A (16:47)
It's October 2, 2024. The FDA puts out a statement removing tirzepatide, the key ingredient in Eli Lilly zeppbound, from official shortage list. That means compounding pharmacies can no longer make their own versions of the drug. This is bad news for Jorgensen, because while Eli Lilly has amped up its production, Novo Nordisk is still struggling with shortages of its main GLP1 hormone, semaglutide. Novo Nordisk has been spending billions of dollars trying to keep up with demand. Earlier in the year they purchased three factories for $11 billion, and in June they announced plans for a new manufacturing facility outside Raleigh, North Carolina. But it won't be up and running until sometime between 2027 and 2029. Meanwhile, demand still far exceeds their supply, which means Novo Nordisk can't get off the FDA's shortage list. So Novo Nordisk decides to try a different tactic to narrow the playing field, asking the FDA to ban compounding pharmacies from making copycat versions of semaglutide. Novo Nordisk argues that semaglutide is too complex a drug to be replicated safely, and points to the dozen lawsuits they've already filed. The company says some of these compounded drugs are laced with impurities and could be unsafe for patients. You see what Novo Nordisk is doing here. When a market gets flooded with knockoffs, the temptation is to fight them in court. But you gotta consider this too. Lawsuits can sometimes be another form of advertising. After all, they keep your rival's name in circulation. A smarter play might be to compete on clarity, make your offers so trustworthy and simple that the copies look risky by comparison. You can't litigate your way into customer loyalty, but you can earn it by removing doubt faster than your lawyers can file motions. To others, like Scott Brunner, the head of a compounding pharmacy trade group, Novo Nordisk's move looks like one made out of, quote, desperation. While Novo Nordisk waits for the FDA to make a decision, prescriptions for off brand drugs continue to grow. Meanwhile, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly keep working towards building their next generation of weight loss drugs. This Next wave marks a shift. Their new drugs combine multiple synthetic hunger hormones in an effort to push weight loss results even higher. In December 2024, Novo Nordisk publishes the results of late stage trials for Cagrosema, a new drug that combines semaglutide with cagrolentide, which mimics another hunger hormone. Novo Nordisk wants to dominate the anti obesity market and they've been working on a successor to Wegovy, ideally one that will perform better than their rival's drug Zepbound. The results are promising, but they don't quite live up to the hope or the hype. Patients on Cagrosema only lost about 23% of their body weight, instead of the 25% investors had expected. Novo Nordisk shares plunged 22% following this news. One portfolio manager calls this a worst case scenario for the company, saying that Kagra Sema is only as good as Zapbound, but more complex to manufacture. That crash shows the brutal truth of R and D. Investors aren't buying science, they're buying momentum. Even pretty good results can tank a stock if expectations are over inflated. Every founder faces this problem. You promise them the moon and you're punished for reaching the stratosphere. Happens all the time. The fix? Try to manage expectations like a product launch under promise, over deliver and save the fireworks for the moment you actually get clear orbit. Still, a 23% body weight loss is well above Wegovy's current average of around 15%. And the race to make even better, more effective versions of these drugs continues. Eli Lilly is already putting its new version through trials. Their new drug, retatrutide, targets three hunger hormone receptors. It's being nicknamed Triple G. And earlier trial results from 2023 showed a 24% reduction in body weight over the course of nearly a year. Novo Nordisk is in a tough spot while Eli Lilly chases the next big breakthrough. Compounding pharmacies are still eating away at the Danish multinationals market share. And some of those smaller challengers are willing to spend big to capture the public's attention. For Jurgensen, it's starting to look like a no win situation. In February 2025, the startup Hems & Hers Health buys a minute long super bowl ad to promote their compounded version of Semaglutide, pitching it as the affordable answer to America's obesity epidemic. Something's broken and it's not our bodies, it's the system. There are medications that work, but they're priced for profits, not the patience. Jurgensen sees the commercial and he knows that an estimated 127 million other people did too. Most will assume there's no real difference between Wegovy and this compounded version. It's the same problem he's been fighting for months. Only now it's playing out in front of the largest TV audience in the US with price tags as low as $199 for a one month supply of injections and $79 for a pill. Later that month, Novo Nordisk finally gets some good news. The FDA announces that the semaglutide shortage is officially over. Novo Nordisk is finally able to keep up with demand. This means the compounding pharmacies, who have been mimicking Wegovy for more than a year now have 60 to 90 days to shut down. At least that's what they've been ordered to do. But Jurgensen knows enforcement won't be easy. And it'll be even harder to convince patients to give up the cheaper versions they've