ISRAEL VOTES: A Political Shakeup in Israel? - with Amit Segal and Nadav Eyal

Summary

Podcast Summary – Call Me Back with Dan Senor

Episode: ISRAEL VOTES: A Political Shakeup in Israel?
Guests: Amit Segal, Nadav Eyal
Date: April 30, 2026

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Overview

This episode dives into Israel's rapidly shifting political landscape in the run-up to the anticipated October 2026 elections. Host Dan Senor speaks with top Israeli political commentators Amit Segal and Nadav Eyal about major developments—including the surprise alliance between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid forming the "Bayachad" ("Together") party, the rise of Gadi Eisenkot, and what all this means for Benjamin Netanyahu’s dominance. The conversation mixes sharp analysis, behind-the-scenes insights, and candid commentary, offering a primer and in-depth debrief for a global audience.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bennett-Lapid Alliance: Strategic or Symbolic?

[03:03–06:52]

• Announcement Recap: On April 29, Bennett and Lapid unexpectedly announced a new alliance and joint party—Bayachad (“Together”)—ahead of the yet-unannounced general elections.
• Analysis:
  • This move was long anticipated given their history of cooperation, but the timing was surprising.
  • Some see this as a tactical step: “The mission is to actually qualify from the semifinals within the opposition to the finals against Netanyahu.” (Amit Segal, 06:39)
• Skepticism on Impact: Polls show “one plus one equals less than two,” with the new alliance failing to electrify the electorate and Gadi Eisenkot steadily gaining support.

Notable Quote:

• “There was nothing there that either surprised the public or changed in a meaningful way the election's results.” — Nadav Eyal [04:31]

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2. Gadi Eisenkot: Rising Star and Wild Card

[07:36–09:34, 34:22–40:29]

• Background: Eisenkot, a former IDF chief of staff and recently bereaved father and uncle from the Gaza war, commands broad respect and popularity in Israeli society.
• Advantage: He currently appeals to a growing centrist and soft-right electorate, weakening both Bennett and Lapid’s positions.
• Potential Liability: His tenure as chief of staff overlapped with key decisions (e.g., Gaza policy, IDF restructuring) that led to the intelligence failures of October 7—potential “scrutiny” issues that haven’t fully surfaced yet.

Notable Quotes:

• “All it takes for Gadi Eisenkot is to move five seats from Bennett to his side, which is…not mission impossible.” — Amit Segal [08:12]
• “He is widely seen…as the most popular person right now in the political sphere, the most consensual person right now.” – Nadav Eyal [34:32]

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3. Primer: Who Are Bennett and Lapid?

[12:06–19:30]

• Lapid:
  • Former media superstar and anchor, akin to “Jake Tapper forming a party” ([12:58] Nadav Eyal).
  • Seen as the centrist everyman, yet often snubbed by Israel’s cultural elite.
  • Son of Tommy Lapid, former deputy PM and journalist.
• Bennett:
  • Tech entrepreneur turned politician from the right, with a high-profile military background (special forces).
  • Former head of the Yesha Council, but never lived in a settlement; political outsider who rose quickly, often facing suspicion from traditional right-wing base.
  • His career is marked by shifting ideological alliances and technocratic, pragmatic approaches.

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4. The New "Bayachad" Party: Right, Left, or Neither?

[19:30–22:00]

• Composition:
  • Despite Bennett’s right-wing roots, the new party is largely made up of technocrats from the center-left; only Bennett himself is religious.
  • Stance on contentious issues (judicial reform, religion-state relations, etc.) puts them at odds with their presumed right-wing base.
• Strategic Question:
  • Can Bennett still sell himself as a right-wing leader after so many ideological pivots and after partnering fully with center-left Lapid?

Notable Quote:

• “So when it comes to this very subtle thing of identity, I think Bennett is no longer part of the sentiment of the right wing.” — Amit Segal [21:34]

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5. Bennett’s Theory of Victory

[22:00–24:59]

• Approach:
  • Needs to unite the entire opposition bloc (“if the bloc is not going to unite around me...we're going to lose the elections” — Nadav Eyal [22:30]).
  • Plans to first secure centrist support (via Lapid), then “break as hard as he can to the right” (i.e., court dissatisfied Likud voters, especially in urban centers like Rishon Litzion).
• Voter Bloc Dynamics:
  • Likud’s hold on secular/traditional, urban voters has weakened, especially post-October 7 and due to the far-right/ultra-Orthodox coalition.

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6. Polls, Public Mood, and Election Themes

[26:34–31:03]

• Poll Findings:
  • Israelis overwhelmingly feel Israel “has not won the war” (57% say no).
  • Public fatigue—more than outright loss or victory—is the dominant mood and a critical risk for incumbents.
• Historical Parallels:
  • Drawn to the COVID-19 period: Political punishment for ongoing crises, not just outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• “The number one factor in this election is the sentiment in the Israeli public of fatigue.” — Amit Segal [27:04]

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7. Structural Weakness of the Anti-Netanyahu Bloc

[31:03–33:11]

• Issue:
  • Anti-Netanyahu voters are more likely to defect to his camp than the reverse due to bloc loyalty (especially among the ultra-Orthodox and religious right).
• Coalition Math:
  • Even if anti-Bibi parties win, squeezing out a majority without Arab party support is very difficult. Bennett claims he won’t rely on Arab parties, but skeptics abound.

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8. Minor Players and Potential Spoilers

[42:43–45:11]

• Avigdor Lieberman:
  • Once a Netanyahu ally, now his nemesis, Lieberman could play the kingmaker. Both guests are skeptical about his real PM prospects but flag his bargaining strength: “He's going to ‘benetize’ Bennett,” threatening coalition defection for leverage.
• Ongoing Bloc Fractures:
  • Israeli politics isn’t necessarily “moving left,” but more former Netanyahu allies refuse to work with him, causing continual bloc realignments.

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9. What’s Next for Netanyahu?

