Podcast Summary

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Episode: How the Deal Came Together, and What Comes Next? – with Ari Shavit
Date: October 16, 2025
Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Ari Shavit

Overview

This episode features journalist and analyst Ari Shavit discussing the historic ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas. Ari Shavit and host Dan Senor dissect the behind-the-scenes diplomatic maneuvering, evolving strategies, the influence of regional and international players (notably the U.S. under President Trump), and speculate on Gaza’s future and the broader Middle East. Through a candid, sometimes skeptical lens, the episode seeks to clarify the remarkable—and still fragile—moment Israel now finds itself in.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Immediate Reaction to the Hostage Release Deal

• Ari Shavit's Emotional Perspective:
  • Ari describes the return of hostages as almost unbelievable, drawing on historical analogies (e.g., "release of prisoners from Dachau" and "V-Day") to convey the gravity and miraculous nature of the event.

    "Something unbelievable and incomprehensible happened. And two years later something unbelievable and incomprehensible happens. So this kind of closure is really, you know, beyond belief." (Ari Shavit, 05:33)

  • He compares the moment to major historical peace milestones, like the Sadat visit and the Oslo Accords, unsure if Israel is witnessing another genuine peace or just a temporary respite.

    "You pray that this will be like the Sadat precedent and not like the Oslo one." (Ari Shavit, 07:24)

2. How the Deal Came Together – The Timeline and Players

• Early Efforts and October 7th as a Turning Point:
  • The original Israeli-Saudi peace deal was derailed by the Hamas attack on October 7th, 2023, which was in part intended to halt normalization between Israel and Arab states (09:16).
• Key Architects:
  • Diplomatic negotiation involved figures such as Ron Dermer, Tony Blair, and MBZ (Mohammed bin Zayed) of the Emirates, as well as input from U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, the Biden administration, and eventually President Trump with his advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner (09:50).
• Navigating Israeli Red Lines:
  • Challenges centered on Israel's refusal to cede Gaza to the Palestinian Authority or accept a two-state solution in explicit terms, while Arab and international actors insisted on such language (10:10).
  • Creative ambiguity was crucial, allowing both sides to claim victories without crossing their stated red lines.

3. The Shift Under President Trump

• Initial Hawkishness:

  • Trump’s early position post-election was extremely hawkish: favoring total destruction of Gaza and possibly large-scale population transfer (13:15).
  • This emboldened Israeli leadership and public to consider maximalist, unrealistic options ("Gaza without Gazans," "Gaza Riviera Plan")—but ultimately led to international isolation and a loss of direction (13:54-16:56).
  • Quote:

    "Suddenly there was the illusion in Israel that there won't be any Palestinians in Gaza or very few Palestinians will live in Gaza. And Israel lost its way." (Ari Shavit, 14:43)

• Course Correction:

  • Mounting international pressure and Trump's own realization that Israel could not defy global opinion triggered a return to negotiations—as did Hamas’ fear under Israeli military pressure (19:49).
  • The "stick" of intensified Israeli operations paired with the "carrot" of a grand diplomatic deal.

4. Hamas’s Calculations

• Hamas’s Reluctance to Close a Deal:
  • Hamas only considered negotiation seriously under maximum duress (22:03). When sensing Israeli weakness or international support, they hardened positions; real progress arose only when they felt existentially threatened.

    "Hamas never wanted a deal. Really. Hamas always agreed to a deal...when they were choked, when they were surrendered." (Ari Shavit, 22:03)

5. The IDF Strike in Qatar and Its Aftermath

• Catalyst for Regional Action:

  • Israel's attack (aimed at Hamas leadership in Doha) backfired, alarming Arab capitals and pushing all sides—including Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt—into urgent action and full cooperation (23:19–24:45, 30:56).

    "The irony is that the most successful Israeli raid ever was the one that failed... Taking the Qatar debacle... and turning that around into a positive process, that's a huge achievement." (Ari Shavit, 24:45)

• Mediators’ Roles:

  • Qatar (most effective, but 'dangerous'), Turkey (partially effective, also 'dangerous'), Egypt (positive but weak) became reluctant but critical mediators (28:26).
  • The absence of Netanyahu and MBZ from the peace summit in Sharm El Sheikh symbolizes the unusual nature of this process and the lingering uncertainties (29:30).

6. The Art (and Risk) of Trump’s Diplomacy

• Momentum Over Substance:

  • The Trump team, led by Kushner and Witkoff, front-loaded the deal by making public commitments before details were finalized, banking on creating unstoppable momentum ("fake it till you make it") (32:15).

