Podcast Summary

Podcast: Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
Episode: Hamas Retakes Gaza - with Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib and Joseph Braude
Date: October 20, 2025

Overview

This episode explores the challenges, dilemmas, and evolving power dynamics in Gaza following a recent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Host Dan Senor is joined by Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib (Palestinian analyst, outspoken Hamas critic, and Atlantic Council senior fellow) and Joseph Braude (President of Center for Peace Communications), to unpack the internal and external forces shaping Gaza’s future, the fragility of the ceasefire, the realities on the ground for Gazans, the emerging split within the territory, and shifting attitudes among Gazans and the broader Arab world.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ceasefire Breach and Immediate Violence

• Incident Recap (07:17–09:47):
  • Summary: A Hamas-led attack targeted Abu Shabaab, a militia allied with the IDF against Hamas, leading to deaths among Israeli soldiers and an IDF military response. The incident reflects Hamas’s strategy to eliminate rival factions under cover of plausible deniability.
  • Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib:
    • “This was not necessarily meant to push the boundary of the ceasefire as much as it is Hamas using the time right now to maximally eliminate any threat to its presence and power and authority.” (08:47)
    • Hamas is dragging out the release of deceased Israeli hostages to buy time for consolidating control.
  • Dan Senor: Confirms Abu Shabaab as a rare anti-Hamas militia, highlighting the lack of monopoly over violence.

2. Two Gazas: Emerging Division

• Joseph Braude’s Analysis (09:49, 10:40, repeated at 00:34):
  • There is a de facto split:
    • Behind the “Yellow Line,” with IDF presence, anti-Hamas militias, and some reconstruction—a zone where “the war is over.”
    • In the rest of Gaza, Hamas retains control and violence continues.
    • Trump’s plan allows for ongoing reconstruction even without Hamas disarming or withdrawing.
    • “What's emerging here, Dan, is a story of two Gazas... In those areas you might well say that the war is over. But in the rest of Gaza, fighting will in all likelihood continue because Hamas...will not voluntarily depart.” (00:34; also 10:40)

3. Gazans’ Experience and Attitudes

• Gazans Evaluating Risk (12:51–13:44):
  • Many are debating whether it’s worth entering IDF zones for safety and potential reconstruction.
  • Joseph: “Gazans in increasing numbers vote with their feet and actually seek to participate in that project and become a part of it themselves.” (13:40)
• Relief and Terror (13:53–16:58):
  • Ahmed reports relative relief as bombardment subsides; prices of goods have fallen, indicating previous war profiteering.
  • However, ceasefire periods are the most dangerous for anti-Hamas activists, as Hamas emerges from hiding to exact retribution.
  • “Ironically and sadly and pathetically [my friends] felt safer speaking their minds on social media during the worst of the Israeli bombardment than now during the ceasefire.” – Ahmed (16:37)
  • “The most dangerous time throughout the war to be an anti Hamas Gazan activist has been those periods of ceasefire.” – Joseph (16:58)

4. Popular Support for Hamas

• Current Levels of Support (18:30–20:52):
  • Both guests report minimal current support for Hamas.
  • Ahmed:
    • “They're viewing Hamas's failures and horrors ... as the crowning achievement of failures of the last two decades.” (18:36)
    • Many Gazans now hate and fear Hamas but have no alternative source of security.
    • Preference for some outside security apparatus to separate civilians from Hamas.
  • Joseph adds:
    • Even before October 7th, 70% of Gazans favored disarming and replacing Hamas (citing polls).
    • Hostility to Hamas doesn’t equate to support for Israel; anti-Hamas and anti-Israel views coexist.

5. Prospects for Uprising and Internal Resistance

• Barriers to Uprising (22:04–24:54):
  • Joseph recounts courageous, but limited, resistance movements, including clan-IDF collaborations and protests demanding Hamas’s removal.
  • Hamas uses violence and intimidation to stifle popular movements.
  • Ahmed shares that brutality and public executions leave people terrified of opposing Hamas:
    • “One guy with a gun can show up in an area that has 100 or two or 300 people and not a person can open their mouth.” (23:07)
    • Hamas’s repression and growing sadism evokes ISIS-style terror for ordinary people.