[45:11–47:17]

• Scenarios:
  • Despite trailing in every poll, Netanyahu’s durability and institutional advantages make him a formidable opponent.
  • Speculation about potential plea deals, health rumors, and even pivoting to run for president. Nothing is ruled out in “the most dramatic election cycle in Israel’s history.”

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Memorable Moments and Humor

• On Israeli politics as a soap opera:

  • “It reminds me, the soap opera The Bold and the Beautiful, we're in season 17. Those who married and divorced and then remarry again.” — Amit Segal [06:17]

• Amit Segal’s “conspiracy theory” about Lieberman:

  • “He’s going to benetize Bennett… If you don’t let me be the Prime Minister first, I might consider to join forces with Netanyahu.” [44:54]

• Meta moment: Eisenkot using a sound bite from this podcast in his own campaign, which the hosts find amusing. [37:52]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |--------------|----------------------------------------------| | 03:03–06:52 | Bennett-Lapid Alliance: What Does It Mean? | | 07:36–09:34 | Gadi Eisenkot’s Rise | | 12:06–19:30 | Primer on Bennett & Lapid | | 19:30–22:00 | The Party List: Ideology & Strategy | | 22:00–24:59 | Bennett’s Theory of the Race | | 26:34–31:03 | Polling Data & Public Sentiment | | 31:03–33:11 | Structural Weakness: Anti-Netanyahu Bloc | | 34:22–40:29 | Eisenkot’s Biography & Vulnerabilities | | 42:43–45:11 | Lieberman: Kingmaker or Spoiler? | | 45:11–47:17 | Netanyahu’s Future & Campaign Scenarios |

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Concluding Thoughts

The Israeli political scene faces unprecedented volatility. While alliances shift and new faces surge, structural factors, voter fatigue, and Netanyahu’s staying power make straightforward predictions treacherous. Every guest agrees: “Game on,” and anything can happen before the ballots are cast.

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Recommended for:
Listeners seeking a nuanced, inside look at Israel’s political maneuvering, personalities, and what’s at stake in one of the most consequential, unpredictable elections in Israel’s history.

Transcript

[Gabe Silverstein]

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[Dan Senor]

You are listening to an art media podcast.

[Amit Segal]

Bennett and Lapid joined politics on the Same Day in 2013. Bennett began his career in the far right, Lapid in the what I call the far center. And gradually they became very similar. I think from a tactical perspective it made a lot of sense because the mission is to actually from the semifinals within the opposition to the finals against Netanyahu. So Bennett hopes to actually leave this question behind him. However, I'm not sure it seals the deal. Why? Because Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff, the most popular figure in Israeli politics, as we see today, his numbers are skyrocketing.

[Nadav El]

His theory of the race is first of all, I need the entire block to unite around me. If the bloc is not going to unite around me and we're going to run with every party in the bloc, Lieberman for instance, and Eisenkot, running as though they might be the prime minister, then we're going to lose the elections. He right now is securing his centrist flank, which is Yair Lapid, and he's trying to force Eisenkurt to join him and then he's going to break as hard as he can to the right. Foreign.

[Dan Senor]

It's 7:30am on Wednesday, April 29 here in New York City. It is 2:30pm on Wednesday, April the 29th, in Israel. On Sunday, without any prior warning, Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced they're joining forces, launching a new unified party called Bayachat, which means together. The move comes months ahead of Israel's expected October elections, although they have not been formally declared yet. And it immediately raises more questions than answers. What are they actually trying to accomplish? Does this strengthen the anti Netanyahu block or unintentionally weaken it? And what does it mean for Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the other major center left party and is being pressured by Bennett to join him and Lapid, but he has not yet done so. This is already shaping up to be one of the most dramatic election cycles in Israel's history. And the election hasn't even been called yet. And one the Jewish diaspora no doubt will be watching closely. As a side note, if you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel. There's a link in the show notes, or you can just search for Call me back podcast on YouTube with me today to dive into the fascinating ups and downs of Israeli politics. Our ARC media contributors, Nadavael and Amit Segal. Gentlemen, it's game on for you guys.

[Amit Segal]

Nadav is a serious guy. He is into geostrategic issues.

[Dan Senor]

Yeah, exactly.

[Amit Segal]

For me, just the smell of a fresh new pole or a new crispy spin is what gives me a reason to wake up in the morning.

[Dan Senor]

Yeah. George Will famously called this the silly season. We're in the silly season.

[Amit Segal]

Absolutely.

[Nadav El]

We're actually at the garbage time. But let's talk about this.

[Dan Senor]

Okay, so look, I've done this enough times with you guys that no matter what I ask you up front, you're gonna immediately give me your hot take take on the latest political development. So let's just clear the deck and then we'll get into the substance and analysis. What are your. Each of you, what are your first takes from Bennett and Lapid's announcement? Nadav, I'll start with you.

[Nadav El]

So there's a drama, of course, involved, and we in the media, we're selling this as a drama. It's the first step of this election, but there was nothing there that either surprised the public or changed in a meaningful way the election's results. Bennett and Lapid have been in some sort of partnership or an alliance for many years. It was absolutely clear they're going to be in the next government together, if indeed they will form a government. Bennett was the Prime Minister. Lapid was the architect of making him Prime Minister. Then Bennett stepped out of the Prime Minister's office in order to have Lapid as a Prime Minister.

[Dan Senor]

Right.

[Nadav El]

So this is one thing that we anticipated is going to happen. Now, why is it important? It's important because to a certain extent, it makes everything tick in a higher pace right now. We expected this, but I'm not sure about timing in which they actually did that. If indeed Likud voters are going to head back to the Likud, this might have pushed them earlier back to the Likud. Although I Think that would have happened anyway. It's interesting also as to Bennett. Does this indeed make Bennett the prime contender against Netanyahu? Does this seal the deal for him? This is what he wanted to seal the deal. That there's one candidate that's going to run against Netanyahu and that's Bennett. And just because he got this Inj Lapid joining him, it's a done deal. And now it's only Bennett against Netanyahu. Or maybe, maybe. And I'm just opening this window, I'll be happy to hear what Amit thinks about that. Maybe Eisenkop now can be a true opposition to the Bennett Lapid bloc. And maybe we'll continue to see Eisencourt growing stronger. And then it becomes really interesting.

