Podcast Summary: "If Tehran Falls, What Then?"

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Episode Date: January 12, 2026
Guest: Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Host: Dan Senor

Episode Overview

This episode confronts the current wave of mass protests and violent repression in Iran, evaluating whether revolution is imminent and, crucially, what would happen if the Islamic Republic collapsed. Dan Senor welcomes frequent guest Karim Sadjadpour, an eminent Iran analyst, to draw on lessons from other Middle Eastern transitions and explore scenarios for Iran’s future—from nationalist revival to the risks of chaos or military strongman rule.

The episode provides in-depth analysis for policymakers and the public on why this Iranian uprising is distinct and asks, if the regime falls, "Who or what comes next?"

Key Discussion Points

1. Nature and Scale of the Protests (03:41–06:41)

• Karim Sadjadpour describes a dramatic expansion:
  • From thousands to millions protesting nationwide, across cities including Tehran, Tabriz, Shiraz, and Kerman.
  • Protesters now openly demand the end of the Islamic Republic, rallying around former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
• The risks for individual protesters are extremely high:

  “Every person taking to the streets is risking their lives.” (04:19, Sadjadpour)

2. Regime Response: Information Blackout and Repression (05:20–06:41)

• The regime’s crackdown follows a set playbook:
  • Severe throttling of internet and cellular communication ("1% connectivity in Iran").
  • Reports of active massacres, especially in smaller towns with less connectivity.
  • Protesters now labeled as “terrorists”; use of lethal force is explicit.
• Notable insight:

  “They want to inhibit people's ability to communicate … so they can massacre people in the dark.” (05:23, Sadjadpour)

3. The “Revolutionary Prerequisites” in Place (06:41–10:51)

• Drawing on the framework by Jack Goldstone, Sadjadpour lists five essential conditions for regime collapse, all present in Iran:
  1. Fiscal/economic crisis: Hyperinflation, massive currency depreciation.
  2. Divided elites: No security force fissure yet; this is key for the regime’s fate.
  3. Cohesive opposition: Not entirely united, but all seek the regime’s downfall.
  4. Shared narrative: Nationalism replaces the old “death to America/Israel” slogans.

     “Forget about Gaza, forget about Lebanon, think about us.” (09:46, Sadjadpour quoting protest slogan)

  5. Favorable international environment: Iran’s regional strength diminished, Trump administration openly confrontational, oil client China is pressuring Iran.

4. Diminished Rally-Around-the-Flag Effect (10:51–13:04)

• Contrary to common wisdom, external attacks (like Israel–US strikes) no longer unite the nation behind the regime:

  “If you're a late-stage dictatorship and your adventurism gets the country dragged into military humiliation, that oftentimes accelerates your demise.” (12:17, Sadjadpour)

• After the recent “12-Day War,” most Iranians felt only hardship, not unity with the regime.

5. U.S. Threats & The Information War (13:04–14:51)

• President Trump’s warnings (“locked and loaded”) not dismissed in Iran.
• The guest highlights the far greater immediate impact of information access:

  “Even more important than any type of military action ... is to lift this information blanket.” (14:21, Sadjadpour)

• Starlink terminals offer some access, but the regime is actively jamming them.

What Happens If the Tehran Regime Falls?

6. Post-Revolution Uncertainties & Scenarios (14:51–21:50)

• Sadjadpour relays the sobering lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan:

  • U.S. (or external) ability to “shape” post-revolution outcomes is limited.
  • Only 1 in 5 authoritarian regime collapses lead to democracy; most end in new forms of authoritarianism.

  “We would all like to see representative government in Iran ... but more often than not, they lead to another form of authoritarianism.” (17:17, Sadjadpour)

• Key challenges post-collapse:

  • Fate of the Revolutionary Guard (powerful, armed, with a mafia-style economic hold).
  • Risks of chaos, anarchy, and militias surfacing in a power vacuum.

• On exiles returning (as in Iraq):

  “There can be resentment from those who suffered under the dictatorship towards diasporas or exiles who want to parachute in...” (19:13, Sadjadpour)

• Leaders who can channel national unity will matter—expect populist, nationalistic messages (i.e., “Make Iran Great Again”).

• Often, the revolution’s well-known faces do not end up in real power (see Egypt's 2011 revolution).

