Podcast Summary: Call Me Back — "Did Israel Win?" with Micah Goodman

Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Dan Senor (with Ark Media, Ilan Benatar)
Guest: Dr. Micah Goodman, author and public intellectual
Theme: Examining whether Israel can claim victory after two years of conflict with Hamas and the broader "Axis of Resistance," exploring military, regional, and diplomatic consequences, and looking at Israel's future challenges.

Episode Overview

The episode addresses the core question: "Did Israel win?" after recent wars, focusing on the complexities beyond immediate military success. Dr. Micah Goodman analyzes the evolution of Israel's conflicts, the failures and adaptations of its adversaries, and the new dilemmas Israel faces—especially internal division, shifting regional alliances, and weakened international legitimacy. The conversation also explores the conditions for turning military advantage into sustainable, recognized victory—highlighting normalization with Arab states as a key factor.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. What Does "Victory" Mean for Israel? (04:37–05:37)

• Two Wars:
  • The narrow war: Israel vs. Hamas — "Ambivalent answers," since Hamas remains intact.
  • The broader war: Israel vs. Iran and its proxies — "Commonly understood that Israel was extremely successful."
    Quote:

  "Did we win the war? The question is, which war are we talking about? The broader war or the more narrow war versus Hamas?"
  — Micah Goodman (04:50)

2. The Evolution of Strategies to Destroy Israel (05:50–14:22)

• Three Phases:
  1. Conventional Armies Attack ("Stage One"): Failed in 1948, 1967, 1973.
     • Egyptian peace (Sadat, 1979) fulfilled Jabotinsky's "Iron Wall" prediction.
  2. Terrorism/Attrition ("Stage Two"): Peaked in Second Intifada; also failed.
  3. "Army of Terrorists" ("Stage Three"):
     • Hybrid armies (Hamas, Hezbollah) combining military hierarchy and terrorist tactics; Qasem Soleimani added the "network effect," hoping for simultaneous multi-front assault.
• October 7th 2023:
  • The plan almost worked; only lack of unity (Hezbollah did not attack in full) prevented catastrophic success against Israel. Quote:

  "They developed a winning strategy... But they weren’t unified enough to implement that strategy."
  — Micah Goodman (13:53)

3. Miscalculations by the "Axis of Resistance" (14:22–18:06)

• Hamas's Two Bets:

  1. On their unity.
  2. On Israeli division and collapse into internal polarization, especially via the graphic broadcast of atrocities.
     Both bets failed:
  • Israeli society remained united for the war, despite polarization over the government.
  • "Central left supported the war even though they didn’t support the government. And the right supported ending the war, even though it was against their ideology..."

• Historical Parallel:

  • The 1948 Independence War: Success came from greater Israeli cooperation and unity, not numbers—repeating today against opponents unable to unite.

4. Why Israel Can't Claim a Simple Victory (19:15–23:52)

• Three Remaining Strategic Problems:

  1. Gaza/Hamas still standing:
     • Temporary arrangements risk becoming permanent ("In the Middle East, everything that seems temporary is permanent.").
  2. Rise of Qatar and Turkey:
     • Defeated proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah), but strengthened their Islamist patrons; new long-term threats emerging.
       "We eliminated an immediate strategic threat and now we have to deal with a long term evolving threat." — MG (20:58)
  3. Erosion of International Legitimacy:
     • Israel won on the battlefield but lost international support, especially in the West—now existentially dependent on an increasingly less reliable U.S.
       "Our support in America is definitely not guaranteed... If we are dependent on America and we can't count on America, Israel is in a very weak position existentially." — MG (22:33)
  • Paradox:
    Victorious in the region, weakest ever in terms of international standing.