[Amit Segal]

Amit, it reminds me, the soap opera the Bold and the Beautiful were in season 17. I mean, those who married and divorced and then remarry again.

[Nadav El]

Did you manage to get me to season 17 of the Bold and the Beautiful? This is a breaking news kind of thing, because I read your substack this morning and I didn't see that, like the soap opera kind of reviews that.

[Amit Segal]

No, this is. Those are different audiences here. You know, we speak to each audience in their language. So in the Bold and Beautiful, it's give or take the same why Bennett and Lapid joined politics on the Same Day in 2013, some 13 years ago, and eight election campaigns. It's more than Rabin and Peres, the number of elections that Rabin and Peres led the Labour Party, just to give a comparison, Bennett began his career in the far right, Lapid in the. What I call the far center. And gradually they became very similar. So it was quite natural. I agree with Nadav. I think from a tactical perspective, it made a lot of sense because the mission is to actually qualify from the semifinals within the opposition to the finals against Netanyahu. So Bennett hopes to actually leave this question behind him. However, as Nadav has just hinted, I'm not sure it seals the deal. Why? Because Gadi Eisenkot, the former IDF chief of staff, the most popular figure in Israeli politics, as we see today, his numbers are skyrocketing. He's more attractive to the right wing than Bennett, who was the former CEO of the Yesha Council.

[Dan Senor]

The Yesha Council. It was the settlers political council in Judea and Samaria.

[Amit Segal]

Exactly.

[Dan Senor]

And that's what he was doing before he ran for. First ran for national politics.

[Amit Segal]

Exactly. And Bennett and Lapid, since they are from season 17, it was very interesting. I don't Think it creates shocks of enthusiasm, to say the least. You saw in the polls the day after that, in each and every poll, the one plus one equals less than two. And Gadi Eisencot is continuing to gain political ground a seat a week on average, which is a lot. He's now scoring around 15 seats out of 120. It might not seem a lot to Americans because you are in the art of outright majority in the electoral college, but in Israel it's a lot.

[Nadav El]

One should say that Bennett managed to be prime minister with six seats.

[Amit Segal]

So it gives Eisencot two and a half, 10 years in the Prime Minister's office according to this map. What I'm trying to say is since it's a zero sum game, all it takes for gaddy Eisencourt is to move five seats from Bennett to his side, which is not very. It's difficult, but it's not mission impossible. And explain why we are six months prior to the election. In the United States you are already on the campaign trail at this stage. However, in Israel, usually elections are called three, three and a half months prior to the election day, which means we are years from the election day. And Bennett has already fired almost everything he got. He announced three major names. He joined forces with Lapid, while Gadi Eisenkot hasn't even started yet.

[Dan Senor]

Well, but just hold on. But can I just pause there? I mean, I hear you on the one hand. On the other hand, Bennett is starting with like a nascent political party. He had virtually no political infrastructure. So don't you think there was pressure on him to make moves here? He's not sitting in the Knesset.

[Amit Segal]

Absolutely.

[Dan Senor]

He has nothing. So he had to.

[Amit Segal]

He had to. No, he had to. It was a must for him.

[Dan Senor]

Right.

[Amit Segal]

I'll put it differently. I'm one of those who think, who believe that had Bennett not done that, he would finish the election with a single digit number of seats at the Knesset, not nearly close to the Prime Minister's office. He has a very bad experience in running campaigns. He has no political base. He came from the far right and now he tries to attract not the far left, but the Israeli center left. And Eisenhut is a very popular guy, so it's way more natural for him. So it was a necessity for Bennett. However, it's not a perfect move.

[Nadav El]

I think it's important to understand that what Lapid brings to this, beyond his support, he has some sort of an entrenched support. Lapid, he voters that have been with him for many years, he managed to do that. He managed to be stable to some extent. So he goes up and down in different elections. But there seems to be a real party there. Yeshatid, his party is a real party. It has an infrastructure, it has a think tank, it operates as a governing party. The only problem there for Lapid is that election after election, it seems that he appeals to less parts of the public, specifically of the traditional center interest public, that is the public that you can actually overturn an election with. And because of that, this sort of combination between Bennett, who's charismatic contender and he comes from the right and the infrastructure of Yeshatid and Yair Lapid, who's the chairman of the opposition formerly, right now, this thing was very much needed. But Bennett decided to begin with Eisenkut. This is how we came to this point. He was courting Eisenkut for months, trying to convince him, pressure him, spin against him, begin the 8 o' clock news at channel 12 with his messaging that now is the time to join. Everything failed. And Eisenkot said, yeah, I might join you, but why now? Let's see what happens. And because he's playing so cool, then Bennett needed to go first to Lapid. He didn't want to go first for Lapid because Lapid is turning left and this endangers his right wing flank.

[Dan Senor]

Okay, I want to jump into just a primer on Bennett and Lapid because I know a number of our listeners were throwing their names around and operating like everyone knows as much about them as we do. So why don't I start with you, Amit? Can you just give us like tell us a little more about who each of these men are, how they came of age in politics and then we'll jump into what they're the nature of their relationship with one another.

[Amit Segal]

So Yah Lapid was the golden boy of Israeli entertainment or infotainment. He was absolutely the most popular kalan in the Israeli press. He succeeded in each and everything that he has done.

[Dan Senor]

So for our listeners, think of him as a very prominent household name in the US that is hosting a television show, an anchor, big media personality, intersection of kind of news and popular culture and just an ever media presence.

