning of the Year. On the RH earnings call, I think Gary Friedman talked about the worst housing market in 20 years. Then it was 30, now it's 50.

[B]

So.

[E]

This is a bad housing market. And I don't think he's wrong. For what, what it's worth, I think the kind of like, you know, twist on that is something you know, we talked about earlier, which is just that while the broad scope of American housing is really frozen, the very top of the 1% really has kept spending, you know, solidly throughout this period. There was this crazy stat that came out of the richest 10% of Americans were responsible for something, 50% of total consumer spending. So it, it really is the affluent who are keeping, you know, the, the country's economy grinding along during a very weird period. And I think that's led to a lot of the sort of confusing, I'm going to say it, bifurcation that's happened in the industry this year where you'll be talking to some executives and they'll say, oh, this is awful. The tariffs are making everything impossible. How can we survive? And then I have a conversation with someone who runs a high end fabric company and they're like, yep, numbers are up, things are good. So if you're at that thin slice at the top of the market, this was not a bad year.

[D]

It's almost like the letter K, you.

[B]

Know, exactly that letter K. This show has been sponsored by the letter K. Caitlin, what were you gonna say?

[C]

I was just gonna say that that same split is definitely happening in design firms. I think I've been beating the drum all year that, you know, increasingly the people that I'm dming with on Instagram don't have a next job. But then you talk to certain people with a certain, you know, slice of client and they're like, no, we're fine. I don't know, we're busy. We've had to turn away a little bit of work. And so it's not necessarily universal, but I think that there is a broad slice of the design community that is hurting right now or that's feeling uneasy as they look at the year ahead. And certainly frozen housing doesn't do anything to help that.

[E]

I kind of think about how if this holds, whether it's going to sort of reorganize the industry because for the past 20 or so years there really has been this sort of new class of interior designer. For most of the 20th century, it really was this sort of rarefied, super affluent client. They were the only people who could hire a designer and Then over the past 20 years, it's like low interest rates. A lot of housing movement over the past decade, plus HGTV has sort of opened up this kind of mass affluent clientele. And there's a lot of designers who have really specialized in that and built their businesses around it. And in the current market where that part those customers or those clients aren't doing quite as well, housing is frozen. I do wonder if we'll see a little bit of a shrinking of those numbers of designers and we'll get back to it being a more rarefied profession for the super elite. I hope that doesn't happen. I don't necessarily think it will happen, but it's possible that if these conditions hold that we'll see the orientation of the industry sort of change a little bit.

[C]

You listen to the stock market analysts possibly predict a correction of some point. And I do wonder if there's an interesting comparison to that. In the design industry. There were so many new clients in 2021, 2022, 2023. There were so many new design businesses that launched to kind of capitalize on that demand. And I do wonder if part of what we're seeing is just also a course, you know, kind of a correction in the number of jobs that are available and the number of firms that those jobs can support.

[B]

Yeah, no, and we talked not too long ago about peak interior design business opening.

[A]

Right.

[B]

And sort of.

[C]

Are we looking at that in a rearview mirror?

[B]

Yeah, I feel like perhaps we. Perhaps we are. And maybe that's one of the signs. Finally, Warren, in talking about this, you and I talked not too long ago about all of this pent up home equity that we kept thinking at any moment was going to be drawn down in some meaningful way. And you were encouraging companies, I think quite rightly to focus on that customer who might not be moving, but who might have an awful lot of equity in their home. I'm not sure if we've seen meaningful signs of it being drawn down. What's your sense of that?

[D]

No.

[B]

Okay. Once again, the answer is clear. It's a resounding no.

[D]

Yeah, I think we all projected that existing homeowners would start pumping money into their homes. The equity is there and they've decided, well, if we're not going to sell, we're going to, we're going to make this place look nicer and live here. And you just haven't seen it. So you look at Depot and Lowe's numbers, which to me are the best indicators of the home remodeling. Business and they're not great. Maybe they're a little better than the DIY guys. And Depot and Lowe's are both focusing more on the pro and contractor side, and those are the guys that are doing the bigger projects. So, yeah, it's there, but it's relative. So it basically doesn't suck as much as the other side of the business. So, yeah.