    "You pretend there is peace, you force everybody to make a commitment, and then you say the dynamics will be so strong that the details don't matter." (Ari Shavit, 33:07)

• Key Change:

  • Trump demanded all hostages be released up front, with no incremental deals—turning Hamas’s grudging, incremental 'yes-but' into a fait accompli (34:46).

    "Trump did for the first time is he said, 'I'm going to focus on the yes... Israel gets all the hostages back at the front end.'... And when Hamas said yes to that... Trump banked the yes." (Dan Senor, 34:33)

• Unintended but Positive Consequences:

  • The Trump approach brought closure to the hostage crisis, ended the war (at least "as we knew it"), and injected massive, if precarious, momentum toward a new regional process.

7. Israel’s “Two Gaza Solution”

• Division of the Strip:

  • The practical Israeli plan is not full peace or reconciliation, but partition: Israel cedes 47% of Gaza, holds 53%, forecasting a West Germany/East Germany–style outcome where Arab investment flows into the Israeli-held side (37:08).

    "The real Israeli plan is a two Gaza solution. Israel gave back 47% of the Gaza Strip, it keeps 53%... The Israeli assumption is that Hamas will not keep the deal and therefore Israel will not have to withdraw." (Ari Shavit, 37:08)

• Risks and Unknowns:

  • Sabotage by Hamas, resistance from Turkey/Qatar, and doubts about sustained Arab investment leave the outcome highly uncertain.

8. Israel’s Political Future and Regional Prospects

• Likely Domestic Impact:

  • Shavit foresees weakened Israeli extremists (Smotrich, Ben Gvir) and a likely centrist shift to manage the new regional realities, partially crediting Trump for this unforeseen "restoration of Israeli sanity" (40:25).

    "I think there is a high chance that there will be a dramatic weakening of extremist Israel... in an ironic, weird, colorful way, this person is making Israel sane again." (Ari Shavit, 41:44)

• Outlook for Peace:

  • Despite optimism for no return to war/expulsions, and a regional process with a "Palestinian dimension," Shavit remains wary due to international support for a two-state solution and volatile regional actors.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "You pray that this will be like the Sadat precedent and not like the Oslo one." — Ari Shavit (07:24)
• "Trump, with his instincts and his kind of understanding of reality, suddenly realized... Israel cannot fight the world." — Ari Shavit (15:49)
• "The illusion in Israel that there won't be any Palestinians in Gaza... Israel lost its way." — Ari Shavit (14:43)
• "Trump did for the first time is he said, 'I'm going to focus on the yes...'" — Dan Senor (34:33)
• "He took us from the battlefields, from the suffering. He brought back the hostages... But now the plane took off. Who knows where it's going?" — Ari Shavit (39:19)
• "In an ironic, weird, colorful way, this person [Trump] is making Israel sane again. He's actually forcing us to deal with reality." — Ari Shavit (41:44)

Important Segments (Timestamps)

• 05:33 — Ari Shavit’s emotional reaction to the hostage release.
• 09:16 — Background on the derailment of the Israeli-Saudi deal and early diplomatic strategies.
• 13:15 — Trump's initial hardline Gaza policy.
• 16:56 — The effect of the "Gaza Riviera Plan" on regional and Israeli actors.
• 22:03 — Hamas’s approach to negotiations and inflexibility.
• 24:45 — The transformative role of the failed Israeli attack in Doha.
• 30:56 — Mediation dynamics: Egypt, Qatar, Turkey.
• 32:15 — Trump’s playbook: momentum-first diplomacy.
• 34:33 — How Trump's approach forced a full hostage release deal.
• 37:08 — The “two Gaza solution”: Israel’s practical plan for partitioning the Strip.
• 39:19–41:44 — Outlook for the coming year, and analysis of changes in Israeli politics.

Tone & Language

Throughout, Ari Shavit is candid, sometimes skeptical, and often philosophical. He employs colorful analogies and acknowledges both euphoria and grave caution. Dan Senor frames the events with a journalistic, clarifying lens, consistently probing for context and implications, and often summarizing complex threads for listeners.

Conclusion

This episode provides vital insight into how the historic Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal came to be, combining unique on-the-ground reporting and high-level diplomatic analysis. Shavit and Senor do not shy from detailing the risks, ambiguities, and unresolved tensions—not only in the immediate aftermath but for Israel, Gaza, and the region’s future. Both the conversation’s substance and style help listeners grasp the gravity, astonishment, and ongoing uncertainty of the moment.