Call Me Back with Dan Senor

Episode: ISRAEL VOTES: The Political Landscape
Guests: Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal
Date: February 9, 2026

Overview

This episode launches the “Israel Votes” series, setting the stage for Israel’s momentous 2026 election—the first since the October 7th attacks. Dan Senor is joined by Israeli political journalists and ARC Media contributors Nadav Eyal and Amit Segal to analyze the challenges, stakes, and underlying currents shaping the election. The discussion addresses Netanyahu’s political survival, the shifting dynamics around Israel’s traditionally stable voting blocs, the enduring impacts of October 7th, and how issues like military service, tribalism, and trust in government affect Israeli democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Central Question: Netanyahu’s Survival Post-October 7th

• The primary framing of the election is whether Benjamin Netanyahu can politically survive the aftermath of October 7th, which exposed significant government and security failures (00:37, 11:55).
• Nadav Eyal summarizes:
  “These elections, as were the previous ones, are actually a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu…. The main question for me in this election is will the Netanyahu brand manage to survive this referendum considering October 7?” (11:55)

2. Voting Blocs: Small Shifts, Big Impacts

• Amit Segal explains how a relatively small portion of the electorate—approximately 300,000 swing voters—will determine the outcome (07:31).
• Even major historical upsets involved only tiny vote shifts:
  “Even in 1977, which was the number one upset in Israeli politics, only 7% of the popular vote moved from left to right.” (07:31)
• The election pivots on discontent with coalition partners, especially the unpopular ultra-Orthodox parties versus Arab parties (08:36).

3. The Four Key Concerns of the Soft Right

• Amit outlines the internal dilemmas of Netanyahu’s moderate right-wing swing voters:
  1. Netanyahu’s responsibility for October 7.
  2. Credit for security successes post-attack.
  3. Dislike of ultra-Orthodox dominance in government.
  4. Rejection of coalitions with Arab parties.
     “There isn’t a single party that offers or agrees with all four arguments… So we are still waiting for this party who might say we—1,2,3,4.” (10:30)

4. Netanyahu as "Mr. Security": Can That Card Still Win?

• Nadav and Amit debate whether Bibi can continue positioning himself as Israel’s ultimate protector, especially since October 7th shattered that image (17:46, 22:45).
• The narrative battle centers on what the war is called:
  “Netanyahu says, no, it’s like the Second Independence War.… The center left says, this is the October 7th War.” (17:46)
• Nadav recalls a classic Netanyahu campaign spot:
  “He says, I’m the BB sitter… I’m here to take care of your kid. Bibi is here to keep your children safe.” (24:18)

5. The War, Judicial Reform, and the Ultra-Orthodox Divide

• Three mega-issues intertwine:
  • Judicial reform (deepening left-right schisms)
  • Ultra-Orthodox exemption from military service (growing resentment)
  • The war with Hamas and broader questions around security and accountability (22:04)
• For many voters, these are all filtered through Netanyahu himself, who frames opposition as persecution:
  “He sees the judicial reform… as a way to fight a system of a deep state that has taken over the country and is trying to break him down.” (22:45)

6. Israel as a Tribal Society

• Nadav highlights persistent political tribalism:
  “In Israel, society is much more tribal and it has become much more traditional and religious than the society in the U.S.… The entire elections would be decided on about eight seats of the Knesset.” (27:58)
• Swing votes are concentrated among “soft right” urban voters with ambivalence toward both Bibi and his alternatives (27:58).

