Podcast Summary:

Call Me Back with Dan Senor
Episode: Hamas Isn't Surrendering, It's Evolving – with Yonatan Adiri
Date: November 10, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks Israel's evolving security dilemmas and regional dynamics in the wake of significant hostage releases from Gaza and shifting power structures after two years of conflict. Host Dan Senor and guest Yonatan Adiri, tech entrepreneur and commentator, examine how Hamas, while militarily degraded, is tactically repositioning itself on the diplomatic stage—"trading rockets for stamps and tunnels for offices." The discussion expands to cover the roles of international players—especially Turkey and Qatar—future reconstruction and normalization scenarios, and the hard choices now facing Israel.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The New Status Quo Post-Conflict

(07:23–11:43)

• Israel currently controls over half of Gaza and has retrieved living hostages, leading to relief at home.
• Increased international, particularly U.S., military and diplomatic presence through entities like the CMCC (Combined Maritime Coordination Center) is perceived by some as a reduction in Israeli sovereignty over Gaza.
• The UAE and Saudi Arabia have conditioned their involvement in Gaza’s reconstruction on the full disarmament of Hamas.

“We have the living hostages back. We control more than 50% of Gaza. But there is this new animal… the CMCC, run by the U.S. Central Command… some are arguing this is a degree of freedom that Israel lost over Gaza.”
— Yonatan Adiri (07:23)

2. Israeli Public Sentiment and Societal Reset

(09:18–11:43)

• After years of high tension and war, Israelis are momentarily “leaning back.” There’s relief on the streets, but vigilance remains.
• Internal politics quickly attention, e.g., debates over ultra-Orthodox army service and a scandal with the military’s Judge Advocate General.
• Normalization with Saudi Arabia is seen as a possible real "victory" in the public’s eyes.

“For two years, the entire country felt like they were just on and on edge and being stressed. And for the first time, I feel like that has really kind of receded.”
— Dan Senor (10:04)

“People still have a kind of an open eye… no one really feels it's really behind us.”
— Yonatan Adiri (11:43)

3. The Evolution of Hamas – Neo Hamas

(12:20–18:25)

• Hamas is transforming itself rather than surrendering. Adiri dubs this iteration “Neo Hamas” – moving from military engagement to gaining legitimacy through integration with the Palestinian Authority and international diplomacy.
• Turkey and Qatar are key new backers, replacing Iran in supporting Hamas’s strategic goals.
• Hamas is adopting a less overt presence in Gaza, presenting itself as technocratic internal security rather than as the militant group it once was.

“I called it on the piece neo Hamas. Like, you know, like we have neo Nazis… They're not sending Jews to death camps, but they are around and they are very capable at what they do.”
— Yonatan Adiri (12:39)

“Hamas… is morphing into the technocrat government… to take over the Palestinian national movement and basically climb up to the diplomatic level and continue the struggle from there.”
— Yonatan Adiri (14:18)

4. The International and Regional Game: Turkey & Qatar

(19:54–25:25)

• Turkey is described as aiming to become a “neo-Ottoman” regional power, filling vacuums left by declining Iranian influence and investing heavily in influence campaigns, military industry, and proxy groups.
• Qatar leverages its wealth and global soft power, forming a partnership where Turkey acts as the geopolitical heavyweight with Qatar as the bankroll.
• The Iran containment strategy (diplomatic, economic, intelligence/kinetic) cannot be equally applied to Turkey due to its NATO membership and critical economic relationships.

“Turkey wants to make Turkey great again… It is engaged in Central Asia with Azerbaijan… It is operating what it called the Mavivatan, which is the strategy of the blue homeland from the Black Sea all the way to Libya, the Mediterranean, claiming that as its own waters…”
— Yonatan Adiri (20:28)

“Qatar is now kind of looking into this synergy with Turkey that can help it further enhance its global posture.”
— Yonatan Adiri (24:52)

5. The U.S. Position and Preventing a Regional “Winner-Takes-All”

(28:04–29:38)

• The U.S. appears intent on preventing any single coalition (Saudi–Israel, or Turkey–Qatar) from dominating the Middle East, seeking an “equilibrium” instead.
• This leads to U.S. tolerance for Turkish and Qatari roles in Gaza, even as it curtails Israel’s freedom of action.

“I think America wants to prevent a winner take all dynamic in the Middle East. It wants to see an equilibrium shaping up…”
— Yonatan Adiri (28:13)

6. Competing Axes: India–Saudi–Israel vs. Turkey–Qatar–Hamas

(29:48–33:05)

• On one side: Turkey, Qatar, and Neo Hamas; on the other, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Emirates, and possibly India—linked by projects like IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor).
• Turkey is threatened by bypass routes (e.g., India–Saudi–Israel–Europe) that diminish its leverage over regional corridors.

