Podcast Summary:

Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
Episode: After Venezuela, is Iran Next? - with Karim Sadjapour
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Karim Sadjapour, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Overview

This episode examines the dramatic capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and explores how this event is reverberating in Iran, where a new wave of protests is gripping the nation. Dan Senor and expert Karim Sadjapour delve into what these developments mean for Iran’s political future, the psychological interplay between regimes and protestors, and the global struggle between autocracy and the West.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shock of Maduro's Capture and Its Influence (00:08, 28:13)

• Backdrop: U.S. forces have captured Nicolás Maduro, a close ally of Iran, prompting worldwide debate. President Trump announced the U.S. would temporarily govern Venezuela.
• Global Message: The action sends a signal to dictators worldwide that no regime is untouchable, and this is impacting perceptions in Tehran.
  • “When they see the abrupt collapse or the rendition of a dictator, it makes them realize that, you know, our dictator is not all powerful either.” (Karim Sadjapour, 00:08/28:13)
• Tehran’s Anxiety: Attention in Iran has sharpened as people question, “Could that be the case with Ayatollah Khamenei?”

2. Current State of Protests in Iran (05:20, 05:30)

• Scale and Significance: Protests are nation-wide but not (yet) existentially threatening to the regime.
  • “Every single one of those people that goes to the streets is really risking their lives.” (Karim Sadjapour, 05:30)
• Comparisons: The numbers are smaller than the 2022 “Women Life Freedom” protests.
• Revolutions’ Formula: The situation hinges on three forces:
  • The health and morale of the supreme leader (Khamenei).
  • Cohesion of security forces (Revolutionary Guards, Basij).
  • The resolve/psychology of protesters—will repression silence or embolden them?
• “The interplay between these three forces...are going to be determinative.” (Karim Sadjapour, 07:16)

3. Protest Dynamics: Leadership, Grievances, and Diversity (07:41, 11:50, 15:33)

• Lack of Central Leadership: Effective repression has suppressed both organizational and inspirational leadership. Reza Pahlavi is mentioned as a figure but is remote and unable to organize effectively.
  • “They’re very effective at decapitating individuals who are capable of that kind of leadership role, whether organizational or inspirational.” (Karim Sadjapour, 08:47)
• Religious Element: Unlike previous revolutions, current movements are less dependent on religious leaders—reflecting a post-Islamist society.
• Triggering Factors: Current protests started over inflation/currency collapse but quickly spiraled into generalized discontent with social, political, and religious repression.
  • “It’s actually even more insulting when a regime like that is repressing you and stealing from you than just your run of the mill dictatorship.” (Karim Sadjapour, 12:09)
• Protest Diversity: Traders, merchants (traditionally regime-tolerant), students, and youth are involved, but middle class participation remains low so far.

4. Iran’s Revolutionary Durability vs. “Zombie Regime” Dynamics (11:18, 12:09, 16:59)

• Dictatorial Longevity: Revolutionary regimes (like Iran's) tend to last longer due to ideological cohesion and ruthless organization.
  • “A regime which is a theocratic regime...it’s like a zombie regime in that it’s ideologically dead, it’s financially dying, but it’s still capable of killing to survive.” (Karim Sadjapour, 12:09)
• Wasted Resources: The regime’s misallocation of resources (nuclear program, failed overseas proxies) breeds popular anger.

5. Foreign Involvement—Myths and Reality (17:41)

• Little Evidence: No credible evidence foreign intelligence agencies are directly involved in fueling Iranian protests.
  • “The Iranians have never needed outside encouragement to dislike their rulers.” (Karim Sadjapour, 17:59)
• External Limitations: While America and Israel are interested in regime change, the outcome is firmly in Iranian hands.

6. Regime Vulnerability: The Impact of Defeat and Isolation (18:39, 19:45, 21:47)

• Khamenei’s Weakness: Recent Israeli/US military actions exposed Iran’s military vulnerabilities, intensifying Khamenei’s paranoia and perceived weakness.
  • “His leadership has also proven to be totally bankrupt. At age 86, he is fighting a very high-tech, sophisticated three-part war against America, Israel and his own society.” (Karim Sadjapour, 19:45)
• Internal Divisions: Iran’s President and Foreign Minister make conciliatory statements, but Khamenei’s hardline stance is what shapes policy.
  • “When you’re under pressure, never compromise, never cede to the demands of your protesters because...that’s actually just going to embolden them.” (Karim Sadjapour, 22:28)

7. The Iran-Venezuela Axis (25:19, 26:59)

• Historical Alliance: Iran and Venezuela formed a bond based on shared anti-Americanism, not economic or cultural alignment.
  • “What binded them was this common antipathy towards America.” (Karim Sadjapour, 25:19)
• Practical Limits: The alliance produced little popular exchange, but did provide Iran with a forward outpost and a channel for cash and arms.
• Cultural Disconnect: Iranian attempts for cultural influence in Latin America flopped due to their repressive nature (27:07).

