Transcript
A (0:09)
It's late 2020 in London, England. Influencer Ojosa Ovienryoba lets out a squeal as she hits send on an email. She just sent a batch of videos to a brand's marketing director for approval. Once they sign off, she'll post them to her Instagram stories and officially become a brand partner for one of the biggest companies she's ever worked with. Ovnrioba started posting on YouTube back in 2010, mostly giving beauty and lifestyle tips. At first the posts were a fun creative outlet while she studied law at school. But now it's her full time job and this latest deal is a major financial milestone. Ovnryova can't sit still, so she picks up her phone and calls a friend.
B (0:55)
Hey, how's it going? Oh my gosh. You won't believe who I'm partnering with. This is my biggest deal yet. Oh yeah? Who is it with? Klarna. I'm doing Instagram stories about how I use it to buy my favorite beauty products. Hello? Are you there? Yeah, I'm still here. Did you hear me? I just signed a deal with Klarna. Isn't that cool? How much do you know about Klarna? Ah, I mean, I've used it here and there. It seems like a good service. It lets you divide payments up over time. Hmm. Well, yeah, for some people it's great. But I've heard about a lot of people getting into real financial trouble. Not just with Klarna, but with other pay later services too. Oh, I had no idea. Some people think the apps make it too easy to buy more than you can afford. I just read an article about people who are deep in debt because of these services. Can you send me that article? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Sending it. No. I feel terrible. I don't want to give bad financial advice. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to rain in your parade. I am so proud of you. This deal didn't come out of nowhere. Klarna wants to work with you because you've worked so hard to build your audience. Honestly, I'm glad you told me. It's too late for me to get out of this deal, but I will never work with them again.
A (2:26)
Ovnryoba hangs up the phone, deflated. Klarna has always had a positive reputation with her audience, millennials and Gen Z. But is that starting to change? She feels terrible knowing she's about to promote a product that she now has serious doubts about. There are strict rules governing how credit cards are allowed to operate, so why don't those same rules apply to buy now, pay later? Emirates Premium Economy Class elevates the flying experience with an entirely new level of comfort and sophistication. Settle into wider cream leather seats with generous legroom and enjoy priority boarding. Savor premium dining with Royal Dalton China paired with Chandon sparkling wine and exclusive business class vintages. The 13.3 inch HD entertainment system offers thousands of options for your journey. This isn't just Premium Economy, it's Emirates Premium Economy. Exceptional service meets unmatched comfort at a smarter price point. To find out more about Emirates premium economy, visit emirates.com us that's emirates.com us. From wondering I'm David Brown and this is Business Wars. In 2003, a 21 year old entrepreneur named Sebastian Chemiatkovsky had an idea. E commerce was exploding, but consumer trust was still fragile. So he started Klarna, a company that would pay for purchases up front, then collect payment from consumers. Within 30 days, consumers could receive an item, inspect it, and decide if they wanted to keep it before paying for it. The model worked. Klarna was immediately profitable in its home base of Sweden. And soon Shemiatkovsky's ambitions grew. He didn't just want to make online shopping easier, he wanted to disrupt the entire banking system. In 2019, Klarna arrived in the United States. Then came 2020. The pandemic shut down brick and mortar stores and online shopping took off. Klarna's revenue increased 40% that year, passing $1 billion. But by 2021, clouds were forming. A shifting economic outlook and increased governmental scrutiny would soon put Klarna's business model to the test. This is episode two, maxing out. It's March 2021, and as the United States passes the one year mark of the pandemic, Klarna is booming. The company raises a billion dollars from new investors, including heavyweights like Silver Lake Partners and BlackRock. By June, Klarna's valuation hits over $45 billion, tripling its worth in just nine months. It's now the second most valuable fintech company in the world. Only payment processing company Stripe is worth more. There are rumors that Klarna will soon hold an ipo, joining its competitors afterpay and affirm as a publicly held company. But there's trouble on the horizon. In February 2022, Russia invades Ukraine, causing energy and food prices to spike, especially in Europe, Klarna's home turf. In the United States, inflation jumps to 9%, raising the prices of food and other consumer goods. This is bad news For Klarna, consumers mostly use buy now pay later to pay for discretionary purchases like concert tickets, designer jackets, new TVs. In a downturn, these are the first things people stop buying. But that's not the only problem. During the pandemic, governments slashed interest rates to historically low levels to encourage people to spend money. This was a boon to Klarna and other buy now, pay later companies. Klarna relies on borrowed money from banks to front consumer purchases. And low interest rates made it possible for them to borrow lots of money and still turn a profit. But now countries around the world are raising interest rates to combat inflation, which means Klarna's costs are going up. Klarna took on losses to expand into the United States, and its path to becoming profitable again is getting harder and harder. With prices going up and consumers feeling squeezed from all sides, they're more likely to default on their loans. Losses that Klarna has to absorb. You know, this is what cheap money does to business judgment. We've seen this pattern over and over. Low interest, easy to obtain mortgages, anyone? When borrowing is easy, losses can feel temporary. Expansion gets framed as strategy instead of risk. But at some point, the math