Podcast Summary: Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Episode: From Famine to Statehood? - with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal
Host: Dan Senor
Guests: Nadav Eyal, Amit Segal
Release Date: July 28, 2025

Introduction

In this thought-provoking episode of Call Me Back, host Dan Senor engages in a deep conversation with contributors Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal. The discussion centers around the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the international community's shifting stance on Palestinian statehood, and the complex dynamics between Israel and Hamas. The episode delves into the implications of recent political maneuvers, the effectiveness of humanitarian aid distribution, and the potential future of Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Key Discussions

1. The UN Recognition of a Palestinian State

• Background: French President Emmanuel Macron announced France's intention to recognize a Palestinian state at an upcoming UN meeting in September, sparking international debate.

• Nadav Eyal's Perspective:
  Nadav views this move as largely symbolic, driven by domestic political pressures rather than a concrete vision for Palestinian statehood. He states,

  "[...] it's less about envisioning, it's more about their public audiences. It's domestic consumption. It's also about pressuring Israel basically saying if you don't stop the war or reach an end to the war, things are going to fall down." ([04:57])

• Amit Segal's Insight:
  Amit highlights historical precedents where similar recognitions did not materialize into actual statehood, referencing past attempts in 1988, 2011, and 2016. He emphasizes the waning influence Israel holds over such international decisions.

  "We don't know yet. And it's not the first time it happens. It happened in 1988... So I wouldn't attribute a lot of importance to this, save what Nadav described as the Israeli collapse in the international public opinion." ([07:34])

2. The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

• Current Situation:
  Reports indicate a severe risk of starvation in Gaza, with research by Yanai Spitzer of Hebrew University confirming skyrocketing prices of essential goods like flour.

• Israel's Response:
  In response, Israel has allowed humanitarian aid airdrops from the UAE and Jordan and is considering military pauses to facilitate aid distribution, a first in the ongoing conflict.

• Amit Segal on Aid Distribution:
  Amit criticizes the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a project primarily supported by Israeli and American interests, asserting that Hamas diverts 80-90% of aid for its own purposes.

  "Hamas is to be blamed for the hunger because Hamas steals 80 or 90% of the humanitarian aid by the United Nations." ([08:25])

• Nadav Eyal on IDF's Humanitarian Poses:
  Nadav explains that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have initiated humanitarian pauses outside Gaza, previously uncharted territory during active conflict.

  "The IDF has just announced on humanitarian poses throughout the Gaza Strip... something the IDF and the government wouldn't do since October 7th." ([10:16])

• Challenges in Aid Distribution:
  The GHF model, designed to prevent Hamas control by centralizing aid distribution, has led to increased risks for civilians trying to access food, resulting in casualties and inflated food prices due to supply risks.

  "The aid needs to come to the people in their community. It's a principle of how you distribute aid in a war zone." ([16:53])

3. Internal Israeli Politics and Public Opinion

• Political Pressures:
  Israeli politicians, particularly from the far-right, have exerted pressure to halt aid to Gaza, viewing it as detrimental to Israel's strategic interests and a response to previous hostage negotiations.

• Public Sentiment:
  Surveys indicate a diminishing support gap in Western countries, especially among younger demographics, with increasing international criticism of Israel's actions in Gaza.

• Nadav Eyal on Domestic Support:
  Nadav points out that while a significant portion of the American public still supports Israel, this support is eroding rapidly among younger populations, influencing international policies.

  "Recently, in our YouGov economist poll in the US, it shows that still a bigger chunk of the American audience supports Israel... But this gap is closing quickly." ([05:44])

4. Implications of International Actions

• France and Canada's Moves:
  Following France's recognition of Palestine, Canada has also announced intentions to follow suit, raising questions about a potential domino effect impacting Israel's standing globally.

• Potential Chain Reaction:
  Nadav and Amit discuss the ramifications of multiple countries recognizing Palestinian statehood, which could undermine Israel's legitimacy and alter geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

5. Negotiations Between Israel and Hamas

• Stalemate in Hostage Talks:
  Recent negotiations for a hostage ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Doha have stalled, leading President Trump to declare that Hamas is not interested in making a deal.

• Future of Negotiations:
  With both the US and Israeli leadership pulling back from negotiations, the prospects for a peaceful resolution appear grim, with potential for intensified military actions and international interventions.

• Amit Segal on Negotiation Breakdown:
  Amit characterizes the current period as "a tale of two cities" for Hamas, experiencing both internal losses and external pressures, making negotiations highly unstable.

  "The worst of times for Hamas... and the best of times because Macron following October 7th... isolates Israel." ([28:03])

6. Potential Outcomes and Future Prospects

• Military Intensification vs. International Pressure:
  The episode explores two converging 'trains'—one of escalating military actions by Israel and the other of increasing international pressure for Palestinian statehood.

• Nadav Eyal's Concerns:
  Nadav warns that Hamas's strategy aims to portray Gaza as a victim to gain international legitimacy, leveraging the humanitarian crisis as a tool for political gains.

  "The big project... is to say the Jewish genocide, the Holocaust... if we convince the world as to our own genocide and famine... our country will be born." ([36:43])

• Feasibility of Hostage Returns:
  While Nadav remains skeptical about the return of hostages without significant concessions from Hamas, he acknowledges the complex realities that make such outcomes uncertain.

  "I can imagine a world in which Hamas returns almost all of the hostages and tries to somehow expand the period of time as much as it can for the last four or five hostages..." ([47:38])

Notable Quotes

1. Nadav Eyal on Hamas's Intentions:

   "Only through violence will our state be born. And through the sacrifice, through the shahid, through the way of the jihad and all the rest." ([36:43])

2. Amit Segal on Humanitarian Aid Mismanagement:

   "If the UN was interested in solving the hunger crisis in Gaza, they would say no matter how the humanitarian aid is provided from the air, the sea, the GHF, we are for it." ([08:25])

3. Dan Senor on Israel's Strategic Decisions:

   "If Israel had pulled back in the time period you're talking about, Sinwar was killed in October of 24... there are some pretty important developments that occurred in Gaza for Israel." ([40:28])

4. Nadav Eyal on International Perception:

   "This was the project of Yahya Sinwar... Only through violence will our state be born." ([36:43])

Conclusion

The episode From Famine to Statehood? presents a comprehensive analysis of the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict, highlighting the intricacies of humanitarian aid distribution, shifting international alliances, and the unyielding stance of Hamas. Through the insights of Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges facing Israel internally and externally, the strategic missteps in managing Gaza's crisis, and the precarious balance between military actions and diplomatic negotiations. As the international community weighs its support, the future of Gaza and the broader pursuit of peace in the region remain uncertain, underscored by the persistent resilience and adaptability of Hamas.

Produced by: Elon Benatar
Sound and Video Editing: Martin Huergo and Mary Angelis Burgos
Director of Operations: Maya Rakoff
Research: Gabe Silverstein
Music: Yuval Semo

For more insights and to explore past episodes, visit arkmedia.org.