[B]

Yeah. You know, and I'm really curious as to why that is. Why haven't people drawn down on that more? There was some speculation that people. Now that we see rates are potentially going lower, although the Fed says there's only one foreseeable rate cut coming next year, that certainly could change. But do you think it's people just waiting for rates to go even lower? Do you think it's. They think prices are going to come down and so they're waiting. There does seem to be all of this home equity and there's all this money in money markets, and yet it just doesn't seem to be moving into home spending in a meaningful way.

[D]

It's a good question. I don't really know what the reason is. I think consumers are still spooked. They still read all this stuff and hear this stuff, and they're starting to see unemployment numbers just creep up a little bit and they're reading about big tech companies laying off zillions of people and they're starting to be some worries out there that. Am I next? So definitely cautious out there.

[B]

No, no, it's a good point. Fred, do you want to add something there?

[E]

I was just going to say today, I think consumers are as frozen as the brands looking at all this chaos. They don't know if three months from now they're going to be spending half the price or double the price. So they just don't do anything. I also think there's still an overhang from COVID I think a lot of people renovated then and there's fewer numbers of those people because of that big boom.

[B]

And we're still not far enough away.

[A]

From all of that.

[E]

Yeah, it's only been in many cases, 4, 5, 3 years for people and you're looking at more like a window of seven plus for these kinds of things. I think there's a couple different things things going on there.

[B]

So we've got a few more years. In other words, for no next year.

[E]

Get your fix in 26, Dennis.

[B]

There you go. Get your fix in 26. Let's move on and talk about. You mentioned Warren, Home Depot and Lowe's. Let's look at some of the big retailers, some of the publicly traded stocks in the retail space, because it's been a mixed bag. RH has had a challenging year, down close to 60% as we go into the recording, although they've bounced in recent days coming off of their numbers. And at the same time, Wayfair, which got dramatically cut, rallied up 114% this year. And then the rest all sort of fall in the middle. What's your, what's your sense of what's been going on for the publicly traded retailers, Warren?

[D]

Wayfair's sort of the big enigma this year because the stock shouldn't be up that much. And.

[E]

You know, someone should tell somebody.

[D]

Yes, yes, I want an investigation. And their numbers are just not that much better. You know, they're less worse than they used to be. And people are saying, well, the stores are really going to make a big difference. You know, they got eight stores and, or something like that. Only one of them is a, is a full line Wayfair store. The, the second one doesn't open until next spring and, and the third one until the fall. So in an $11 billion company, a couple of stores are not, are not pushing the needle. So they just don't make any sense. You talk about rh. RH is just a delight to follow because they're always doing something of interest and always going in some crazy direction. And I still think in the long term, RH is a great company that I would not bet against. They've got that sector of the market. Nobody else is there at the scale they're doing it. And they've got a lot more upside potential. The overseas stores that Europe, again, they're going to be a rounding error for a while, but they've got more markets to go into in the US and so I think they're a good retailer to follow.

[B]

Okay, well, follow them. We do, Warren. No problem there. We're following them pretty.

[E]

What Warren doesn't know is that we just talked about them for 15 million.

[B]

We just went on and on because that's what we do here at Business of Home. But Caitlin, you want to add something there?

[C]

I do. I mean, you know, Warren, you just said those European stores are going to be a rounding error. But, you know, I think when you, for a while, when you talk to the design industry about those European stores, you know, so many people say something like nobody's actually going to want to shop that or the furniture is going to be too big. You know, I think there has been a lot of naysaying around some of that European expansion. I hung out for a day in RH Paris in late September, a couple weeks after it had opened. And the first thing everybody did who, when they walked in was pull out their phone. You know, first their jaw drops, then they pull out their phone. They take a bunch of pictures, you know, and there was this beauty and this glamour and this. You know, it really does glow, like being in a honeycomb. But when. When that wears off. I followed around a bunch of French people who were having conversations with sales associates about buying sofas. They were asking about measurements. They were asking about delivery. They were asking when they could get it. People want to buy the art off the walls, which was not originally intended to be for sale. And so I think, you know, for anyone who's looking at that business on paper and says, oh, that's not going to work, I wouldn't bet against it either.

