Call Me Back - with Dan Senor

Episode: History’s Case for Trump’s Gaza Plan - with Andrew Roberts
Host/Author: Ark Media
Release Date: February 22, 2025

Introduction

In this pivotal episode of Call Me Back, host Dan Senor delves into the complex and contentious topic of President Trump's proposed Gaza plan with esteemed British historian Andrew Roberts. Released amidst a tumultuous period marked by the release of six Israeli hostages and tragic developments affecting the Bibas family, the conversation navigates historical precedents to evaluate the viability and implications of Trump's strategy for Gaza.

Hostage Developments and Immediate Context

Dan Senor opens the episode by addressing the recent release of six Israeli hostages by Hamas, providing a somber backdrop to the discussion. He outlines the heartbreaking revelations concerning the Bibas family, noting the discovery that the purported body of Shiri Bibas was not actually hers, and the confirmed murders of Kfir and Ariel Bibas. These events underscore the urgency and emotional weight of the ongoing conflict.

“As all of you know, late Thursday, Israel determined that the body of a woman Hamas had released from Gaza was not, in fact, the body of Shiri Bibas or the body of any Israeli hostage.” [00:41]

Historical Parallels to Trump's Gaza Plan

Andrew Roberts brings a wealth of historical knowledge to the conversation, drawing parallels between Trump's Gaza plan and various historical instances where nations engaged in unprovoked attacks, leading to significant consequences. He argues that history provides a cautionary tale about the potential outcomes of such aggressive strategies.

“It tends to be true that the witness of history is almost universal in this, that if you attack your neighbour in an unprovoked sort of surprise attack and then you subsequently lose the war, that happens as a direct response to that.” [00:00]

Roberts cites examples including the Sudeten Germans' population transfers post-World War II, the collapse of Yugoslavia, the Vichy government of France, Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, and the Korean War. Each case illustrates how unprovoked aggression often leads to loss of sovereignty and forced population transfers.

Analyzing the Feasibility of Trump's Plan

The discussion shifts to the practicality of President Trump's proposal for the U.S. to take control of Gaza and facilitate the relocation of its Palestinian population. Roberts expresses skepticism, highlighting the historical difficulty in executing large-scale population transfers and the unwillingness of neighboring Arab states to absorb millions of Palestinians.

“It can't. Nobody wants them. They've turned down endless peace opportunities.” [34:51]

Roberts emphasizes that past population transfers, though often traumatic, eventually led to stability and prosperity for the relocated populations, as seen with the Sudeten Germans in post-war Germany. However, he doubts the current geopolitical climate would allow for a similar outcome in Gaza.

Misconceptions: Ethnic Cleansing vs. Genocide

Roberts addresses the misuse of terms like "ethnic cleansing" and "genocide" in the current discourse surrounding Gaza. He clarifies the definitions, distinguishing genocide's intent to annihilate an entire population from the concept of ethnic cleansing, which involves forced removal or displacement.

“A genocide is something like what happened when Adolf Hitler attempted to wipe out European Jewry between 1939 and 1945, where he killed 50% of European Jews.” [29:54]

Roberts argues that the current situation in Gaza does not meet the criteria for genocide and criticizes the hypocritical narrative that simultaneously characterizes Gaza as both a concentration camp and grounds for proposed displacement.

Historical Examples of Population Transfers and Their Outcomes

Andrew Roberts provides detailed historical accounts to reinforce his arguments. He discusses the population transfers following World War II, the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, the partition of India in 1947, and the Falklands War in 1982. Each example serves to illustrate the long-term consequences of forced relocations and the complexities involved in such endeavors.

“The Sudeten Germans were essentially picked up along with lots of others and moved hundreds of miles to the west to live in what was to be Germany.” [13:16]

Roberts highlights both the immediate hardships and the eventual integration and success of displaced populations, contrasting these with the impracticality of implementing similar measures in the current Gaza scenario.

Challenges and Future Outlook

Senor and Roberts discuss the ongoing challenges in Gaza, particularly the enduring control of Hamas and the fragility of the current ceasefire. Roberts points out that without a definitive defeat of Hamas, true sovereignty and stability in Gaza remain elusive.

“The loss of sovereignty that comes about again and again in history doesn't take place until Hamas has been defeated.” [28:22]

Senor adds that the lack of a clear victor in Gaza differentiates it from historical examples, where unprovoked attacks led to clear and often transformative outcomes.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

The episode concludes with a critical evaluation of Trump's Gaza plan, acknowledging its historical basis while underscoring the significant challenges and improbabilities of its successful implementation. Roberts remains pessimistic about the feasibility of the plan, emphasizing the entrenched interests of regional actors and the improbability of gaining consent for mass relocations.

“No way the Jordanians are taking them. The Hashemite Kingdom wouldn't last two minutes if they suddenly took millions of Palestinians.” [35:30]

Senor thanks Roberts for his invaluable historical insights, highlighting the importance of understanding past precedents to navigate current and future geopolitical strategies.

Notable Quotes

• Andrew Roberts:
  “It tends to be true that the witness of history is almost universal in this, that if you attack your neighbour in an unprovoked sort of surprise attack and then you subsequently lose the war, that happens as a direct response to that.” [00:00]
  “A genocide is something like what happened when Adolf Hitler attempted to wipe out European Jewry between 1939 and 1945, where he killed 50% of European Jews.” [29:54]

• Dan Senor:
  “Wars don't end in the way that the people who start them think they will end.” [22:02]
  “The assumption that this is a ceasefire that's going to hold forever seems to be ludicrous to me, because it won't hold forever.” [28:22]

Final Remarks

This episode of Call Me Back offers a profound exploration of the historical contexts that shape contemporary geopolitical strategies. Through the expertise of Andrew Roberts, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the challenges inherent in implementing population transfer plans like President Trump's Gaza proposal. The discussion underscores the importance of learning from history to inform present-day decisions and highlights the enduring complexities of achieving lasting peace in conflict zones.

For more insights and to explore additional content, visit arkmedia.org.