already come to trust. In March 2025, Novo Nordisk launches Novocare Pharmacy, a direct to consumer method of selling Wegovy. They copied Eli Lilly's model and are able to bring the price of Wegovy down to just $499 a month. Problem is, nobody's paying much attention. The spotlight is still on startup brands selling compounded versions of GLP1s because they're cheaper and frankly, better advertised. Still, Novo Nordisk gets a small win that month. The company's full membership in abpi, Britain's pharmaceutical trade association, is reinstated after a previous ethics violation. But in April, Eli Lilly pulls ahead again when they publish promising results for an oral version of Zepbound, an easier and more painless way to take GLP1 medication. When they make this announcement, their stock jumps about 14% while Novo Nordisk stock sinks by more than 7%. On April 29, Novo Nordisk tries to change the narrative. The company announces a new partnership with Hims and Hers Health. That's the startup that advertised on the Super Bowl. Hims and hers has basically become the most well known provider of GLP1 medications, thanks to low prices and aggressive marketing. Jurgensen and the Novo Nordisk leadership team decided that if they can't steal the spotlight, they may as well share it. Novo Nordisk will supply Wegovy through Hims and hers the same way as it sells through NovoCare for just $599 a month. It's a bold move and one that captures some media attention. Now that's an unexpected pivot. Don't you Think teaming up with a disruptor who's been eating your lunch? You know, in business, co opting a rival's megaphone can go two ways. It can be brilliant or disastrous. If the partner defines the brand louder than you do, well, congratulations. You just rented out your credibility. Partnerships really only work when both sides are guarding the message with the same kind of care. Otherwise, the leading brand is lending trust to someone else's marketing department. Jorgensen watches their stock rise from $60 a share to $64 by closing. It's not quite the boost that Eli Lilly enjoyed a few weeks ago, but he'll take it. It's May 16, 2025, and Lars Furagard Jurgensen is logging onto a Microsoft Steam call with Novo Nordisk chairman Helga Lund. He adjusts his notes and prepares for a routine catch up. But right away the tone of the conversation feels off. Lund doesn't lead with small talk. Instead, he gets right to the point. Lars, we need to discuss the future leadership of Novo Nordisk. Jurgensen frowns. Future leadership? He thought this call was about strategy, projects, maybe a future product launch, Lund continues. The board has decided it's time for a new CEO. The words hit like a punch. Jorgensen barely has time to process what's happening. After all he's built, including 26 billion dollar mega hits like Ozempic and Wegovy, he's being shown the door. Jurgensen knows the company's been struggling lately. Share price has dropped 53% over the past year, compounding pharmacies have been undercutting their prices with copycats, and they've had setbacks in their next generation trials while Eli Lilly has been racing ahead. But the decision to remove him as CEO takes him completely by surprise. The call ends and Jurgensen tries to steady himself. He'd expected a discussion, maybe even criticism, but not this. Later, he learns that the board leaked the news to the media before even telling him. The message is clear. The company needs a new direction and a leader who's up for the challenge of matching Eli Lilly's pace. But this isn't the only partnership that Novo Nordisk is ending. In June 2025, Novo Nordisk cuts ties with hims and hers, and the breakup is not pretty. The company says the telehealth platform is continuing to sell compounded versions of Wegovy, even though the FDA has ordered compounding pharmacies to stop this practice. They also accuse Hims and hers of using deceptive marketing tactics and putting patient safety at risk. Dave Moore, Novo Nordisk's executive vice president of U.S. operations, tells CNBC, Our expectation was that Hims and hers business focus would transfer toward real, safe, approved medications. When we didn't see that we had to make a choice on behalf of patients. Hims and hers fires back. Their CEO Andrew Dudham says that Novo Nordisk is, quote, misleading the public and claims the drug maker had pressured them to steer patients toward Wegovy even when it wasn't their best clinical option. He adds that his company refuses to be strong armed and will continue offering patients a range of treatments, including Wegovy. As the public dispute plays out, Novo Nordisk's stock price continues to tumble. On his final call with the media as CEO in early August, Jurgensen reveals that the amount of compounded semaglutide circulating in the US Is roughly equal to Novo Nordisk's own share of the drug, underscoring just how steep the battle against copycats will be for their new CEO. Around the same time, Novo Nordisk appoints Maziar Mike Dustar as their new CEO. He's a longtime employee who started in the mail room more than 30 years ago. Dewstar says he's known for his directness, and in his get to Know Me video he gets right to the point. But let's be honest about where we are. The competitive landscape has completely changed. Two years ago we were alone. Now everyone wants to play in obesity and diabetes. This means we need to move faster, focus harder on what we do best. Dewstar promises bold moves, but will they be enough to turn things around? Oh hey.