[D]

It's the same thing everybody said when RH opened their big US Galleries. This is not going to work. Nobody wants to go in these stores and the stuff is too big and nobody wants to.

[C]

And no one wants to eat in a furniture store. Oh, yes, right.

[D]

Nobody wants to eat. Yes.

[C]

I had a really good steak.

[D]

Yeah. It's going to be an experience that's going to take a while to get there. And no American brand has penetrated the European market in this way. In fact, most of them this side of McDonald's and Marlboro cigarettes have failed. But RH continually does things that nobody else does.

[E]

Right now there's some executive at our house, which is up 20% over the year. Why are you guys singing the praises of the company that's down 60%?

[A]

Exactly.

[B]

Why aren't you talking about us more? We're the scrappy up and coming. We're going to be. But go ahead, Fred.

[E]

I was just going to say, if you look at these stock results over the year, it's tough to pull a thread out of all of them because they really reflect where each company is at. I think RH is down 60% because they're so overextended. They owe 2 point some billion dollars. There's a lot of skepticism around what all that debt's going to amount to. Williams Sonoma has run a tight ship among difficult conditions. So they're basically flat. I think, Warren, the enthusiasm around Wayfarers is that they were profitable for the first time outside of COVID this year.

[D]

Agreed.

[E]

So the idea is, okay, they've got this machine that works now, so there's a lot of upside potential. It also took a huge haircut. Wayfarer's really down off its all time high. So it's 100% growth has to be seen in that light. There's a lot of different stories from all these companies. I think the only overriding thread to me is that like everybody was just judged against how they did against a challenging backdrop. I think Wayfair is the outlier in the sense that it was up so much because I would say Williams Sonoma had a great year, but they're slightly down basically flat over the year. And it's because I don't think anyone's that excited about the overall sector on Wall Street. I don't think they see, oh, here's why Miller Noel is going to make 5,000 times as much money in five years. So. So I don't know. I think a lot of investors are overall skeptical and I think Wayfair is maybe the one company that has an angle that the others don't. But Dennis, what do you think? You follow this stuff more closely than all of us.

[B]

I think we have to remember that during COVID when everybody went insane tripping over themselves to buy RH and Wayfair and all of these stocks and everybody, they couldn't get enough sofas. And Wayfair used to trade over $300 a share and it fell all the way down to 25. So this enormous rally that we're talking about might in some circles be nothing more than what they call a dead cat bounce. And no offense to Oscar, your beloved cat Warren, the alive cat bounce. But I think that's, you know, you look at a chart, kind of looks like this thing had just gotten so low that I think a lot of people just felt, let's just take a chance. And then they did come out and found some efficiencies and they've cut some costs and. And they look like they might have some things figured out. But it really is just a reminder of how carried away people got with these stocks during COVID how much they had fallen and how much of a correction that they had endured. I think that for so many of these companies, it's really remarkable how long the challenge has been and how much they've had to cut back on. And I think in many cases they're not done. It would not surprise me to see some major, major announcements continue to come out of some of these companies.

[A]

That might be another one of my predictions coming up.