5. Path to a Sustainable, Recognized Victory: Normalization (24:08–26:38)

• Normalization as Key:
  • After military wins come diplomatic overtures—normalization with Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, Indonesia, etc.
  • "Process of normalization... would make it much easier for the friends of Israel to come back... Normalization is leveraging the success in order to bring back that currency [of legitimacy]." — MG (24:26)
  • Normalization creates a "Sunni axis" opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood, offsetting Qatar/Turkey/Iran.

6. Obstacles to Normalization: Israeli Politics and Ideology (26:41–30:53)

• The "Price":
  • Not withdrawal or settlements but, for many, merely the rhetoric of supporting a "Palestinian state."
  • "It's not a territorial withdrawal, but a rhetoric withdrawal, which has a lot of meaning." — MG (26:47)
  • Ideological right cannot even say "Palestinian state." Pragmatic right might accept normalization for the strategic benefit.
• Main Schism:
  • Not right vs left, but pragmatic right vs ideological right.
  • Political lines (pro- or anti-Netanyahu) do not match the main ideological division.
  • Formation of a new "coalition of normalization" would require Bibi (Netanyahu) to break from the far right, and the center-left to accept coalition with him—highly implausible due to personal animosities.

7. Netanyahu's Dilemma: Liberty vs Legacy (30:53–33:09)

• Bibi's Two Goals ("The two Ls"):
  1. Liberty: Staying out of jail (legal troubles).
  2. Legacy: Achieving historic normalization and realigning the region (cage Iran as Iran caged Israel).
• Dilemma:
  • The coalition for his liberty is not the coalition for his legacy.
  • If he achieves legal immunity (help from the far right), he may not be able to lead normalization. If he pivots to normalization, he may lose legal protection.
    "Sadly, my guess is if Bibi has to choose between personal needs and the needs of the nation, I think Bibi has a tendency to make the wrong choice. But will he be able with his talents and gifts to try to get both? He’ll try and we’ll see what happens." — MG (32:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hamas's strategic broadcast of atrocities:

  "They thought that broadcasting that will do two things. It will implement their bubble strategy. It will excite the enemies of Israel to unite... and it will also send a shockwave into Israeli society and collapse into our own contradictions."
  — Micah Goodman (14:53)

• On Israel’s new isolation:

  "This is the war that has the opposite impact of the Six Day War. It’s pushing the world away from Israel."
  — Micah Goodman (24:12)

• On normalization as the missing piece:

  "Normalization is the missing piece to declare real victory."
  — Micah Goodman (25:40)

• On Israeli dysfunction after victory:

  "Our strongest moment is our weakest moment. So it's hard to declare victory when you achieve the victory, but the price of the victory turns you very weak."
  — Micah Goodman (23:36)

Key Timestamps

• 04:50 — Ambiguity of "victory": Which war are we talking about?
• 05:50–14:22 — The three historic strategies for destroying Israel; October 7 analysis.
• 14:22–18:06 — Why Israel's adversaries misread Israeli society; parallels to 1948.
• 19:15–23:52 — The three dilemmas making victory incomplete: Gaza, Qatar/Turkey, loss of legitimacy.
• 24:08–26:38 — How normalization could convert the military win into diplomatic legitimacy.
• 26:41–30:53 — Internal Israeli divisions as the main barrier; the "coalition of normalization."
• 30:53–33:09 — Netanyahu’s quandary: Legal personal needs vs. historic strategic legacy.

Conclusion

Dr. Micah Goodman argues that while Israel achieved an unprecedented victory against the effective strategies of its enemies, true victory remains elusive. Israel faces a trio of strategic challenges: a persistent Gaza/Hamas problem, the empowerment of Islamist regional patrons, and a dramatic loss in international legitimacy. Only a diplomatic breakthrough—normalization with core Arab states—can translate military advantage into recognized, sustainable success. However, the deep internal fault lines in Israeli politics, exemplified by tensions between pragmatism and ideology and embodied in Netanyahu’s personal-political dilemmas, may prevent this from happening.

“Normalization is the missing piece to declare real victory.” (25:40)