Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
Episode: Could Trump’s Vision for Gaza Be Real?
Guests: Amit Segal & Nadav Eyal
Release Date: February 10, 2025

I. Introduction and Context

The episode opens with Dan Senor addressing the emotional aftermath of Israel’s recent hostage release, where three hostages—Levy, Ohad Ben Ami, and Eli Sharabi—were brought back home. Recorded on the morning of Friday, February 7th, the conversation reflects on the profound impact of witnessing the suffering of hostages, drawing harrowing parallels to historical atrocities faced by Jews during the Holocaust.

Dan Senor remarks:

“[...] we have heard the terms crime against humanity and genocide thrown around a lot in the past 16 months... these images remind us what an actual crime against humanity looks like.”
[00:00]

He underscores the brutality inflicted by Hamas, highlighting the recent atrocities committed against hostages and their families. The emotional weight of these events sets the stage for a deeper discussion about Israel’s future actions and international dynamics.

II. Trump's Proposal and Shifting the Overton Window

Dan introduces the main topic: President Trump's unexpected proposal regarding Gaza, which suggests U.S. control and the relocation of the Gazan population. This idea marks a significant shift in the political discourse, challenging the traditional Overton window that had long favored a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.

Amit Segal analyzes the impact of Trump’s announcement:

“President Trump threw a stone on the Overton window. He just smashed it.”
[07:45]

He explains that what was once considered taboo—mass immigration and population transfer—has suddenly become a viable topic, reflecting a dramatic change in the possibilities discussed within Israeli society and global politics.

III. Israeli Political Reactions and Feasibility

The conversation delves into Israeli political responses to Trump's proposal. Amit Segal notes widespread support among Israeli parties, with only Mansour Abbas of the Muslim Arab Party expressing opposition.

“The only politician in Israel to actually come out against it was Mansoor Abbas...”
[09:17]

Dan contrasts this with historical left-wing opposition, suggesting that contemporary center-left and hard-left factions are now more open to these extreme measures, a significant departure from past sentiments.

IV. Implementation Challenges and Strategic Considerations

Nadav Eyal provides a critical perspective on the feasibility of Trump's plan. He emphasizes the necessity of Israel taking full control of Gaza to implement mass relocation, questioning the practicality and political will required for such an endeavor.

“To implement the President's plan, you need to take control of the entire Gaza Strip, you need to win against Hamas.”
[12:19]

He also highlights the U.S. White House's wavering commitment, suggesting that initial enthusiasm has been tempered by practical challenges and political hesitations within the U.S.

Amit Segal adds:

“Hamas is not going to allow voluntarily immigration from the Gaza Strip.”
[19:20]

This underscores the significant obstacles in persuading Gazans to relocate, given Hamas’s influence and the population’s historical ties to Gaza.

V. Impact on Israeli Politics and Government Stability

The discussion shifts to the internal political ramifications in Israel, particularly the fragility of Netanyahu’s government. Amit explains how the hostage deal has already weakened the coalition, with Ben Gvir leaving the government, bringing the coalition below the sustainable threshold.

“Netanyahu's coalition is 63, which is a very narrow coalition.”
[30:29]

He warns of potential government collapse if the budget fails to pass, which is likely due to ongoing political tensions and conflicting party agendas.

Nadav Eyal further explores the dilemma Netanyahu faces:

“For Netanyahu, the best thing to do after the first phase of the deal is to resume the war one way or another.”
[37:11]

This highlights the precarious balance Netanyahu must maintain between fulfilling political promises and managing the coalition’s stability.

VI. Palestinian Responses and National Narrative

Nadav and Amit discuss how Trump's proposal is influencing Palestinian sentiment. They note a significant portion of Gazans express a desire to emigrate, driven by the ongoing conflict and the promise of a better life offered by the U.S. plan.

Nadav Eyal states:

“This plan really enhances a notion called tsumud... sticking to the ground with all the hardships.”
[41:35]

He explains that while many Palestinians long for a future outside Gaza, cultural and historical attachments to their homeland create a complex emotional landscape, reinforcing resilience and perseverance despite adverse conditions.