[B]

But I think people are not done kind of taking out the green visor and the pencil and saying we need to work some things down. The funny thing about RH before I come to you, Fred, is that everyone that I talk to and they love to gripe or they love to the point at the hilarity of this or that or the restaurants or Paris, but they all say, but don't underestimate Gary Friedman and don't underestimate rh. And so that's part of the fun of covering it is that what you borrowed two and a half billion and you bought back all this stock and the stock's fallen dramatically since then. But you're opening in Paris and you're opening in Mayfair and you're gonna open in Milan and you've got this huge new collection that's coming out and you bought Denison Lean and Formation and all of that. But then, but don't count out Gary Friedman. Don't underestimate what he's capable of doing. So it's fascinating and enjoyable on so many levels. But what did you want to add to that, Fred?

[E]

Just one final note. Like we're looking at all these big publicly traded companies. Some of them are up, some of them are down. They're all basically okay, I think. But if you look at the picture for independent furniture retailers this year, they all had terrible years. I think think every week in furniture today there's a story about this 75 year old company, this 100-year-old company. I think that was a secular trend that was already happening. These companies are already struggling for a variety of reasons, but the tariffs, the uncertainty, the frozen housing market, it really matters for those smaller players and I just don't think there's anything that's going to stop those. I think next year will be more of the same. I think these companies, whether their stock goes up or down, are relatively well insulated and I think a lot of the indies are in trouble.

[A]

We're taking a quick break to remind designers about John Rosselli and Associates. Your go to destination for custom design solutions and an unparalleled selection of furniture, lighting, textiles and wall covering. Celebrating 75 years of innovation. John Roselli partners with leading brands to offer endless customization options, ensuring every project is as unique as your vision. With a reputation for outstanding service and inspiring collections, they're here to support you every step of the way. Visit John Rosselli.com or explore their showrooms to discover how they can elevate your next design project. Follow them on Instagram for even more inspiration at johnrasselli Associates. And now back to the show.

[B]

Shifting gears a little bit. We're going to talk about design centers. There's been a lot going on in those spaces in the past year. Fred, do you want to talk to us a little bit about some of what we've seen happen in the past year with some design centers?

[E]

Sure. Well, it's one design center in particular, but in 2024, Coen Brothers Realty lost control of the Dakota, and that was kind of a big story at the time. In 2025 this year, they lost control of the decorative center Houston, which brings down the total Coen Brothers Realty count to two. They still own at press time, the D and D building here in New York and the PDC in Los Angeles. I really think that's a big story because you've had this one entity control the biggest design centers in four markets or four big design centers, and now they own half as many. And that really reshapes the landscape of what could happen. I wonder, is this something that really matters? What do you guys think about this sort of Cohen's empire slowly getting chipped away at? What are the effects of that?

[C]

I think it is good for the people who work in those buildings. I think it is good for the people who shop in those buildings. As a very baseline starting point, I think we've seen the property management companies coming in on behalf of ownership, the new ownership of these buildings really reinvesting in people, in programming, in very basic things like flowers and plants in the lobbies, potentially restaurants, better climate management, you know, having plumbing that works, you know, functional elevators. It is interesting to me how much making them an enjoyable place to be in can improve, you know, the outcome of some of those showrooms and the way that people want to engage with the showroom staff who work there. So I think, you know, on that level, it's certainly important. There's another piece which is just that the more design centers you own, the more interesting conversation you can maybe have about leasing. I think maybe we'll start to see more shifts in where people want to be in different cities, because there's sort of different strings attached as we sort of reshake out, you know, who owns what where. I feel like, Dennis, you had such a great conversation with Jamestown talking about kind of where they're investing, where they're moving, and also where it sounds like they might be reading between the lines, interested in moving. And, I mean, I think that has a huge upside for the design industry as their plans for 2026 continue to roll out.

