Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

Podcast: Call Me Back with Dan Senor
Episode: Rising Isolation: Why Aren't Israelis Alarmed? – with Amit Segal
Date: August 25, 2025

This episode examines Israel's current diplomatic isolation amid the ongoing conflict with Hamas and the fallout in international relations, using recent developments—such as major Western countries recognizing a Palestinian state and accusations of famine in Gaza—as a springboard. Dan Senor (Host) is joined by veteran Israeli journalist Amit Segal to dissect why Israelis seem relatively unalarmed by the growing global backlash, how the Israeli government perceives and responds to these challenges, and what the consequences could be. The conversation blends analysis of Israeli political dynamics, public opinion, internal debates, and the differences between Israeli society and the Diaspora.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Frame of the Crisis: Israel’s Growing Isolation

• Recent Events:
  • Mass rallies in Tel Aviv demanding hostage release ([00:58]).
  • International governments move towards recognizing a Palestinian state ([01:50]).
  • The UN’s Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) declares famine in North Gaza, which Israel disputes ([01:38]).
  • Growing calls within Israel for a new unity government, addressing both war burden and ultra-Orthodox enlistment ([01:20]).
• Main Question:
  • “What is actually Israel's strategy in response to all of this? The sense that the walls are closing in? Is there an actual strategy? Do Israelis recognize the severity of their isolation, or ... do they think they're insulated from it?” – Dan Senor ([02:32]).

2. Is There a Strategy? Israeli Government’s Approach

• Government’s Perception:

  • Israel relies heavily on its support from the Republican Party and the potential return of President Trump ([03:51], [08:17], [18:06]).
  • Netanyahu and Dermer focus diplomatically on a "narrow piece of land stretching from Congress to the White House" ([00:08], [18:06]).
  • Israel assumes isolation is temporary and will lift after the war ends, based on historical precedent ([08:17]).

• Quote:

  • “So Phil Netanyahu, when he was asked about the public opinion in the United States and worldwide, he said, yes, it was worse before... Israel always suffers a temporary decrease in the public opinion... during wars. And once the wars end, there is a recovery.” – Amit Segal ([00:08], [18:06])

• Duration of Wars Matters:

  • Amit Segal connects length of conflict with deepening isolation:
    “We now have a proof that the longer the wars are, the worse the situation of Israel is. It's as simple as that. And since it's Israel's longest war in its history... it shows [the] deterioration we experienced.” ([05:44])

3. Why Does Isolation Feel Different This Time?

• Mainstream Public Opinion:

  • Previous times, antagonism came mainly from elites and governments.
  • Now, “there's a mainstreaming in many Western societies of these vitriolic criticisms of Israel and this seemingly very well coordinated campaign to delegitimize Israel.” – Dan Senor ([09:40]).

• Amit Segal’s Analysis—Three Driving Factors ([10:22]):

  1. Urban Warfare Image:
     • Israel’s wars in populated areas feed a “David and Goliath” narrative, especially potent in the TikTok era ([10:22]).
     • “It's very, very hard to have highly covered in the TikTok era, a war against the terrorist organization who hides behind the population.” – Segal
  2. Influence of Qatari Money:
     • Funding impacts elite opinion in the West.
  3. Israeli Far Right’s Rhetoric:
     • The presence and statements of hard-right politicians (e.g., Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, and the Minister of Heritage) make Israel’s image harder to defend internationally ([12:26]).
     • “The damage would not be as big ... because you have hard times to explain people that Israel does not commit genocide when the way it is translated from a far right Hebrew to an international English sounds like Genocid.” – Amit Segal ([11:13])

• Opposition’s Role:

  • Opposition figures have also contributed by making damaging public statements that are amplified globally ([13:02]).
  • “When the former deputy IDF chief of staff says this, it sounds to the world like Israel pleads guilty that Israel does kill babies.” – Amit Segal on Yair Golan’s remarks ([13:02])

4. Who Really Makes Policy?

• Power Dynamics:
  • Despite outsized attention to controversial right-wing ministers, real power rests with the Prime Minister and a small inner circle ([14:54]).
  • “The Israeli Prime Minister is stronger than the American President. ... You take all the major decisions when it comes to security, to war and peace.” – Amit Segal ([14:54])

5. Is Israel Betting Too Much on Political Timing?

• Expectation of Political Shifts:
  • Argument that Israel can "wait out" unfriendly left governments in Europe until right-wing populists gain power ([24:38]):
    • “There is a sentiment in Israel that says, it's not that Europe is against us, it's the European left which is against us. So we have to wait patiently till the populist right takes the continent.” – Amit Segal ([24:39])
• Serious Risks for Israeli R&D and Economy:
  • Senor emphasizes BDS campaign effects and the potential loss of Israel’s participation in the Horizon Europe program ([25:45]).
  • “The whole program could end for Israel soon and it is one of the biggest sources for R and D funding for Israel.” – Dan Senor ([27:32])
• Shrugging off Warnings:
  • Repeated "tsunami" warnings in Israeli politics have bred apathy ([27:32]).
  • “For many Israelis it's yet another warning of a tsunami. But maybe now the tsunami is coming.” – Amit Segal ([27:32])

6. Why Are Average Israelis Unalarmed?

• Focus on Immediate Concerns:

  • Everyday Israelis prioritize personal, immediate issues: hostage deals, military drafts, and domestic debates about the ultra-Orthodox ([28:56]).
    • “What comes up is is there going to be a hostage deal? ... How outrageous is it that the Haredim, the ultra orthodox are not serving? These are the questions I hear from regular Israelis. The conversation we're having right now, I never hear why.” – Dan Senor ([28:56])

• Disconnect from Structural Isolation:

  • Mr. Segal: Israelis generally only take diplomatic threats seriously when they tangibly impact daily life—such as canceled flights or boycotts on leisure and sports ([29:31], [30:21]).

