Loading summary
Transcript40 lines
- [00:10]
A
It's November 8, 2023, at Eli Lilly's headquarters in Indianapolis. David Ricks, Eli Lilly's CEO, is speaking with reporters. Ricks smiles. He's here to make an announcement he thinks will finally give Eli Lilly the upper hand against Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk. As of this morning, the FDA has given its approval for Zepbound. Zepbound is Eli Lilly's once weekly weight management drug, and this approval means the company can officially enter the GLP1 weight loss battle. Novo Nordisk has had a more than two year head start with their GLP1 weight loss drug, Wegovy. But Zepbound could change the game for Lilly. Ricks continues. We know there's a large group of Americans waiting for answers, and Zepbound has the highest efficacy we've seen in an approved drug so far. Did you catch that? Studies show that Zepbound is actually more effective than Wegovy for weight loss. Later studies confirmed that patients lost around 20% of their body weight on Zepbound compared to around 13% on WeGovy. That might seem like a small difference, but this 7% could supercharge Eli Lilly's position in the market. Ricks goes on to explain that Zepbound doesn't just mimic the GLP1 hormone like WeGovy's Semaglutide does. Zepbound's active ingredient, Tirzepatide, also mimics an insulin hormone called gip, which not only helps curb your appetite, but is believed to help the body process sugar and fat more efficiently as well. This dual prong pronged approach gives Zepbound the edge in weight loss. Journalists start peppering Ricks with questions. He smiles, knowing that Zepbound is about to own the GLP1 market. That day, Eli Lilly's stock hits an all time high. Over at Novo Nordisk CEO Lars Freudgaard, Jurgensen is in his office when the phone rings. It's a journalist who's been covering the company over the years. He tells Jorgensen what Ricks told reporters. Jurgensen nods. He's been dreading this moment for months. He's been tracking how well Zepbound has been doing in clinical trials, and Eli Lilly's pricing it at around $1,000 a month, which makes it about $300 cheaper than WeGovy. Jurgensen turns on the news and a moment later he watches as an anchor breaks the Zep Bound. Suddenly, his office feels stuffy. Between the Semaglutide shortage, the compounding pharmacies, and now Zeb Bound, Jurgensen knows It's just a matter of time before Novo Nordisk's stock takes a big hit.
- [03:15]
B
When planning for your future, you want someone with a history of keeping their.
- [03:19]
A
Word year after year.
- [03:21]
B
For nearly 160 years, Pacific Life has been a trusted name in the industry. But that isn't just a number. It's experience that matters. It's 160 years of promises held, helping generations retire with confidence, protect their loved ones and plan for whatever comes next. Whether you're looking for life insurance, employee benefits or retirement income solutions, when your future is on the line, you want history on your side. And believe me, Pacific Life has been there. Always there through changing times, always focused on your needs, ready to secure your tomorrow. Ask a financial professional how Pacific Life can help you feel prepared for what's next. Pacific Life Insurance Company, Omaha, Nebraska. And in New York, Pacific Life and Annuity, Phoenix, Arizona. Because with Pacific Life, you're not just planning for the future. You're partnering with trusted experience, closing the.
