Podcast Summary: "Israel Iran War 2? - with Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal"
Podcast: Call Me Back, with Dan Senor
Host: Dan Senor
Episode Date: January 1, 2026
Guests: Nadav Eyal (journalist, analyst), Amit Segal (political analyst, journalist)
Main Focus: The current instability in Iran, threats to Israel, and the evolving strategic picture post-2025 wars. Secondary focus on the situation in Gaza and U.S.-Israel relations.
Episode Overview
This episode examines the mounting dilemmas and strategic uncertainties confronting Israel amid resurgent instability in Iran, Iranian missile and nuclear activity, and internal Israeli political shifts. Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal join host Dan Senor to analyze anti-regime protests in Iran, Israel-Iran brinksmanship, the aftermath of the June 12-day war, the U.S. role (including the Trump-Netanyahu summit), and prospects for Gaza after the latest conflict. The tone is deeply analytical, with flashes of irony, concern, and cautious optimism.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Crisis Erupting in Iran
- Widening Protests: Unrest across Iran, starting in Tehran, includes strikes and participation from the bazaari class (historically influential in 1979) (03:59).
- Nadav: “We’re seeing wide protests ... even the bazaari class, the merchants that were essential in the revolution in 1979, some of them joining.”
- Economic Meltdown: Currency at a historic low, government forced to lift subsidies and raise taxes. Viral videos depict tablefuls of cash needed for minor purchases.
- Nadav: “1.4 million rial per dollar ... an entire table of banknotes just to buy one mobile phone.” (05:00)
- Slogans Signal Regime Crisis: Calls for end to the Islamic Republic and death to the dictator. Yet, intelligence sources urge caution about predicting the regime’s fall.
- Nadav: "Until the mullahs are dead, we won't be free" — protester slogan (06:00)
- Regime Tensions: Security crackdowns intensifying; paramilitary Basij on high alert. State closes institutions, struggles to fund both repression and basic services due to war exhaustion and sanctions. (11:00)
2. Iran Accelerates Missile Program Amid Nuclear Pause
- Weapons Shift: Despite pausing nuclear work, Iran has accelerated its ballistic missile program, buying thousands from China and restoring military bases (07:22, 08:45).
- Amit: “The plans of Iran to acquire thousands of ballistic missiles threatened to become an existential threat as well ... the damage would be almost as equal to the damage of a single nuclear bomb.” (08:05)
- US-Israel “Daylight” Narrowing: Trump’s statements signal possible support for action against Iran’s conventional missile program, not just nuclear sites—a first (09:00).
- Amit: “The fact that President Trump said it means something really important ... the Iranian Supreme Leader is listening very, very carefully.”
3. Risk of War and Strategic Calculus
- War Fatigue and Deterrence: Damage from the “12-Day War” in June is fresh. Israel doesn’t see a repeat war cycle as sustainable; risk calculus dominates decision-making (13:19).
- Amit: “There is no logic behind Israel taking care of Iran like it takes care of Hezbollah or Hamas ... you cannot allow yourself ... another round of fighting every six or eight months.” (13:48)
- Domestic Politics & Nationalism: While election cycles loom in Israel, leaders are cautious of being manipulated by internal considerations. All agree the regime’s potential collapse in Iran must not be artificially rushed from outside; external pressure risks a nationalist “rally around the flag” effect in Iran (16:23-17:35).
- Amit: “If Netanyahu is cynically seeking for a pre-campaign achievement, I don’t think he will find it in Iran.” (17:34)
4. Miscalculation and Preemptive Dangers
- Hair-trigger Tensions: Both Israel and Iran are primed for preemptive action; risk of miscalculation is acute.
- Human Dimension: Emphasis on the courage of Iranian protestors, calling for international moral—not material—support.
- Nadav: “Every time I see these demonstrations, I’m absolutely astounded by how brave they are ... risking their lives.” (20:59)
5. US Policy and the Trump-Netanyahu Summit
- Meeting Outcomes: Trump reaffirms commitment to Israeli security, signals conditional support for strikes on Iran, and reiterates the Hamas “hell to pay” threat (22:30-25:00).
- Nadav: “President Trump made sure that everybody understands that his position is that Hamas needs to disarm or they’ll have hell to pay.” (24:00)
- Consistency on Hamas: Trump’s messaging on dismantling Hamas is “boringly consistent.” (26:50)
- Amit: “When it comes to Gaza and to Israel, he’s boringly consistent: Hamas must be dismantled, and if not, he would leash hell upon it.” (26:50)
6. The Gaza Question – Stalemate and No Good Options
- Disarmament Dilemma:
- Full Hamas surrender is unlikely.
- International force to fight Hamas—a non-starter.
