Call Me Back with Dan Senor

Episode: Saudi & UAE: The Cold Gulf War
Guests: Yonatan Adiri, Yael Wissner-Levy
Date: February 16, 2026

Overview

This episode unpacks the growing rivalry—dubbed the “Cold Gulf War”—between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Host Dan Senor, alongside guests Yonatan Adiri and Yael Wissner-Levy, goes beyond the common Israel-centric perspective to explore what’s driving the Saudi pivot away from normalization with Israel, and why the once-strong partnership between Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) is unraveling. The conversation also examines the impact on Israel, the tech ecosystem, and wider regional strategic realignment—especially concerning economic corridors and the role of India.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Unraveling Saudi-UAE Partnership (04:35–07:19)

• For over a decade, normalization with Saudi Arabia was considered by Jerusalem and Washington as the ‘key’ to Mideast progress.
• Recent developments reveal a sharper, deeper rivalry emerging between MBS and MBZ, fuelled by Saudi sensitivities over UAE’s growing regional economic and infrastructural influence.
• Dan Senor notes: “Beneath the surface we’re seeing a sharp and unexpected rivalry heating up inside the Gulf...” (04:38)

2. Inside MBS’s Political Calculus (07:19–11:59)

• Yonatan Adiri provides context: MBS’s ambitious attempts to reshape Saudi society and economics are faltering.
  • Three pillars being challenged:
    • Decoupling from oil dependency.
    • Undoing longstanding misogyny by promoting women’s participation.
    • Rebalancing the influence of the Wahhabi religious sect.
  • MBS is likened to a blend of Lee Kuan Yew (Singaporean visionary leader) and Martin Luther (religious reformer).
• Economic setbacks include missed Vision 2030 investment targets, and scaling back megaprojects like NEOM and The Line.
• Facing internal failures, MBS seeks to project strength externally—hence heightened hostility toward the UAE.

“He’s trying to do three things at once...and what we’re seeing now is that it’s not working. The internal dynamics...the failure to meet the goals of 2030 are...driving this turn of events.”
— Yonatan Adiri (07:50)

3. Saudi Foreign Policy Reset & Yemen Factor (11:59–14:24)

• Review of MBS’s early bold moves: Yemen military intervention, clampdowns on elite rivals.
• Yemen war was a pursuit of regional stability, but drew international criticism (notably after Khashoggi’s murder and subsequent U.S. condemnation).
• Adiri: Saudi movement toward Israel was partially about regaining legitimacy in Washington post-Khashoggi.

4. How Saudi Shifts Affect Israel (14:24–17:05)

• Yael Wissner-Levy: The Saudi-UAE feud, called by some “an epic feud,” is deepening, but Israel is “collateral damage”—not the central concern.
• Growing anti-Israel and anti-UAE narratives in Saudi-linked media (accusations of UAE as “Israel’s Trojan horse”).

“It’s turning normalization into ammunition and really becoming a political tool more than anything else.”
— Yael Wissner-Levy (16:49)

5. MBS & MBZ: From Mentorship to Rivalry (17:05–20:46)

• MBS publicly regarded MBZ as a mentor. The two collaborated, blockading Qatar and curbing the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence.
• The recent reversal is a profound geopolitical break: “If MBS can do that to his mentor, what would he have done with Israeli normalization...” (Adiri, 18:01).
• Flashpoint: Yemen separatists (STC) backed by UAE, bombed by Saudi forces, sparking outrage and deeper rift. Saudi narrative spins UAE as aggressor.

6. UAE’s Quiet Power & Strategic Positioning (20:46–24:00)

• Wissner-Levy: UAE executes “quiet diplomacy”—using economic assets, ports, corridors, and soft power rather than headlines.
• UAE’s normalization with Israel leveraged for infrastructure, not just symbolism.
• Competition over who becomes the linchpin between Asia and Europe; India is key to this ambition.

“The UAE has its own kind of soft power...instead of shouting, instead of the rhetoric, it’s building.”
— Yael Wissner-Levy (21:08)

7. The Economic Corridors Battle: Mapping the Stakes (24:00–27:36)

• Adiri: Control over energy routes—oil, gas, pipelines—defines 21st-century regional power.
• India is crucial: The IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Corridor) is designed to counter China’s influence.
• UAE is nimble, forming alliances with India (PM Modi), Russia (Putin), and controlling new pipeline routes through Central Asia—“masterfully responding to Saudi aggression.”