[Nadav El]

Can I give you an example? I'll metaphor this. Okay. Lapid is like Jake Tapper. So imagine Jake Tapper forming a party or joining. And I'm saying this because Jake Tapper has his novels too, right? So it's not only about him being on cnn, but it's likely more than that. Lapid was defining in his texts and the columns that he was writing to Yediota Khono, to my newspaper, and before that to Ma'. Are. He was defining a very centrist mood in Israel of people who go and serve in the army but complain about the government's bureaucracy, who want to find the middle way. So one of the ultimate testaments to his power was that people would take a clip of his newspaper column and put it on the refrigerator with a magnet on what does it mean to be an Israeli? This was a cliche of a Yar Lapid column, but it was more than a cliche. And Amit is absolutely right that he succeeded in everything that he did. The point is that the Israeli elite and lefty side never liked Lapid. They always saw him as punching to the lowest denominator, trying to be cool while he's really not being a populist. And this is one of the reasons that he became such a prominent political figure that he was managing to control the center. But this eroded if it's not perfect

[Amit Segal]

enough for the Israeli voter. He was the son of Tomilapid, which was one of the most controversial yet popular journalists in the generation before, and the deputy prime minister. And on his just by his deathbed, Yair Lapid heard from his father, I reached the deputy prime ministership, but you, Yair, are going to be the prime Minister of Israel. And then he died. Five years later, Yair Lapid forms his own party, Yashatid, which is more user friendly than his father's party with a rabbi in the second place and, you know, more women, more Sephardic candidates. And he is the number one story of the 2013 election. And the number two story was Naftali Bennett.

[Dan Senor]

And just if listeners want to learn more about Yair Lapid, he actually wrote what I thought was a very interesting book called Memories After My the Story of My Father, Joseph Tommy Lapid. So he wrote a biography of his father. It's almost like in his father's voice after his father's passing. It's sort of a, let's just say, very original way to write a book about someone's life, but it is actually quite good. Okay, so now tell us about Naftali Bennett.

[Amit Segal]

Okay. Naftali Bennett was the CEO of the ASHA Council. He began his career in the high tech industry after serving in a commander unit in the army named Maglan. After the Second Lebanon War, which was perceived as a failure, he decided to join politics.

[Dan Senor]

But he fought in the Second Lebanon War and he's.

[Amit Segal]

Yes, as a reservist he's regarded as

[Dan Senor]

having a very impressive military career.

[Amit Segal]

Absolutely in the same part of his military service was in the Matkal unit.

[Dan Senor]

Yeah, Seyed Matkal served Nkal, where Ehud

[Amit Segal]

Barak and Benjamin Netanyahu served as well. So he joins the Yesha Council. He never lived in a settlement. The veteran settlers suspected him because they felt the scent of a political ambition. So after a year and a half, they fired him. And then he decided to join politics. He was the Benjamin Netanyahu's chief of staff in the opposition, but was fired due to accusations of leaking information to the leftist media. I'm not sure if it was accurate or not. However, that was the reason why Naftali Bennett was not allowed into Likud. Just imagine what would have happened had Sarah and Bibi would allow Bennett to run for number 28 seat as the representative of Haifa in the north. How Israeli political history would have changed. However, he decided to join a very old boring National Orthodox party and he made it a huge story in the election from another tentacle of the Likud. He actually tried to make it independent and it failed because all the rabbis, all the, you know, the rank and file activists resisted it. They were used to be, you know, the education minister or to have a, you know, marginal party in the coalition. It was a mixture between his superiority complex and their inferiority complex. So he left them and he tried his best in a new party. And to cut a long story short, after a few campaigns, he decided to take the six seats and to be a prime minister in a center left coalition rather than his original right wing bloc.

[Dan Senor]

And the relationship between the two of these guys, between Bennett and Lapid?

[Nadav El]

Oh, this is the story, the relationship, as Amit mentioned earlier, because they came into politics twice, just that we'll understand the relationship. Bennett was leading a right wing party, but it was Lapid that insisted that he joined the Netanyahu government. Netanyahu wanted to cut Bennett out of the government. So Netanyahu wanted back in 2013 to cut Bennett, his ally, from the government. And then Lapid, who came from the center left, said, oh no, I'm not joining the government if you're not bringing Bennett with us.

[Dan Senor]

And why was it so important to Lapid to have Bennett join that government?

[Nadav El]

Over a decade ago they called it Brita Achim, the brothers pact. And it goes from the expression dan, that you know very well from Hebrew, actually also from English, but it carries a different meaning, like brother, which you use usually in the army. It's a generational thing. What they have in between them, these two men, is that they come from sort of the same generation, although Lapid is slightly older than Bennett, and they came from a different generation of Israelis and Israeli politics. It's true that Lapid didn't go to a combat unit. He served at the IDF newspaper basically most of the time. But Bennett did go to a combat unit. And there is a language there that is a language of different generation to the generation of Netanyahu. So they understand each other. Bennett is a former CEO of a tech company. This is the most important part of his cv, I think. He speaks the tech language. And he's extremely pragmat. He's not pragmatic on Eretz Yisrael or he has not proven to be pragmatic on this issue, although we have hopes as to that. But as to every other issue, he's been extremely pragmatic. And that's also true, by the way, too, Yair Lapid.

[Dan Senor]

Okay, let me stay on this for one moment, because if I look at the way Bennett is establishing his list right now, his party right now, he appears to be the most right wing member of the party he's building. His party seems to be so far of the other potential candidates for Knesset that he's populating his party with, they appear to be very technocratic, kind of experienced, kind of managerial executive types, not ideological figures. Is that a fair characterization, Amit?

