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- [00:00]
Host
Foreign you are listening to an art media podcast. It's 10:30pm on Wednesday, June 18 here in New York City. It's 5:30am on Thursday, June 19 in Israel after Israelis were on the receiving end of more missile attacks from Iran, albeit much fewer than in previous nights. As we record, the big question continues to be will President Trump order an American strike on Iran? Specifically on Fordo, Trump has been consistently speaking and posting on the matter, saying that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and that Iran has made a grave mistake by failing to sign a deal when they had a chance to. According to the Wall Street Journal, President Trump has approved the attack plan on Iran but is holding off giving the final order. The US has started evacuating some diplomatic personnel from its embassy in Israel through emergency flights and ships and also embassy staff or embassy staff. Families from capitals in the Sunni Gulf states are also evacuating many of their homes and and those countries. There are also reports that the American military has relocated some aircrafts and ships from bases in the Middle east that could be vulnerable to an Iranian strike. Most surprising and perhaps revealing is that even those senior Trump administration officials, including some in or near the president's inner circle, most opposed to direct US Involvement, are themselves explaining that one President Trump has always, going back almost a decade, made clear that he was opposed to Iran getting a nuclear weapon two, that the President has become fed up with Iran's inability or unwillingness to negotiate a real deal and three that the chances of ending this war and ending a possible Iranian nuclear threat go up to something like 90% or higher if the US handles this rather than Israel handling the last phase alone. And of course, these officials remind us Iran has been a consistent threat to the U.S. there was, of course, the 1979 hostage crisis. In 1983, Hezbollah, backed by Iran, killed 241 Marines in Beirut, and then in the 2000s, Iranian proxies killed more than 1,000 U.S. troops across the Middle East. And of course, Iran continues to be, and has been going back decades, a state sponsor of terrorism against US Civilians and US Interests around the world. This may explain why recent polling of the American public and more notably Republican primary voters shows very strong support for the United States standing with Israel in this war against Iran, even if it means US Military support. Senate Republicans have been circulating a poll that show three in four GOP primary voters support Israel's military action against Iran and US Support for Israel in this war. Even CNN polling shows similar results. Henry Enten, independent political and polling analyst for cnn, reviewed the poll on CNN yesterday. Listen to him here.
- [03:39]
Henry Enten
Yeah, look, I think it's a complicated picture overall, but on this particular question, and overall, I feel like there's more support for Donald Trump's positions than is comically acknowledged. Oppose Iran getting a nuclear weapon. I mean, look at this. 79% of adults agree on that. They agree with Donald Trump. Iran cannot get a nuclear weapon. 83% of Republicans, 79% of independents, 79% of Democrats. When you get 79% of Democrats and 83% of Republicans agreeing on anything, you know that that position is the very clear majority in this country. And so the American public is with Donald Trump and they definitely oppose Iran getting nuclear weapons. Now, here's the other nugget I'll note, right? There's been a lot of talk online and on social media and in podcasts of a divide within the Republican ranks, but here on this question, if Iran's trying to make a nuclear weapon, look at that, 69% of Republicans, the clear, vast majority of Republicans, favor U.S. airstrikes on Iran on their nuclear facilities. But there is this substantial minority, 27%, who oppose such an idea. So it's not surprising you're hearing those other voices besides Donald Trump out there, that there are plenty of them in the Republican ranks who oppose striking the US Striking Iran, if they're trying to make a nuclear weapon. But the clear majority, the clear majority of Republicans are with Donald Trump. If in fact Iran is trying to make nuclear weapons, they do in fact, potentially favor U.S. airstrikes.
- [04:55]
Host
So while there's much analysis and speculation about a divide within the GOP over US Support for Israel's war against Iran, it does not seem to be reflected and where the Republican base, the conservative base of the party actually is on this issue. And then let's turn to IDF achievements in the war so far, as we anxiously await a verdict on what the US Will do. Israel has seen a decrease in the number of missiles launched by Iran in the past few days. On Tuesday night, Iran launched two barrages toward Israel, both of which amounted to only 30 missiles. Tonight, Wednesday, Iran launched just one missile towards Israel, which which the Israeli air defense intercepted. The past few barrages have resulted in no serious injuries or casualties. While this is certainly a positive trend, we do not know what's coming if the US does launch an attack on Iran. In that case, Iran could adopt a use them or lose them policy, meaning a massive launch of missiles toward Israel before the US Would be able to destroy them. And lastly, Iran is, from what we understand, seeking diplomacy as the regime continues to lose critical military and nuclear infrastructure due to the Israeli air force strikes, the Iranian regime is desperately seeking an end to the war through diplomacy, according to an unnamed European official. Representatives from Germany, France, the UK and even the European Union's top diplomat plan to hold nuclear talks with Iran on Friday in Switzerland. In in addition, a senior official in Iran's Foreign Ministry told the New York Times that Tehran is willing to hold negotiations with the U.S. however, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has publicly rejected this possibility, which is consistent with the analysis of Karim Sajapur, who has lived in Iran and is an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment and was on our most recent episode of Call Me Back. If you haven't already, I highly recommend listening to that episode. Our latest episode with Nadavael and Karim Sajapur on the three potential paths for Iran's nuclear ambitions Destroy, delay or dismantle. We'll leave it there for now in the news, but we're keeping a close eye on what comes next. And before we go, one Housekeeping note I know that many in the Call Me Back community have had travel plans to Israel disrupted. Count me among those looking forward to jumping on a flight to Tel Aviv as soon as they ramp up again. Our US Jewish community misses all of our Israeli visitors, but, especially at this time of year, the young Israelis who staff Jewish summer camps across the country. 1000 Israeli counselors are currently unable to make it to the US to assume their roles in bunks, kitchens, ropes courses and more. All across the U.S. the foundation for Jewish Camp is working quickly to match young American Jews who would otherwise have been traveling this summer to Israel with opportunities to spend their summer, or part of it, serving the Jewish community at Jewish summer camps. They have hundreds of roles available that they need to fill right away counselors, educators, unit heads, sports specialists, and more. I'm linking to the interest form in the show notes and encourage you or your kids or your grandkids to check it out. We'll check in with you in the days ahead. Sam.