- [04:15]
A
Books, getting your people paid and bringing on new hires. Running a small or mid sized business can be exciting and also a little chaotic. Workday Go makes simplifying your business well, simple. Imagine all the important aspects of your company. Hr, finance and payroll, all on the AI platform. No more juggling multiple systems, no more worrying about growing too fast. Just the full power of Workday Go, helping small to mid sized businesses like yours scale and run more smoothly. Think about what that means. Seamless onboarding for new team members, real time insights at your fingertips and payroll that works perfectly every single time. So you can focus on the big picture and go after your big ambitions. And with Workday you can activate quickly in as little as 30 to 60 business days. So simplify your business. Go for growth. Go with Workday Go. From wondery. I'm David Brown and this is Business Wars. When pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk first started developing GLP1 drugs in the 1980s, they thought they had a game changing diabetes treatment on their hands. But they soon realized they could change even more lives and perhaps reshape their company's future by using semaglutide for weight loss as well as. As demand for semaglutide exploded in the early 2000 and twenties, Novo Nordisk became the most valuable corporation in all of Europe. But their main competitor, American pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly, was right behind them, developing their own GLP1 drug for weight loss. That drug became zapbound and early studies produced better results than Novo Nordisk's version. And while Novo Nordisk was the first to market with its weight loss product, Eli Lilly is quickly gaining on them. The two longtime competitors are now locked in a battle not just for market share, but also for public perception of their weight loss drugs. They're racing to release newer, more effective and more cost affordable versions, while also looking to enter new arenas. Both companies are pushing ahead with additional research and development, each hoping to expand their breakthrough medications beyond weight loss to treat other diseases. And each one is determined to get there first. This is episode two, the Next Injection. It's January 2024, and with FDA approval of Zepbound in hand, Eli Lilly launches a new service designed to boost sales even more. It's called Lilly, a direct to consumer online sales platform. Instead of scheduling a doctor's appointment, getting a prescription and heading to the pharmacy, patients can just go online, meet a prescriber virtually, and have Zepbound delivered straight to their homes. You see what's happening here? Sometimes how you sell can matter more than what you sell. Direct sales lets you simplify choices, trim fees, talk to the customer without having to rely on intermediaries who may have their own business agendas. There's an important but often overlooked lesson here. If you face copycats, pair a trusted name with easier access and watch the loyalty follow. Bottom Line Sometimes the best strategy isn't a new product, but a new path to the same product. In August 2024, Eli Lilly makes another stunning it will start selling lower doses of Zepbound in vials rather than preloaded. This move lowers the price for a month's supply from around $1,000 a month to around $500 a month, which puts Eli Lilly's pricing much closer to its off brand competitors. Compounded versions of Tirzepatide, Zepbound's main ingredient, typically cost between $250 and $450 a month. But Eli Lilly has something those versions don't the benefit of being a name brand with consumer trust and FDA approval. With these changes, Eli Lilly projects a 30% jump in annual revenue, up to roughly $45 billion for 2024. Over at Novo Nordisk, the pressure is mounting, and its troubles are only just beginning.
- [09:31]
C
Education, labor and Pensions Committee will come to order.
- [09:35]
A
It's September 2024, and Lars Furagard Jurgensen is sitting in front of a U.S. senate committee on Capitol Hill. Inside the hearing room, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders props up a huge chart on a tripod behind him. It lists the cost of Wegovy in other countries. And then Senator Sanders begins his remarks.
- [09:56]
C
The issue that we are discussing this Morning is not complicated. It has everything to do with the chart behind me which shows that Novo Nordisk's drug Wegovy is sold for $265 in Canada, $186 in Denmark, $137 in Germany and $92 in the United Kingdom.
- [10:23]
A
Sanders chart shows that Wegovy is still around $1,300 a month. That's more than 14 times the price in the UK. Sanders says this discrepancy is immoral, an example of corporate greed. He continues, delivering a pointed message for Jurgensen.
- [10:42]
C
Novo Nordisk has developed game changing drugs which if made affordable, can save the lives of tens of thousands of Americans every year and significantly improve the quality of life of millions more if made affordable. Nobody here is asking Novo Nordisk to provide charity to the American people. Novo Nordisk has already made billions of dollars in profit off of these products and in the coming years will make billions more. All we are saying, Mr. Jorgensen is treated the American people the same way that you treat people all over the world. Stop ripping us off.