6. International Response and Reconstruction Dilemmas

• Security Vacuum and Historical Parallels (27:07–28:08):
  • Dan draws a parallel to post-2003 Iraq, warning of the dangers of a security vacuum and “learned helplessness” among the population.
  • Ahmed notes every day without intervention cements Hamas’s grip and public despair.
• Role of International Troops & Reconstruction (28:08–36:24):
  • Ahmed and Joseph discuss the logistical and moral challenges of inserting international peacekeepers (especially outsiders willing to confront Hamas directly).
  • Joseph: Possible to build up governance and civil society in the IDF-controlled zones as a model for wider Gaza—if “done right” and meaningfully communicated.
  • Ahmed warns that a Gaza “partition” would be disastrous for displaced civilians, due to property rights, overcrowding, and inhumane conditions. Emphasizes urgent pressure on Qatar and Turkey (backers of Hamas) for real political change.
  • "I do not believe that the solution should be keeping the population concentrated in horrendous conditions." (33:49)

7. Arab World and Pro-Palestinian Reactions

• Arab/Muslim Publics and Governments (36:25–39:15):
  • Ahmed:
    • “Palestinian lives really only matter depending on who's harming them.” (37:06)
    • Many in the Arab/Muslim world or Western pro-Palestinian circles disregard or rationalize Hamas’s violence against fellow Palestinians.
    • Most Arab states (except Qatar, Turkey) are “frustrated” and refuse to fund Gaza’s reconstruction if Hamas remains in power.
  • Joseph:
    • Arab publics increasingly aware of Hamas's atrocities against Palestinians—including the killing of children and released prisoners.
    • "Arab publics are increasingly aware ... and they understand the nihilist, ultimately bestial nature of Hamas terror." (40:04)
    • Some signs of a sea change in Arab public opinion—though global activist and media discourses lag behind.

8. Outlook for Gaza’s Near and Medium Term

• Joseph’s Projection (41:23–42:20):
  • Possible to gradually establish legitimate civil governance led by Gazans, in IDF-held zones, if international support and coordination with clan fighters continues. Hopes this positive example will expand as Hamas loses relevance.
• Ahmed’s Projection (42:23–44:34):
  • Anticipates both an “awakening” and deepening misery:
    • Society realizing Hamas’s destructiveness, with demands for real change.
    • But the “next few years” will be grim, given the trauma, disease, and systemic collapse.
    • Urges not only the end of Hamas, but reforms beyond the Palestinian Authority, which is also widely distrusted.
    • “However, I very much so believe that there will be critical and radical change in Gaza. ... I just see too many people that are done with Hamas ... and the failures of the Palestinian Authority ...and they feel that the Palestinian national project is in shambles.” (43:25)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Hamas is using the time right now to maximally eliminate any threat to its presence and power and authority.”
  – Ahmed Fouad Al Khatib [08:47]

• “What’s emerging here, Dan, is a story of two Gazas ... in those areas, you might well say that the war is over. But in the rest of Gaza, fighting will in all likelihood continue.”
  – Joseph Braude [00:34 and repeated 10:40]

• “Ironically and sadly and pathetically [my friends] felt safer speaking their minds on social media during the worst of the Israeli bombardment than now during the ceasefire.”
  – Ahmed Fouad Al Khatib [16:37]

• “The most dangerous time throughout the war to be an anti Hamas Gazan activist has been those periods of ceasefire.”
  – Joseph Braude [16:58]

• “One guy with a gun can show up in an area that has 100 or two or 300 people and not a person can open their mouth because otherwise you're going to get a bullet to the head.”
  – Ahmed Fouad Al Khatib [23:07]

• “Now is not the time to resign to Hamas’s thuggery and criminality and just say, well, unfortunately they kind of walked back. This is kind of the end of the road. Let's just build a North and a South Korea model.”
  – Ahmed Fouad Al Khatib [36:08]

• “Arab publics are increasingly aware ... and they understand the nihilist, ultimately bestial nature of Hamas terror. And I think there is a kind of a sea change happening in significant portions of the Arab world.”
  – Joseph Braude [40:04]

• “I see both a really dark, grim, near term future that awaits Gaza, but I also in that see numerous threads that will actually create the beginning of a hopeful future of something radically different.”
  – Ahmed Fouad Al Khatib [44:24]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Hamas attack post-ceasefire, plausible deniability: 07:17–09:49
• Division of Gaza & Trump’s plan discussed: 00:34, 10:40–12:41
• Gazan civilians’ dilemma and shifting security landscape: 12:51–16:57
• Ceasefire as increased risk for dissenters: 16:47–18:04
• Current support for Hamas and popular mood: 18:30–20:52
• Internal resistance and barriers to uprising: 22:04–24:54
• International responses and reconstruction obstacles: 27:07–36:24
• Arab world’s shifting attitudes & funding crisis: 36:25–41:04
• Near and medium-term future scenarios for Gaza: 41:23–44:34

Tone and Style

The conversation blends analytical rigor with personal testimony and palpable urgency; it maintains respectful candor, especially about the realities on the ground. Both guests—especially Ahmed—are emotionally invested, alternating between reasoned critique and heartfelt lament as they discuss lost hopes, risks, and the incremental search for a better future.

Conclusion

This episode offers a deeply informed, on-the-ground exploration of the shifting power structures and civil despair in Gaza following the most recent ceasefire. It spotlights the internal terror wrought by Hamas, the hopes for alternative governance, and the complex regional dynamics constraining humanitarian and political progress. Both guests foresee a painful road ahead but hold out hope that Gazans themselves—given security and international backing—can chart a path to a radically better future.