Bussin' With The Boys

Episode: Josh Pate Picks College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Games w/ Will Compton And Taylor Lewan

Date: December 30, 2025

Overview

In this highly anticipated College Football Playoff (CFP) quarterfinals episode, hosts Will Compton and Taylor Lewan bring on college football analyst Josh Pate to break down the playoff matchups: Oregon vs. Texas Tech, Alabama vs. Indiana, Ole Miss vs. Georgia, and Miami vs. Ohio State. The discussion is a lively mix of deep football analysis, insider perspectives on coaching rumors, postseason player legacies, betting picks, and plenty of banter, as the boys compare notes on records, prop bets, and their affection for certain teams and coaches.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Breakdown

Separation in the Standings

• The episode starts with the hosts reviewing their pick records, noting how close they all are to finishing above .500 for the season.
• Josh Pate notes his "Ramen Noodle Express" betting picks are above .500:
  "77 and 70, which is not like, crush it, quit your second job-style, winning percentage. But it's a winning percentage." (05:04, Pate)

On Holiday Gifts & Show Banter (Light Moment)

• The boys joke about what Josh Pate wants for Christmas, landing on cozy clothing and friendship over material gifts:
  "No man is a failure who has friends. I have friends. I have everything I need for Christmas." (06:43, Pate)

2. Michigan Coaching & Rumors (07:21–17:24)

The Kyle Whittingham Hire

• Extensive debate about Michigan's coaching change, with optimism around Kyle Whittingham’s “solid football culture.”
  "He's just a football guy. Occasional motorcycle ride during the lunch break, hit a steak at 4pm at his desk, back to football." (08:13, Pate)

• Speculation on Whittingham’s tenure leads to discussion about program stability vs. long-term splash hires.

Coaching Carousel Insider Story—Production Meeting

• The boys reveal a “behind-the-scenes” story where a Michigan head coach change was tipped in a production meeting, impressing even ESPN’s Mike Greenberg: "If I could have had like surveillance video of that production meeting...we could sell that." (14:09, Pate)

On Rumors and Sourcing

• Josh dismisses the Kalen DeBoer-to-Bama leaving rumors, emphasizing journalistic standards: "I talked to Kalen today. He's never lied to me in his life. So that's my source." (17:03, Pate)

3. CFP Quarterfinal Game Breakdowns

A. Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Indiana

[24:42–43:03, Main analysis]

• Line & Model: Indiana favored by 7.5; Josh’s model has Indiana -3.5

• Key angles:

  • Alabama’s health, Ty Simpson’s performance, Indiana’s zone-pressure defense.
  • Indiana’s star DL Steven Daly is out, creating concern for their defense.

• Bold Prediction:
  "Alabama's going to win this game outright, so I'll take the points, especially if you're giving me seven and a half." (33:53, Pate)

• Host Reactions:

  • Taylor and Will each play up the tension with indecision, but ultimately most lean Bama covering, though Indiana might win.
  • Ty Simpson’s “wolf mode” persona and callouts referenced.

Notable Quote:
"If Bama's going to win, it's going to be a Ty Simpson legacy game." (29:59, Will)

B. Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Georgia

[43:09–51:20, Main analysis]

• Line: Georgia favored by 6.5

• Key angles:

  • Previous high-scoring meeting; Georgia’s defense improvement.
  • Trinidad Chambliss regarded as the most dangerous QB in the playoff.
  • Trust in Kirby Smart’s preparation and high-leverage experience.
  • Potential emotional impact revisiting New Orleans after last year’s Sugar Bowl and personal events for Kirby Smart’s family.

• Predictions:

  • Josh Pate prefers the over 55.5 points but would also lay the points with Georgia.
  • Taylor and Will also lean Georgia; Taylor notes “this spot is part of the process” for the Bulldogs.

Notable Quote:
"I always just blindly trust Kirby in these spots." (45:46, Pate)

C. Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech

[55:04–68:08, Main analysis]

• Line: Oregon favored by 2.5

• Narratives:

  • Portal spending "arms race" (both teams accused of buying their teams).
  • Oregon’s season defined by their prior playoff loss to Ohio State—mental edge.
  • Texas Tech’s “Joey McGuire Heel Turn” (jokingly presented as a villain via a fake letter).

