B (2:30)

All right, let's dive into the real questions of the day. I have a fresh one coming from Nathan from Jerusalem. I read a tweet this morning from Amit Segal. Saying that Netanyahu asked Trump to delay the attack on Iran, fearing that Israel was not ready for an Iranian response. What are your thoughts on that?

A (2:49)

So obviously playing this guessing game of timing is tricky under any circumstances, especially with this administration, which has done a very impressive job of keeping everyone guessing, including their enemies, including the governments of the countries that they were about to launch a military operation against. That certainly was the case in June of last year when the Trump administration conveyed that they were going to allow time for negotiations for the next couple weeks, as they said, late May and early June of 2025. And then of course, there was an operation pretty soon after that. And we've seen other situations like this. So trying to read the tea leaves and the signals and I'm just amaz that everyone on X is like an expert on the refueling planes. People are tracking the refueling planes leaving the Al Udaid Air Force Base in Qatar is a sign that maybe they're getting ready to go. Interestingly, those same aircraft left the Al Udaid Air Force Base before the Iran operation in June of last year. That said, I have heard similar things to what Amit is quoting from the New York Times that Netanyahu did ask Trump to wait. Again, I can't verify it, but I've heard similar things from the Trump side. I've heard this from people who, who have a relationship or work closely with President Trump and his team. Again, can't verify it. So all the obvious caveats, you could make the argument, if it's true, that it makes a lot of sense. As Nadav talked about in our last episode of Call Me Back with Karim Sajapur, there were a lot of Iranian military and security assets that the IDF had hoped to finish off during the June war that they never got a chance to. And they're looking to revisit those sites and have an opportunity to take them out once again. And the sense among the Israeli security leadership is at this point with Iran, it's one and done. Like the next time they go, they've got to take everything they think may be there. They may want to just make sure they have all their ducks in a row for doing the offensive part right. And of course they have to prepare for the defensive part given Iran's ballistic missile capabilities. And so there's a logic to it. My only concern is that there's like a flywheel effect to when all the circumstances are in place for the kind of regime changing military operation or a military operation that would kind of finally be the final stage of a regime change process that a bottom up regime change process that we already see playing out. So it does feel to me from afar and based on folks I'm talking to who are pretty immersed in it from different perspectives, people in government, it does feel like the circumstances are in place right now and you just have to wonder what waiting actually means and do you lose some of the momentum and does that hold that flywheel that's in place of everything you in place? Do you jeopardize that flywheel moving at the speed and with the dynamism that you need in order for the regime to fall? We're just not, I mean, I just don't know if it's a missed opportunity.

B (5:45)

It could also signal that the Israeli intelligence knows something about the ammunitions that the Iranians might deploy. In existential mode, we remember that the final missiles that fell on Tel Aviv in the last days of the 12 Day War were significantly more devastating.

A (6:06)

Yeah, it could be that. It could be that they want to, as I said earlier, they want to make sure they maximize the opportunity from an offensive standpoint. It could be a range of factors, but I do think that the explanation for the delay, that it's the Israelis that want the delay rather than the Americans, that is plausible.

B (6:23)

Abraham from Chicago asks why are there reports that Gulf states are against regime change in Iran?

A (6:30)

That's a great question, Abraham, having spoken to some folks in some Gulf states about this very question. One theory that I have heard is that the Gulf states, not all of them, but some of them, prefer a Iran exactly as it is right now. They want the status quo, which is to say an Iran that has no capacity to wage military or terrorist threats around the region. So it has virtually no influence around the world. And Iran, that its economy is on its back foot to say the least. Right. You're talking about 55, 0, something like 50% inflation right now. If you think about food inflation, that's closer to 70%. So the economy's in free fall, not just going to continue with these new sanctions being announced and banks failing and a population that is breathing down the regime's throat. That is an Iran that some of the Gulf states may like to endure, like just keep it just like that, basically weak, impotent, constantly under pressure and.

B (7:35)

Can'T sell oil to the West.

A (7:37)

Yeah, yeah. Or limited. Right, exactly. And it's just like not a factor. And that what some of the Gulf states worry about is if the regime falls and a democratic or quasi democratic secular, modernizing Iran succeeds, it something akin to Obviously much different. But if you think back to the Pahlavi era, like the pre1979 era, and it's a big country with a young population, and if people are doing well there and thriving and modernizing, that is not a great contrast to life in some of the Gulf states. And there are some Gulf monarchies that will not like their populations looking over at Iran and saying, why can't we have that? Why can't we have a version of that? And so rather than get to that, they'd rather just keep Iran basically just hobbling with no arms and legs indefinitely. That's one theory. The other theory is the Gulf states, and I respect this second point, that they don't want more wars in the region. They don't want more wars in their backyard. They want some quiet. They want some stability. And while we all can talk, you know, very passionately about what could follow regime change in Iran, it's in their backyard. So they're gonna have to deal with the chaos or potential chaos and all the volatility introduces to their part of the world, and they just want to postpone that.

B (8:58)

They want to avoid a post Iraq scenario.

A (9:01)

Yeah. Now, I don't think it would be a post Iraq scenario. We could do a whole episode on that at some point. But yes, that is a version of the concern.

B (9:08)

All right, Natalie from Montreal by way of Brooklyn asks, what, in your view, would it actually take to make Jewish education more accessible?

A (9:18)

That's it for our sneak peek today. If you want to catch the full episode, please subscribe to inside. Call me back by following the link in the description or by going to ark media.org that's ark media.org your support is what allows us to do what we do here at arc Media. I hope to see you there.