Amit on what victory in Iran might look like…(INSIDE Call me Back sneak peek)

Summary

Call Me Back – Inside Edition Sneak Peek: “Amit on What Victory in Iran Might Look Like…”

Host: Dan Senor

Guest: Amit Segal (Ark Media)

Date: March 7, 2026

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Episode Overview

This special “Inside” edition of Call Me Back features candid, off-the-record-style discussion between Dan Senor and Israeli journalist Amit Segal. The conversation addresses listener-submitted questions about Israel’s strategic posture following the Gaza War, the prospect of Iranian regime collapse, Netanyahu’s political calculus, and the shifting roles of regional actors like Qatar amidst ongoing conflict with Iran.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Definitions and Metrics of “Victory” Over Iran

• Listener’s Question: Jake from New Jersey asks whether “total victory” is an unrealistic goal given that Iran retains military-grade uranium, the regime is still intact, Hezbollah and Hamas still function, etc. (01:25)
• Amit’s View: The analogy to WWII; likens Israel’s situation to “the gates of Berlin and Tokyo,” where the war isn’t officially over but the outcome is no longer in doubt.
  • Quote:
    “If Iran, the Iranian regime, is going to collapse, you’ll see all of a sudden, like in Game of Thrones, when you kill the monster, the main monster, all of its soldiers just break into pieces. That’s the hope.” – Amit (02:31)
• Strategic Take:
  • Israel avoids a full-scale Lebanon invasion because regime collapse in Iran would neutralize proxies like Hezbollah and weaken Hamas.
  • Iran’s support is the lynchpin for its regional clients; if the “monster” (the regime) falls, peripheral threats quickly dissipate.
  • Quote:
    “There is no point in sending dozens of thousands of soldiers. The same applies for Hamas… 90% of their income comes from Iran, for instance. So it’s going to be a different Middle East. I would say, wait, wait a few weeks.” – Amit (02:54)
• Dan’s Perspective:
  • He focuses on shifting from slogans like “total victory” to assessing real strategic threats.
  • Quote:
    “The question I ask with every one of these adversaries of Israel is: do they pose a meaningful strategic threat?” – Dan (03:17)

2. Netanyahu’s Political Stakes in the Iran Conflict

• Listener’s Question: Eva from Miami asks about Netanyahu’s and Trump’s stakes in the Iran conflict, both in terms of Israel and the US (04:19).
• Amit’s Analysis:
  • For Netanyahu, this is an historic opportunity—his whole political career has orbited around the threat from Iran.
  • If Iran collapses, Netanyahu’s political fortunes spike dramatically.
  • Quote:
    “Netanyahu’s raison d'être as a politician has been for the last 36 years Iran...if Iran collapses, Netanyahu’s chances of getting reelected would improve dramatically.” – Amit (04:34)
  • Amit notes that, unusually, Israel might eventually urge the U.S. to stop pushing, reversing normal wartime political dynamics.
  • Quote:
    “Usually we ask ourselves…When will the US stop Israel? I would suggest to turn the table around and to ask: When will be the moment in which Israel would urge the United States to stop? Because for Netanyahu, he has already won this war...” – Amit (04:56)
  • Iran is suffering major strategic and economic setbacks: $60 billion lost in GDP, inflation, isolation from neighbors, etc.
  • Quote:
    “They lost, money-wise, something like $60 billion of GDP. It’s something like 20% of the Iranian regime.” – Amit (05:19)
• On Trump:
  • Amit contends Trump has more to lose reputationally if Iran doesn’t collapse, since the American public scrutinizes the rationale for singling Iran out.
  • Quote:
    “Why did they choose specifically Iran? And that’s why President Trump is in a more…urgent need for their achievements…Trump has more to lose from this war than Netanyahu.” – Amit (05:49)

3. National Unity in Israel Around the Iran Question

• Dan’s Observation:
  • Notes the suspension of Israel’s traditional left-vs-right acrimony when it comes to the Iran war.
  • Quote:
    “In Israel…the entire left-right divide, which is usually very persistent…has been non-existent on the issue of dealing with Iran. People who loathe Netanyahu have absolutely no problem with this war he’s prosecuting.” – Dan (06:25)
  • Challenges for the opposition: They must support the government in a national security crisis, even as they prepare to run against Netanyahu in upcoming elections.
  • Quote:
    “…if these two and a half years are going to be…a one big war, it actually marginalizes the failure of October 7th. Because Netanyahu would be not only the architect of the failure, but the architect of the Iranian defeat.” – Amit (07:24)