[Amit Segal]

Yes. And Bennett's career began like in the. And I don't know if it was the same slogan in the States for Fuseti, saying all the taste without the calories. So the idea was we are exactly the same as Netanyahu when it comes to, you know, Palestinian statehood. Settlements were even more to the right, but we are fresh, we are young, we are religious, and we don't have all those, you know, grassroots activists looking for jobs. We're cleaner nowadays. It's not the same. It's no longer the same. In Naftali Bennett's party, the prophet of representation for the national Orthodox community, there isn't a single religious guy, save Bennett himself. All the list members that have been announced so far are from the center left, with no exception, all of them were against the judicial reform. All the former Knesset members who served alongside Bennett even in the last party through which he became a prime minister are no longer with him, including his longtime political partner, Ayed Shahkaid, which is more ideological. So what's I'm trying to say is the question is what a right wing is today. When we speak English, we usually Describe right and left in Israel as, you know, the Palestinian question, wars, hostage deals, etc. This is no longer the case in my opinion. When it comes to the judicial reform, Bennett explicitly speaks against it. When it comes to a church and state or synagogue and state, like in Israel, Bennett spoke for same sex marriage in Israel. One of the first leaders to speak about it, save maybe Yair Lapid. So when it comes to this very subtle thing of identity, I think Bennett is no longer part of the sentiment of the right wing. The main question is, is he still attractive after he joined forces with Lapid and adapted those new positions to those 2 to 5% of soft right wings who are going to decide the election? This is the main question.

[Dan Senor]

Yeah. So, Nadav, I want you to respond to that. What is Bennett's theory of the race then? Like how in his mind, how is uniting with Lapid in service of whatever his theory of the race is?

[Nadav El]

Bennett seems himself as a right winger who can speak with the right wing. He has not ejected himself from that position. He doesn't think about himself as only a centrist leader. So while Amit's analysis could be true, and we will need to see, Bennett still positions himself as the only person who can bring right wing voters. And by the way, this is his main, main claim to fame compared with Eisenkurt. His theory of the race is as such, first of all, I need the entire bloc to unite around me. If the bloc is not going to unite around me, and we're going to run with every party in the bloc, Lieberman, for instance, which we didn't mention, Viktor Lieberman and Eisencourt running as though they might be the Prime Minister, then we're going to lose the elections. Netanyahu's strength is by uniting the bloc. I need to be the person in charge. And this could not be a situation in which I'm running at the head of a party of six seats or seven seats or 10 seats at the polls like it was last time. It needs to be absolutely clear that everybody's with me. Then when we do that, I am going to break to the right. So he's not saying what I'm saying on the record, of course, but this is the theory of the race. He right now is securing his centrist flank, which is Yair Lapid, and he's trying to basically force Eisenkot to join him. And then he's going to break, I think, as hard as he can to the right because he understands that without bringing those votes or at least securing The Likud voters. We call these Likud voters the Rishon Litzion voters. Rishon Litzion is a city to the south of Tel Aviv. It's a very big city in Israel. I think it's the fourth largest city in the country, or the fifth largest city in the country. And Rishon Litzion is a classic kind of just middle of the road, income, education. And the Likud had a strong performance there over the years. Now it's these Likud vouchers that the Likud lost. By the way, it started losing them before October 7th. It's not October 7th. It started losing them because of the combination of the far right and ultra Orthodox government and secular or traditionalist Likud voters didn't like that. So Netanyahu lost urban Likud voters, which we demonstrate through the city of Richelieu. But in general that's true. He lost the urban Likud voters that are secular or traditionalist or have a kippah to their head, but they will go to see a soccer game, a football game in the Shabbat. So these kind of people that do have a kiddush, but also see channel 12 on the TV.

[Dan Senor]

Channel 12, meaning a non ideological news channel, like a mainstream news channel, my channel, Amit's channel. Yeah, yeah.

[Nadav El]

And these voters are lost to the Likud right now. And Bennett needs to secure them. Right now he has them, but he needs both to secure them and he needs for them to have an emotional attachment to him. And the only way he can do that is by seeming strong. This is really important in Israeli politics. If they feel that he is susceptible to pressure, fragile, then people usually start ejecting towards Bibi. And right now, this combination with Lapid brings him something. But definitely it's not enough. Not yet.

[Gabe Silverstein]

Hi, it's Gabe Silverstein from the ARC Media team.

You may know me from research by Gabe Silverstein.

This summer, I participated in a Birthright trip. So I can tell you exactly what they mean when they say one trip changes everything. Birthright didn't just connect me with my Israeli brothers and sisters in a spiritual and lasting way. Birthright gave me a deeper understanding of what it means, means to be a Jew and where I fit into the Jewish story. It's incredible to me that this organization exists. And I know that behind every one of these trips are generous people who made it happen, people like you. Birthright Israel's goal is to inspire and empower a new generation of Jewish young adults to help make that happen and to create more life changing experiences like mine, please visit birthrightisrael.found foundation/ call me back.

[Nadav El]

Birthright.

[Gabe Silverstein]

One trip changes everything.

[Dan Senor]

Okay, so I want to dive into some polling here. In a recent poll on Con 11 asking Israelis whether they believe Israel has won the war, 57% responded no, 15%

[Gabe Silverstein]

said they don't know, and 28% said

[Dan Senor]

Israel won on at least one of the fronts of the war. Is whether or not Israel has come out of this seven front war close to three years after it started. Is that going to be the focal point of these elections? I'll start with you, Amit.

[Amit Segal]

That's the number one question. With all due respect to the decisions made by Bennett and Lapid and might be taken by Eisenkurt soon, the number one factor in this election is the sentiment in the Israeli public of fatigue.

[Dan Senor]

But fatigue is different than losing the war. You could win the war and be exhausted. Okay.

[Amit Segal]

No, no. So no one thinks that Israel lost the war. I think people might tell you the perception, especially after the hostages were brought back home, is that entirely and generally we took a terrible hit on October 7th. We suffered heavy losses afterwards. But Israel is in a stronger position not only when it is compared to October 7, but to October 6 as well. However, it reminds me of the COVID crisis five years ago. Netanyahu lost an election because people were tired of yet another Covid restrictions and staying at home, etc. And even though Netanyahu brought the vaccines, I think almost first in the world, people were under the impression that it is going to go forever. And they were disappointed. And when people are disappointed, usually the government, the coalition, suffers the most. And that's why the turnout in Richard et Ceion, as I've mentioned, was lower than in the center left strongholds. And Netanyahu lost the election. Now war is not Covid. Netanyahu is by large more responsible to the process, for good or bad than Covid. So if in six months from now people will be under the impression that Israel won and now they have time to recover, to go shopping, to go to concerts that you know, the American and European air carriers are back in Israel, so you have many cheap flights, you can find a getaway in London or in New York City for a weekend, then Netanyahu would gain. If, like today, you'll still have an open front in Lebanon and an open front in Iran, I suspect Netanyahu would not have a lot to expect from this election.