[B]

Exactly. And I was thinking about that conversation with Michael Phillips, in part because I think. And why I think this conversation is so much bigger than just Charles Cohen and those particular design centers. I think this was very much a year where a lot of people came out and said, yeah, no design center is actually really important. And a few years ago, we might have been thinking differently or we might have imagined that that landscape would look very different than it does today. I think there's a feeling among many that. And maybe they're not giant design centers in some of these smaller markets, but there is a need for people to come and to gather and for product to be available. And so I think a lot more people are looking for, whether it's this interesting model opening up in Charles just recently that will continue to expand in the Navy Yard that Jamestown is doing. And also I think just some smaller spaces around the country that are popping up and people trying to figure out how do they show up in some of these outer markets in a meaningful way. I think the design center model is one that seems to have a lot more legs to it than people, as I say, would have imagined. I also think what is quite dramatic is many of these big companies, as we were just talking about at one point, were negotiating with the same landlord for four key markets for them and now no longer have to sort of say, oh, well, if I want to do this in Florida, I've got to do this in la, and I've got to do this in New York. And so I think that Charles COHEN Going from 4 to 2 is very significant. And I do think.

[A]

And again, is this another one of.

[B]

My predictions that maybe you're stealing all my predictions? Maybe there won't be even two in the coming year? I don't know. What do you think, Fred?

[E]

Yeah, I mean, I think that if you own four design centers, there's a strong motivation to hold on to all of them. Every design center you lose. There's less of a motivation to hold on to the ones that you have because the efficiencies go down. So I do think. I think there's a very strong chance that there'll be a motivation to sell the remaining two. And as Caitlin said, Michael Phillips was not so subtly saying that he wouldn't mind helping out with that if that comes to pass. So it's possible that Jamestown will be the new de facto landlord in the design industry. Who knows if that will happen? It's certainly a long ways off, but it's possible. I think it's worth thinking about what their vision for the design center of the future, actually, is. One thing that you've seen in the two spaces I can think of right now is that in Charleston and the Boston Design center, they've tried to mix design and retail closely. So I don't think their vision is it's a design center that's locked off from the public. I think the vision is we're going to try and energize the space by having cool restaurants getting consumers in there, too, kind of making it feel a little bit more alive with more traffic. And so I don't know if they would do that with the D and D and the PDC if they were indeed to at some point, come to own them. But it's interesting to think about that version of a design center, one that's like, a little more open and a little more, you know, has more people coming in and out of it. It's interesting, like, with a, you know, a building like adac, which is by all accounts a very successful design center. You were talking with Dan Cahoon of Jerry Perry, and even in a building that's really working, he was talking about having to go on the road and kind of introduce, you know, the showroom to designers in these smaller markets. So I think it's, you know, design centers have definitely proved their worth. We're not talking about getting rid of them like we might have been during COVID but. But what you need to do seems to change every year. And you see brands like Schumacher and Kravit kind of taking swings on both approaches. They have their own standalones, they have their design center showrooms. They have their showrooms and retail strip malls. And I feel a little bit more for the small brands who have to make a hard choice. I wonder what's going to happen with those people who have to, I can only afford one showroom. What do I do? I think that's a difficult decision in 2025, and it will be in 2026.

[B]

Moving on, let's talk about the other hot topic of the year, and that is AI. It just seemed to be a subject that, once again, some people loved it, some people hated it, some people say, no, I'll never be using it. And yet some polls REVEAL More than 80% of designers are using it. So I'm curious where we land for that. And I guess, Fred, I'm going to start with you. What you think think were some of the most important developments of the year when it came to AI?

[E]

Yeah, it's funny that you should say that. There is this, dare I say it, bifurcation in the way that people treat AI. It really is this funny thing where when it's the tools that help you, you're like, oh, it's great. Yeah, ChatGPT helps me with this. But when you're thinking, oh, is this going to do my job? You're like, this is a menace. There really is this kind of crazy thing that happens with AI. But I think to me, the biggest development that mattered for the design industry is that ChatGPT and Gemini, Google's chatbot, got really good at a lot of the stuff that prior only specialized design engines were doing. So now ChatGPT is pretty darn good at interior design, it's pretty darn good at visualizing. Google released this thing called Nano Banana that we were talking about a lot this year. And I think that's important because ChatGPT is the one that people know the name of, of. It's the one that the average person and indeed the average designer has heard about when they start using it. And it's actually good at the stuff that they do in their day to day business. I think that makes a big difference. And I think a lot of the E design, not E design, but AI powered design startups have kind of crashed out or hit a dead end and the big engines are doing the stuff that they promised to do. And I think as you said, some surveys say up to 81% of designers use it. I think next year, year beyond, everyone's going to be using it all the time, every day. I don't think that even the holdouts will be able to hold out forever.

