Story of the Week (DR):

War

Saudi Aramco CEO issues stark warning: Iran war could bring ‘catastrophic’ shock to global oil

Prediction markets face questions on Iran war bets, from regime change to nuclear detonation

The Maduro Capture (Jan 2026): Just hours before the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a new Polymarket account wagered $30,000 on his removal

Israeli Military Indictments (Feb 2026): At least two individuals in the Israeli defense forces were reportedly indicted for using classified intelligence to place winning bets on the specific dates of military strikes in Iran

National Security Risk: A recent report by Responsible Statecraft warns that officials with the power to influence military timing could alter operations to maximize their payout

The Atlantic Council recently warned that foreign adversaries can "weaponize the odds" by dumping money into a thinly traded market to create a false narrative that a country is about to collapse, potentially triggering a real-world panic or bank run.

Kalshi (private)

1/13/25: Kalshi names Donald Trump Jr. as strategic advisor

Polymarket (college dropout Shayne Coplan)

8/26/25: Kalshi Advisor Donald Trump Jr. Joins Rival Polymarket Board

Trump Jr.’s 1789 Capital is making an eight-figure investment in the controversial prediction-market company.

AI Jobs

Anthropic just mapped out which jobs AI could potentially replace. A ‘Great Recession for white-collar workers’ is absolutely possible

The most AI-exposed group is 16 percentage points more likely to be female, earns 47% more on average, and is nearly four times as likely to hold a graduate degree compared to the least exposed group.

Sam Altman admits AI is killing the labor-capital balance—and says nobody knows what to do about it

Oracle expected to slash thousands of jobs as massive AI spending creates financial cash crisis

Layoffs are feeling awfully tempting for a lot of companies right now

CEOs are using one number in the AI age to decide how many people they still need

Revenue per employee

Patreon's CEO says AI will be a 'bloodbath for the world's creative people' unless tech companies pay up

Atlassian slashes 10% of workforce to 'self-fund' investments in AI and enterprise sales

The unexpected 92,000 drop in payrolls is a clue we might be reading the AI jobs narrative all wrong

Worker pain

AI Is Forcing Employees to Work Harder Than Ever

AI Job Loss Is Breaking the Psyche of Workers, Psychiatrist Warns

‘AI brain fry’ is real — and it’s making workers more exhausted, not more productive, new study finds

Economist Dambisa Moyo says CEOs must play a role in sustaining the consumer class as AI eliminates jobs

This could only happen if we weren’t controlled by the TechBro Dropout Gang

CII

‘Not a goodbye…’: What Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen told employees after announcing decision to step down

Shantanu Narayen, CEO of Adobe for 18 years, will step down once a successor is appointed, while continuing as board chairman.

Google Hands Sundar Pichai $692M Package Tied to AI Bets

Package uniquely ties executive pay to Waymo autonomous vehicle and Wing drone delivery venture performance

Compensation structure sets precedent for linking CEO pay to specific AI business unit success rather than overall company metrics

So now CEOs can either game their bonus by obsessively focusing on one thing or doom the rest of the company by obsessively focusing on one thing or both

As You Sow Files Lawsuit Challenging Chubb’s Refusal to Put Shareholder P...