stops being so forgiving, and suddenly every shortcut shows up on the balance sheet. For small businesses, the lesson is brutal, but important. If your model only works when conditions are perfect, well, it doesn't really work, does it? Not over time, and not in the real world. Klarna's competition is also intensifying. In 2021, the point of sale company Square announces IT will acquire Afterpay by 2022. The deal is complete thanks to the merger. Square adds a buy now, pay later option to the 4 million merchants who use its point of sale services. Meanwhile, a firm started by PayPal co founder Max Lepchen is gaining on Klarna. In the United States, even credit card companies are jumping in. Citi, Chase and American Express roll out their own pay over time features, often with lower interest rates than their card standard rates. It's a perfect storm of bad news for klarna. In spring 2022, Klarna CEO Sebastian Chemiatkovsky sends a pre recorded video to all Klarna staff. He tells them that 10% of the workforce, roughly 650 people, will be laid off. He encourages them to work from home and says they'll receive a calendar invite to find out if they still have a job. Publicly. Shmyatkovsky spends the downsizing as a necessary move to shore up Klarna's business model. In an increasingly tough economy. But by summer 2022, Klarna's valuation collapses, shrinking from $45 billion to just 6.5 billion, an 85% drop in value. Once again, Semyodkovsky feels like Klarna is teetering on a precipice. He's felt this way before, when he tried to pivot the company to be a broader payment platform and during the rocky US expansion. If Klarna is going to survive this downturn, he needs something new. Luckily, inspiration strikes. It's November 2022 at Klarna's offices in Stockholm, Sweden. Chemiatkowski walks down the hallway and knocks on the door of one of his top executives. He wants to go over the latest revenue report. Come in. Chemyotkovsky enters and sees the executive grinning at the computer screen. Why are you grinning? I just asked Chat GPT to explain wormholes. Design a workout regimen for me and put together an itinerary for my trip to London next month. Looks like it's nailed all of it. Shemytkowski takes a seat. Is that good? Oh, yeah, it's pretty amazing. Honestly, I think we all might be out of jobs in a few years. Well, we've known AI was coming, it's just a matter of when. Now it looks like it's arrived. I guess we either panic or we make it work for us. What do you mean? Well, I'm sure it could bring more efficiency to how we operate, don't you think? And we can make AI work for our users too, by integrating it into our customer service solutions. Shemiatkovsky stands up, feeling excited about the opportunity at hand. You know, the more I think about it, I think we should do it. Working with OpenAI could keep us ahead of the competition. If you can't beat him, join them, right? Exactly. That's an interesting idea, but it would mean collaborating with another company. Yeah, there's that, but I think it's worth trying. Chmiatkovsky heads back to his office, excited about the possibility of making a deal and seeing what AI can do for Klarna. The first time in a while, he feels like he's ahead of the moment rather than scrambling to keep up. In fall 2022, Klarna signs a deal with OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. Klarna will allow OpenAI to test out a variety of AI products on Klarna's public facing software as well as its backend. By the summer of 2023, Klarna is experimenting with four 14 different AI initiatives, including customer Service chatbots and real time price comparison tools for consumers. But even as Klarna innovates, some users are becoming disillusioned with the concept of buy now, pay later. They're realizing that there's an inherent contradiction in the service. These companies market themselves as being good for consumers by helping them avoid credit cards and pay for products they might not otherwise be able to afford. But Buy Now Pay Later's focus is actually on the merchants. These apps earn money by taking a percentage of every transaction. So the more consumers spend, the more companies like Klarna make. Yeah, this is the quiet truth. Most companies don't advertise. Klarna talks to consumers, but that it answers to sellers. And that difference shapes everything from how you get your pitches to where they pop up in the buying process, or even the incentives to spend more. Truth is, plenty of businesses do this. Social media platforms, delivery apps, even what can seem to be free services. And when someone else is footing the bill, well, your priorities can tend to drift, you know what I mean? And that works until your end users, the consumers, get wise to what's happening. It's in Klarna's interest to encourage consumers to spend more and more. And some users have had enough. It's winter 2023 in New York City. Fashion editor Alicia Berman sits at her kitchen table, staring off into space. A half finished martini is in her hand. Her laptop is open, and a notepad filled with calculation sits beside it. Earlier this afternoon, Berman went into a department store and bought a designer coat on sale. She's wanted a coat like this for a long time and was excited to score the deal. But when she went to pay for it, she discovered she had maxed out all of her buy now, pay later apps. Berman knew she used them a lot, but she was shocked to learn that she had hit the limit on all of them. Ever since she got back to the apartment, she's been trying to figure out just how much money she owes. When she finally finishes her calculations, the answer is horrifying. And now her husband has just returned home. She knows she has to tell him about the financial hole she's gotten herself into, but she's terrified about how he'll react. The apartment door opens and her husband calls out, hey, honey. Berman is so nervous, she feels like she can't catch her breath. She tries to answer her husband, but she just can't manage to find the words. Alicia. Her husband walks into the kitchen, does a double take when he sees her. Hey. Hey. What's wrong? You look like You've just seen a ghost.
