Sneak Peek: Amit on why Netanyahu’s Party is shrinking while Israelis shift to the right, and more…

Summary

Call Me Back with Dan Senor – Sneak Peek: Amit on Why Netanyahu’s Party is Shrinking While Israelis Shift to the Right, and More…

Date: August 1, 2026
Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Amit Segal, ARC Media Contributor

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Brief Overview

In this exclusive members-only sneak peek, host Dan Senor is joined by Israeli journalist Amit Segal to tackle pressing questions about Israel’s shifting political landscape since October 7th. The episode delves into why Netanyahu’s Likud party is shrinking in the polls despite an overall rightward shift among Israelis, the dynamics between major and minor right-wing parties, and the potential for unity or rotation governments in Israel’s future. The discussion further explores the political calculations of Benjamin Netanyahu and the significant influence of President Herzog in post-election negotiations and legal outcomes.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Likud’s Shrinking Popularity Amid a Rightward Shift (01:38)

• Polling Numbers: Mainstream polls show Likud at 22–23 seats, down from 32. Right-leaning channels show stronger numbers for Likud (28–32), but these may not be reliable.
• Main Reasons for Decline:
  • Disillusionment With Government Performance: "This government was a failure in terms of the ultra orthodox question, in terms of the inability to actually decisively win in each and every front and what I would call a Likud fatigue." (Amit Segal, 01:53)
  • Likud Fatigue: Prolonged incumbency since 2009 making voters tired of Netanyahu and his party.
  • Voter Expectations: "Maybe because they got used to the fact that Netanyahu always wins. Maybe because they don't want him to win anymore, and maybe because they are angry." (Amit Segal, 02:22)
• Historical Context: Reminds listeners that similar polling slumps before 2015 led to Netanyahu’s dramatic comeback, "So it's too early." (Amit Segal, 03:07)
• Electoral Strategy: "Netanyahu's main mission is ... to get out of their homes and go to vote." (Amit Segal, 03:14)

2. Movement from Major to Minor Right-Wing Parties (03:21)

• ‘Drinking Votes’ Phenomenon: In Israeli politics, major right-wing parties traditionally reclaim votes from minor parties closer to election day (“to drink”).
  • "A bigger party just sips the voters from the smaller parties." (Amit Segal, 03:37)
  • "You drink after you scream Gewald." (Amit Segal, 03:45)
• 2026 Outlook: Amit expresses skepticism that this dynamic will be as effective this time. The main challenge is motivating disillusioned Likud voters, not winning over voters for other rightwing factions.
• Netanyahu’s Response:
  • Revamping the Party List: "He won decisively in a vote... that allows him to personally select or nominate eight different candidates for the Likud list." (Amit Segal, 04:31)
  • Classic Campaign Methods: Attempting to galvanize right-wing turnout with warnings that “the left and the Arabs are going to take the country from you.” (Amit Segal, 05:03)
  • Early signs show it deterring voters from supporting rivals but it's unclear if turnout will increase.

3. Unity or Rotation Government Scenarios (05:21)

• Unity Government vs. Rotation: Listener asks if a rotation is plausible between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, with Eisenkot leading first.
• Netanyahu’s Language: Prefers the term “broad national government” over “unity government,” signaling recognition that his narrow rightwing coalition is less viable.
• Possible Post-Election Outcomes:
  • Imbalanced results may force coalition or new elections.
  • Rotation government is plausible if neither bloc wins a clear majority.
• Netanyahu’s Preferences:
  • "As a general rule, Netanyahu would always prefer another round of election as long as he is the sitting prime minister." (Amit Segal, 06:27)
    • Being the incumbent allows him to retain power during transition periods, even if only notionally ("70% prime minister").
    • Only a clear, heavy defeat might force Netanyahu to accept second place in a rotation.

4. Criminal Proceedings and Political Immunity (07:21)

• Legal Considerations in Rotation: Listener notes the conventional wisdom that Netanyahu won’t risk being second in a rotation since he would lose immunity from prosecution.
• Amit’s Take:
  • "So many things have been said... and it all proved wrong." (Amit Segal, 07:55)
  • President Herzog could play a pivotal post-election role—granting coalition mandates, offering pardons, mediating judicial reforms.
• Herzog’s Three Roles Post-Election: (08:06)
  • 1. Deciding who forms the coalition.
  • 2. Legal ability to pardon politicians.
  • 3. Mediating between blocs on judicial reform.
• Strategic Pardon: Herzog may be delaying any pardon for Netanyahu until political outcomes crystallize, using it as leverage during coalition talks.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Likud Fatigue:
  “Likud has been around in office since 2009 and with another punctuation since 1996. So it makes sense that people are quite tired and that they still haven't found any reason to rush into the ballots in droves.” – Amit Segal (02:09)

• On Israeli Election Dynamics:
  “You drink after you scream Gewald.” – Amit Segal (03:45)
  (Refers to the tactic where large parties warn of impending defeat to rally votes from smaller allies.)