- [11:31]
A
During the hearing, Jurgensen tries to argue that the reason Ozempic and Wegovy are so expensive in the United States is because the pricing is actually out of Novo Nordisk's control. Jurgensen places the blame on the US complex health insurance system and specifically calls out PBMs, pharmacy benefit managers. You may have heard about these. They're usually in the news because critics believe these middlemen are jacking up prescription drug prices. PBMs are supposed to act as negotiators between pharmaceutical companies, insurers and patients. They were started back in the 1960s to help insurers manage drug costs. But as they've merged and become more powerful, critics say they may now be driving prices up instead of keeping them down. Jorgensen says that if Novo Nordisk lowers the price of these drugs, the PBMs might remove them from their lists of medications covered by Insurance. But PBMs aren't the only factor. During his testimony, Jorgensen says, quoting here, we don't decide the price for patients. That's set by the insurance companies. But Bernie Sanders has a counter argument prepared. He lifts up a stack of papers and tells Jurgensen that he's holding a list of commitments in writing from all the major PBMs in the country. And every single one of them has said they won't restrict coverage for Ozempic and Wegovy if Novo Nordisk agrees to lower their list prices. Sanders says that the high prices aren't the PBM's fault. It's because Novo Nordisk refuses to play ball. Jurgensen was not expecting this maneuver. Few companies think of lawmakers as a target market, right? But make no mistake, in highly regulated industries like healthcare, there are many in the government who can sell a story about you. We've seen this more and more in recent years. A narrative about fat cat pharmaceutical companies out of step with the needs of everyday people, right? Well, complicated explanations and spreadsheets from a corporate big wig won't cut it in a Senate hearing room. You got a choice. Build headline safe pricing or prepare to face the consequences. In every industry, political risk is a customer risk. With a microphone, you control the narrative early or someone else will write your tagline. And that sure seems like what just happened here. The blowback is bitter. Now Jurgensen is desperate to prove he can keep Novo Nordisk on top and somehow find a way to lower costs without undercutting profits. But just as Jorgensen pushes to expand access, a new FDA move threatens to tighten the market. And new research sparks fresh questions about just how safe these drugs really are. The world is changing. Workplaces turn into digital landscapes, workforces are embracing hybrid work, and workloads are becoming even more reliant on cloud, all while AI is revolutionizing tech. Does your business feel secure as you navigate all these changes? No? Well, then it's time to make the switch to manageengine. Manageengine provides cutting edge cybersecurity solutions to enable smooth business operations and collaboration and allows you to securely manage all your customer data. With 18 data centers across the globe and over 20 years of experience in managing and securing digital enterprises, ManageEngine is the way to go. Take the first step towards making your organization secure. Visit cybersecurity.manageengine.com today. That's cybersecurity.M-N-E-E n g I n e.com.
- [15:36]
D
Are you scouring the web for the best Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals? Stop it. Get Rakuten Rakuten is a shopping sidekick that gets you cash back on gifts for everyone on your list. Right now you can get up to 15% cash back at the stores you love. You can even stack cash back on top of the biggest sales of the year. That's savings. On savings, it's more time shopping and less time searching. With Rakuten, you're always saving at your favorite stores on the things you're already buying. Cashback is automatically added to your account as you shop and you get paid with gift cards, PayPal or check or eligible American Express card members can even choose to earn membership reward points instead of cashback. It's truly a no brainer. Now's the time to join up to 15% cash back ends on 12 too. Plus new members will receive a welcome bonus after minimum qualifying purchases. Just go to rakuten.com, download the app or install the browser extension. That's R A K U T E N Terms and conditions apply.
- [16:48]
A
It's October 2, 2024. The FDA puts out a statement removing tirzepatide, the key ingredient in Eli Lilly zeppbound, from official shortage list. That means compounding pharmacies can no longer make their own versions of the drug. This is bad news for Jorgensen, because while Eli Lilly has amped up its production, Novo Nordisk is still struggling with shortages of its main GLP1 hormone, semaglutide. Novo Nordisk has been spending billions of dollars trying to keep up with demand. Earlier in the year they purchased three factories for $11 billion, and in June they announced plans for a new manufacturing facility outside Raleigh, North Carolina. But it won't be up and running until sometime between 2027 and 2029. Meanwhile, demand still far exceeds their supply, which means Novo Nordisk can't get off the FDA's shortage list. So Novo Nordisk decides to try a different tactic to narrow the playing field, asking the FDA to ban compounding pharmacies from making copycat versions of semaglutide. Novo Nordisk argues that semaglutide is too complex a drug to be replicated safely, and points to the dozen lawsuits they've already filed. The company says some of these compounded drugs are