“This is a critical junction and the UAE has just mastered it...through clever diplomacy, understanding geopolitics, and seizing opportunities...”
— Yonatan Adiri (26:46)

8. Implications for Israel: Strategic Patience or Action? (28:34–37:03)

• With social tides shifting in Saudi Arabia, anti-Israel sentiment is now widespread among Saudis under 35—largely a result of post-October 7th coverage in pan-Arab media.
• Some Israeli officials advise “sitting tight”—the rift is tactical, not strategic, and Israel isn’t the main focus (30:37).
• Others argue Israel must stand firmly with UAE, recognizing the cost of losing such an indispensable, responsible partner.

“UAE has had Israel’s back...much more measured...a much more responsible partner.”
— Israeli official, as relayed by Dan Senor (32:07)

• Adiri’s take: Israel must remain a steadfast ally to UAE, prioritize regional partnerships with India, Azerbaijan, and others.
  “These are bigger issues...they stem from MBS’s challenges in running this three-part ambitious plan.” (33:46)

• Wissner-Levy: “Maybe not framing normalization as peace—selling it as a corridor, as an economic incentive...” (37:03)

9. Redefining Regional Strategy: Integration over Normalization (37:03–38:29)

• Saudis prefer “integration” rather than “normalization”—the latter is seen as underselling the transformative opportunity.
• Key insight: The path forward isn’t just treaties, but integrating economies and infrastructures.

“They don’t even like the word normalization. They like the word integration...Normalization almost sells the opportunity too short.”
— Dan Senor (37:15)

10. Impact on Israeli Innovation & High-Tech Ecosystem (38:29–40:18)

• Wissner-Levy: UAE remains a critical partner, especially for Israel’s defense/cyber/tech sectors.
  “Extremely important for both sides and the UAE stuck through, especially on the tech front...”
• Adiri: The original “Startup Nation” meme and ethos must evolve; regional integration (the “diamond axis” from India, UAE, Israel, Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, Greece/Cyprus) is now the frontier.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On MBS’s Reforms:
  “He’s trying to be Lee Kuan Yew...and Martin Luther...And what we’re seeing right now is that it’s not working.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 07:50

• On Saudi-UAE Decoupling:
  “If MBS can do that to his mentor, what would he have done with Israeli normalization had that been in effect right now?”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 18:01

• On UAE’s Strategy:
  “It’s treating normalization as the plumbing behind the scenes and not the politics...”
  — Yael Wissner-Levy, 21:12

• On Israel and UAE:
  “No UAE means no Abraham Accords. UAE has been central, indispensable...And we need to have their back.”
  — Israeli Official (relayed by Dan Senor), 32:07

• On Regional Integration:
  “India is the right partner. Saudi should come into the team...when it’s ripe, when it’s ready. Israel can’t wait.”
  — Yonatan Adiri, 34:38

• On Strategic Framing:
  “Maybe not framing normalization as peace, selling it as a corridor, as an economic incentive and making it something MBS can get optics that he has regional leadership cover...”
  — Yael Wissner-Levy, 37:03

Suggested Listening Guide

• 04:35 – Introduction to Saudi-UAE rivalry and the context of normalization
• 07:19 – Deep dive into MBS’s internal struggles and political reforms
• 12:30 – The Yemen intervention and Saudi-Western relations
• 14:24 – Saudi signaling and its shifting stance towards Israel
• 17:13 – Breakdown between MBS and MBZ and the history of their partnership
• 18:39 – Yemen STC incident as catalyst for Saudi-UAE split
• 21:08 – UAE’s quiet diplomacy and economic corridors
• 24:00 – The battle over global energy and trade routes
• 30:37 – Israeli officials’ readings: tactical vs. strategic shifts
• 32:07 – Israel’s choice: stand by UAE or hedge bets?
• 37:03 – Rethinking “normalization” — towards true integration
• 38:29 – The ever-present role of tech, innovation, and Startup Nation
• 40:18 – Adiri on evolution of “Startup Nation” and future frameworks

Tone & Language

• Analytical yet accessible, with frequent historical context and practical examples.
• Dan Senor aims for clarity, balance, and realpolitik insight.
• Yonatan Adiri brings deep regional nuance; Yael Wissner-Levy contextualizes with economic and tech-sector expertise.

Final Takeaways

• The Saudi-UAE split is about much more than Israel or a single geopolitical event: it reflects the fragility of sweeping domestic reform, new economic realities, and a race for regional influence.
• For Israel, the future lies in multidimensional, diversified partnerships—especially with the UAE, India, and beyond—rather than banking entirely on Saudi normalization.
• Regional peace may be less about ceremonial treaties and more about building shared economic infrastructure—the real “integration” of the 21st century Middle East.