[B]

Yeah, no, I completely agree with you there. Caitlin, what do you want to add there?

[C]

I went to a really interesting presentation a few weeks ago where a futurist basically said that we will be. Right now there's sort of this panic around college kids using AI to write their essays or whatever it is. And so, okay, now you have to write your essay in the classroom so that you have to do it yourself. And he said in a couple years we're going to be in a place where we're actually graduating young people who we're not teaching them to know the answers, we're teaching them to ask the right questions. And that AI is going to be a really powerful force in reshaping how we think, reshaping how we prepare for the workforce. And I think we're at the really, really early stages of that for design. But it for me was a really profound way to change my thinking about how we as an industry prepare for what AI is going to bring to our us, what it's going to sort of unlock for us, and where it can really save time and help designers kind of recapture some of the time they'd lost from other things.

[B]

Agreed. Warren, what's your sense of the impact that it's already starting to have in the retail world and what's your take on where this all might lead?

[D]

We saw a game changer this year, which was Walmart having software with, with Chap GPT that allows a shopper to order directly within the AI platform and they don't have to go back onto Walmart. So it's not just, you know, what color, what color T shirt should I buy? It's buy this T shirt and hit this button and you can buy it. And. And so I think that's a, that's a seminal change in the buying process, but also the consumer psyche. And that goes back to how consumers will deal with interior designers, which is they will just expect that AI will be there to help them in whatever the process is. This is just will change the mindset of consumers. To me, that was a seminal moment of 25 was the Walmart program. And you're seeing other retailers already copying that.

[B]

Well, I think that could well be the case. Shall we move on to the end of the show here and get ready not just for predictions this time we are going to ask for that.

[A]

I've suggested several throughout the show.

[D]

You've already done that, Dennis. There's nothing left here.

[B]

But first we wanted to try something a little bit different and, and talk about a person or a company or perhaps a news story that will stay with you that you heard or learned about this past year that you can imagine staying with you into next year. Caitlin, do you want to kick us off?

[C]

Sure. Mine is a pair of interviews that I did this year with Duane Bergman, a designer in Florida. We had a conversation on Trade Tales, our other podcast, and then he came back onto the show to answer another designer's question about how to buy or sell a design firm, something he has personal experience in. And, you know, I think in not just a year, but in a time where we're seeing more and more designers sort of think about what their end game is with their design business, where succession is a topic that is more and more kind of in the industry. Zeitgeist. He delivered such a powerful masterclass on what you're actually buying when you buy a design firm, how to value it, what a successful transition should look like what you want from that transaction, those tips, those ways of framing what a design firm's actually worth has really reshaped the way I thought about it and the way I wanted to approach my conversations about succession moving forward.

[B]

Interesting. Warren, anything come up for you along those lines?

[D]

The one that I think will stick with me in 26 is Macy's. We started to see the first shoots of some really good retailing there. That hasn't been apparent in a very long time and it may not last and it may end up being a dead end. But they're doing some interesting stuff and unlike some other retailers, not necessarily at home. You know, I'm very. There's that word. Cynical again about retailers like Gap and Victoria's Secret that, that I think are, are not truly turning themselves around. I think Macy's is just visited the Herald Square store and it was beautiful. And again, this is not necessarily at home, but the beauty department is really well done on the main floor and they're just doing some good stuff. I like their Christmas TV campaign. And so I'm gonna be intrigued to follow Macy's next year and see if this is for real interesting.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Well that's another stock that's had a nice bounce since the low, Warren, so we'll have to keep an eye on Macy's. Fred, what about you?