4. The Role of Qatar Amidst the Iran Conflict

• Listener’s Question: Sarah from Philadelphia asks how the war has affected Qatar’s stance and whether it will be forced to “choose a side.” (07:38)
• Amit’s Quip:
  • Qatar’s diplomacy is predicated on perpetual neutrality and brokering; forced alignment (choosing a side) is antithetical to its identity.
  • Quote:
    “Choosing a side for Qatar is like eating bacon for Jews. I mean, that’s their play always: to mediate, to have, to be just in the middle between the evil and the good, and to make money.” – Amit (07:57)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• WWII Analogy:
  “[O]ctober 7th was Israel’s pearl Harbor. So if we are in World War II now, we are in the gates of Berlin and Tokyo, but Hitler hasn’t surrendered yet.” – Amit (02:06)
• On Iran’s Proxies:
  “When you kill the monster…all of its soldiers just break into pieces. That’s the hope.” – Amit (02:31)
• On Israeli Political Unity:
  “People who loathe Netanyahu have absolutely no problem with this war he’s prosecuting.” – Dan (06:32)
• On Qatar’s Neutrality:
  “Choosing a side for Qatar is like eating bacon for Jews.” – Amit (07:57)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:25] – Setting definitions for “victory,” Iran’s regime as the keystone enemy
• [02:06] – WWII/October 7 analogy, collapse scenarios for Iran
• [03:17] – Changing threat assessments, Hamas and Hezbollah’s diminished capacities
• [04:19] – Netanyahu’s stakes; reversal of usual Israel-US roles
• [05:19] – Strategic and economic cost inflicted on Iran
• [06:25] – Israel’s left-right consensus on Iran
• [07:38] – Qatar’s role and allegiances

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Tone and Language

The episode is candid, informal, and incisive. Amit delivers sharp analogies (e.g., “Game of Thrones”, “Pearl Harbor”, “eating bacon for Jews”) that deliver both humor and clarity. Dan’s moderation keeps the discussion grounded and accessible for an audience seeking realpolitik analysis with a touch of insider color.

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Summary

This “Inside Call Me Back” sneak peek provides a lucid, insider's look into Israel’s calculus regarding Iran’s regime, the diminished state of Iranian proxies, Netanyahu’s political prospects, American interests, and the regional balance. Both host and guest offer strategic insight underpinned by a frank, sometimes wry tone, making complex security dilemmas accessible to a global audience.

Transcript

[A]

You are listening to an art media podcast. Hi, it's Dan. This is a sneak peek from the members only edition of our show Inside Call Me Back where we pull back the curtain and have the conversations we typically have after the cameras stop rolling. I hope you enjoyed this segment and if you want to get the full episode and support our mission at ARC Media, please become an inside Call Me Back member by following the link in the description or or by going to ark media.org that's ark media.org and to all our insiders, thank you. Welcome to the inside edition of the Call Me Back podcast where we pull back the curtain and have the conversations we typically have after the cameras stop rolling. Thank you for subscribing to the show and supporting the Call Me Back podcast, podcast and everything we do here at ARK Media. And also welcome to those of you who have recently joined us today in the hot seat. Addressing your questions and personal dilemmas is Ark Media's Amit Segal. Amit, welcome back to the Inside.

[B]

How are you, Dan?

[A]

How am I? How are you?

[B]

Listen, I mean Iran has already bombed 10 countries, so I guess New York City is on its way. Unless they have a non aggression pact with Mandani.

[A]

Maybe mutual love.

[B]

It's not just non aggression mutual love. Yes, yes.

[A]

Okay, let's jump into our subscribers questions. First one is Jake from New Jersey who asks. This one is for a meat, so this is good that you're on. Iran, Jake says, still holds 400 kg of military grade enriched uranium. The Ayatollah is still in place, or at least the Ayatollah's regime he says is still in place. Yesterday Hezbollah fired rockets at Tel Aviv and Hamas is still in Gaza. Yes, they are dramatically degraded, but in all honesty, outside the boundaries of a spinnable message was setting, quote, unquote, total victory as a measure of success. A bridge too far.

[B]

Okay, so this is one way to look at it. I have a different perspective, I think, and I remember that we talked about it in New York City in October after the end of the Gaza war. That October 7th was Israel's pearl Harbor. So if we are in World War II now, we are in the gates of Berlin and Tokyo, but Hitler hasn't surrendered yet. This specific Hitler is already dead. But you still have those divisions here and there and fighting going on. But if Iran, the Iranian regime is going to collapse, you'll see all of a sudden, like in the Game of Thrones, when you kill the monster, the main monster, all of its soldiers just break into pieces. That's the hope. That's why, in my opinion, Israel doesn't want to invade Lebanon, to have a full scale invasion, because there is no point in it. If the Iran regime is to collapse in a few weeks and we all hope it's going to happen. So Hezbollah is going to die anyway. There is no point in sending dozens of thousands of soldiers. The same applies for Hamas. It's right that Hamas is a case. They were established before, 20 years before they got the support of Iran, and nonetheless, 90% of their income comes from Iran, for instance. So it's going to be a different Middle East. I would say. Wait, wait a few weeks.