7. Protests and the Question of Accountability

• Despite major protests demanding an independent inquiry into October 7, Nadav doubts they’ll influence the outcome:
  “The conversation has become completely tribal. Netanyahu has managed completely to make the entire issue of that state commission an issue of pro and against Bibi.” (32:36)
• Netanyahu avoids commissions of inquiry to prevent binding fault-finding:
  “Netanyahu has not formed one during his entire career. And the reason…is because in Israel, these commissions have the power to say something quite radical.” (32:30)

8. Demographics and the Right’s Natural Growth

• Amit notes the right-wing’s demographic advantage:
  • Ultra-Orthodox and nationalist families average 4–6 children per family.
  • Since 2022, “the average net growth for the right wing is something like three seats out of the 120.”
    “I wouldn’t underestimate the natural growth factor.” (21:36)

9. Optimism and Concern: Personal Reflections

• Nadav worries about eroding civil discourse and potential for political violence:
  “I think that Israel is marching into this elections when the society is in its worst position in terms of tribalism and violence… It’s a loss of civility within Israeli society.” (38:09)
• Amit is more optimistic that Israel may have passed the peak of tribalism:
  “I think that we have passed the peak of tribalism in Israeli society… The outcome wouldn’t necessarily be that the election leads to a unity government.… You might find yourself in a year from now wondering why we have wasted so much time and energy on disputes.” (41:32, 43:17)
• Both hope election results will bring greater governmental focus on citizens’ wellbeing and national renewal.

Notable Quotes

• Nadav Eyal:
  “These elections…are actually a referendum on Benjamin Netanyahu. And the main question for me in this election is will the Netanyahu brand manage to survive this referendum considering October 7th?” (11:55)

• Amit Segal:
  “Netanyahu’s raison d'être has been for years being Mr. Security…. There isn’t any precedent of a prime minister in Israel surviving a security failure. But…I want to be cautious, because it’s Mr. Netanyahu who broke each and every precedent in the past.” (17:46)

• Nadav Eyal, on Netanyahu’s campaign style:
  “Netanyahu is probably the best campaigner in the Western world today, with one big exception, which is, of course, President Trump.” (20:25)

• Amit Segal, on coalition dynamics:
  “For Netanyahu, it would be better for Netanyahu to get 58 seats rather than an outright majority of 61…. The ultra Orthodox would want full exemption…For Netanyahu, it’s better to have 58 and then get what he used to [have] in the past, which is the alleged leftist part of the coalition.” (41:32)

• Nadav Eyal, on civil strife:
  “What we’re seeing right now just in pure violence in the streets that is developing… It’s a loss of civility within Israeli society.” (38:09)

Memorable Moments with Timestamps

• Netanyahu’s BBsitter Ad Description: (24:18)
• Amit’s Demographic Analysis of the Right: (21:31)
• Discussion of the “Referendum on Bibi” Framing: (11:55, 12:18)
• Debate on the Naming of the War: (17:46)
• Protests over Accountability for Oct. 7 and Lack of Inquiry: (31:50–36:38)
• Personal reflections and hopes for Israel’s future: (38:09–43:17)

Important Segments (By Timestamp)

• [00:37] — Framing the stakes: Will “the Netanyahu brand” survive?
• [07:31] — The power of small shifts: historical perspective & electoral math
• [11:55] — Elections as a referendum on Bibi
• [17:46] — Can Netanyahu survive political norms after October 7? The role of campaign strategy
• [22:04] — Judicial reform, ultra-Orthodox controversy, war: interwoven election issues
• [24:18] — The enduring “Mr. Security” campaign and ad strategy
• [27:58] — Israel’s tribal politics and swing voter demographics
• [31:50] — Public demand for commission of inquiry into October 7
• [38:09] — Panelists share personal concerns and hopes heading into the election

Tone & Style

Discussion is candid, analytical, and concerned, alternating between data-driven analysis, sharp political storytelling, and personal, civic reflection. Both guests are insightful, alternating skepticism and guarded optimism about Israel’s democratic resilience.

TL;DR

This episode dissects the approaching Israeli election, widely seen as a personal referendum on Netanyahu against the backdrop of October 7. Swing votes, coalition arithmetic, tribalism, and the war’s aftermath emerge as decisive factors, with guests divided in their assessment of whether a future of consensus or further fragmentation awaits. The stakes for Israeli society feel existential, but hope remains for a better political and civic future.