[E]

Just in time for a miracle on 34th Street, I might say. Warren, sorry, it's not too late for bad jokes. One company that really stuck with me this year is Quint's. I wrote about them towards the end of the year about them getting into home a little bit. And I kind of thought like, oh, this is maybe just a weird little story that I'm writing. And almost immediately after writing it, several people reached out and said, oh yeah, Quince was at High Point Market and everyone was buzzing about them and they're hiring people from the upholstery players. And so Quince is clearly making a big move in home and I think we'll see a lot more from them next year. I think they're just sort of at the center of a lot of things like the obsession with dupes, which is now they're brand washing or dupe washing or something William Sonoma accused them of. There's that. There's sort of the fact that the affordability crisis is very real. People want a real low price and Quint seems to offer some version of that. They're one of the few venture backed companies that does a lot in home. That raised $1,500 million this year. They got money to burn. I think Quint's was a company that I took a little bit of a lark on just to see, well, what's this all about? I ended up coming away thinking that they're going to be a company that matters a lot, that we're going to talk a lot more about next year. We'll see.

[B]

Interesting. Well, I'm always eager to see if people really do jump on the Quint sofas and buy a bunch of them in the coming year. Someone sent me a video recently of somebody loving their Quint sofa, so maybe there's something to it.

[C]

Dennis, what will stick with you this year?

[B]

Well, I think a conversation that I'm certainly going to be having more and more, I imagine, with people, and people are coming to me more and more with is one that we were having just recently about Vertical video on Instagram. And what's going to matter more, your personality or your portfolio? Portfolio. And I think there is a. I don't want to say there's going to be a revolt, but I do think in some cases there's going to be a bit of a rethinking about how important it is for your personality to be driving that presence on social media. And also, I think, and I think many designers are hoping this will be the case, a bit of a filtering and perhaps, perhaps a recognition that often some of the people doing some of the best work aren't spending a lot of time on social media and aren't sort of presenting themselves in that same way. And I guess more than anything, I want it to be okay. I want it to be okay for you not to feel like you have to put on a show behind the scenes. And I think that's a conversation we'll be having a lot more in the coming year. So I look forward to that. Finally, we've come to predictions. Caitlin.

[E]

The time where we all embarrass ourselves.

[B]

Caitlyn.

[E]

Or rather, I embarrass myself.

[B]

No, no, no, Fred. We're gonna. We're gonna recall some of the. Some of the past ones. But go ahead, Caitlin. What?

[C]

I don't remember what I predicted for last year. I mean, I think my. My Hope is that 2026 is a year of smoother sailing. When I posted on Instagram earlier today, you know, saying we were doing this and asking what people thought, you know, so many people said some version of like, look, we've been able to be nimble, we've been able to react, but it is tiresome. And I would love to not have to. That is my hope. I would say that my prediction is actually that 2026 is going to be a year where we see people taking some big swings. So many companies, you know, actually us at business, of home included, got a little bit of the way into 2025. It saw how disruptive tariffs were going to be and took a lot of our big ideas that were supposed to be for this year and really put them on the shelf so that we could zero in on this tariff situation, figure it out, you know, in our case, you know, rise to the occasion and cover it appropriately. But if you're a design firm, you know, figure out what you're going to put on this invoice, figure out how much that container is going to cost you. If you're a brand, you know, you're doing all sorts of gymnastics. My prediction is that 2026 is going to be. When we see people feel like maybe there is a sense of normalcy and they reach back for those big ideas and start to make some moves.

[B]

Okay, well, that's hopeful. I like that. I like that, Warren. Go ahead. Go ahead. Bring us down, Warren. Bring us back to Earth.

[D]

Well, I've written down all the things you've predicted already over the last hour, so. So I'm just going to regurgitate those because I think you'll have to. You'll have to agree with me. Yeah, I do think we're going to see the full effect of these tariffs in the first half of the year, and that's not going to be good for the country, for the business, or for any of us. So that's the overriding factor for at least the first half of. Of 26. So I think we're looking at more chaos.