“There's this sort of India, Saudi, the whole IMEC dynamic on one side, and Turkey, Qatar and neo Hamas on the other… If you're Ankara… there will not be any corridor that doesn't go through Turkey.”
— Yonatan Adiri (31:15)

7. The Role of Saudi Arabia and UAE – Conditional Engagement

(33:05–35:28)

• The Saudis and Emiratis are refusing active engagement until Hamas's military power is truly neutralized.
• Both nations take a principled anti–Muslim Brotherhood stance, signaling no tolerance for groups like Hamas to shape Gaza’s future.

“We have to applaud the Saudis and the Emiratis for sticking to their guns… in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and as of a couple of months ago in Jordan, the Muslim Brotherhood is illegal.”
— Yonatan Adiri (34:01)

8. The Future of Gaza: Reconstruction and "West Gaza/East Gaza"

(35:28–38:11)

• Gaza’s reconstruction will likely begin with differentiated development for "East Gaza," with Western sectors arriving later depending on security.
• Upcoming political processes—like a possible normalization pathway between Israel and Saudi Arabia—are intertwined with these developments.
• There is risk if normalization is delayed or derailed; the reconstruction process could be coopted by Hamas’s evolving form.

“We may end up seeing what is referred to here… as West Gaza, East Gaza dynamics. We're going to see the east of the yellow line… real economic development projects starting to step forward.”
— Yonatan Adiri (35:33)

9. Israel’s Upcoming Hard Choices: Security vs. Diplomacy

(38:11–43:37)

• Israel must decide: is it willing to accept the existence of a "Neo Hamas" for the sake of regional normalization, or should it focus its strategy solely on security?
• Internally, Israel faces the end of a post-Cold War political paradigm; a new political vision is necessary to avoid repeating historical mistakes like the Yom Kippur War aftermath (incumbent government reelected despite national trauma).

“There are two tough choices… One, vis a vis Gaza, are we willing to live with Hamas 4.0 or a Neo Hamas in order to facilitate the normalization process…? And the second… is Israel willing to recognize the death of its old political paradigm…?”
— Yonatan Adiri (38:23)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Hamas’s Evolution:
  “Hamas is not leaning back, it is morphing. I called it on the piece neo Hamas… morphing into the technocrat government which may allow them… to take over the Palestinian national movement and basically climb up to the diplomatic level and continue the struggle from there.”
  — Yonatan Adiri (12:39)

• On Israeli Public's Relief:
  “My daughter was actually telling me, abba, I'm so happy we can just spend our day here and we don't have to worry about sirens. My daughter's five years old, she's my youngest. For her, it was the toughest mental recovery.”
  — Yonatan Adiri (10:43)

• On Turkey's Ambitions:
  “Israel's success in its war against the Shiite crescent has actually relieved a lot of the constraining factors from Turkey's reach into reclaiming its role in the Middle East. So I think that's what's really happening vis à vis Turkey.”
  — Yonatan Adiri (20:28)

• On Israel’s Strategic Dilemma:
  “You never win a complete victory. Once you win militarily, you're actually exchanging an old set of problems to a new set of problems. And where countries fail… is that they think that the solution to the old problem is going to hold to the new problem.”
  — Yonatan Adiri (25:25)

• On Israel's Political Future:
  “The vision for the next episode could not be a national therapy government. It has to be a vision of the third founding moment of Israel or the third Republic… That's a tough choice to make…”
  — Yonatan Adiri (43:05)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Status Quo in Israel and Gaza: 07:23–11:43
• Hamas’s Evolution (Neo Hamas): 12:20–18:25
• Turkey and Qatar Regional Roles: 19:54–25:25
• U.S. Policy and Regional Balances: 28:04–29:38
• Competing Axes in the Region (IMEC, normalization): 29:48–33:05
• Saudi & UAE's Gaza Conditions: 33:05–35:28
• Gaza Reconstruction and Future Scenarios: 35:28–38:11
• Israel’s Hard Choices & Political Crossroads: 38:11–43:37

Conclusion

The episode offers both a diagnosis and prognosis for Israel’s strategic environment as Hamas shifts from war-fighting to diplomacy, and regional rivals reconfigure their roles. Israel’s next moves—choosing alliances, formulating a new political vision, and strategizing Gaza’s reconstruction—are all entangled with the question of whether it can truly shape rather than be shaped by, the new Middle Eastern order.