• Exposure to Gaza’s Reality:

  • Contrary to outside perception, Segal argues Israelis know the cost of war, both from proximity and personal connections ([31:55]).
  • “We know how wars look like and it's 50 minutes from here, and we know what happens when you speak about 60,000 casualties, even if one third is terrorists...” ([31:55])
  • Israeli media hesitated to show Gaza suffering post-October 7 due to national trauma, but Segal argues for presenting an honest, nuanced picture ([32:36]).

7. Impact of International Accusations: Genocide & Famine

• Israeli Public’s Response:
  • Many Israelis see accusations like famine or genocide as just more of the world’s perennial bias ([34:13], [34:40]).
  • “There is an old Israeli song named the entire world is against Us. And the next sentence is never mind we shall overcome.” – Segal ([34:40])
• Apathetic or Resigned?
  • Often, concern is not over the truth of such accusations but their fallout for Israel’s global standing ([34:40]).
  • Some senior ministers reportedly wish to end the war due to this high diplomatic cost, though are not outspoken ([35:35]).

8. Diaspora vs. Israeli Mindset

• Lack of Advocacy "Muscle"
  • Diaspora Jews have developed skills to justify and advocate for Israel—Israelis, as a majority in their own country, have not ([35:35]).
  • “In Israel, you don't have to explain it to anybody. And so they don't.” – Dan Senor ([35:35])
• Need for Change:
  • Segal suggests reframing foreign affairs as "security" issues might garner public support and resources ([36:33]).
  • “I would like to offer the Minister of Foreign affairs to change the name for the Minister of Security Foreign affairs and that he would get more money.” ([36:33])
  • Currently, there’s minimal investment in international advocacy compared to the enormous war costs ([36:33]).

9. Warning for the Future

• Consequences for Israelis Abroad:
  • Senor warns that arrest warrants targeting Israeli politicians may soon expand to Israeli citizens abroad, with tangible legal risks ("the campaign against Israel is intense. It's robust and it's sophisticated." – [37:50]).
  • The possibility of New York City electing a mayor pledged to honor ICC warrants for Israeli political figures ([39:27]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Netanyahu's Diplomatic Focus:
  “For Netanyahu, ... what we call the world is a very narrow piece of land stretching from Congress to the White House.” – Amit Segal ([18:06])

• On Far-Right Rhetoric’s Damage:
  “The way it is translated from a far right Hebrew to an international English sounds like Genocid.” – Amit Segal ([11:13])

• On Mainstreaming of Hostility:
  “This time, what feels different ... is it's not just elite ... There's a mainstreaming in many Western societies of these vitriolic criticisms of Israel...” – Dan Senor ([09:40])

• On Shrugging Off Dire Warnings:
  “For many Israelis it's yet another warning of a tsunami. But maybe now the tsunami is coming.” – Amit Segal ([27:32])

• On Diaspora vs. Israeli Muscle Tissue:
  “In the Diaspora. We're constantly ... making the case for Israel ... In Israel, you don't have to explain it to anybody. And so they don't.” – Dan Senor ([35:35])

Important Timestamps

• [00:08] – Netanyahu’s minimal focus on broad international opinion; sees isolation as temporary wartime effect.
• [01:50] – Wave of international recognition of a Palestinian state; famine claim; implications discussed.
• [05:44] – Segal opens with "best of times, worst of times" analysis for Israel’s diplomatic reality.
• [08:17] – Israeli strategy: dependence on US Republicans, assumption isolation will end post-war.
• [10:22] – Three drivers of worsening isolation: urban warfare optics, external money, far-right government.
• [12:26] – Role of inflammatory rhetoric from Israeli ministers; international repercussions.
• [14:54] – Ultimate decision-making power and the importance of coalition politics.
• [18:06] – Deep dive into Netanyahu's strategic thinking.
• [24:39] – Populist right’s rise in Europe; “wait them out” as implicit Israeli sentiment.
• [27:32] – EU's Horizon Europe program as a major economic/diplomatic fault-line.
• [28:56] – Why ordinary Israelis are so focused on immediate personal concerns, not isolation.
• [31:55] – Segal explains Israelis’ familiarity with war’s reality and images from Gaza.
• [34:40] – Segal references Israeli resilience: “the entire world is against Us... never mind we shall overcome.”
• [36:33] – Restructuring foreign affairs as "security" for increased resources—critical advocacy gap.
• [39:27] – Senor’s warning about practical risks facing Israelis abroad due to legal/diplomatic actions.

Tone and Language

The episode is frank, deeply analytical, and—especially from Senor’s perspective—marked by urgent concern and a sense of warning. Segal, while measured and pragmatic, also voices worries about long-term trends and the need for strategic adaptation. Sarcasm, Israeli dark humor, and cultural references (Eurovision, popular songs) provide some levity but underscore the seriousness of the moment.

Takeaways

• Current Israeli government’s diplomatic approach is highly reliant on specific foreign political actors and overly dismissive of broader international opinion trends.
• Public debate in Israel is much more focused on immediate security/war concerns than on structural shifts in international relations.
• Both government and opposition rhetoric inside Israel is feeding global narratives with real, damaging impact.
• There is a dangerous institutional and cultural gap in Israel’s ‘advocacy muscle’ compared to the Diaspora—a gap with real consequences as the ground shifts underneath Israel’s global standing.
• The risk of true, lasting isolation is growing, and both the government and public may be underestimating its structural, long-term impact.

Summary prepared for listeners seeking a comprehensive understanding of the episode's substance and context.