Sneak Peek: Amit on what could be Israel’s election surprise, and more…

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Call Me Back – Sneak Peek: Amit on what could be Israel’s election surprise, and more…

Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Amit Segal (ARK Media Contributor)
Release Date: June 13, 2026
Theme: Challenges and dilemmas facing Israelis and Jews globally, with a focus on surprising trends in Israel’s political scene.

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Episode Overview

This special sneak peek features ARK Media contributor Amit Segal in a candid discussion with host Dan Senor. The conversation blends significant moments in Jewish and Israeli history with an in-depth look at the current Israeli political landscape, specifically unexpected election dynamics and shifting alliances. The episode aims to provide clarity on potential electoral surprises and offers perspective on political maneuvering that could reshape Israeli leadership beyond usual pundit expectations.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Jewish Diaspora & Shared Experiences

[00:04 - 04:16]

• Opening Reflections: Dan Senor describes New York City as “the capital of the Diaspora” and draws parallels between the vibrant Jewish community there and Israel itself.
• Sports & Cultural Bridges:
  • Dan shares the electrifying atmosphere of a recent New York Knicks basketball comeback, likening it to the famous 1977 Maccabi Tel Aviv victory over Moscow in basketball:

    “The closest comparison, if you want an Israeli to understand this, was when Maccabi Tel Aviv won over Moscow in 1977.” – Dan [03:10]

  • Amit recounts how that 1977 victory symbolized a pivotal moment for Israeli morale and international standing, referencing the iconic "We are on the map" phrase by Tal Brody.

    “Not only in basketball, but in everything... all of a sudden Israel looked like something else than a pariah state focusing on security and wars.” – Amit [03:50]

  • Both note how moments of sports, pop culture, and politics can signal deeper social transformations.

2. Potential Israeli Election Surprises

[04:16 - 06:59]

• Prompt: Dan asks Amit for an “election surprise no one is considering.”
• The Collapse of Bennett:
  • Amit explains the rapid and unprecedented fall in support for Naftali Bennett, quantifying the losses:

    “He is losing now 1.5 seats a week, which is 10,000 people a day... every 10 seconds, Bennett loses a voter.” – Amit [04:40]

  • Despite years as a leading contender, Bennett is rapidly losing ground to other candidates, notably Eisenkot.
• Lieberman as a Dark Horse:
  • Amit outlines why Avigdor Lieberman, usually seen as a marginal figure, might suddenly emerge as a contender for Prime Minister, given the nature of coalition politics:

    “Kingsmakers sometimes become the kings themselves... If you want to have a coalition, you must let me to be the Prime Minister.” – Amit [05:25]

  • He notes Lieberman’s political stability—despite low seat counts (6–9 seats), he’s often pivotal in forming coalitions and is “quite stable over the last five or six election campaigns.” [05:45]
  • Amit points out his own public prediction increased the betting odds for Lieberman:

    “While I'm not convinced that he's going to be the next Prime Minister, I'm quite convinced that he should be way higher on polymarket... right now, Lieberman’s chances... are somewhere around 10 to 20%.” [06:42]

3. Why Bennett Is Fading

[06:59 - 09:00]

• Polling vs. Reality:
  • Amit recounts a longstanding joke about Bennett’s poor performance compared to his polling numbers:

    “The best way to commit a suicide is to jump from Bennett' numbers in the polls to Bennett's real numbers in the ballots.” – Amit [07:08]

  • Historically, Bennett polls well but underdelivers due to a lack of clear political identity and trust.
• Crossing Political Lines:
  • Bennett’s shift from being a right-wing Netanyahu rival to joining the anti-Netanyahu camp has hurt his credibility with core voters.
  • Amit explains:

    “If you are in the opposition and he wants to win... the only reason to vote for Bennett is not because of ideological reasons, because he's still part of the right wing and not because you feel he's very reliable. Because he crossed the lines.” [08:09]

  • With former military leaders like Eisenkot entering the race, Bennett lacks a compelling reason for voters to support him.
  • Amit shares real-time poll results showing Eisenkot overtaking Bennett (26 to 19), signaling Bennett’s relevance in the race may be over.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the meaning of 1977’s “on the map”:

  “Tal Brody... said, we are on the map and we're staying on the map. Not only in basketball, but in everything... all of a sudden Israel looked like something else than a pariah state focusing on security and wars.”
  — Amit Segal [03:45]

• On Israeli coalition chaos:

  “Kingsmakers sometimes become the kings themselves.”
  — Amit Segal [05:30]

• On Bennett’s political fate:

  “The best way to commit a suicide is to jump from Bennett’s numbers in the polls to Bennett's real numbers in the ballots...”
  — Amit Segal [07:08]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:04–03:18 – Diaspora/Israel ties, Knicks comeback, and Maccabi Tel Aviv analogy
• 03:18–04:16 – 1977’s “on the map” moment and its modern resonance
• 04:16–06:59 – Potential Israeli electoral surprises: fall of Bennett, rise of Lieberman
• 06:59–09:00 – Why Bennett's support is collapsing; real-time polling insights

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Episode Tone & Language

The conversation is lively, analytical, and peppered with humor and historical analogies. Amit’s language is candid and data-driven, while Dan provides relatable bridges between Israeli and Diaspora experiences.

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For more in-depth discussion and to support independent analysis like this, listeners are invited to subscribe to the full Inside Call Me Back feed at arkmedia.org.

Transcript

[A]

You are listening to an art media podcast. Hi, it's Dan. Over the past couple of years, Call Me Back has grown into something much bigger than we ever expected. A place for clarity, context and honest conversations at a time when those things can seem hard to find. That's what ARC Media is all about. Building a truly independent voice, which means no one shaping what we say, we or how we say it. To help support our rapidly expanding operations, we created Inside Call Me Back our members only feed. If Call Me Back has been meaningful to you and you want to be part of what we're building, I hope you'll join us. Your contribution goes a long way in helping us show up when it matters most. You can subscribe@ark media.org or through the link in the Show Notes and to our insiders. Thank you. Welcome to the Inside edition of the CallMeBack podcast where we pull back the curtain and have the conversations we typically have after the cameras stop rolling. Thank you for subscribing to the show and supporting the Call Me Back podcast and everything we do here at Ark Media. It does mean a lot to us and it really does help us do what we do. And with that, today in the hot seat addressing your questions and personal dilemmas is ARK Media contributor Amit Segal. Amit hi Don. I want to start by saying that we spend a lot of time at Call Me Back on this idea of Jewish peoplehood. And a big part of Jewish peoplehood is Jews in the Diaspora feeling a deeper connection to Jews in Israel. But it's not a one way street. And here in New York City, which is, as I often say on this podcast, if Jerusalem is the capital of the state of Israel, New York City is the capital of the Diaspora. And we experienced something last night in New York City that historic, perhaps transformational. I can come up with all sorts of superlatives to talk about this New York Knicks team that came back from a 29 point deficit in one of the most cinematic, dramatic victories I have seen as a lifelong sports fan in any sport. And I have some apprehension about beginning this conversation with you because this is where my head is at, I have to admit.

[B]

I watched the game.

[A]

You watched the game.

[B]

I watched only the second half. Had I woken up earlier, I would have watched San Antonio's Best and then

[A]

you probably would have gone back to sleep because you would have said, what's the point of staying past halftime?

[B]

I'm the type of fan that goes to the parking lot if their team is not strong enough. So in halftime, yes, so I'm absolutely this.

[A]

Yeah, I watched the game with my son and one of his friends, an Israeli friend actually, who lives in New York. We watched the second half and my son and his buddy Uri, they get on city bikes at like whatever time. It was 11pm and they bike from our apartment to MSG to Madison Square Garden and they just said it was electric. I haven't seen anything like this. So Alon said to me last night, he said, the closest comparison, if you want an Israeli to understand this, was when Maccabi Tel Aviv won over Moscow in 1977.

[B]

Yeah, Maccabi won the best team of the Soviet Union. It was as if Israel would defeat China in the battlefield. It was unprecedented and it signaled, I think, a new Israel. It signals that something really dramatic happened. And so you remember this? No, it was five years before I was born.

[A]

But it's still iconic, right?

[B]

Sure.

[A]

And there was this famous phrase from that, this iconic phrase from that time on the map.