laced with impurities and could be unsafe for patients. You see what Novo Nordisk is doing here. When a market gets flooded with knockoffs, the temptation is to fight them in court. But you gotta consider this too. Lawsuits can sometimes be another form of advertising. After all, they keep your rival's name in circulation. A smarter play might be to compete on clarity, make your offers so trustworthy and simple that the copies look risky by comparison. You can't litigate your way into customer loyalty, but you can earn it by removing doubt faster than your lawyers can file motions. To others, like Scott Brunner, the head of a compounding pharmacy trade group, Novo Nordisk's move looks like one made out of, quote, desperation. While Novo Nordisk waits for the FDA to make a decision, prescriptions for off brand drugs continue to grow. Meanwhile, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly keep working towards building their next generation of weight loss drugs. This Next wave marks a shift. Their new drugs combine multiple synthetic hunger hormones in an effort to push weight loss results even higher. In December 2024, Novo Nordisk publishes the results of late stage trials for Cagrosema, a new drug that combines semaglutide with cagrolentide, which mimics another hunger hormone. Novo Nordisk wants to dominate the anti obesity market and they've been working on a successor to Wegovy, ideally one that will perform better than their rival's drug Zepbound. The results are promising, but they don't quite live up to the hope or the hype. Patients on Cagrosema only lost about 23% of their body weight, instead of the 25% investors had expected. Novo Nordisk shares plunged 22% following this news. One portfolio manager calls this a worst case scenario for the company, saying that Kagra Sema is only as good as Zapbound, but more complex to manufacture. That crash shows the brutal truth of R and D. Investors aren't buying science, they're buying momentum. Even pretty good results can tank a stock if expectations are over inflated. Every founder faces this problem. You promise them the moon and you're punished for reaching the stratosphere. Happens all the time. The fix? Try to manage expectations like a product launch under promise, over deliver and save the fireworks for the moment you actually get clear orbit. Still, a 23% body weight loss is well above Wegovy's current average of around 15%. And the race to make even better, more effective versions of these drugs continues. Eli Lilly is already putting its new version through trials. Their new drug, retatrutide, targets three hunger hormone receptors. It's being nicknamed Triple G. And earlier trial results from 2023 showed a 24% reduction in body weight over the course of nearly a year. Novo Nordisk is in a tough spot while Eli Lilly chases the next big breakthrough. Compounding pharmacies are still eating away at the Danish multinationals market share. And some of those smaller challengers are willing to spend big to capture the public's attention. For Jurgensen, it's starting to look like a no win situation. In February 2025, the startup Hems & Hers Health buys a minute long super bowl ad to promote their compounded version of Semaglutide, pitching it as the affordable answer to America's obesity epidemic. Something's broken and it's not our bodies, it's the system. There are medications that work, but they're priced for profits, not the patience. Jurgensen sees the commercial and he knows that an estimated 127 million other people did too. Most will assume there's no real difference between Wegovy and this compounded version. It's the same problem he's been fighting for months. Only now it's playing out in front of the largest TV audience in the US with price tags as low as $199 for a one month supply of injections and $79 for a pill. Later that month, Novo Nordisk finally gets some good news. The FDA announces that the semaglutide shortage is officially over. Novo Nordisk is finally able to keep up with demand. This means the compounding pharmacies, who have been mimicking Wegovy for more than a year now have 60 to 90 days to shut down. At least that's what they've been ordered to do. But Jurgensen knows enforcement won't be easy. And it'll be even harder to convince patients to give up the cheaper versions they've already come to trust. In March 2025, Novo Nordisk launches Novocare Pharmacy, a direct to consumer method of selling Wegovy. They copied Eli Lilly's model and are able to bring the price of Wegovy down to just $499 a month. Problem is, nobody's paying much attention. The spotlight is still on startup brands selling compounded versions of GLP1s because they're cheaper and frankly, better advertised. Still, Novo Nordisk gets a small win that month. The company's full membership in abpi, Britain's pharmaceutical trade association, is reinstated after a previous ethics violation. But in April, Eli Lilly pulls ahead again when they publish promising results for an oral version of Zepbound, an easier and more painless way to take GLP1 medication. When they make this announcement, their stock jumps about 14% while Novo Nordisk stock sinks by more than 7%. On April 29, Novo Nordisk tries to change the narrative. The company announces a new partnership with Hims and Hers Health. That's the startup that advertised on the Super Bowl. Hims and hers has basically become the most well known provider of GLP1 medications, thanks to low prices and aggressive marketing. Jurgensen and the Novo Nordisk leadership team decided that if they can't steal the spotlight, they may as well share it. Novo Nordisk will supply