Call Me Back with Dan Senor

Episode Title: DEAL or WAR - with Col. (Ret.) Miri Eisin
Date: August 21, 2025
Guest: Col. (Ret.) Miri Eisin

Overview

In this episode, Dan Senor welcomes Col. (Ret.) Miri Eisin, renowned former IDF intelligence officer and current academic, to dissect the urgent choices confronting Israel as it weighs Hamas' proposal for a hostage-ceasefire deal against calls to expand military operations in Gaza. The conversation delves into military, political, and regional dynamics, unpacking what’s at stake for Israelis, Palestinians, and the wider Middle East.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Dilemma: Hostage Deal vs. Gaza Offensive

• Military action’s double-edged sword:
  • Miri acknowledges that while a full military takeover of Gaza is technically achievable, “the question is the price. The price in that sense is how many uninvolved killed. How many soldiers will be killed?” (05:29)
  • She highlights the grave concern that renewed offensives could cause Hamas to execute hostages and publicize it, further traumatizing Israeli society.

    “The only way to actually impact Hamas is through the military action that we're taking. But I severely think that the military action… will also bring about the execution of the hostages… to put it out there, to totally tear us apart. Because we're going to blame ourselves for their executing the hostages.” - Miri Eisin (00:08, repeated with depth at 09:52)

• Strategic ambiguity and internal divisions:
  • Israel faces profound decisions between accepting an imperfect deal—potentially leaving some hostages behind—or risking further loss of life by pushing forward militarily.

2. The Shifting International & Regional Backdrop

• Mounting diplomatic pressure:
  • Dan observes, “It has felt over the last few weeks that there has been this just incredible pressure mounting on Israel, all these governments recognizing a Palestinian state or planning to… almost incentivizing Hamas to not come to the table?” (07:15)
  • Miri argues that these recognitions "benefit Hamas, not the Palestinians. It’s legitimizing Hamas and at the exact same time delegitimizing Israel." (08:55)
• Arab states’ recalibration:
  • Miri highlights a sharp shift: "They [Egypt, Jordan, Emirates, Bahrain] have made statements I have not heard before… Hamas cannot rule. Not only that, but Hamas cannot have weapons." (13:17)
  • She remarks on the unprecedented positions in Lebanon and Syria, noting hope that these developments could begin to limit Iranian influence and isolate Hamas and Hezbollah.

  “The new Lebanese government hates Israel, but damn, they hate Iran and Hezbollah more. The new Syrian government, many of them are jihadi… but they hate Iran more.” (22:25)

3. The Paradox and Pain of Negotiating with Hamas

• Negotiation stalemates:
  • The conversation explores the tactical chess match:
    • Hamas, now fearing complete isolation after a full deal, prefers a partial agreement and to retain leverage via a few remaining hostages.
    • Israel, driven by the desire to bring all captives home and to neutralize Hamas, is now demanding a full deal—even as it doubts Hamas’ intentions.

    “For us, our strategic interest is our existence, is our social fabric, is our being here… and right now, Hamas's strategic interest in holding the hostages is because it tears us apart and… they want to annihilate us.” - Miri Eisin (10:46)

  • The pain for Israeli society is palpable:

    “If they kill one hostage and they tell us, and they send a photo… we will blame our government. Great. For Hamas.” - Miri Eisin (17:35)

  • Miri’s candid admission: “I'd rather get back right now, 10 alive and a partial, because I never believed that they would give all 50. And I'm like, you can get 10, get the 10, but what about the other 10? What do you tell them?” (18:15)

4. The United States' Waning (or Shifting) Role

• Diminished direct influence:
  • Miri notes that the U.S. administration is “not in it right now, not in the way that they were involved before.”
  • She comments on the changed perception: “In the younger generation, we're viewed as the… evil strong…” and describes how it’s personally jarring to be seen that way in the U.S. (19:19-20:26)

5. Linking All Fronts: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Beyond

• Integrated regional tapestry:
  • Miri argues that events in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria are tightly interwoven:

    “What's happening in the Gaza Strip, in the hostages, is totally connected to what's happening in Lebanon, to what's happening in Syria, for that matter, in Iran and in all of our arena.” (20:56)

  • She underscores the remarkable changes:
    • Lebanon and Syria forming governments hostile to Iran and Hezbollah.
    • Iran’s foreign minister literally being denied Syrian airspace—a “new world.” (22:56)
  • Yet she cautions that new regimes bring their own risks, notably jihadi tendencies.

6. What Is Israel’s Near-Term Objective?

• Stabilization, not romanticism:
  • Israel seeks stability more than friendship, preferring a steady Lebanon or Syria—even those led by former adversaries—over unpredictability and violence.
  • She notes the importance of balancing this with security for Israel’s Druze community and the risk of new jihadi threats.

    “You want stability. Chaos is bad for us… But we don't want to be those who are helping to stabilize a country that is going to attack us because they're jihadi.” (24:42)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the agony of hostages as terror policy:

  “Taking 256 hostages, genius.” - Miri Eisin (18:52)

• On Arab world’s shift:

  “For the first time almost two years after October 7th… the Arab League put out a strong statement against Hamas.” - Dan Senor (16:55)

• On the new Middle East:

  “We are in a new world. When the president of Lebanon says that Hezbollah has to disarm and he's not yet killed, wow, we're in a new world.” - Miri Eisin (26:57)

• On public protest and its impact:

  “Half a million Israelis protesting for the hostages does enable, embolden Hamas. And I'm terrible, I hate that I'm saying that.” - Miri Eisin (15:31)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Military action vs. hostages: 00:08, 05:20, 09:52
• Diplomatic pressures and Palestinian state recognition: 07:10, 08:55
• Regional change and Arab world dynamics: 13:17, 14:44, 16:55
• Hamas negotiation strategy: 11:56, 13:17
• U.S. position and changing American perceptions: 19:08, 19:19
• How regional fronts interact: 20:56, 22:25, 22:56
• Israel’s practical objectives with neighboring regimes: 24:40

Tone & Style

The conversation is candid, analytical, sometimes anguished but often pragmatic. Miri speaks as both a strategist and a mother, alternating between emotional urgency and clinical assessment. Dan Senor offers context, pushes back with fair skepticism, and absorbs new insights in “real-time.” Both try to maintain a sober, factual approach, but do not shy from expressing frustration, uncertainty, and moral pain.

Final Reflection

The episode draws to a close with the recognition that Israel’s dilemmas remain unresolved—even as the region around it undergoes seismic shifts. For all the agony of possible paths forward, Senor and Eisin underscore that the Middle East’s landscape is fundamentally changing for Israel, Hamas, and their neighbors, offering both hope and fresh danger.

Summary compiled by Call Me Back Podcast Summarizer