Amit Segal adds:

“500,000 Palestinians emigrating would make a difference.”
[45:22]

He likens this potential migration to historical population movements, emphasizing that even partial relocation could significantly alter the regional dynamics and historical narratives.

VII. International Perspectives and Future Implications

The conversation broadens to consider international reactions and the strategic implications of Trump’s strategy. Both guests express skepticism about the U.S. administration’s commitment to supporting such an ambitious plan long-term, particularly regarding financial investments and military involvement.

Nadav Eyal observes:

“The White House is slowly walking back from commitment.”
[12:19]

He emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. stance, especially in light of shifting priorities and potential policy reversals, which could undermine the feasibility of the Gaza plan.

Amit Segal critiques the Trump administration’s consistency:

“He puts out a provocative idea... and then follows up by correcting his staff.”
[15:45]

This pattern, he suggests, may lead to disillusionment and hinder the development of a coherent and actionable plan for Gaza.

VIII. Additional Insights and Related Topics

In a notable segment towards the end, Nadav shares an unrelated yet significant story about a top Hamas official's clandestine meeting with an Iranian military officer prior to the October 7th assaults. This revelation points to deeper layers of regional conspiracies and intelligence failures.

Nadav Eyal explains:

“Hamas is sending an official to Beirut to tell Hassan Nasrallah we are going to attack Israel.”
[50:14]

This account underscores the complex interplay between regional actors and the potential for premeditated coordinated attacks that could further destabilize the region.

IX. Closing Remarks and Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with Dan Senor highlighting President Trump's commendation of the IDF, noting its rare praise from a U.S. president amidst mixed international sentiments.

Dan shares:

“President Trump praises the young men and women of the IDF... it was an important reminder.”
[59:07]

Amit Segal responds by acknowledging the lack of media coverage in Israel regarding Trump’s supportive remarks, suggesting it went unnoticed due to prevailing media norms favoring "no news is good news."

“Since it was not controversial, it wasn't covered in the Israeli media.”
[59:12]

Nadav Eyal wraps up with concerns about current and future threats, emphasizing the critical nature of ongoing conflicts and the need for vigilant strategy to ensure Israel’s security.

“If Israel goes the wrong path, people, you know, Israeli soldiers and families and hostages will die.”
[48:35]

Dan Senor thanks his guests and encourages listeners to engage with Ark Media for further insights, closing the episode with a heartfelt Shabbat Shalom.

Key Takeaways

• Trump’s proposal marks a significant shift in Israeli-Palestinian discourse, challenging long-standing diplomatic frameworks.
• Israeli political landscape is highly volatile, with Netanyahu’s government teetering on the brink of collapse due to internal dissent.
• Implementation of population relocation faces monumental feasibility issues, including Hamas’s resistance and lack of sustained U.S. support.
• Palestinian population is split between a desire to stay in Gaza and the prospects of emigration, influenced by historical ties and present hardships.
• Regional dynamics remain complex, with clandestine meetings and intelligence challenges pointing to deeper instability.
• International support, particularly from the U.S., is uncertain, potentially complicating future plans and regional security.

Notable Quotes

• Dan Senor on the impact of hostage images:

  “[...] these images remind us what an actual crime against humanity looks like.”
  [00:00]

• Amit Segal on shifting the Overton window:

  “President Trump threw a stone on the Overton window. He just smashed it.”
  [07:45]

• Nadav Eyal on the necessity of Israel taking control:

  “To implement the President's plan, you need to take control of the entire Gaza Strip, you need to win against Hamas.”
  [12:19]

• Amit Segal on political strategy:

  “He puts out a provocative idea... and then follows up by correcting his staff.”
  [15:45]

• Nadav Eyal on Palestinian resilience:

  “This plan really enhances a notion called tsumud... sticking to the ground with all the hardships.”
  [41:35]

For more detailed insights and ongoing updates, visit arkmedia.org.