7. Ethnic Complexity and National Identity (21:51–24:37)

• Only about 50% of Iran is ethnically Persian; major Azeri Turkish, Kurdish, Arab, and Baluchi populations.
• Unlike Iraq, Iran has a far deeper legacy as a nation-state; less likely to fragment along ethnic lines—if leadership is inclusive.
• Most minoritized groups (even Kurds) identify more closely with the broader Iranian nation than with neighboring Arabs or Turks:

  “If you have responsible, kind of inclusive leadership in Iran, that's not going to be inevitable insurgency...” (23:37, Sadjadpour)

8. Dangers of Military Succession and Strongman Rule (24:37–27:47)

• If Supreme Leader Khamenei is killed or deposed, a power struggle could result in the rise of a Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) general or security figure.
• Historical possibility:

  “...emergence of an Iranian strongman who is an alum of the security forces… Could be an Iranian Sisi, could be an Iranian Putin.” (25:46, Sadjadpour)

• However, Iran has a historical (pre-1979) alliance with the U.S., and nationalism could push for partnership with the West:

  “Whoever rules China and Russia … will always see themselves as great powers in competition with the United States. Whereas historically Iran has been a friend to the United States...” (26:27, Sadjadpour)

• Iran’s global pariah status and sanctions would persist unless its ideology changes.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the nature of this uprising:

  “This is a very patriotic, nationalistic uprising that wants to put Iran’s economic and national interests before revolutionary ideology.” (09:18, Sadjadpour)

• On the real impact of outside military pressure:

  "That war, as many argued, didn’t help the Islamic Republic. I think that humiliation has played a factor in the events of today.” (12:45, Sadjadpour)

• On post-revolution risks:

  "One in five authoritarian transitions lead to democracy. More often, they lead to another form of authoritarianism." (16:53, Sadjadpour)

• On the possibility of a future U.S.–Iran partnership:

  “There are few nations in the world with whom the United States has more common interests and less reason to quarrel than Iran.” (27:08, quoting Kissinger, Sadjadpour)

Chronological Breakdown of Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:08–04:00 | Overview of events in Iran, Gaza, U.S. posture, intro to Sadjadpour | | 04:00–06:41 | Scale/nature of protests, regime crackdown | | 06:41–10:51 | “Prerequisites for revolution” analysis | | 10:51–13:04 | Nationalist backlash vs regime, “rally-round-the-flag” dynamics | | 13:04–14:51 | U.S. threats, info blackout, Starlink dilemma | | 14:51–21:51 | Learning from Iraq, Afghanistan, possible post-regime scenarios | | 21:51–24:37 | Iran’s ethnic composition and resistance to fracturing | | 24:37–27:47 | Strongman possibilities post-Khamenei, historical U.S.–Iran ties | | 27:47–30:23 | Reza Pahlavi’s inspirational role | | 30:23–32:28 | Post-revolution nuclear dilemma, cost of program |

Spotlight: Reza Pahlavi’s Role (27:47–30:23)

• Reza Pahlavi is now an inspirational (but not organizational) leader for the opposition.
  • Protesters chant for him even in regime strongholds.
  • He presents himself as a transitionary figure, open to a constitutional monarchy rather than absolute rule.
• Many supporters—especially among the youth born after 1979—see him as a link to Iran’s pre-revolution global standing.

  “He really symbolizes for a lot of young Iranians ... there’s a great deal of nostalgia about life in Iran before the revolution.” (28:45, Sadjadpour)

Future Outlook: Nuclear Program Post-Regime (30:23–32:28)

• The nuclear issue is not top-of-mind for most Iranians due to its heavy economic toll and lack of benefit.
• A new leadership, especially one seeking Western investment and an end to sanctions, would likely deprioritize a military nuclear program.

  “No one can make Iran great again, rebuild Iran, as long as this kind of onerous US sanctions are in place.” (31:47, Sadjadpour)

Conclusion

Karim Sadjadpour delivers a sober but nuanced assessment: all elements for a revolutionary change are present, but profound risks and complexities loom. The episode argues Iran’s national identity and the current opposition’s focus on livelihood over ideology set this uprising apart. Yet history—both regional and global—cautions against assuming democracy will naturally follow the regime’s collapse.

Above all, Sadjadpour asserts that Iran’s future, for better or worse, will be determined by Iranians themselves, not by external intervention.

For further reading:

• “Autumn of the Ayatollahs” (Foreign Affairs, 2025, by Sadjadpour)
• Jack Goldstone’s research on revolutions

Memorable closing:

“America spent how much money in Afghanistan and Iraq... the Taliban is back in power... So I think, again, here it's going to be Iranians in the driver’s seat to shape the future of their country.” (20:58, Sadjadpour)