[A]

Yeah, I agree. I also think the question I ask with every one of these adversaries of Israel is do they pose a meaningful strategic threat to Israel on October 6th, as we now know, Hamas posed a meaningful strategic threat to Israel today. It does not. It does not mean that there aren't some of Hamas still roaming around Gaza, obviously, but their capacity to really pose a threat, at least right now and for the foreseeable future, that is gone. I don't know if that means total victory or not, but it's a meaningful change. And I feel the same way about Hezbollah. And certainly Syria no longer doesn't pose the same threat. And I think the same will be true of Iran. Okay, Eva from Miami asks. This morning I listened to Walter Russell Mead on Call Me Back. That's impressive. Eva means you listen to it. Top of the day I listened to Walter Russell me on Call Me Back speaking about Trump's high stakes gamble on Iran. What are the stakes for Netanyahu in this war with Iran? And also what are the stakes for Netanyahu with the United States?

[B]

So politically speaking, there are no risks for Netanyahu. Exactly the other way around. Netanyahu's raison d' etre as a politician has been for the last 36 years Iran. So now when push comes to shove and he has the chance to attack Iran and destroy the fundamentalist regime, I, I mean, it goes without saying that if Iran collapses, Netanyahu's chances of getting reelected would improve dramatically. I'll say even something more dramatic than this. Usually we ask ourselves at this phase of a war or military operation, when will the US Stop Israel? I would suggest to turn the table around and to ask when will be the moment in which Israel would urge the United States to stop? Because for Netanyahu, he has already won this war. He can win it more decisively if the regime collapses and there is a liberal pro Western pro Israeli regime.

[A]

But why? If the war stops today, why is this still a win for Netanyahu already?

[B]

Because we weakened the Iranian regime dramatically. They lost, money wise is something like $60 billion of GDP. It's something like 20% of the Iranian regime. They are no longer capable of maneuvering between the Gulf countries in Azerbaijan, et etc. It's Iran versus the rest of the world. The situation is only going to deteriorate and inflation is still skyrocketing. So the public at some point would actually topple the regime. However, when it comes to President Trump, he hasn't made the winning move yet. Why? Because many Americans keep asking themselves, okay, they're evil, we know it, they're fundamentalists. We are quite sure about it. But there are many fundamentalist evil countries on earth. Why did they choose specifically Iran? And that's why President Trump is in a more, I don't want to call it desperate, but in a more urgent need for their achievements. I'm not saying that Netanyahu wants the war to end. I'm just saying that politically speaking, Trump has more to lose from this war than Netanyahu.

[A]

You know, I've been struck by the degree to which, at least in Israel, in conversations I have the entire left right divide, which is obviously usually very persistent in Israeli politics and in Israeli society, has been non existent on the issue of dealing with Iran. There's as wide and deep a consensus politically as one could imagine. People who loathe Netanyahu have absolutely no problem with this war he's prosecuting.

[B]

Yes, it's a huge problem for the opposition, but why is it a huge

[A]

problem for the opposition? Because they have to rally behind this prime minister that they'll be running against in a few months.

[B]

Yes. And especially if this is the issue of the election. Plus, October 7 was the number one burden on Netanyahu's shoulders from a political perspective. Accountability, lack of accountability. The huge failure, 1200 casualties, hostages. So the hostages are home. And if these two and a half years are going to be packed and conceptualized as a one big war, it actually marginalizes the failure of October 7th. Because Netanyahu would be not only the architect of the failure, but the architect of the Iranian defeat.

[A]

Okay, Sarah from Philadelphia writes, longtime Call me back listener, new to Inside. Call me back. So welcome, Sarah. Thank you for becoming an insider. My question, Sarah writes, how has the war with Iran impacted Qatar's position in the region? Must Qatar finally choose a side?

[B]

Okay, choosing a side for Qatar is like eating bacon for Jews. I mean, that's their play always to mediate, to have to be just in the middle between the evil and the good, and to make money.

[A]

That's it for our sneak peek today. If you want to catch the full episode, please subscribe to inside. Call me back by following the link in the description or by going to arkmedia. Org. That's arkmedia. Org. Your support is what allows us to do what we do here at arc media. I hope to see you there.