8. Psychological and Strategic Fallout from Maduro’s Downfall (28:13, 29:51)

• Protesters Inspired: Maduro’s seizure broadens protesters’ sense of possibility—“no dictator lasts forever.”
• Regime’s Fear: Tehran’s elite is haunted by analogies to their fallen allies but remains committed to “kill or be killed” survival.
• No Immediate Domino: Despite the psychological effect, Iran’s geographic and social differences suggest Venezuela is not a direct precursor.

9. What Comes Next? Scenarios for Iran’s Future (31:07, 34:42)

• Most Likely Short-Term: Regime may snuff out these protests, as before—“kill or be killed” mentality and state violence maintaining control for now.
• Security Forces' Calculus: The Revolutionary Guards might eventually decide to replace Khamenei to maintain their power and interests.
  • “Should we continue to risk everything...or should we make a move to take power for ourselves now?” (Karim Sadjapour, 31:07)
• Inevitable but Not Imminent Change: Collapse of the regime appears more likely but not immediate.
  • “I actually do think it appears inevitable, but not imminent. I don’t think it’s any longer inconceivable for people.” (Karim Sadjapour, 35:21)
• Post-Islamist Future: Prediction that the next leader won’t be a cleric—nationalism and populism will outstrip revolutionary/religious ideology.

10. Historical Parallels and the October 7th Turning Point (34:42, 36:27)

• Dictatorships Look Unshakable—Until They Don’t: Regime collapse can go from inconceivable to inevitable almost overnight.
  • “While dictatorships rule, the collapse appears inconceivable. And after they’ve fallen, their collapse appeared inevitable.” (Karim Sadjapour quoting Trotsky, 35:21)
• Unexpected Sequence: The current regime’s cascade of weakness began when Iran backed Hamas’s October 7th attack on Israel—a moment thought to be their high point.
  • “Iran’s power peaked on October 6, 2023. And from then on, all of the major investments...have been collapsing before their eyes.” (Karim Sadjapour, 36:27)

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On dictatorship and psychological collapse:
  • “No dictator lasts forever.” (K. Sadjapour, 00:08/28:13)
• Key to regime stability:
  • “The interplay between these three forces...are going to be determinative.” (K. Sadjapour, 07:16)
• Reality of repression:
  • “They’re very effective at decapitating individuals who are capable of that kind of leadership role.” (K. Sadjapour, 08:47)
• Iran’s “zombie” regime:
  • “It’s like a zombie regime in that it’s ideologically dead, it’s financially dying, but it’s still capable of killing to survive.” (K. Sadjapour, 12:09)
• Change is inevitable but not imminent:
  • “I actually do think it appears inevitable, but not imminent.” (K. Sadjapour, 35:21)
• Turning point on October 7:
  • “Iran’s power peaked on October 6, 2023. And from then on, all of the major investments...have been collapsing before their eyes.” (K. Sadjapour, 36:27)

Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:08 | Impact of Maduro’s capture on other dictatorships | | 05:30 | Current ground reality of protests in Iran | | 08:47 | Why Iranian protests lack leadership | | 11:50 | Protest triggers and regime grievances | | 15:33 | Diversity and social mix of protestors | | 17:59 | Discussion of foreign intelligence involvement | | 19:45 | Regime psychological vulnerability after military setbacks | | 22:28 | Hardline internal dynamics: Khamenei’s anti-compromise lesson | | 25:19 | Iran-Venezuela relationship explained | | 28:13 | Iranian protest movement’s reaction to events in Caracas | | 31:07 | Possible future scenarios for Iran | | 34:42 | Comparisons to other dictatorships’ sudden collapse | | 36:27 | October 7th event as turning point for Iran |

Tone and Style

The conversation is analytical, world-weary, and grounded in first-hand knowledge and historical context. Sadjapour’s language is precise but laced with analogies that keep the complex dynamics relatable, often referencing books, key historical moments, and inside stories from the region.

For listeners and readers alike, this episode provides a sobering but insightful window into the potentially transformative consequences the fall of Venezuela’s dictatorship may have for Iran and why regime change, while not yet inevitable imminently, is beginning to look possible in a country hungry for normalcy, dignity, and prosperity.