[B]

What was that about? So it was Tal Brody, an American born Jew basketball player, who said, we are on the map and we're staying on the map. Not only in basketball, but in everything. You know, four years after the Yom Kippur war and the isolation and the energy crisis. Sounds familiar, right? All of a sudden Israel looked like something else than a pariah state focusing on security and wars. Yeah, and we won at the same year we won the Eurovision as well for the first time.

[A]

Right. So you had a pop culture earthquake, you had a sports earthquake, and then you had a political earthquake all in one year. That's pretty wild. Anyways, now I'm going to jump into a whole bunch of questions, some of which are related to the upcoming elections. We have for you, Amit. The first is Maggie from Atlanta. What is an election surprise? No one is considering, but you are.

[B]

Okay, so to go back in time, I would tell you a few months ago that Bennett is going to dramatically lose ground. He is losing now 1.5 seats a week, which is 10,000 people a day, because people do not change parties on Shabbat. He would say to make it more dramatic, 400 vot leave him and he leave him every hour, 7 voters every minute, every 10 seconds. Bennett loses a voter. And for someone who had been leading in the polls for the last two years, it's even more dramatic. I think it's Eisencott versus Netanyahu. So this is one surprise, but it's already happening. The second thing I would say is that Lieberman might be the next prime minister of Israel. They get something like 6%, 7%. But yeah, we are all familiar with the president of Bennett becoming our prime minister with 5% of the popular vote, because in Israel, kingsmakers sometimes become the kings themselves. Right now, Lieberman is going to benefitize Bennett or Eisenhower and to tell them, look, I know your parties are way bigger than mine, but if you want to have a coalition, you must let me to be the Prime Minister. Because otherwise I'm going to join Netanyahu or to call a new election, because I'm on the. I mean, he's in a point in which he doesn't really care about a second round of election because he's quite stable. He has been quite stable over the last five or six election campaigns. He's somewhere between six to nine seats. So he doesn't really care. He can send everyone to another hell of a ride only to return with the same numbers. So I wrote this a month ago and I wrote it, I phrased it like this, that Lieberman got less than 1% on polymarket to become the next Prime Minister. Now, while I'm not convinced that he's going to be the next Prime Minister, I'm quite convinced that he should be way higher on polymarket. Why? Because of all of the explanation that I've just given. In a minute. He went up. It was published on Friday morning, and then he went up from less than 1% to 6.5 and he's still scoring around 4 or 5%, which means that I could have made a lot of money. But I'm quite convinced that Ligon's chances of becoming the next Prime Minister are somewhere around 10 to 20%, no less than this. And I would act to invest accordingly.

[A]

Wow. Okay. In a nutshell, Amit, can you just explain why you think Bennett has been experiencing this downward trajectory that you're describing?

[B]

There is a joke in Israel that the best way to commit a suicide is to jump from Bennett' numbers in the polls to Bennett's real numbers in the ballots, because he always scores very high in the polls. And then when election day comes in 2019, he failed to pass the threshold. In 2021, he led the polls for a very significant period of time, only to end up with seven seats out of 120. Why? Because he always have a hard time trying to explain his raison d'.

[A]

Etre.

[B]

He used to be to the right of Netanyahu, the hawkish version of Netanyahu. But at the end of the day, you cannot at the very same time be against Netanyahu and joining forces with him under his leadership the day after the election. So many people who wanted Netanyahu, including Bennett's father, voted for Netanyahu and not for Bennett. That was in the past. Nowadays his problem is more severe because he actually crossed the lines. Now he's part of the anti baby camp, anti baby opposition. Now if you are in the opposition and he wants to win to defeat Netanyahu, the only reason to vote for Bennett is not because of ideological reasons, because he's still part of the right wing and not because you feel he's very reliable. Because he crossed the lines. One time it was in your favor, next time it might be against your will. The only reason is because he's strong. But if Bennett is not strong enough, so there are many, many more tempting options. Eisencourt, a former IDF chief of staff so there is no incentive to vote for Bennett, save the fact that he is the frontrunner. If he's no longer the frontrunner. And according to a new, fresh new poll from two hours ago, Eisenkot surpassed him with 26 to 19. His give or take left was nothing.

[A]

That's it for our sneak peek today. If you want to catch the full episode, please subscribe to Inside. Call me back by following the link in the description or by going to ark media.org that's ark media.org your support is what allows us to do what we do here at Arc Media. I hope to see you there.