Wegovy through Hims and hers the same way as it sells through NovoCare for just $599 a month. It's a bold move and one that captures some media attention. Now that's an unexpected pivot. Don't you Think teaming up with a disruptor who's been eating your lunch? You know, in business, co opting a rival's megaphone can go two ways. It can be brilliant or disastrous. If the partner defines the brand louder than you do, well, congratulations. You just rented out your credibility. Partnerships really only work when both sides are guarding the message with the same kind of care. Otherwise, the leading brand is lending trust to someone else's marketing department. Jorgensen watches their stock rise from $60 a share to $64 by closing. It's not quite the boost that Eli Lilly enjoyed a few weeks ago, but he'll take it. It's May 16, 2025, and Lars Furagard Jurgensen is logging onto a Microsoft Steam call with Novo Nordisk chairman Helga Lund. He adjusts his notes and prepares for a routine catch up. But right away the tone of the conversation feels off. Lund doesn't lead with small talk. Instead, he gets right to the point. Lars, we need to discuss the future leadership of Novo Nordisk. Jurgensen frowns. Future leadership? He thought this call was about strategy, projects, maybe a future product launch, Lund continues. The board has decided it's time for a new CEO. The words hit like a punch. Jorgensen barely has time to process what's happening. After all he's built, including 26 billion dollar mega hits like Ozempic and Wegovy, he's being shown the door. Jurgensen knows the company's been struggling lately. Share price has dropped 53% over the past year, compounding pharmacies have been undercutting their prices with copycats, and they've had setbacks in their next generation trials while Eli Lilly has been racing ahead. But the decision to remove him as CEO takes him completely by surprise. The call ends and Jurgensen tries to steady himself. He'd expected a discussion, maybe even criticism, but not this. Later, he learns that the board leaked the news to the media before even telling him. The message is clear. The company needs a new direction and a leader who's up for the challenge of matching Eli Lilly's pace. But this isn't the only partnership that Novo Nordisk is ending. In June 2025, Novo Nordisk cuts ties with hims and hers, and the breakup is not pretty. The company says the telehealth platform is continuing to sell compounded versions of Wegovy, even though the FDA has ordered compounding pharmacies to stop this practice. They also accuse Hims and hers of using deceptive marketing tactics and putting patient safety at risk. Dave Moore, Novo Nordisk's executive vice president of U.S. operations, tells CNBC, Our expectation was that Hims and hers business focus would transfer toward real, safe, approved medications. When we didn't see that we had to make a choice on behalf of patients. Hims and hers fires back. Their CEO Andrew Dudham says that Novo Nordisk is, quote, misleading the public and claims the drug maker had pressured them to steer patients toward Wegovy even when it wasn't their best clinical option. He adds that his company refuses to be strong armed and will continue offering patients a range of treatments, including Wegovy. As the public dispute plays out, Novo Nordisk's stock price continues to tumble. On his final call with the media as CEO in early August, Jurgensen reveals that the amount of compounded semaglutide circulating in the US Is roughly equal to Novo Nordisk's own share of the drug, underscoring just how steep the battle against copycats will be for their new CEO. Around the same time, Novo Nordisk appoints Maziar Mike Dustar as their new CEO. He's a longtime employee who started in the mail room more than 30 years ago. Dewstar says he's known for his directness, and in his get to Know Me video he gets right to the point. But let's be honest about where we are. The competitive landscape has completely changed. Two years ago we were alone. Now everyone wants to play in obesity and diabetes. This means we need to move faster, focus harder on what we do best. Dewstar promises bold moves, but will they be enough to turn things around? Oh hey.
- [30:19]
E
Welcome to gift wrapping.
- [30:20]
D
Whoa.
- [30:20]
E
So is Saldana.
- [30:21]
F
Hey, can you wrap these please?
- [30:23]
A
Wow.
- [30:23]
E
IPhone 17s.
- [30:24]
F
You splurged at T Mobile you can get four iPhone 17s on them. The new Center Stage front camera is amazing for group selfies. It's the perfect gift for everyone.
- [30:32]
E
I'm the worst. I only got my mom a robe.
- [30:35]
F
Well, it's better than socks.
- [30:36]
E
So I have to trade in my old phone, right?
- [30:39]
F
No AT T Mobile. There's no trade ins needed when you switch. Keep your old phone or give it as a gift.
- [30:44]
E
Incredible.
- [30:45]
F
In fact, wrap up my old phone too for my Aunt Rosa. Forget that. Aunt Liz will be jealous.
- [30:49]
E
Sounds like my family drama.
- [30:51]
F
Oh, I got it. I'll give it to my abuela. I'll take reindeer paper with.
- [30:54]
A
Hey, where are you going?
- [30:55]
G
T Mobile.
- [30:56]
E
The holidays are better. AT T Mobile get four iPhone 17s on us. No trade in needed when you switch plus four lines for just 25 bucks a line. And now T Mobile is available in US cellular stores with 24 month legal credits and four eligible board inside essentials for well qualified customers. Auto pay plus taxes fees and $35 device connection charge credits and imbalance due if you pay off earlier. Cancel Contact Us Finance Agreement 256 gigabytes $830 required Visit T mobile.com I'm Indra.
