Call Me Back - with Dan Senor Episode Summary: "DESTROY, DELAY OR DISMANTLE? - with Nadav Eyal and Karim Sadjapour" Release Date: June 18, 2025

Introduction

In this pivotal episode of "Call Me Back," hosted by Dan Senor of Ark Media, experts Nadav Eyal and Karim Sadjapour delve into the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Released amidst a surge of military actions and geopolitical shifts, the discussion provides a comprehensive analysis of the current crisis, exploring the strategic options available to Israel and the broader implications for the Middle East.

Recent Developments in the Israeli-Iranian Conflict

The episode opens with Nadav Eyal providing a news roundup of the critical events that have unfolded:

• Assassinations of Iranian Military Leaders: Israel has recently eliminated Ali Shadmani, Iran's new wartime chief of staff, just four days after the assassination of his predecessor, Gholam Ali Rashid (01:03).

• Damage to Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that 1,500 centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant are likely destroyed or damaged following Israeli strikes (01:03).

• Reduction of Iranian Missile Launchers: Approximately 40% of Iran's missile launchers have been destroyed, leading to a decrease in missile attacks on Israel. Notably, last night marked the first night without Israeli civilian casualties since the war began (01:03).

• Global Repercussions: President Trump’s early departure from the G7 summit in Canada and his evacuation order for Tehran residents highlight the international ramifications (01:03).

Notable Quote: “This is why we've seen a reduced number of missile launches over the past two days. In fact, last night was the first without Israeli civilian casualties since the war began last week.” — Nadav Eyal (01:03)

Analysis of Israel’s Military Actions

Dan Senor and Karim Sadjapour discuss Israel's tactical advancements:

• Precision Strikes: Israel's elimination of key military figures in Iran mirrors its previous strategies against Hezbollah, aiming to decapitate military leadership and sow disarray (03:43).

• Air Superiority: Israel now possesses unrestricted aerial dominance over Western Iran and Tehran, significantly limiting Iran's air defense capabilities. This enhanced intelligence allows for real-time targeting and continuous operational momentum (03:43).

• Missile Defense and Offense: While Israel's Iron Dome can intercept fewer ballistic missiles effectively, the IDF has successfully destroyed a substantial portion of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal. However, lingering threats from missile launches remain a concern (03:43).

Notable Quote: “The IDF is now briefing that Iran's military Leadership is on the run. They're not just saying that. They mean that some of them are trying to flee their command centers.” — Dan Senor (03:43)

Iranian Societal and Political Sentiment

Karim Sadjapour provides an in-depth look into the Iranian populace's reaction:

• Historical Context: Unlike Israeli society, which is accustomed to missile threats, Iranian society hasn’t faced such direct military aggression since the Iran-Iraq War ended in 1988 (08:50).

• Public Perception: Initial reactions showed limited sympathy for the regime, with many Iranians viewing the military actions as detrimental. However, the societal response has since polarized, amplifying existing political divides (08:50).

• Regime Stability: Despite significant military setbacks, the regime under Ayatollah Khamenei remains resilient, with public protests still in nascent stages due to the ongoing conflict environment (08:50).

Notable Quote: “I think it's essential that any type of government like that, the first thing you would do is you would, you know, you need to normalize relations with the U.S.” — Karim Sadjapour (25:40)

Potential Outcomes and Strategies

The discussion shifts to strategic pathways for resolving the conflict:

• Options for Israel:

  1. Destroy: Complete annihilation of Iran’s nuclear program.
  2. Delay: Impede Iran's progress without total destruction.
  3. Dismantle: Negotiate the disassembly of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

• Karim’s Insights:

  • Rapprochement Possibility: Post-Khamenei, Iran could shift towards a nationalist government prioritizing national interests over revolutionary ideology, potentially normalizing relations with the U.S. and dismantling its nuclear program (22:09).

• Dan’s Perspective:

  • Military Efficacy: Israel has effectively neutralized key military assets, but the long-term sustainability of these gains remains uncertain if the U.S. does not align fully with Israel's objectives (36:32).

Notable Quote: “This nuclear program has been an enormous strategic liability and a financial albatross for this regime.” — Karim Sadjapour (44:14)

Unity within Israeli Society

Nadav Eyal highlights a significant, often overlooked, aspect of the current conflict:

• National Consilience: Despite internal political differences, Israeli society is remarkably unified in supporting military actions against Iran. Even opposition leaders like Yair Lapid have publicly backed the government's stance (27:53).

• Public Perception of Protests: Contrary to international observers, domestic protests in Israel are not indicative of societal fracture but are instead expressions of patriotic commitment and collective national defense.

Notable Quote: “The opposition supports this. There is a consensus in Israel today.” — Nadav Eyal (27:53)

US Involvement and Strategic Implications

A critical analysis of the potential role of the United States in the conflict:

• Decision-Making Dynamics: Unlike typical administrations, U.S. foreign policy in this scenario appears to hinge primarily on President Trump’s directives, with a small advisory circle influencing decisions (53:11).

• Possible Scenarios:

  1. Full US Involvement: Deployment of B2 bombers and advanced weaponry to assist Israel in dismantling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
  2. Negotiated Settlement: Utilizing Israeli military pressure to bring Iran to the negotiating table for a phased dismantling of its nuclear program.
  3. Prolonged Conflict: Continued military engagement without a clear endgame, leading to an extended and costly conflict for both nations.

Notable Quote: “We're really living through a momentous moment in the history of the Middle East.” — Dan Senor (51:02)

Conclusion and Future Projections

As the episode draws to a close, the guests reflect on the long-term implications:

• Strategic Shifts: Israel’s military successes signal a possible shift in regional power dynamics, challenging the notion that a direct confrontation with Iran is untenable.

• Uncertain Outcomes: The future remains unpredictable, hinging on factors such as the potential death of Ayatollah Khamenei, internal elite fissures within the Iranian regime, and the extent of U.S. involvement.

• Lasting Impact: The conflict is likely to be remembered not just for the immediate military outcomes but for how it shapes the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in the years to come.

Notable Quote: “This is how Israel is united about this. If the Iranians try to do this again, they'll be attacked again.” — Dan Senor (51:02)

Key Takeaways:

• Israel has achieved significant military successes against Iran, weakening its missile capabilities and decapitating its military leadership.

• Iranian society remains largely polarized, with limited immediate public uprising despite severe military and economic setbacks.

• The potential for U.S. involvement is critical, with strategic options ranging from continued military pressure to negotiated disarmament agreements.

• Israeli societal unity presents a strong front, potentially deterring future escalations and fostering regional stability aligned with Israeli security interests.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• “The IDF is now briefing that Iran's military Leadership is on the run. They're not just saying that. They mean that some of them are trying to flee their command centers.” — Dan Senor (03:43)

• “I think the pretext the regime gives that we can't give this up or we can't compromise because people wouldn't allow it. That's totally false.” — Karim Sadjapour (44:37)

• “We're seeing Israel doing to Iran what it did to Hezbollah.” — Dan Senor (03:43)

• “This is a regime which is outmatched. And, you know, that's not surprising because it's behaved as economically failing police state over the last four decades.” — Karim Sadjapour (19:12)

• “This is how Israel is united about this. If the Iranians try to do this again, they'll be attacked again.” — Dan Senor (51:02)

For more insights and in-depth analyses on the complexities facing Israel and global geopolitics, visit arkmedia.org.