Podcast Summary: "Resuming the Gaza War? - with Nadav Eyal"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
• Host: Dan Senor
• Guest: Nadav Eyal, Senior Analyst at Idiot Ahronot
• Release Date: February 17, 2025
• Description: The episode delves into the ongoing challenges and dilemmas facing Israelis in the context of the Gaza War, focusing on hostage negotiations, potential resumption of military operations, and the intricate interplay of international and domestic politics.

1. Current Situation and Hostage Deal Fragility

The episode opens with Nadav Eyal posing a critical question about Hamas's motivations: "Why should Hamas go through with the release of those hostages that are to be released, another 14, out of which at least six are supposed to be alive, if it knows that Israel is never going to agree to its existence as a military rule in the Gaza Strip?" (00:00) This sets the stage for a detailed discussion on the precarious nature of the current hostage deal between Israel and Hamas.

Dan Senor outlines the recent developments:

• As of February 16th, three hostages—Sagi Dah El Khan, Sasha Trufanov, and Yair Horn—were released.
• Tomorrow marks the 500th day of the Gaza War and the ongoing captivity of hostages.
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is preparing to present plans to potentially resume military actions in Gaza, addressing a "new reality" (00:38).

2. Negotiation Dynamics and Phase Two of the Hostage Deal

Nadav explains the fragility of the current phase of negotiations:

• Phase One: A three-page agreement in Qatar facilitated the initial release of hostages.
• Phase Two: Intended to secure the return of all live hostages within 42 days, commence rebuilding in Gaza, and establish a political agreement for Gaza's management. However, this phase is uncertain due to significant discrepancies between Israel and Hamas.

Nadav emphasizes the lack of a clear path forward:

"Phase two of the deal, including about seven sentences. So this gives a lot of room to maneuver to both sides of what exactly would be phase two." (03:58)

3. Hamas's Stance and Israel's Strategic Goals

The discussion highlights the fundamental conflict:

• Hamas's Position: Rejects any agreement that undermines its control over Gaza and does not recognize Israel's right to exist.
• Israel's Position: Seeks the complete eradication of Hamas to ensure long-term security.

Nadav elaborates on Hamas's reluctance to release hostages knowing Israel's non-acceptance of Hamas's military rule:

"Why should Hamas go through with the release of those hostages...if it knows that Israel is never going to agree to its existence as a military rule in the Gaza Strip?" (07:00)

4. US Involvement and Political Pressures

The role of the United States, particularly under the Trump administration, is scrutinized:

• Marco Rubio’s Visit: Aimed at advancing the second phase of the ceasefire and potentially normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.
• Trump’s Statements: Expressing support for Israel's decisions, conflicting with diplomatic efforts to negotiate further.

Dan highlights contradictory signals from US officials:

"Trump seems to be pressuring Israel here from the right. On the one hand, you have Wyckoff saying we're going to move to second phase negotiations. And then Trump in his voice is saying...the United States will back the decision they make." (12:32)

5. Internal Israeli Perspectives and Challenges

Nadav discusses internal Israeli debates and political resistance:

• Gadi Eisenkot’s Advice: Prioritizes securing the return of all hostages before addressing Hamas.
• Public Sentiment: Approximately 70-75% of Israelis prioritize the safe return of hostages over other strategic considerations.

He shares insights from Eisenkot:

"Look, the Israeli society... it's important for its... strategic strength of the Israeli society. Get them back home. Don't mess it up." (11:32)

6. Media and Public Discourse on Negotiations

The episode touches on recent media revelations:

• Oren Setter’s Interview: Criticizes missed opportunities and internal sabotage in negotiations.
• Gallant’s Statements: Accuses far-right officials like Smotrich of leaking state secrets, leading to compromised hostage deals.

Nadav highlights the tension between high-ranking officials and the Prime Minister:

"These are like unnamed accusations against the people who are giving interviews right now." (25:57)

7. Potential Resumption of War and Military Strategies

Dan inquires about the IDF's plans for re-entering Gaza:

• Nadav’s Analysis: The IDF may employ more divisions synchronously across Gaza, rather than a sequential approach.
• Humanitarian Considerations: Israel might restrict humanitarian aid to specific zones while declaring the rest of Gaza a battle zone.

Nadav theorizes possible strategies:

"The IDF can move in a synchronized manner both north and south and center of the Gaza Strip, using a lot of its divisions entering the Gaza Strip at once." (31:23)

8. Hamas’s Future Warfare Tactics

Exploring Hamas's likely strategies if conflict resumes:

• Guerrilla Warfare: Avoiding large-scale battles and instead engaging in asymmetrical tactics.
• Long-Term Control: Hamas aims to maintain influence and control over Gaza despite military pressures.

Nadav explains:

"They expect Hamas to have a guerrilla warfare. They're not going to want to have big battles with the IDF across the Gaza Strip." (34:31)

9. Implications of a Prolonged Conflict

The conversation underscores the high stakes of prolonged warfare:

• Human Cost: Both military and civilian casualties are a significant concern.
• Strategic Outcomes: Delays in military action could allow Hamas to reorganize and strengthen.
• Psychological Impact: The return of each hostage serves as a unifying force for Israeli society, reinforcing the resolve to eliminate Hamas.

10. Conclusion and Future Outlook

Nadav concludes with a somber outlook:

• Inevitable Resumption: He predicts another round of fighting in Gaza, driven by the fundamental refusal of Hamas to cease hostilities.
• Israeli Determination: Emphasizes that Israel will not relent until Hamas is dismantled, ensuring long-term security.

He states:

"The story of Hamas in Gaza... needs to end. And the Israelis will not rest until it ends." (42:16)

Dan wraps up by highlighting the dichotomy presented by Trump’s plan:

"You either got to get the population out so you can fight Hamas or you get a way to get Hamas out." (42:16)

Notable Quotes:

• "Why should Hamas go through with the release of those hostages...?" – Nadav Eyal (00:00)
• "Phase two of the deal, including about seven sentences... lot of room to maneuver..." – Nadav Eyal (03:58)
• "We need to get as many as we can out now, possibly all of them if we can." – Nadav Eyal (07:00)
• "Get the hostages back home. Don't mess it up." – Gadi Eisenkot (11:32)
• "We have a sense... the whole thing could fall apart any moment." – Nadav Eyal (03:58)
• "You either got to get the population out so you can fight Hamas or you get a way to get Hamas out." – Dan Senor (42:16)

Key Takeaways:

• The hostage deal between Israel and Hamas is highly fragile, with significant doubts about its sustainability.
• Fundamental disagreements exist between Israel and Hamas, making Phase Two of negotiations particularly challenging.
• US political dynamics, especially under the Trump administration, add layers of complexity to the situation.
• Internal Israeli politics and public sentiment strongly influence decision-making processes regarding the conflict.
• The potential resumption of war poses significant risks, including higher casualties and long-term instability in the region.
• Both strategic and emotional factors drive Israel's determined stance against Hamas, emphasizing the importance of eliminating the threat to ensure national security.

This comprehensive discussion provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the current state of the Gaza War, the intricacies of hostage negotiations, and the multifaceted challenges facing Israeli leadership as they navigate this complex geopolitical crisis.