- [31:20]
G
Varma and In the latest season of the Spy who We open the file on Oleg Gordievsky, the Spy who Outran the kgb. A rising star in the heart of Soviet power, Gordievsky is secretly feeding MI6 the Kremlin's deadliest secrets. For 11 years, he walked a razor's edge, exposing KGB threats that hastened the Cold War's end and helped prevent nuclear annihilation. But the KGB have a mole of their own. When they discover the truth, Gordievsky's world collapses. MI6 hatch a desperate high stakes plan to smuggle him out of Moscow, an escape that could rewrite history. Follow the Spy who on the Wondery app or wherever you listen to podcasts. Or you can binge the full season of the Spy who Outran the KGB early and ad free with wonry. Plus.
- [32:34]
A
It's September 10, 2025, and Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Dustar makes good on his promise to take bold action to revive the company. He announces a major layoff, cutting 9,000 employees, about 11% of Novo Nordisk's global workforce. The move is expected to save the company roughly $1.3 billion annually, and almost immediately their stock price inches up by about 5%. It's not much, but it's a start. A stock price jump after layoffs isn't proof of a turnaround, of course. It's more like Wall street saying, now show us the muscle. Cutting costs can reset the balance sheet, but it doesn't rebuild morale or momentum. Every leader facing a crisis should remember pruning gets you headlines, but long term growth can get you a legacy the following week. On September 17, Novo Nordisk releases a study showing promising results for their oral pill. In a recent trial, obese and overweight patients saw an average weight reduction of 16.6%. It's not a perfect drug Users can't eat or drink for 30 minutes afterward, and it still needs to be approved by the FDA, but their stock jumps another 5%. The surge doesn't last for long. As October begins, Novo Nordisk's stock starts to crash again. Wegovy is losing ground as people turn to cheaper forms of GLP1 medications. And for those who can afford it Eli Lilly's more effective Zepbound. On October 21st, some good news arrives for Novo Nordisk. The company receives expanded FDA approval for an oral version of Ozempic called Rybelsus. It's designed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes. It's a win for public health, but it's not enough to revive the company's share price. By now, the company has lost around 45% of its market value over the course of the year. As October comes to a close, there's another major shakeup at the top of Novo Nordisk. After months of turmoil, chairman Helga Lund and six board members resign after clashing with the company's controlling foundation over how quickly to overhaul the business. The Novo Nordisk foundation, which holds most of Novo's voting power, wanted faster, deeper changes given the sharp plunge in the company's value over the past year. Critics say the board stumbled on several fronts, including botching WeGovy's launch, losing ground to Eli Lilly and mismanaging the rollout of its next generation drug Cagrosema. One analyst called the board's mass exit a complete meltdown. The new board will be chaired by former CEO Lars Rieben Sorensen. In his statements to the media, he says he wants new faces on the board and emphasized a need for speed. The emphasis on urgency echoes the messaging of new CEO Mike Dustar. Around the same time, Novo Nordisk launches an acquisition spree. It acquires the San Francisco based Acero Therapeutics for up to $5.2 billion in cash, a move Novo believes will help with their overall strategy to keep capture the obesity market. Accero has a drug in its pipeline that targets liver disease that stems from obesity. Then, on October 30, Novo Nordisk makes a $9 billion bid for obesity drug maker Metsera. That company has a once a month injectable obesity treatment currently in phase two trials. The offer is nearly $2 billion higher than the offer Pfizer made in September. Novo Nordisk is confident it will win, and it needs to if it's going to revive its weight loss drug strategy. In late October, Eli Lilly announced on an earnings call that it had grabbed significant market share from Novo Nordisk, claiming IT now owned 58% of the GLP1 market in the U.S. this fall, analysts.
- [36:55]
H
Listed Novo Nordisk's stock as a hold.
- [36:58]
A
Meaning current shareholders shouldn't sell their stock.