• On Netanyahu’s Motivations:
  “Netanyahu would always prefer another round of election as long as he is the sitting prime minister… he’s 70% prime minister, but nonetheless he’s still there controlling the agenda.” – Amit Segal (06:27)

• On President Herzog’s Potential Role:
  “The day after the election might see Herzog, President Herzog, orchestrating his last symphony. And the symphony is to be both playing the violin, playing the piano, and playing the guitar.” – Amit Segal (07:55)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:38 – Analysis of Likud’s dip in the polls and causes
• 03:21 – Voter movement between parties and 'drinking' concept
• 04:31 – Netanyahu's strategy to rejuvenate the Likud list
• 05:21 – Discussion of unity and rotation government possibilities
• 06:27 – Netanyahu’s approach to political survival post-election
• 07:21 – Legal immunity, indictments, and the role of President Herzog

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Summary

This episode provides an insider’s look at the current dilemmas facing Israeli politics, with a sharp focus on coalition dynamics, the fate of Likud, and Netanyahu’s evolving strategies. Amit Segal brings historical perspective, political analysis, and candid insights about the personalities and structures at play. For listeners curious about how Israel’s upcoming elections could reshape not just one party, but the entire system, this episode is a concise yet deep primer on why history may rhyme, even if it rarely repeats.

Transcript

[A]

Over the past couple of years, Call Me Back has grown into something much bigger than we ever expected. A place for clarity, context, and honest conversations at a time when those things can seem hard to find. That's what ARC Media is all about. Building a truly independent voice, which means no one shaping what we say or how we say it. To help support our rapidly expanding operations, we created Inside Call Me Back our members only feed. If Call Me Back has been meaningful to you and you want to be part of what we're building, I hope you'll join us. You can subscribe@arc media.org or through the link in the show Notes and to our insiders. Thank you. You are listening to an arc media podcast. Welcome to Inside Call Me Back, our Members Only edition where we open the door and let you shape the convers conversation Today in the hot seat, addressing your questions and personal dilemmas is ARC Media contributor Amit Segal. Okay, let's jump into our questions from our subscribers here. The first is from ellie from Hoboken, New Jersey who writes hi Dan and team love the show. First time caller, quote unquote. My question since October 7th, while Israelis have moved quite strongly to the right, Netanyahu's Likud Party is polling at around 22 seats, shrinking down from the existing 32. What is the single biggest reason for that?

[B]

Okay, so first of all, 2221 seats, 23 is give or take the average on the mainstream media polls. We still have to bear in mind that on channel 14 and channel 24, the right leaning channels, Netanyahu enjoys something between 28 and 32. If Netanyahu is actually polling around 22, the main reason is disillusioned voters who think that this government was a failure in terms of the ultra orthodox question, in terms of the inability to actually decisively win in each and every front and what I would call a Likud fatigue. Which means that with one exception, for a year and a half, Likud has been around in office since 2009 and with another punctuation since 1996. So it makes sense that people are quite tired and that they still haven't found any reason to rush into the ballots in droves. Why? Because maybe because they got used to the fact that Netanyahu always wins. Maybe because they don't want him to win anymore, and maybe because they are angry. I would offer to be quite cautious about the number because 90 days prior to the 2015 election, Netanyahu scored around the very same number and the atmosphere was very dark and There was a lot of bitterness in the air and it ended up with Netanyahu's most dramatic victory in the current century. So it's too early. But Netanyahu's main mission is not to talk Likud voters into not voting for Eisenkot, but to talk to them to get out of their homes and go to vote.

[A]

Okay. And if right wing voters are moving away from Likud, Amit, this relates to all the major parties. When there's like a bleed from a major party, to the extent the bleed is attracted to these smaller parties, as you get closer and closer to the election, there's a reversion to the major parties.

[B]

In Hebrew, you call it to drink. Means that a bigger party just sips the voters from the smaller parties.

[A]

I see.