• Analysis:

  • Oregon’s run offense vs. Texas Tech’s top-ranked run defense.
  • Pate's strongest bet: Oregon over 144.5 rushing yards (biggest wager of his playoffs).
  • All three ultimately back Oregon—big.

Notable Quotes:

• "This is where their season is supposed to start. ...Dan Lanning waking up in a cold sweat over and over at least once a week throughout this entire year." (58:06, Will)
• "If they can do that, they have full balance and they'll be able to operate offensively and they'll put Texas Tech in the spot no one else has." (65:02, Pate)

D. Cotton Bowl: Miami vs. Ohio State (True Classic game of the week)

[72:38–87:56, Main analysis]

• Line: Ohio State favored by 9.5
• Key angles:
  • Miami’s D-line/secondary vs. Ohio State’s young but talented offense.
  • Julian Sayin throwing to “aliens” (Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate).
  • Ryan Day calling plays for OSU; Brian Hartline’s situation.
  • Will and Taylor both pick Ohio State to win big, Pate expects a closer game, pointing to Miami’s edge in the trenches but backs Ohio State outright.

Notable Quotes:

• "There's no team that physically looks like Miami. Doesn't mean they'll win the game though. They're a nine and a half point dog for a reason." (75:27, Pate)
• "I think Ohio State is going to blow them up." (79:25, Will)

4. Broader College Football Discussion

Conference Supremacy & Out-of-Conference Matchups

• Pate notes the potential for the Big Ten to be overrated if their teams underperform in the playoffs due to lack of cross-conference play: "In the SEC and the ACC, we've got a ton of examples of out-of-conference play... Big Ten and Big 12, there's not a lot of that." (88:28, Pate)

Betting Props & Philosophies

• Several props and model lines are thrown in:
  • Josh is bullish on Oregon’s over in rushing yards.
  • The team debates Miami's team total over/under (15.5).
  • Will jokes about moving Oregon to -9.5 for a big alternate line bet.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Quote | Speaker | Timestamp | |-------|---------|-----------| | "Alabama's going to win this game outright, so I'll take the points..." | Josh Pate | 33:53 | | "If Bama's going to win, it's going to be a Ty Simpson legacy game." | Will Compton | 29:59 | | "I always just blindly trust Kirby in these spots." | Josh Pate | 45:46 | | "This is where their season is supposed to start. ...Dan Lanning waking up in a cold sweat over and over..." | Will Compton | 58:06 | | "There's no team that physically looks like Miami. Doesn't mean they'll win the game though." | Josh Pate | 75:27 | | "I think Ohio State is going to blow them up." | Will Compton | 79:25 |

Important Timestamps

• 07:21–17:24: Michigan coaching search & inside production meeting story
• 24:42: Start of Alabama vs. Indiana breakdown (Rose Bowl)
• 43:09: Sugar Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Georgia
• 55:04: Orange Bowl: Oregon vs. Texas Tech
• 72:38: Cotton Bowl: Miami vs. Ohio State

Tone & Style

The conversation is smart, irreverent, and loaded with both inside jokes and substantive football insights. They openly tease each other's picks and biases, cite direct text exchanges with coaches, and don't hesitate to call each other out on previous predictions.

Summary (For the Uninitiated)

If you missed the episode, you get a format-defining, football-rich, and personality-driven breakdown of the 2025 College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The hosts and guest deeply dissect each matchup—analyzing team health, coaching edges, player legacies, and betting lines—while providing plenty of locker-room banter, stories from inside the football world, and strong opinions on where to put your (theoretical) money.

Key takeaways: Josh Pate is bullish on Alabama and Oregon, leans Georgia, and thinks Ohio State-Miami will be closer than the spread suggests. Will and Taylor lean more conservative—trusting Kirby, believing in Ohio State’s talent, and wary of Alabama’s ability to finish—but all agree: the quarterfinals bring separation season.