[E]

I'm not as optimistic.

[D]

I hope Caitlin is right and I'm wrong.

[B]

Well, we're going to find out soon.

[C]

I think they can exist in parallel, to be fair.

[B]

There you go. That's the K. Fred, is Houzz going to come public? I mean, just tell us, is this going to be the year?

[E]

Yeah. We got how many more days left in here? Exactly 15 days.

[B]

I don't know.

[E]

A bit little surprise. IPO. I did predict how this would go public. I've predicted it before. I've always been wrong. In my defense, there was a lot of optimism around the stock market this year, which actually did do well, but there just weren't many big IPOs. I'm tempted to predict again, that's going to go public just to keep the Joke going and it may well happen. But I'm going to do two other predictions. You kind of stole one of mine, Dennis. I'm going to make it anyway. We've lost. I think Charles Cohen has lost control of one design center per year for the past two years. Years. I'm going to predict that the trend will continue and that another design center of his will change hands. I don't think that's crazy. It may happen, it may not. But I think that's a distinct possibility. Finally, just tagging on something that Warren was talking about. Walmart has this integration with ChatGPT where you can search on ChatGPT for products. Walmart will be Click to buy product. I think basically every furniture retailer in every big furniture retailer in America will be on these platforms by this time next year. Except for rh. I don't think Gary Friedman's going to want to have his product on ChatGPT. I think he's going to hold out. He's very anti Internet in general, and I think he'll be one of the last big retailers to make a deal interesting. Okay, Dennis, what about you? What are your predictions?

[B]

So Charles Cohen is one design center, a specific design center, or what you.

[E]

Want to call it? I don't want to. I don't want to.

[B]

Okay, okay.

[E]

All right.

[B]

Okay. Because, I mean, I mean, one of my predictions was going to be that the D and D building will have a new owner by the end of next year. So that was going to be one of mine because I think that. And I see just before coming on the air, I see that 753rd Avenue is going to be put up for sale. And so I think that some sales continue in the Cohen portfolio. I did mention earlier that the Supreme Court. I do. I'm going to go out on a limb and I do think the Supreme Court is going to vote down the tariffs. To Warren's point, I'm not sure it's going to make that much of a difference. I think it could. But I also think we're going to see another big private equity acquisition in the home space of a big brand, a big household brand that we talk a lot about. I think 2026. I think we haven't talked a lot about private equity this year. And it's interesting because private equity companies themselves have actually been underperforming the S and P. And we talk about. About AI and so much of the investment that's going on in that space and private equity hasn't been at the forefront of conversation. But I think there's going to be a big acquisition in 2026, so stay tuned for that. So, I mean, between the D and D building changing hands and a big private equity coming in and people feeling better, I mean, there's any number of things that could be happening. 2026 sounds like it could be an amazing year on so many levels. We'll see, we'll see how much, if any of this comes true. But one thing is true, and that is it has been an absolute pleasure to speak with all three of you on all of these various issues. Caitlin, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, Warren. Thank you.

[D]

You're very welcome.

[B]

Thanks for showing us the cynical side of the your of yourself. We hadn't, we hadn't.

[D]

No one's ever seen it before.

[B]

Yeah, we hadn't seen that before. And Fred, what can I say? I don't want to do this without you.

[E]

Well, I'll see you again in 20 minutes for another hour long conversation about RH.

[B]

Can't wait. Thank you all.

[A]

Thanks for listening. If you'd like to keep up with the latest design industry news, visit us [e-mail] where you can sign up for our newsletter, browse job listings and join our BoH Insider community for access to online workshops, a free print subscription, and much more. If you have a note for the podcast, drop us a [e-mail] if you're enjoying these conversations, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps others to discover the show. This show was produced by Fred Nicholas and edited by Michael Castaneda. I'm Dennis Scully. Thanks again for listening and I'll see you next week.