[Dan Senor]

Nadav, anything to add to that?

[Nadav El]

I agree that if he doesn't manage to start arranging fronts or at least coming to some sort of settlements in these fronts, Ben Netanyahu is in big trouble towards the elections. So he needs to show that it was worth it. And by worth it, I'm literally translating from Hebrew. This is the sentiment of Israelis. Israelis sat during the war with Iran right now. They sat in their safe rooms. Is it worth it? If this means that really the threat is going to be significantly lower, it's going to be a different Middle East. Yes, it's worth it. Israelis always open up wars with this sentiment. The second Lebanon war was exactly the same back in 2006, Israeli said. But now it's for good, right? And now we're willing to suffer. But then if they get disappointed by the results, hell hath no fury like what happens then. At the end of the day, this is Netanyahu. And there is also a discrepancy in polls that I want to mention. If you look at the Channel 12 poll, well, you see that nothing changed in the blocks as a result of Lapid joining Bennett. Nothing, absolutely nothing changed. So it's like Netanyahu sometimes says. He said in the previous election, I don't interfere in the way that the lefties divide their votes. And this is his typical response to different unities within their blocs. So nothing changed. They didn't lose voters and they didn't gain voters. However, if you look at the Channel 13 poll, which is the rival to Channel 12, its poll is saying that the Bennett Lapid bloc lost significant seats as a result of this unity. If I'm not mistaken, I mean, you can correct me. So I don't know which poll is actually true and is actually representing the reality there. But if they're losing votes over this, if they're losing seats over this unity, that's a big thing. That's a big achievement for Netanyahu. To your question, Dan, it could be detrimental to the results of the elections.

[Dan Senor]

One issue that I think folks over here don't entirely understand for good reason, is that there's an inherent weakness in the structure of the anti Netanyahu bloc because there's always, always the threat that voters will break to the right and vote for Netanyahu's block for reasons, some of which you're getting into here, but Netanyahu's voters, there is not a risk within Netanyahu's bloc, so it seems for big chunks of his bloc that will go elsewhere. So there is a risk always that there are some within the opposition bloc that will voters will go to Netanyahu's block. But Netanyahu doesn't face the same threat because he has these built in supporters, the ultra orthodox. I don't think in this environment are gonna go to a bloc led by Bennett and Lapid. The National Rel are certainly not going to go to Bennett and Lapid. So this seems to be like a structural flaw in the anti Netanyahu block. I'm just speaking analytically here. I just. It's just those sub blocks don't move. So what's Bennett's? I mean he's a smart guy, he's pro. I'm sure he's thought this through. So what's his, what's his fix here?

[Amit Segal]

His fix here is to believe the polls of Channel 12 which put him on 60 seats, just one seat short of majority of a Zionist majority. If Bennett's Zionist bloc gets 61 seats, Bennett is the prime minister for the next four years and Netanyahu resigns, you can be quite sure about it. No one is going to actually bring back Netanyahu and he'll be 83 in the next round of election. However, according to each and every poll in Israel in the last week, Bennett doesn't have this majority. So there are two options. One is against all the denials to form a coalition again with the support of at least one Arab party. It was very difficult in 2021. It is way more difficult this time. I just want to remind that the coalition began its collapse in 2022 when a tail wave of 22 casualties, which is give or take 2% of October 7, cracked the coalition because the government wanted to attack and ram, the Arab non Zionist party opposed it and banned the coalition for a few weeks.

[Dan Senor]

Just when you say a non Zionist party, I just want our listeners to know what you're. It's an Arab Muslim party.

[Amit Segal]

Arab Muslim party, right? Yes. I'll give you one example. Mansour Abbas, the leader, said many important things about Israel being a Jewish and democratic state. However, he never defined Hamas as a terrorist organization. A Knesset member in his party said that she hadn't witnessed babies being murdered and women being raped on October 7th. And of course he demanded her to apologize. But nonetheless, it is not the number one ingredient one wants in their coalition. And Bennett declared that it is not going to happen. However, since he has already broke his words a few times, I suspect that if he gets 59, 60 seats, he's going there. On the other side, if Netanyahu gets more than 57, 58 seats your scenario is going to happen. There will be a race to who joined forces with Netanyahu, Lieberman, Bennett, maybe even Eisencot. So the gray area or twilight zone is if Bibi, according to Chal12, gets something between 50 to 55, because then they'll have way more seats, even zanist seats than Netanyahu, but short of majority and then maybe unity government, maybe a new election, who knows?

[Dan Senor]

Okay, Nadav, I want to ask you about Gadi Eisenhat. We've been throwing his name around here, but we haven't done a short but deep dive on Gotti Eisenhower. So who is Gadi Eisenhut? Why does he matter?

[Nadav El]

Gadi Eisenkot is first and foremost a former chief of staff. This is angle in which he approached the Israeli political sphere. He joined in the previous elections. His son was killed in action in Gaza. And this of course, and also not only his son, but also his nephew. Both were killed in Gaza during the war. Eisenkot himself is a very popular person, not only because of these reasons and the appreciation that the Israeli public is showing towards him is coming from a grieving family. There's a lot of respect at the Israeli public for those who made the sacrifice during the war. It's also the fact that he comes from a tradition of serving, of true service, public service in his family. And he is widely seen, as was mentioned here, as the most popular person right now in the political sphere, the most consensual person in the political sphere right now. You shouldn't put too much into this. Sometimes people like persons in Israeli politics, but it doesn't mean that they're actually going to elect them or they think that they are suitable for prime ministership. So occasionally you will see these pieces of data about people who seem to be extremely popular and consensual, but they don't have what Israeli political analysts sometimes refer to as the killer instinct. In the case of Gadi Eisenkot, and traditionally with former chiefs of staff, in order to become a chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, you definitely need to have a killer instinct. Most probably also literally, but definitely on a political sphere, you need to go through a lot of hurdles. And what I like about Gadi Eisenhower is that people usually, this is one point of his strength, people usually don't appreciate enough how sophisticated he is. He doesn't look sophisticated, okay, he doesn't give that impression. But he's an extremely sophisticated operator that understands. For instance, strategically, if you want to have a strategic overview of where Israel is in the region. And to have an original take there, Eisenquote is a great example. Now, he doesn't carry a lot of baggage from his period as the chief of staff. So he doesn't have this, which is always a problem for former chiefs of staff. So he had quite a good tenor as a chief of staff. And right now, if you want me to kind of do the differences between him and Yair Lapid, for instance, maybe Amit could do better than me. I don't know of any deep ideological rift between Lapid and Eisenhower.