- [37:01]
H
But they don't advise buying the stock either. It's a far cry from a few years ago, when Novo Nordisk broke open the weight loss industry. And in early November, the ground shifted once again. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly announced they'd both brokered deals with President Trump to expand coverage and lower prices for their GLP1 drugs. Under the new agreements, officials estimate that the average cost to consumers will drop to $245 per month, a savings of almost $100 per month. Additionally, about 10% of Medicare beneficiaries will be eligible for expanded access, and their copay will be reduced to no more than $50 for a month's supply. And if both companies oral pills get FDA approval and become available in 2026, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly said they'll offer them for $149 per month for Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries and people who buy the pills directly from manufacturers. The deal also included lower prices on TrumpRx, the direct to consumer prescription platform the Trump administration is launching. In exchange, the companies will avoid pharmaceutical.
- [38:16]
A
Tariffs for three years.
- [38:19]
H
Even though they're selling their star drugs at much lower prices. Analysts believe the companies are betting that these deals will greatly expand their patient base, ultimately leading to more revenue. Additionally, Novo Nordisk is looking into how GLP1s can open up a relatively new pharmaceutical frontier, the treatment of Alzheimer's. If they can go to market first with a treatment for this debilitating disease, the company's entire outlook could change. Early data shows that semaglutide users may have a reduced risk of developing dementia and Alzheimer's. Now, Novo Nordisk is running two large Phase three trials, named Evoke and Evoke plus, to test whether semaglutide can actually treat Alzheimer's. Results are expected by the end of 2020.
- [39:10]
A
As Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly look ahead to 2026, they're both betting their oral GLP1 medications will lure in new users drawn to the convenience of a pill. Eli Lilly expects FDA approval of its pill by the end of this year. It's clear that there's still untapped potential with semaglutide, but whether Novo Nordisk will be able to harness it remains an open question. While Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly await approvals for their next wave of GLP1 drugs, critics are raising red flags, questioning the long term safety of these drugs and who actually benefits from them. Data shows that long term weight loss isn't guaranteed through the use of GLP1s. One study showed that people who stopped using GLP1s eventually regained about two thirds of the weight lost, and obesity experts told the Associated Press that as many as 1 in 5 people don't respond to GLP1 drugs at all. As they watch their peers shed weight quickly, these patients are disappointed by a lack of results. This lack of efficacy could complicate the financial picture for the pharmaceutical giants who envision an ever expanding market for their products. High discontinuation rates among users are also a concern. Cardiovascular epidemiologist Sadia Khan points out that repeated weight cycling, losing and regaining weight can cause dangerous swings in blood pressure, heart rate, nervous system activity and blood sugar levels. These fluctuations put people at a higher risk for cardiovascular events like heart attacks and strokes. For many people, Dr. Kahn says, it might actually be healthier to just maintain their current weight than to keep riding the GLP1 roller coaster. Still, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are betting big and envisioning a future where the population of GLP1 users continues its steady rise. One estimate predicts that by 2030, as many as 30 million people worldwide could be taking GLP1 drugs. And if new formulations of semaglutide and other synthetic hormones prove they can treat other diseases, from diabetes to dementia, we might be looking at the beginning of a whole new pharmaceutical war. Whether the next breakthrough comes from Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, or a yet unknown challenger, the battle for the body definitely isn't over. From wondering this is Episode two of Ozempic wars for Business Wars. A quick note about recreations you've been hearing in most cases we can't know exactly what was said. Those scenes are dramatizations, but they are based on historical research and if you'd like to read more, we recommend Reporting from Reuters and Fortune Magazine. I'm your host David Brown. Aaron Land wrote this story. Sound design by Kyle Randall. Fact checking by Gabrielle Jolais. Our producer is Tristan Donovan of Yellow Hand. Our managing producer is Desi Blalock. Our senior producers are Jenny Bloom and Emily Frost. Karen Lowe is our producer emeritus. Our executive producers are Jenny Lauer, Beckman and Marshall Louie for wondering.
- [42:49]
I
Hey basketball fans, Steve Nash here. Ready to elevate your basketball IQ? I'm teaming up with LeBron James to bring you the latest season of Mind the Game and we're about to take you deeper into basketball than you've ever gone before. We're breaking down the real game, the X's and O's that actually matter. In every episode, we'll share elite level strategy and dive into career defining moments and explain the why behind plays that change the game. A team or a championship. LeBron and I have lived this game at the highest level for decades. We've been in those pressure moments and made those game changing decisions and learned from the greatest basketball minds in history. Now we're pulling back the curtain and sharing that knowledge with you. Time to go beyond the highlights and get into the real heart of basketball. Watch Mind the game now on YouTube prime video or listen wherever you get your podcasts.