[B]

Got it in its block. It's called in Israel to drink. And you drink after you scream Gewald. Okay, so you're shrinking, you're screaming Gewald. And then you drink. The smaller parties, that's how it used to work. I think it's going to be less effective than usual. I think that the main source of possible votes for Netanyahu is not voters who plan on voting for Eisencourt or Bennett or Ben Gavir or Smalltridge, but Likud voters who are disillusioned, don't see a difference dramatic enough in order to make them go and vote again for the figures that they don't like, to say the least, from within Likud. And Netanyahu tries to solve the problem by two means. One mean is to change the Likud list. He won decisively in a vote, in a crucial vote in the Likud Central Committee two days ago that allows him to personally select or nominate eight different candidates for the Likud list. He wants a better Likud and improved liquid and Likud with Botox or a plastic surgery, because 8 out of 30 is quite a lot. And the second way is the old good way of trying to say that if you do not come to vote, so the left and the Arabs are going to take the country from you. And that's Netanyahu's main campaign. It hasn't worked so far in increasing the electoral power of Likud, but it shows signs of success in deterring right wing voters from electing Eisenkot. So it's too early to call, but it looks as if something is happening there.

[A]

Jonathan from London writes. Hi, Dan. My question is for Amit and a dove. Netanyahu seems to be aiming for a unity government do you see a scenario in which a unity government is formed, but that Netanyahu lets Eisenhat lead for the first two years?

[B]

Okay, so Netanyahu insists on not saying a unity government, but he selected a different term, a broad national government, which means that he understands that the narrow right wing coalition is not something very attractive comes October. And that's why he believes that if the contradiction is between Eisenhower in a narrow center left Arab government and Netanyahu in a broader government, it necessarily means that he's going to enjoy the most of the support of the swing voters. I think you are speaking about something else which is a rotation government. Right? It can happen. In my opinion. It makes a lot of sense. According to most of the polls, if none of the blocs get 61 sets, it necessarily means that they are going to face either very bad alternatives like a new round of election or a government that heavily leans on anti Zionist Arab parties, or to go and join and form a rotation government. So the question whether Netanyahu is going to let Eisenhower be the first Prime Minister depends. It heavily depends on the results. As a general, general rule, Netanyahu would would always prefer another round of election as long as he is the sitting prime minister. Because according to the Israeli law, if there is another round of election without any government being formed, it necessarily means that the sitting prime minister, that the incumbent incumbent is or stays as the Prime Minister in a transition government. He's 70% prime minister, but nonetheless he's still there controlling the agenda, having all the knowledge about state secrets, etc. Unless Netanyahu's defeat is so heavy that he has no other choice but to actually let Eisenhower be the first.

[A]

Okay, but there's this line that we constantly hear that the reason Netanyahu, even if they did work out a rotation arrangement, let's just say Netanyahu Nisenkat worked at a rotational arrangement. Why Netanyahu would never agree to not be the first of the rotation is because it would mean in the very near future he was not the sitting prime minister, assuming he's the second in the rotation. And without being the sitting Prime Minister, he does not have the immunity from the legal proceedings advancing that he does have as the sitting prime minister. And that's why he would never agree to that.

[B]

By the way.

[A]

I'm just saying, I hear this all the time.

[B]

So many things have been said about the relationship between the criminal indictments and the political system and it all proved wrong. I think that the day after the election might see Herzog President, Herzog orchestrating his last symphony. And the symphony is to be both playing the violin, playing the piano, and playing the guitar. President Herzog might be there in three capacities. One capacity is the one, according to the Israeli law, that decides who is going to form the coalition, who gets the opportunity, second, as the one who has the legal ability to pardon someone, and third, as the one who negotiate or try to negotiate, failed to negotiate between the two camps with regards to their judicial reform. Now, I think the reason Herzog hasn't replied yet to Netanyahu's request to be pardoned is because he's waiting for after the election. And he says as follows. If Netanyahu is defeated, so it's no longer a problem of the politician Netanyahu, the prime minister Netanyahu, it's a problem of the citizen Netanyahu. So it's not problem anymore. It's a personal problem. Second, if Netanyahu gets an outright majority, it means that he's going to end this trial one way or the other, he's going to replace the attorney general, et cetera. But if both sides fall short of an outright majority, it necessarily means that I will be there. So I will be able to tell Eisenhower, you want to be the prime minister, you want me to give you the opportunity to form a coalition, so please support me in paddling in Netanyahu after a year and A half, or Mr. Netanyahu, you want me to give you to form the coalition, so please make concessions in the judicial reform, et cetera, et cetera.

[A]

That's it for our sneak peek today. If you want to catch the full episode, please subscribe to Inside. Call me back by following the link in the description or by going to ark media.org that's ark media.org your support is what allows us to do what we do here at Ark Media.

[B]

I hope to see you there, Sam.