[Dan Senor]

Well, yeah, Eisenhower seems like very much like the consensus man, the consensus candidate. But I want to ask you, Amit, to respond to something that Nadav just said. Sagadi Eisenhod served as IDF chief of staff, as Nadav said, from 2015 to 2019.

[Gabe Silverstein]

If you look at many of the

[Dan Senor]

criticisms of the Israeli government in terms of moves that were made specifically under Netanyahu that led to the Conceptia, the conception of the threat from Hamas and the illusions, shall we say, on how to manage Hamas, a lot of those criticisms, when we look back now, occurred during that period. And clearly, as you have said, Amit, as you said on this podcast, Netanyahu is prime minister and deserves a lot of that blame. And these were decisions about, by the

[Amit Segal]

way, Eisenkot quoted, took this sound bite to his heads last week from Call me back.

[Dan Senor]

Really?

[Amit Segal]

This one? This very specific one? Yes.

[Nadav El]

All right.

[Dan Senor]

There we go.

[Amit Segal]

So you're famous now. You're famous, Dan.

[Dan Senor]

I don't know if I'm famous. I think they're quoting you, not me. But in any event, that's interesting to me. So I wonder now if he'll quote what I'm about to ask you, because my understanding is that decisions about reducing the number of divisions within the idf, so shrinking the footprint of the idf, shrinking the size of the idf, depending more a heavier emphasis on technology, technological tools as a substitute for having a

[Amit Segal]

Boots on the ground.

[Dan Senor]

Boots on the ground, yes. Army decisions about what kind of threat Hamas posed, decisions about how to deal with Qatar, where the government of Qatar fits into the whole relationship. Again, I'm not here to say this one's more to blame than that one. That's. I mean, in many respects, I do wonder how much Eisenhower is benefiting from being the fresh face in Israeli politics. And when you're the fresh face, the scrutiny on your background is not baked into the, shall we say, the price of the stock. Yeah. And now because he's the new exciting figure, he's also going to be Subjected to a whole raft of new and maybe not so exciting but surprising scrutiny. Do you think that becomes a liability?

[Amit Segal]

Not at all. Because there is no one to blame Eisenhower. I'll explain why. Substance wise, you are absolutely right. And I think the same applies for Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid and first and foremost, of course, for Benjamin Netanyahu.

[Dan Senor]

Just to stay on this, because Lapid and Bennett served in governments with Bibi during that same time that I'm referring to.

[Amit Segal]

For many, many years, I haven't noticed a single change when it came to Gaza. On the way they dealt with Gaza and Netanyahu, Netanyahu might have set the principles, but they could have changed it. I mean, had they thought that Gaza is maltreated or mistreated, they could have changed it. However, campaign wise, as long as you bear even 99.9% of the responsibility compared to your main rival, your rival would never dare to attack you because when it comes to this issue, he will be blamed more so it's his weak point. It's always about. I mean, usually campaigns focus on the relative advantage. So Netanyahu has a relative advantage when it comes to experience or Judaism or etc. Or right wing. No one is ever going to attack Eisenkurt because the only one to attack Eisenhower on these bases is the recruit. And the recruitment definitely doesn't want to focus on October 7th. They want to focus on the pager attack in Lebanon, Iran, Palestinian statehood. They are never going to ask Eisenhut a single question about this pre October 7 period.

[Dan Senor]

Nadav, any response to that?

[Nadav El]

I think that at the end of the day it would be judged whether or not the opposition can still have any discussion on October 7th that would be meaningful in terms of actually turning voters from one bloc to the other. And I seriously doubt that, because right now the discussion as to October 7th has been so entrenched and so tribal and so discussed, and no national commission of inquiry is going to be formed. And even if there was going to be any commission of inquiry, it's not going to be legitimate by either side. And this is the product of a sustained campaign by the Prime Minister. He's worked very, very hard to get us to the point in which everything surrounding October 7th would be a matter of narrative. And because of that, I don't see how making a campaign on October 7th is actually going to change trends. But it can entrench your own support. And since right now, and I want to underline that, according to every poll, including that Channel 13 poll. That's an outlier. Every poll. Netanyahu is losing the selection. So it's true what Amit said about the Zionist coalition parties. I think that if there's going to be a 61 in the Knesset that don't support Netanyahu, there's going to be a different government, and it's not going to be a Netanyahu government unless the Likud is willing to join or Netanyahu is willing to join as a finance minister to Prime Minister Bennett. Any 61, including the Arab parties. And people who are listening don't see Amit, who's smiling because he doesn't think Netanyahu is going to join Bennett as his finance minister. And I don't.

[Amit Segal]

He's not allowed to be a finance minister. Minister. Because according to the Israeli law, once you're indicted, you are not allowed to serve as minister. You are only allowed to serve as a prime minister.

[Nadav El]

You know what? I think that if Netanyahu would be willing to join the Bennett lapid government as a finance minister, I think even the Israeli center left will pass a specific law allowing him to be the finance minister despite his indictment. They will celebrate it at the Rabin Square in Tel Aviv.

[Dan Senor]

Yeah.

[Amit Segal]

You're saying that the law is not an impediment? No.