- IDF’s full occupation—undesirable. The current situation: partial IDF control, Hamas substantially isolated but not eradicated (28:00–31:40).
- Amit: “At the end of the day, the IDF must enter Gaza in order to take care of Hamas. And the other option is immigration ... or you establish ... new Rafah ... creating an arbitrage gap between Gazans who live in the freed East Gaza ... and those miserable Gazans live in West Gaza.” (30:37)
- Fourth Option (“Disappeared from the Menu”): Trump and US warming to Palestinian Authority (PA) or PA-affiliated leaders in Gaza as a stabilization force; skepticism remains due to PA’s corruption and unpopularity (31:40–34:00).
- Nadav: “The Palestinian Authority is the only militia ... that you can have in the Gaza Strip that will actually, to some extent, threaten Hamas that isn’t the IDF.”
7. Predictions and Reflections
- Realistic Outlook: No magic solution for Gaza. The U.S. may roll out new plans soon, but only options are Hamas, Fatah/PA, or ongoing Israeli occupation.
- Nadav: “There are three options: One, Hamas; second, Fatah/PA; and the third is the IDF in a military occupation. These are the options, ministers, now you take your pick.” (35:30)
8. Closing Thoughts and Optimism
- Amit: Ending on an optimistic assessment: Israel’s security situation has improved significantly since a year ago, with the hostage crisis nearly resolved and Iran’s nuclear program set back (37:52).
- Amit: “A year ago ... we were in the middle of a war with Hamas in Gaza ... Iran still had its nuclear program functioning and making rapid progress. So a year after, I think the situation of Israel, and consequently the Middle East, has dramatically improved.” (37:52)
- Economic Recovery: Tel Aviv Stock Exchange up significantly over the year, symbolic of stability returning.
Memorable Quotes & Timestamps
- On Iranian Protests:
- On Missile Threat:
- “The plans of Iran to acquire thousands of ballistic missiles threatened to become an existential threat ... the damage would be almost as equal to the damage of a single nuclear bomb.” – Amit (08:05)
- On US Policy Shift:
- “The fact that President Trump said it means something really important ... the Iranian Supreme Leader is listening very, very carefully.” – Amit (09:00)
- On Strategic Risks:
- “First worry is miscalculation ... If Iran senses that Israel might attack, it wants to preempt that. If Israel thinks that Iran is going to do that, we want to preempt that." – Nadav (20:00)
- On the Protests’ Moral Courage:
- “I find this absolutely inspiring that people in Iran ... are fighting for their freedom and for their liberty.” – Nadav (21:00)
- On Gaza Stalemate:
- On Progress Since Last Year:
- “A year ago ... we were in the middle of a war with Hamas in Gaza ... Iran still had its nuclear program functioning ... I think the situation of Israel ... has dramatically improved.” – Amit (37:52)
Important Segments & Timestamps
- [03:59] — Nadav explains the depth and social makeup of Iran’s protests
- [07:22] — Amit recounts the strategic debate on Israel’s missile threat and US policy
- [11:00] — Nadav unpacks the regime’s internal crisis and security exhaustion
- [13:48] — Amit discusses Israel’s vulnerability and limits of “war as routine” policy
- [17:34] — Panel explores risk, politics, and election cycle implications for Israeli decisions
- [20:00] — Nadav details risk of miscalculation and escalating Israeli-Iranian tensions
- [24:00] — Nadav and Amit analyze outcomes of Trump-Netanyahu meeting
- [26:50] — Amit on the limits and repetition of US policy toward Gaza and Hamas
- [30:37] — Amit lays out the sobering menu of Gaza “options”
- [31:45] — Nadav (with Amit) speculate on potential role for the Palestinian Authority
- [35:30] — Nadav summarizes the basic Gaza scenarios from the Israeli cabinet perspective
- [37:52] — Amit closes with an optimistic snapshot of Israel’s position a year on
Tone & Notable Moments
The discussion is candid, occasionally wry, but fundamentally serious—rooted in intelligence briefings, first-hand sources, and on-the-ground insights. Both guests stress the gravity and unpredictability of the moment, reveal deep skepticism regarding “easy” solutions, and insist on honoring the courage of ordinary Iranians fighting for change. Closing notes blend realism with cautious hope, particularly about Gaza and the progress made against existential threats.
For Further Insights
- Newsletters Recommended: “It’s Noon in Israel” (Amit Segal) and “Between Us” (Nadav Eyal) for rich, real-time analysis on Middle East developments.
- Next Steps: The guests expect new U.S. policy initiatives for Gaza and Iran in the coming weeks, suggesting a follow-up episode is in order as more unfolds in 2026.