[Nadav El]

It would be a specific law, you know.

[Amit Segal]

No, no, no.

[Nadav El]

I'm kidding.

[Amit Segal]

I'm kidding. All right.

[Dan Senor]

I want to just ask you. I wasn't intending to get into this, but he is a factor, at least not. I wasn't intending to get into this. On today's episode, Avigdor Lieberman. Amit, who is Avigdor Lieberman? And could he position himself as someone who could tip the balance here one way or the other?

[Amit Segal]

Avigdor Lieberman was described in Israeli Ereth Nederet, the Israeli equivalent of Saturday Night Live, as a lunatic Russian fascist. In 2009, when he was the kingmaker from the right wing, he articulated support. In the past in hanging each and every Arab Knesset member, he said that Israel should attack both Egypt and Iran simultaneously with Egypt. We've already had a peace agreement at the time. I just want to remind.

[Dan Senor]

And didn't he also support some kind of expulsion of Palestinians or. He called Jordan the Palestinian state. Right.

[Amit Segal]

No, more than this, actually. Expulsion of Israeli Arabs under the name of securing a Jewish majority. Okay.

[Dan Senor]

And like many of Netanyahu's current adversaries, political adversaries, he got his start in politics as Netanyahu's chief of staff.

[Amit Segal]

Exactly. Which makes it only natural that this character that I described is the new hope for the center left in Israel these days. Why? Because the distance course has shifted from security and policy and diplomacy towards judicial reform, seculars versus ultra orthodox, et cetera. And Lieberman is a resounding voice against, first, the ultra orthodox parties, second, Benjamin Netanyahu's regime, which makes him a natural partner to a new center left coalition. However, I must say that when Lieberman says has said on Meet the Press last week that he is going to be the next Prime Minister of Israel, it's not that I'm going to put a million dollars on polymarket, I am just suggesting to take him seriously and to try to predict his plan. And in my opinion, he's going to benetize Bennett. He's going to tell Bennett a day after the election, Look, I got 10 seats, you got 25. But if you don't let me be the Prime Minister first, I might consider to join forces with Netanyahu.

[Dan Senor]

Really?

[Amit Segal]

That's just a conspiracy. But that's my conspiracy. And you can read it in Israel. Ayom, in two days from now. Nadav, please don't write about it to idiot on Friday.

[Nadav El]

I'm actually writing exactly the opposite, that it will never happen. And what Amit writes in Israel isn't true.

[Amit Segal]

Great, I'm relieved.

[Nadav El]

Now, as to Lieberman, I don't know if he's going to turn his back on the centrist bloc. I have no idea. He has turned his back to the right wing bloc. And in general, the general dynamics of Israeli politics has been since before 2023, since 2020, that member after member of Netanyahu bloc are turning their back on the Netanyahu bloc. And this is the reason why Israeli politics is changing. Israeli politics isn't changing because the public is turning to the left or to the center. It's changing because people who have been partners of Netanyahu don't want to work with them. And then they put all sorts, they inject ideology into this or the way that he's managing the country or the results. This is true for Bennett, it's true for Lieberman, it was true for Gidon Sar, who has now made his way back to Netanyahu. And the question is, can it hold to the elections? And does October 7th change the dynamics in a way that will give a resounding victory? And if we are talking about scripts for the future, scenarios for the future that are out of the normal, if Netanyahu thinks that he's going to lose the elections for sure if, for instance, he will see a watershed moment in the polls in which he does have a Zionist coalition against him, I'm sort of wondering what he will do towards the election. So I'm not doubting that he's running for prime minister right now. I'm absolutely not doubting that. But what I'm saying is we're seeing that the Israeli President Herzog is trying to have some sort of a plea deal. We're seeing the reports in Israel that Netanyahu had cancer that was treated, that came out to the press. We're seeing, I would say, the international arena. It doesn't look like he doesn't stand a chance right now. Netanyahu is absolutely a favorite in this election simply because he has won so many elections before and he is the prime minister. However, I wouldn't rule out anything in this election campaign. We have six months. I heard from a political operator the other day, again, something that both Amit and myself wrote about the possibility of Netanyahu seeing himself as a future president of Israel.

[Dan Senor]

Well, that is quite a cliffhanger. We will leave it there. Amit, Nadav, thanks for doing this. And we will be back to you soon and a lot. And let's see if more clips of Call Me Back and wind up in Israeli campaign ads on the campaign trail.

[Amit Segal]

Absolutely.

[Dan Senor]

All right, guys, thanks for doing this.

[Nadav El]

Thanks very much.

[Amit Segal]

Thank you so much.

[Dan Senor]

That's our show for today.

[Gabe Silverstein]

If you value the Call Me Back

[Dan Senor]

podcast and you want to support our

[Gabe Silverstein]

mission, please subscribe to our weekly members only show, Inside Call Me Back.

[Dan Senor]

Inside Call Me Back is where Nadavael,

[Gabe Silverstein]

Amit Segal and I respond to challenging questions from listeners and have the conversations that typically occur after the cameras stop rolling. To subscribe, please follow the link in the show notes or you can go to arkmedia.org that's arkmedia.org Call Me Back is produced and edited by Lon Benatar. Arc Media's executive producer is Adam James Levin Aretti. Our production manager is Brittany Cohn. Our community manager is Ava Wiener. Our music was quite composed by Yuval Semo. Sound and video editing by Liquid Audio. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor. With a ceasefire in place and flights to Israel resumed, this is the moment to send young Jewish adults on a Birthright trip to Israel. Not next year now. Because after two and a half years of misinformation, reality needs to speak for itself. Over the past 25 years, Birthright has sent more than 900,000 young Jews to Israel. They come back more confident, more connected to each other and to Israel. They go on to build Jewish families, lead our communities, and feel part of a 4,000 year Jewish history that belongs to them. Birthright's new goal is to send another 200,000 young adults to Israel by 2029. But it takes people like you to make that happen. To help shape that Future, go to onetripchangeseverything.com.